Roster Speculation Part XI...$teven $tamko$?? Pony up for PK?

[stokes84]

Thoughts on Nathan B from Habs? Seems like they are looking at options for him. Young left handed D in the age range we would be looking for? Ennis+ 2nd rounder for him?

That's an awful lot to give up for a player on the outs. A healthy Ennis has more value straight up.

 

[Husko]

Neither

Kane
Girgensons
Moulson
Deslauriers

All are LWers ATM. If you are talking "independent of age, cost, and contract status", I'd probably go with McGinn as he's a little more versatile and consistent.

However, given Foligno's age, RFA status, and lesser cost, I'd go with Foligno IF we were keeping one.

How do you figure?

 

[Ace]

i wonder if Murray has brought something like 2yrs/$8m to McGinn & his agent. They'd still be taking a risk that somebody would offer him more July 1. As we've seen and has been brought up around here, there are always going to be 'value' vets ala Stempniak GM's might prefer to go after. Taking that guaranteed money and hitting UFA again in 2 years might actually be in his best interest vs rolling the dice 7/1. I dont think its a slam dunk somebody will offer him 4/16, although I guess it only takes 1 GM to go there.

I think it's quite likely that's exactly what he did. In his last war interview I don't think he chose his words poorly when he said that his agent had told them what they're looking for in money and term...and he let the agent know what he thought about term.

They don't want to get stuck with a long term deal...and McGinn as at the point of his career where security is the most important. Abdelkater locking up 6! Years doesn't help. Either he decides to take the shorter deal here...or all the local media can publish their angry manifestos about how the team doesn't want to win now...while ignoring the goal of sustained winning later.

There's also the problem of...he's not all that good. A short term deal that lets him play in the top 6 is ideal because if we truly want to be great in the future Jaime McGinn isn't in your top 6. If you put him on the third line his production isn't going to be worth any contract you give him.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[EichHart]

That's an awful lot to give up for a player on the outs. A healthy Ennis has more value straight up.

I'm not sure a top 4 blooming LH D is more valuable than a top 6 winger.

 

[Reddawg]

I'm not sure a top 4 blooming LH D is more valuable than a top 6 winger.

I'm not sure Beaulieu is a blooming top 4 LHD. If he was, I'm not sure why Montreal would be eager to deal him, or why Habs fans are always rolling him into trade offers.

 

[t800rad]

General question. Say we get a pick in the 9-12 range. Is Murray holding onto specific players to move up for Chychrun or a Finn, or do we pull the trigger on trades that pop up now, before the deadline, and make the lower pick?

 

[Jacob582]

General question. Say we get a pick in the 9-12 range. Is Murray holding onto specific players to move up for Chychrun or a Finn, or do we pull the trigger on trades that pop up now, before the deadline, and make the lower pick?

I doubt teams are trading the high picks to be able to take a Finn.

 

[TehDoak]

General question. Say we get a pick in the 9-12 range. Is Murray holding onto specific players to move up for Chychrun or a Finn, or do we pull the trigger on trades that pop up now, before the deadline, and make the lower pick?

It's pretty unlikely we pick that high.

Looking at the standings, there's two groupings outside of the playoffs:

The bottom 6 (49 pts -53 pts) Toronto, Buffalo, Columbus, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary
The "bubble" teams (56 pts - 64 pts) Vancouver, Ottawa, Arizona, Minnesota, NJ, Philly, Montreal, Carolina.

Of the bubble teams, you'll likely see sell offs from Montreal, Ottawa, and Vancouver. and maybe Philly?.

But, I don't see many teams dropping into that bottom 6.

So, for Buffalo to finish in the 9-12 range, we'd have to drop back to 6-8th somewhere, AND have 3 teams jump us in the lotto (highly unlikely)

The safest bet is probably 5-7 range, where we should be able to grab one of the d-men.

 

[t800rad]

It's pretty unlikely we pick that high.

Looking at the standings, there's two groupings outside of the playoffs:

The bottom 6 (49 pts -53 pts) Toronto, Buffalo, Columbus, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary
The "bubble" teams (56 pts - 64 pts) Vancouver, Ottawa, Arizona, Minnesota, NJ, Philly, Montreal, Carolina.

Of the bubble teams, you'll likely see sell offs from Montreal, Ottawa, and Vancouver. and maybe Philly?.

But, I don't see many teams dropping into that bottom 6.

So, for Buffalo to finish in the 9-12 range, we'd have to drop back to 6-8th somewhere, AND have 3 teams jump us in the lotto (highly unlikely)

The safest bet is probably 5-7 range, where we should be able to grab one of the d-men.

That sums it up well then. I'm slowly getting a handle on the rankings and draft order. Thanks.

 

[Reddawg]

It doesn't matter where we finish in the order...we're winning the lottery. It's our year.

 

[Myllz]

We're winning the lottery this year, so it makes little difference.

Edit: DAMNIT

 

[Zman5778]

It's pretty unlikely we pick that high.

Looking at the standings, there's two groupings outside of the playoffs:

The bottom 6 (49 pts -53 pts) Toronto, Buffalo, Columbus, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary
The "bubble" teams (56 pts - 64 pts) Vancouver, Ottawa, Arizona, Minnesota, NJ, Philly, Montreal, Carolina.

Of the bubble teams, you'll likely see sell offs from Montreal, Ottawa, and Vancouver. and maybe Philly?.

But, I don't see many teams dropping into that bottom 6.

So, for Buffalo to finish in the 9-12 range, we'd have to drop back to 6-8th somewhere, AND have 3 teams jump us in the lotto (highly unlikely)

The safest bet is probably 5-7 range, where we should be able to grab one of the d-men.

I'm of kind of the opposite mindset with your assessment. I think most of the "bubble" teams will do a sell off, as well as the current bottom 6.

Buffalo has the least of actual value to sell, our schedule gets easier AND we're playing better than most of the 12 teams you listed.

I don't think it's a stretch at all to think we vault into the 8-10 range by playing better and passing teams that stink more.

 

[Djp]

General question. Say we get a pick in the 9-12 range. Is Murray holding onto specific players to move up for Chychrun or a Finn, or do we pull the trigger on trades that pop up now, before the deadline, and make the lower pick?

there is no way you can trade up from 9-12 to 2-3. If you do you will be sacrificing a player you don't want to give up.

Buffalo could be more willing to trade down if they deceided they wanted to go down a few and pick a Dman. Say they are 2 and trade down to 4 and collect something else (high 2nd)

It's pretty unlikely we pick that high.

Looking at the standings, there's two groupings outside of the playoffs:

The bottom 6 (49 pts -53 pts) Toronto, Buffalo, Columbus, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary
The "bubble" teams (56 pts - 64 pts) Vancouver, Ottawa, Arizona, Minnesota, NJ, Philly, Montreal, Carolina.

Of the bubble teams, you'll likely see sell offs from Montreal, Ottawa, and Vancouver. and maybe Philly?.

But, I don't see many teams dropping into that bottom 6.

So, for Buffalo to finish in the 9-12 range, we'd have to drop back to 6-8th somewhere, AND have 3 teams jump us in the lotto (highly unlikely)

The safest bet is probably 5-7 range, where we should be able to grab one of the d-men.

I would put them in 3 groups....

bottom 4: Toronto, Buffalo, Columbus, Edmonton,
could be out: Montreal, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Calgary
playoff bubble: Colorado, Nashville, Minnesota, Arizona, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Carolina, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh

I don't know other teams, but Buffalo has a weaker finishing schedule from March 1st on --- only 4 are against teams not in the list ( @NYR, NYR, @NYI, @DET). The rest are against teams I listed above.

Their remaining 5 games in February--3 are not on the list (LA, SJ, and ANA).

There is a chance Buffalo could end up in that 7-10 range. Part of the reason Buffalo wants to play better while some of their opponents who are falling short of the playoffs tend to check out and quit. the harder games would be against those who are truly still in the fight for the final playoff spot or those already in.

they are in 4th now and 5 points back of OTT and MON (same # games played) so if they were to overtake them that would put them in 6th place pre lottery so then they could end up in that 7-10 range.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Not necessarily and I don't agree with this statement.

Just because you slot guys down a lower pairing doesn't mean their poor decisions, terrible skating, and just overall bad play goes away. Does it help them when it's matchups vs other lines, yes, but in terms of actual hockey play, it doesn't "fix" players. They still have those limitations, regardless how well the other player covers up for them, and when away from that partner those limitations are usually magnified again.

IMO, There's maybe two guys who I want on the backend when we are contending; Pysyk & Risto.

Bogosian can play. Come on. He isn't a top pair, but as 2nd pair or 3rd pair he is fine.

Our right side is set. Find a #2 guy that can play with Ristolainen and then fill in the rest.

xxxx - Ristolainen
xxxx - Pysyk
xxxx - Bogosian

 

[old kummelweck]

It's pretty unlikely we pick that high.

Looking at the standings, there's two groupings outside of the playoffs:

The bottom 6 (49 pts -53 pts) Toronto, Buffalo, Columbus, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary
The "bubble" teams (56 pts - 64 pts) Vancouver, Ottawa, Arizona, Minnesota, NJ, Philly, Montreal, Carolina.

Of the bubble teams, you'll likely see sell offs from Montreal, Ottawa, and Vancouver. and maybe Philly?.

But, I don't see many teams dropping into that bottom 6.

So, for Buffalo to finish in the 9-12 range, we'd have to drop back to 6-8th somewhere, AND have 3 teams jump us in the lotto (highly unlikely)

The safest bet is probably 5-7 range, where we should be able to grab one of the d-men.

I think Murray would like to be in the top 5, if not the top 3. I don't think he's interested in pursuing #1 unless they win the lottery, otherwise, he'll be trying to get there and will be drafting a winger if he does.

Anything after 5 is more likely a D man as you said.

 

[old kummelweck]

there is no way you can trade up from 9-12 to 2-3. If you do you will be sacrificing a player you don't want to give up.

Buffalo could be more willing to trade down if they deceided they wanted to go down a few and pick a Dman. Say they are 2 and trade down to 4 and collect something else (high 2nd)



I would put them in 3 groups....

bottom 4: Toronto, Buffalo, Columbus, Edmonton,
could be out: Montreal, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Calgary
playoff bubble: Colorado, Nashville, Minnesota, Arizona, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Carolina, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh

I don't know other teams, but Buffalo has a weaker finishing schedule from March 1st on --- only 4 are against teams not in the list ( @NYR, NYR, @NYI, @DET). The rest are against teams I listed above.

Their remaining 5 games in February--3 are not on the list (LA, SJ, and ANA).

There is a chance Buffalo could end up in that 7-10 range. Part of the reason Buffalo wants to play better while some of their opponents who are falling short of the playoffs tend to check out and quit. the harder games would be against those who are truly still in the fight for the final playoff spot or those already in.

they are in 4th now and 5 points back of OTT and MON (same # games played) so if they were to overtake them that would put them in 6th place pre lottery so then they could end up in that 7-10 range.

I'm wondering if Boston is a seller too. They have Ericksson pending UFA and he would be at the top of the heap for forwards available at the deadline to a contender. That team is so screwed up right now.

 

[Ace]

I want a big winger or a LHD in the draft. Luckily it looks to me like 4-11 is littered with them if we don't win a lot to spot.

 

[Mattilaus]

Say we did end up in the 9-12 pick range. Do we have the assets to move up to get one of the good D? So not trading to get into the top 3 but getting in the 4-7 range to get Chychrun or Juolevi?

Edit: NVM, reading some sites it looks like Juolevi could possibly be had in the 9-12 range

 

[EichHart]

Say we did end up in the 9-12 pick range. Do we have the assets to move up to get one of the good D? So not trading to get into the top 3 but getting in the 4-7 range to get Chychrun or Juolevi?

Edit: NVM, reading some sites it looks like Juolevi could possibly be had in the 9-12 range

2013- #1 D
2014- #2 C
2015- #1 C
2016- #1 W/#2 D

We're in a perfect spot for our draft position.

 

[BananaSquad]

I want a big winger or a LHD in the draft. Luckily it looks to me like 4-11 is littered with them if we don't win a lot to spot.

Tkachuk or Chychrun

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Our only hope is if we don't end up finishing 30th that at bare minimum 2 of the 3 lotto picks are won by teams who finished lower then us. I desperately want a top 5 pick. I would be jumping for joy if we got one of Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Chychrun or Tkachuk. It seems those 5 are the clear "elite" prospect tier. That's 4 franchise forwards and a franchise D. All fill a huge need and would instantly become one of our "cup winning core" along with Eichel, Reinhart, Risto and RoR.

 

[Uberpecker]

If we could trade upside for development and get a guy like Hanifin with our 1st this year, I'd do it.
Opens the window sooner than a draft pick likely would and solves the Risto partner issue.
As for the winger, I don't think it's that big of an issue. Contenders usually at some point get lucky with one of their mid- to late-rounders and we have a bunch of lottery tickets in the pipeline already (Bailey, Fasching, Hurley, Baptiste...).

Two trades:

Buf 2016 1st for Hanifin
Ennis for Wiercioch, Prince, 3rd

Kane/Prince ROR Reinhart
Girgensons Acorn xxx
Kane/Prince Larsson Foligno
D-lo Legwand/Schaller yyy

Hanifin Ristolainen
Gorges/McCabe Pysyk
Wiercioch/Weber Bogosian

Lehner
Ullmark/Johnson

xxx and yyy are either FA signings or from our pipeline (Fasching, Bailey, Carrier,...)

 

[Myllz]

If we could trade upside for development and get a guy like Hanifin with our 1st this year, I'd do it.
Opens the window sooner than a draft pick likely would and solves the Risto partner issue.
As for the winger, I don't think it's that big of an issue. Contenders usually at some point get lucky with one of their mid- to late-rounders and we have a bunch of lottery tickets in the pipeline already (Bailey, Fasching, Hurley, Baptiste...).

Two trades:

Buf 2016 1st for Hanifin
Ennis for Wiercioch, Prince, 3rd

Kane/Prince ROR Reinhart
Girgensons Acorn xxx
Kane/Prince Larsson Foligno
D-lo Legwand/Schaller yyy

Hanifin Ristolainen
Gorges/McCabe Pysyk
Wiercioch/Weber Bogosian

Lehner
Ullmark/Johnson

xxx and yyy are either FA signings or from our pipeline (Fasching, Bailey, Carrier,...)

Why would Carolina trade their #5 pick from last year for another first round picl this year?

 

[Matt Ress]

I think HF Duck fan's sentiments regarding their LHD don't reflect real life. No matter how many times I read their reasons to keep all of them, it's just not plausible.