Roster Speculation 2017-18 Part 3

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sincerity0

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Dec 23, 2016
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Goalies are both overvalued and undervalued but first of all, you can't count on a guy like Murray exploding in the AHL and then bringing you a Cup or even a deep playoff run. There aren't many Murray/Patrick Roy/Ken Dryden types out there. Just because it happened with teams before doesn't mean it will.
Secondly, how many teams may have made the playoffs this year with average goaltending? Dallas? Winnipeg? Calgary almost lost their season until Elliott started playing better. So you need a good goalie. If you have one you don't have to overpay but you can't just keep thinking you just keep rolling out guys on entry-level contracts and spend everywhere else.

We are arguing for the same thing. The only difference is I think you are taking the term "premium" to mean overpaying. That is not what I am advocating for.

The "premium" I am referencing is simply the cost difference between paying a guy like Chad Johnson or Nilsson in FA to start vs X starting goalie who provides above avg goaltending at $5m-$5.5/yr.

A good team needs to keep their Crawfords, MAF, ...etc until they find someone who can do it cheaper or for better value.

The point that teams just can't keep rolling out guys on ELCs is the exact reason why I'm saying there is a worthwhile premium to be paid if you can get a solidified starter at around $4-6m a year when your team is trying to contend.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
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I'm not advocating for paying $7m a year for a "good" goalie. I'm saying that having a proven player (at any position) can be worth a premium. If a younger, cheaper, and possibly better player comes along in the prospect pool by all means replace the he costlier vet.

Sign Lehner to a 2-3 year bridge deal, $4m per, and if we get Ullmark, Johansson, or Peterson to outperform that contract then move out Lehner. It's not a difficult concept to grasp. Good teams do it all the time. The key is to not sign a goalie to a long term, big money contract unless they are Price.

I think we are in agreement with this approach.

Personally, I think Lehner is good enough to roll with on a short term deal for around $4M per or less.
 

joshjull

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Aug 2, 2005
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When Chicago won their first cup, Niemi was making $800k. They let Niemi walk that offseason instead of paying his arbitration award. It was the year before they won where they had over $11M locked up in two goalies (Huet and Khabibulin).

Thanks for the clarification. I was drawing a blank on Khabby.
 

Dingo44

We already won the trade
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Jul 21, 2015
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We are arguing for the same thing. The only difference is I think you are taking the term "premium" to mean overpaying. That is not what I am advocating for.

The "premium" I am referencing is simply the cost difference between paying a guy like Chad Johnson or Nilsson in FA to start vs X starting goalie who provides above avg goaltending at $5m-$5.5/yr.

A good team needs to keep their Crawfords, MAF, ...etc until they find someone who can do it cheaper or for better value.

The point that teams just can't keep rolling out guys on ELCs is the exact reason why I'm saying there is a worthwhile premium to be paid if you can get a solidified starter at around $4-6m a year when your team is trying to contend.

Yeah, reading your post after mine, I think we're pretty much in the same camp. :nod:
 

Rasmus CacOlainen

The end of the Tank
Sep 24, 2015
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Top 10 lol

Would be great if we can somehow get competent Top 4 D for him. I never believed we would but there seems to be interest in him, question is what are teams prepared to give up for him and what do the interested teams have available for trade (I can't imagine there would be too many interested teams).
 

Push Dr Tracksuit

Gerstmann 3:16
Jun 9, 2012
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I find it incredibly odd either the Pens or Hawks would be used as examples of why you don't give goalies big contracts unless they are Carey Price.

If you are comparing anything to Pitt it better be "this is what happens when you have arguably the 2 best centers in hockey"

and if you're comparing anything to Chi it better involve "this is what happens when you are allowed to hang onto a handful of cap circumventing contracts"

the last decade has been dominated by the luckiest consecutive drafts in modern nhl history, and a pair of teams who capitalized on a very tiny window of cap loopholes
 

Satanphonehome

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Jan 4, 2015
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Last season he cost us 8 points because of his shootout woes.

Lehner only played in four shootouts, so the most points he could have "cost us" was four.

In his four shootout losses, prior to going to the shootout, he stopped:
28 of 29 shots versus Ottawa
23 of 24 shots versus Detroit
36 of 39 shots versus Florida
31 of 32 shots versus Tampa

That's a GAA of 1.38 and a SP of .952

In those four shootouts, Sabre skaters scored twice in 10 attempts.

Are you sure Lehner cost us points?
Are you sure it wasn't our shooters?
 

Sabre the Win

Joke of a Franchise
Jun 27, 2013
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Lehner only played in four shootouts, so the most points he could have "cost us" was four.

In his four shootout losses, prior to going to the shootout, he stopped:
28 of 29 shots versus Ottawa
23 of 24 shots versus Detroit
36 of 39 shots versus Florida
31 of 32 shots versus Tampa

That's a GAA of 1.38 and a SP of .952

In those four shootouts, Sabre skaters scored twice in 10 attempts.

Are you sure Lehner cost us points?
Are you sure it wasn't our shooters?
I had to go back and look but we went to 8 shootouts this season and won 2.that means we lost out on 6 points.
 

dotcommunism

Moderator
Aug 16, 2007
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Lehner's never been outstanding in shootouts but it's really ridiculous just how much weight people are placing on a single season that's an obvious extreme outlier.
 

Aladyyn

they praying for the death of a rockstar
Apr 6, 2015
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Lehner only played in four shootouts, so the most points he could have "cost us" was four.

In his four shootout losses, prior to going to the shootout, he stopped:
28 of 29 shots versus Ottawa
23 of 24 shots versus Detroit
36 of 39 shots versus Florida
31 of 32 shots versus Tampa

That's a GAA of 1.38 and a SP of .952

In those four shootouts, Sabre skaters scored twice in 10 attempts.

Are you sure Lehner cost us points?
Are you sure it wasn't our shooters?

So you're saying in the 4 SO losses "caused" by Lehner, the Sabres scored 6 goals in regulation? Well then that definitely has to be Lehner's fault.
 

Ace

Registered User
Oct 29, 2015
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Lehner only played in four shootouts, so the most points he could have "cost us" was four.

In his four shootout losses, prior to going to the shootout, he stopped:
28 of 29 shots versus Ottawa
23 of 24 shots versus Detroit
36 of 39 shots versus Florida
31 of 32 shots versus Tampa

That's a GAA of 1.38 and a SP of .952

In those four shootouts, Sabre skaters scored twice in 10 attempts.

Are you sure Lehner cost us points?
Are you sure it wasn't our shooters?

Shooters for Buffalo scored a grand total of...zero shootout goals with Lehner in net.

And three of those four games he arguably stole a point just getting to OT rather than lost them one.

But it doesn't matter. They gave up pick 21 for a quality starting goalie and that sin is unforgivable.

Pick 21...home to such elite talents as Mark Jankowski, Stefan Noesen and Anton Gustafsson.

You can see why he must be hated.
 

Rasmus CacOlainen

The end of the Tank
Sep 24, 2015
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Europe
Shooters for Buffalo scored a grand total of...zero shootout goals with Lehner in net.

And three of those four games he arguably stole a point just getting to OT rather than lost them one.

But it doesn't matter. They gave up pick 21 for a quality starting goalie and that sin is unforgivable.

Pick 21...home to such elite talents as Mark Jankowski, Stefan Noesen and Anton Gustafsson.

You can see why he must be hated.

No one can hate Lehner for what Buffalo has given up to acquire him. This is not his problem. However, I can hate him when he plays subpar and then acts like a primadonna even on the ice (can't imagine what he's like in the dressing room...) regarding his teammates. Not a fan, likely will never be even if he stays. But if hes does, I pray he proves me and others that don't like him wrong.
 
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