Roster Speculation 2017-18 Part 3

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haseoke39

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Mar 29, 2011
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These 2 things are not close in value.

Depends on the player. When I say top 4 upside, I'm thinking about a guy who isn't there yet but has some potential. When I say top 9 winger, I'm thinking about a guy with real scoring capability, not another Foligno. There's some substantial overlap in value there.
 

Sabresfansince1980

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I'd still protect O'Reilly, Kane, Okposo, Foligno, Gigensons, Larsson, Carrier, Ristolainen, McCabe, Bogosian, and Lehner. Falk has almost no risk of being selected with all the D-men that LV will have to pick from. The only real risk is losing Ullmark, and I won't guess what LV might require to take another player, but I wouldn't be unhappy to lose a 3rd or 4th pick. A 2nd or better is where I draw the line. LV can't take all cheap contracts anyway, they have to have some high cap hits. My bet is they take Ennis or Moulson, and maybe this simply comes down to what Moulson wants given the family connection with McPhee.
 

dkollidas

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I'd still protect O'Reilly, Kane, Okposo, Foligno, Gigensons, Larsson, Carrier, Ristolainen, McCabe, Bogosian, and Lehner. Falk has almost no risk of being selected with all the D-men that LV will have to pick from. The only real risk is losing Ullmark, and I won't guess what LV might require to take another player, but I wouldn't be unhappy to lose a 3rd or 4th pick. A 2nd or better is where I draw the line. LV can't take all cheap contracts anyway, they have to have some high cap hits. My bet is they take Ennis or Moulson, and maybe this simply comes down to what Moulson wants given the family connection with McPhee.

I wouldn't mind losing a 2nd rounder if it means we get Moulson or Ennis taken off our hands. We have solid young wing prospects and it, along with the expiration of Gorges contract, will give us enough room to sign Eichel/Reinhart and comfortably make some other additions as well. Then you'd be set up with the other contract (of Moulson/Ennis) expiring one year later, giving cap space, and Bogosians contract expiring a year after that giving us some more room as well. To me losing one of Moulson/Ennis via expansion is key.
 

Djp

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Lehner is a choker. His complete ineptitude in the shootout is the easiest example of this, but there were tons of examples outside of the shootout that show this. Tie game late in the 3rd period with Lehner in net was a guaranteed loss.


Cite the actual record???
 

Sabre the Win

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There is a thread in the trade rumors on Lehner where people are picking him apart with actual data and numbers. He is not who you think he is.
 
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La Cosa Nostra

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Check back in 5 years and ser what 22-25 drafted players become.

Historically. 21-25 is a crap shoot in getting anything that is top line/top pair.

Usually you get a 3/4 Dman or middle line player.

Lehner has not been that bad. Complaining g about shootouts is ludicrous....the team should not have gotten to shootout if the scored more.

The difference was that's 2015 was an elite draft, so #21 in that draft would be a player that would be a top 10 pick in virtually every other draft. 2015 was one of the best drafts in the last 20 years, right up there with 2003,2008 and 2013. The guys who we could have drafted at #21 are high end prospects/young proven NHL players like Konecny.

Let's put it this way, we finished bottom 8 both years we had Lehner on this team. Who would you rather have long term as our goalie? 26 year old Lehner who has proven he isn't a high end starter or arguably the best goalie prospect in the league or at the very worst a top 3 goalie prospect in Ilya Samsonov.

Sabres should have just rolled with a 1a/1b platoon the last two years with a cheap goalie like Nilsson and then Ullmark or another Nilsson type goalie while drafting Samsonov at #21. Samsonov is ready to take the reins within the next 2 years. Oh well, that's what Buffalo gets for hiring Timmy Murray who wants "HIS" guys, Tim Murray gets who Tim Murray wants, regardless of cost.:shakehead

Not a single non Sabre fan would rather have Robin Lehner then Ilya Samsonov.


Things also worthy of the 21st pick:

Renting Paul Gaustad.

Too bad the 2012 draft was straight garbage. Actually pretty comparable to this upcoming draft. The prospects available at #21 in 2015 are easily top 10 picks in the 2012 draft, just like they would be in this draft. Guys like Konecny,Boeser, Roslovic, White etc are easily top 3-8 picks in 2017.
 

Ace

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The difference was that's 2015 was an elite draft, so #21 in that draft would be a player that would be a top 10 pick in virtually every other draft. 2015 was one of the best drafts in the last 20 years, right up there with 2003,2008 and 2013. The guys who we could have drafted at #21 are high end prospects/young proven NHL players like Konecny.

Let's put it this way, we finished bottom 8 both years we had Lehner on this team. Who would you rather have long term as our goalie? 26 year old Lehner who has proven he isn't a high end starter or arguably the best goalie prospect in the league or at the very worst a top 3 goalie prospect in Ilya Samsonov.

Sabres should have just rolled with a 1a/1b platoon the last two years with a cheap goalie like Nilsson and then Ullmark or another Nilsson type goalie while drafting Samsonov at #21. Samsonov is ready to take the reins within the next 2 years. Oh well, that's what Buffalo gets for hiring Timmy Murray who wants "HIS" guys, Tim Murray gets who Tim Murray wants, regardless of cost.:shakehead

Not a single non Sabre fan would rather have Robin Lehner then Ilya Samsonov.




Too bad the 2012 draft was straight garbage. Actually pretty comparable to this upcoming draft. The prospects available at #21 in 2015 are easily top 10 picks in the 2012 draft, just like they would be in this draft. Guys like Konecny,Boeser, Roslovic, White etc are easily top 3-8 picks in 2017.

It's. A. Late. First.

He's. A. Starting. Quality. Goalie.

Get. Over. It.
 

Ace

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Things you don't ever get at 21: a guaranteed starting quality player. Doesn't matter what draft year. Ever.

Thing got by trading 21: a starting quality player.

Thing also got by trading 21: people who never stop crying about something they're wrong about
 

Ace

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ITT: people who would trade the boat for the mystery box.

It could be anything. It could even be a boat.
 

Husko

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I didn't like the Lehner trade

I think Lehner is a perfectly fine starting goalie

Not sure why for some the first prevents them from appreciating the second
 

Sabre the Win

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No, there is a thread where people are cherry picking numbers to back up their strongly held beliefs about Lehner.
People on this forum cherry pick his GAA which only tells a small part of the story. People actually dug deep into his advanced stats to show hes below average. There are two sides to the fence, one side you can keep this belief hes above average by only looking at his GAA or the other side of the fence where advanced stats lay and show hes below average. Myself? I don't have rose colored glasses on even for being a die hard Sabres fan so I hear both sides and then formulate my opinion but if you only look at one side than your cherry picking as much as those you accuse.
 
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Rasmus CacOlainen

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hahaha what? people on this forum cherry pick his GAA which only tells a small part of the story. People actually dug deep into his advanced stats to show hes below average. There are two sides to the fence, one side you can keep this belief hes above average by only looking at his GAA or the other side of the fence where advanced stats lay and show hes below average. Myself? I don't have rose colored glasses on even for being a die hard Sabres fan so I hear both sides and then formulate my opinion but if you only look at one side than your cherry picking as much as those you accuse.

If you compare Nilsson vs Lehner on the website someone gave in the other thread Nilsson's numbers are actually better.

https://www.dispellingvoodoo.com/save-v2-1617

God knows how anyone can argue Lehner is an average NHL starter, when he gets beaten on numbers by a fairly average back-up on the same team.

If you compare his numbers to another started behind a crap defense like Cam Talbot, it's ugly. Lehner is a bad goalie. I hope we trade him before ED to someone that is blind and relies only on basic SV% numbers. Is GMTM getting another gig soon? :laugh:

Also last season The Chad's numbers are no worse than Lehner, arguably they are actually better than Lehner's.
 
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Butt Ox

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I've given my negative opinion on Lehner long before anyone actually gave advanced stats despite his "good" SV%. The eye test is enough with Lehner, he is not a quality starter...

I'd go to war with him. I like his fire.

Whomever is number 2 can take that job any time they want. RL is not Botts guy. Nothing holding them back. History/salary/nothing.
 
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