Roster Speculation 2017-18 Part 3

[CatsforReinhart]

That 1st was going to Colorado in the ROR trade if we didn't trade for Lehner. This is also a confirmed fact. Would've taken the place of the 2nd. I don't get why so many people overlook this as it just makes the Lehner trade look like an overpayment for Lehner when we actually gave the Avs less than what they were willing to give for O'Rielly. ROR >>> Colin White

My question is what if Murray had thrown in Compher/Zadorov with the 2nd for Lehner if he'd sent the 1st to the Avs? How does that trade look?

Also what's with the Lehner hate? The dude was top 5 in GAA and Sv% if I remember correctly. And he's only 25. That's crazy young for a goalie that put up numbers like that. I don't think anyone else in the NHL can even compare with that achievement besides Gibson.

Come on you are just minipulating reality with fantasy. So you are saying we could have traded that first for anyone then not just Lehner? Or Did the first have to go to Lehner for Colorado accept they were not getting that first? I like confirmed facts

Can you post where Colorado said it is ok for the first to be traded for Lehner and we will take some other stuff instead?

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Anybody who can definitively say Raanta...or Grubauer...or Lehner will be the better goalie going forwards is full of ****. Grubauer, he of 66 NHL starts, in a cushy gig backing up a Vezina goalie, on a great team, could just as well come here and look worse than Lehner. Crystal balling young goalies is a fruitless endeavor in this league.

Moving assets to only get a potentially similar goalie as Lehner makes no sense when he's under team control and who can now be assessed playing behind a better team and new system.

But theres no sense in even debating this with some.

I watch WSH quite a bit and have obviously seen enough of Lehner to conclude that overall Grubi would be a clear level above Lehner. This is my opinion based on what I have seen from both so far in past 2 seasons. If asset cost for both is same it's a no brainer for me. Havent seen so much of Raanta but many seem to be high on him as well. And Id take that as a better prospect than my impressions of Lehner.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Lehner is going to keep you in games. He most likely won't win you games if you're team has a bad night. He's a cost controlled goalie who can control the crease until one of your young goalies has shown enough ability to take the crease. Thats part of the reason why Murray had faith in the guy.

Thats a description of Lehner Id agree with. If we make playoffs we need someone to steal games and I wouldnt put my faith in him to do that. He may be an OK regular season goalie but I doubt in his whole career he has a great playoff run where he drags a team through a round which is what the elite goalies can do. This is the basis for my wish to replace him with someone else with similar trade value. He is average, OK, med of the pac. I do not want our goalie to be that - simple as. Nothing to do with a 1st round pickgiven up or whatever. Jist simply tired of mediocre performances from this team and the less mediocre to middle of the pack players I see, the better Id feel about supporting them. He has no upside. Gtubi may be middle of the pack now but at least he has upside to turn into that goalie that can steal playoff rounds given a chance to play night in night out

 

[Aladyyn]

What was our record when we scored at least 2 goals again?

 

[Icicle]

If you can get a defenseman from Arizona for Lehner being exposed, you consider it, and ask if they take an Ennis along with the exposure. Goalies of Lehner's caliber are replaceable. As far as my eye test goes, he's a huge choker and you don't 'keep' those assets locked up. Plus he has a temper and an ego, we don't need either.

We talk about Lehner because it's another option leading up to the expansion draft to solve the defense issue. Otherwise, all we have is Kane and for some reason people think Reinhart is also expendable, though I'm sure Botts isn't as stupid as people around here are about trading that blue chip for 'futures'.

 

[Jame]

There are a handful of elite NHL oalies... then there are about 20 capable NHL goalies. The elite are out of reach... so make sure you have a capable one, and build a damn good team in front of them.

Lehner is a capable NHL goalie.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

There are a handful of elite NHL oalies... then there are about 20 capable NHL goalies. The elite are out of reach... so make sure you have a capable one, and build a damn good team in front of them.

Lehner is a capable NHL goalie.

This plus the fact that paying elite goalies the money they are worth is poor roster /cap management.

Go with your capable guy, build a great team in front of him (starting with defence) and hope he heat up at the right time.

 

[The Blunder Years]

Goalie is the last concern right now. Sign Lehner for 3 years or less. Keep goalie deals short. 3 years pass and hopefully Ullmark takes the crease. Rinse, wash, repeat.

 

[sincerity0]

Goalie is the last concern right now. Sign Lehner for 3 years or less. Keep goalie deals short. 3 years pass and hopefully Ullmark takes the crease. Rinse, wash, repeat.

I always laugh when people like Schopp complain about teams paying too much for goalies. Good teams like the Blackhawks, Pens, etc are not paying high goalie salaries because the goalie is "good." They're paying them because they know what they have in them.

Could you imagine a team like the Pens, Blackhawks or Caps going into the season with Anders Nilsson as their starting goalie? If Nilsson crumbles over the course of the season tht GM gets killed.

I also understand there many flaws in this argument. Personally I don't believe so many GMs are naive about marginal increases ability deserving significantly more salary. Knowing "what you have" in a goalie is worth something, I'm simply not sure if that's worth $2-3m more in salary space.

With that said, the Sabres are not competing for a cup in the next 2-3 years. Sign Lehner for 3 years and go from there.

 

[Aladyyn]

Antti Niemi won a Cup. Jonathan Quick won 2.

 

[Ace]

I always laugh when people like Schopp complain about teams paying too much for goalies. Good teams like the Blackhawks, Pens, etc are not paying high goalie salaries because the goalie is "good." They're paying them because they know what they have in them.

Could you imagine a team like the Pens, Blackhawks or Caps going into the season with Anders Nilsson as their starting goalie? If Nilsson crumbles over the course of the season tht GM gets killed.

I also understand there many flaws in this argument. Personally I don't believe so many GMs are naive about marginal increases ability deserving significantly more salary. Knowing "what you have" in a goalie is worth something, I'm simply not sure if that's worth $2-3m more in salary space.

With that said, the Sabres are not competing for a cup in the next 2-3 years. Sign Lehner for 3 years and go from there.

The Penguins are about to win a second cup in a row with their high priced goalie on the bench.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

If you go into the season with Nilsson you make sure you have two other 35-48 game starters in the org and are probably fine unless your team sucks.

 

[sincerity0]

The Penguins are about to win a second cup in a row with their high priced goalie on the bench.

Yes - they got a better goalie. I said there are flaws in the argument, and even questioned it's specific salary "worth."

The Pens switched to Murray because he was absolutely tearing up the AHL. He posted 10 shutouts that season.

But the Pens went into last year depending on Fleury and signed him to a 4(?) year extension two seasons ago.

 

[Icicle]

Pens and Hawks are examples of exactly why you don't give goalies contracts unless he is Carey Price caliber. I don't understand how you can spin this Fleury stuff so hard. His NMC is screwing them royally in this upcoming draft if he decides he doesn't want to waive.

Lehner has no clutch, which matters the most in the playoffs. He's barely capable.

 

[kirby11]

The Pens literally just won a Cup with their rookie goalie coming out of nowhere and are poised to potentially repeat with him in net.

 

[Dingo44]

Antti Niemi won a Cup. Jonathan Quick won 2.

I'll give you Niemi but Quick was in beast mode for that first Cup, and was very good the second.

 

[joshjull]

Pens and Hawks are examples of exactly why you don't give goalies contracts unless he is Carey Price caliber. I don't understand how you can spin this Fleury stuff so hard. His NMC is screwing them royally in this upcoming draft if he decides he doesn't want to waive.

Lehner has no clutch, which matters the most in the playoffs. He's barely capable.

I'm not sure what your point is. MAF's contract obviously hasn't hindered the Pens from building a Cup winner last year and building a team 1 win away from another this year. His modified NMC/NTC hurts because of an expansion draft. But that is a pretty rare event.

As for The Hawks, the won their first Cup with , iirc, 11-12mil tied up in two goalies (Khabibulin/Huet). They won their 3rd Cup in the 1st year of Crawford's current deal. They were not hindered by these deals.

I find it incredibly odd either the Pens or Hawks would be used as examples of why you don't give goalies big contracts unless they are Carey Price.

Teams will have contracts they need to work around at times to have success. When its a goalie, for what ever reason, it seems to be viewed differently than when its a skater.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Whats the cost of Calvin De Haan if centered around him and Kane.

 

[Mattilaus]

Whats the cost of Calvin De Haan if centered around him and Kane.

I doubt a team that employs Andrew Ladd would take the risk of bringing Kane into the fold much less offer anything good for him. The risk of fracturing the room would be too great.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm not sure what your point is. MAF's contract obviously hasn't hindered the Pens from building a Cup winner last year and building a team 1 win away from another this year. His modified NMC/NTC hurts because of an expansion draft. But that is a pretty rare event.

As for The Hawks, the won their first Cup with , iirc, 11-12mil tied up in two goalies (Niemi/Huet). They won their 3rd Cup in the 1st year of Crawford's current deal. They were not hindered by these deals.

I find it incredibly odd either the Pens or Hawks would be used as examples of why you don't give goalies big contracts unless they are Carey Price.

Teams will have contracts they need to work around at times to have success. When its a goalie, for what ever reason, it seems to be viewed differently than when its a skater.

And if Nashville wins, you have Rinne counting $7M (t-3rd highest G cap hit) against the cap.

There isn't one way to build a winner.

I believe that you can win with an elite goalie that gets paid elite money. Just like with any player, you need to be getting elite play while said goalie is getting paid elite money.

 

[dotcommunism]

As for The Hawks, the won their first Cup with , iirc, 11-12mil tied up in two goalies (Niemi/Huet). They won their 3rd Cup in the 1st year of Crawford's current deal. They were not hindered by these deals.

When Chicago won their first cup, Niemi was making $800k. They let Niemi walk that offseason instead of paying his arbitration award. It was the year before they won where they had over $11M locked up in two goalies (Huet and Khabibulin).

 

[sincerity0]

Pens and Hawks are examples of exactly why you don't give goalies contracts unless he is Carey Price caliber. I don't understand how you can spin this Fleury stuff so hard. His NMC is screwing them royally in this upcoming draft if he decides he doesn't want to waive.

Lehner has no clutch, which matters the most in the playoffs. He's barely capable.

Goalies like Fleury that are good (not "Carey Price" level) get paid because they are some what proven and reliable. It's not hard to grasp why a team would pay a goalie $5.5-6m per for slightly above average to good goalie play if they've shown that over a period of years.

Obviously MAFs contract has not hindered the team as they are poised to win their second cup with him on the bench.

Having Murray come out of no where and posting 10 SO in the AHL and then taking over the starting job is a completely valid counter argument. It's also one that I support in why support the idea to not pay big money for goalies unless its Price.

All I'm saying is paying a marginal premium for a proven goaltender when the team is in contention is a valid strategy. Paying for "proven" in sports, assuming age isn't prohibitive, is okay. When the Sabres are ready to contend I wouldn't mind paying a goalie $5m-$5.5m per if they provide steady, above average play throughout the regular season and playoffs.

As for getting a young player to provide equal, if not better, production at a minimal salary should always be preferred at any position, in any sport or business. It's simply logical.

If the Pens stick Murray back there last year to start the season, get rid of MAF and Murray absolutely ***** the bed, their team gets murderiously criticized by fans around the league. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Dingo44]

Goalies like Fleury that are good (not "Carey Price" level) get paid because they are some what proven and reliable. It's not hard to grasp why a team would pay a goalie $5.5-6m per for slightly above average to good goalie play if they've shown that over a period of years.

Obviously MAFs contract has not hindered the team as they are poised to win their second cup with him on the bench.

Having Murray come out of no where and posting 10 SO in the AHL and then taking over the starting job is a completely valid counter argument. It's also one that I support in why support the idea to not pay big money for goalies unless its Price.

All I'm saying is paying a marginal premium for a proven goaltender when the team is in contention is a valid strategy. Paying for "proven" in sports, assuming age isn't prohibitive, is okay. When the Sabres are ready to contend I wouldn't mind paying a goalie $5m-$5.5m per if they provide steady, above average play throughout the regular season and playoffs.

As for getting a young player to provide equal, if not better, production at a minimal salary should always be preferred at any position, in any sport or business. It's simply logical.

If the Pens stick Murray back there last year to start the season, get rid of MAF and Murray absolutely ***** the bed, their team gets murderiously criticized by fans around the league. That's all I'm saying.

Goalies are both overvalued and undervalued but first of all, you can't count on a guy like Murray exploding in the AHL and then bringing you a Cup or even a deep playoff run. There aren't many Murray/Patrick Roy/Ken Dryden types out there. Just because it happened with teams before doesn't mean it will.
Secondly, how many teams may have made the playoffs this year with average goaltending? Dallas? Winnipeg? Calgary almost lost their season until Elliott started playing better. So you need a good goalie. If you have one you don't have to overpay but you can't just keep thinking you just keep rolling out guys on entry-level contracts and spend everywhere else.

 

[Sabre the Win]

What is this obsession with moving Lehner? Seriously. I get we paid a premium for him, maybe more than he's 'worth'. But we have a relatively young goalie that put up great numbers. Realistically, who is coming in that outperforms Lehner, that doesn't cost assets that hurts the team?

It only came about because of rumors but in my view if Lehner wants term and money I am willing to walk on him. Why? Well I don't feel like we are close to being Stanley Cup contenders yet so investing in a goalie now is not the right solution especially with so many question marks to Lehners game. If I am not 100% sure he is the starter going forward who will backstop this team to a Stanley Cup than why would I invest term and money into him?

He has been plagued with injuries, he sucks at hugging the corners of posts and he is one of the worst goalies I have ever seen in a shootout. Last season he cost us 8 points because of his shootout woes.

Now is not the time to lock down goalies, we need competition in the net and if Lehner doesn't want that I can see him moving on or us moving on without him.

 

[sincerity0]

And if Nashville wins, you have Rinne counting $7M (t-3rd highest G cap hit) against the cap.

There isn't one way to build a winner.

I believe that you can win with an elite goalie that gets paid elite money. Just like with any player, you need to be getting elite play while said goalie is getting paid elite money.

There is definitely no singular way to build a winner. The argument initially is that posters don't want to have Lehner here long term because he's *not* an elite goalie. So instead of paying him $4m/yr (for example) find someone like Johnson or Nilsson and pay them $2m for one year then find someone else.

This is often stated by posters here and on WGR because teams can often get average goalie production for cheap -- so why not shave cap space by picking up an avg goalie on a 1-2 year deal (or bring up a prospect on an ELC/bride) then find someone else when they're ready to get paid. Saving the cap space can then be used to provide emote depth in the rest of the roster.

We can sit here all day and find counter examples all day of teams who have done well with a cheap goalie. That goes back to your idea that there's no one way to build a roster.

Assume the Sabres sign Lehner to a 2-3 yr bridge at ~$4m per. If Lehner provides quality, reliable goaltending in that time, and In 2-3 yrs the Sabres are trying to contend, is his proven play not worth something?

I'm not advocating for paying $7m a year for a "good" goalie. I'm saying that having a proven player (at any position) can be worth a premium. If a younger, cheaper, and possibly better player comes along in the prospect pool by all means replace the he costlier vet.

Sign Lehner to a 2-3 year bridge deal, $4m per, and if we get Ullmark, Johansson, or Peterson to outperform that contract then move out Lehner. It's not a difficult concept to grasp. Good teams do it all the time. The key is to not sign a goalie to a long term, big money contract unless they are Price.