Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Nassau Revisited]

We'll see. He hasn't been good this year, and that was before last night's brutal hit.

Being a 4-6 is realistic expectation to me but the defense needs serious work

Right now with Aho, Bolduc, Reilly, and Mayfield we have 4 guys that that slot in as 6-9/10 on a good teams depth chart

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Being a 4-6 is realistic expectation to me but the defense needs serious work

Right now with Aho, Bolduc, Reilly, and Mayfield we have 4 guys that that slot in as 6-9/10 on a good teams depth chart

Yeah, the LHD side of the defense isn't looking good right now. Pelech regressed this season and you can see the effect it has had on the team, especially by looking at the standings right now.

It is what it is. He is here LT by virtue of his contract, so hopefully next season he returns of the Pelech of 2018-2022.

I wouldn't hold my breath, though. Adding in another huge injury makes it seem likelier that the decline will continue.

 

[Nassau Revisited]

Yeah, the LHD side of the defense isn't looking good right now. Pelech regressed this season and you can see the effect it has had on the team, especially by looking at the standings right now.

It is what it is. He is here LT by virtue of his contract, so hopefully next season he returns of the Pelech of 2018-2022.

I wouldn't hold my breath, though. Adding in another huge injury makes it seem likelier that the decline will continue.

Agreed, pencilling Pelech in for big minutes next year is asking for a lot of trouble. Lou desperately needs to add to the defense this offseason

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Agreed, pencilling Pelech in for big minutes next year is asking for a lot of trouble. Lou desperately needs to add to the defense this offseason

Don't really see how that's possible.

Nothing in the farm. No trade assets unless you want to continue eating the first round pick, which you shouldn't. Especially since the 2024 pick is probably going to be a top-10 pick. Like $6M in cap space this summer. Sure, there's no important RFAs or UFAs re-sign, but you still need to fill out the NHL roster with bodies, which the $6M will probably be used for. So effectively no cap space.

So there's no way to add a LHD.

Next season's defense corp is going to be the same as this year's: Dobson, Pelech, Pulock, Romanov, Mayfield, Bolduc and a 7th guy like Aho or Reilly.

 

[Nassau Revisited]

Don't really see how that's possible.

Nothing in the farm. No trade assets unless you want to continue eating the first round pick, which you shouldn't. Especially since the 2024 pick is probably going to be a top-10 pick. Like $6M in cap space this summer. Sure, there's no important RFAs or UFAs re-sign, but you still need to fill out the NHL roster with bodies, which the $6M will probably be used for. So effectively no cap space.

So there's no way to add a LHD.

Next season's defense corp is going to be the same as this year's: Dobson, Pelech, Pulock, Romanov, Mayfield, Bolduc and a 7th guy like Aho or Reilly.

You are 100% correct. Lou really backed him self in a corner signing all the long term deals. The only way out would be making a hockey trade and not a cap dump move and I’m not sure that is possible with Pelech and Pulock after the injuries this season.

If Mayfield was a UFA after this year he would be looking at 1 year deals in the 2 million range. His contract kills us the most as his decline could be seen a mile away

 

[The Real JT]

You are 100% correct. Lou really backed him self in a corner signing all the long term deals. The only way out would be making a hockey trade and not a cap dump move and I’m not sure that is possible with Pelech and Pulock after the injuries this season.

If Mayfield was a UFA after this year he would be looking at 1 year deals in the 2 million range. His contract kills us the most as his decline could be seen a mile away

While I agree with you for the most part, I’m not sure that Mayfield has declined yet. His uninspiring play is probably more a factor of him having to log extra minutes while sharing the ice with borderline NHL starting Dmen. He’s still a good #3 RHDman but expecting him to play at a higher level is not realistic.

Don’t get me wrong, he will decline. Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of that, but I’m not convinced. More importantly, there’s no doubt he will decline soon. The term of his contract was clearly ill advised.

Market value has substantially declined since he signed that deal. I guess he might get a three-year deal at $2.5 M AAV right now if he were on the market.

 

[doublechili]

I will say what I've said for years now...This roster needs more talent (which I said all along). Trotz was the best coach we could've possibly hired and absolutely my dream coach (which I said all along) and had them overachieving (which I said all along), but are you going to sit there and tell me that we couldn't have used more scoring talent when we lost to the Lightning in game 7 a few years ago 1-0...?

That is my contention - That the team needs more talent to win it all (no matter who is coaching), and that is Lou's responsibility...

I'll be curious to see what king of player/s (if any) that Lou acquires or promotes now that Roy is the coach. Whereas Trotz/Lambert seemed more concerned with players who could play without the puck, Roy seems to like players who can play with the puck.

 

[Throttle]

Well, clearly playing less minutes limits how many turnovers he can commit so yes he’s a better player when better players play more minutes than he does
My question stands
Would Lou let Roy sit Mayfield?

There are GMs that tell the coach who is playing and all that.

Lou doesn’t strike me as one of them. Those types of GMs don’t last. Doubtful Roy, takes the job if Lou is hovering over player decisions.

I think the first goal against, it was Engvall, Aho, and Buldoc in the defensive zone…

 

[Nassau Revisited]

While I agree with you for the most part, I’m not sure that Mayfield has declined yet. His uninspiring play is probably more a factor of him having to log extra minutes while sharing the ice with borderline NHL starting Dmen. He’s still a good #3 RHDman but expecting him to play at a higher level is not realistic.

Don’t get me wrong, he will decline. Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of that, but I’m not convinced. More importantly, there’s no doubt he will decline soon. The term of his contract was clearly ill advised.

Market value has substantially declined since he signed that deal. I guess he might get a three-year deal at $2.5 M AAV right now if he were on the market.

He is definitely being overused and maybe if we had a healthy d his ice time could be reduced and he would look better. Playing with one of Aho/Bolduc/Reilly also does not help. Historically he has been around 19min a game or so and this year he is at 21 min

 

[NC 1972]

I think they need a left shot D, Chychrun fits the bill, but at what cost?

I simply can't trust Pelech's health at this point (not saying it's his fault), but he hasn't been Adam Pelech since the year BEFORE Trotz was fired, that's 2+ seasons.

Don’t know where I read it here or on the main but you need to be a bit concerned about a guy that’s constantly looking to go elsewhere.

 

[PK Cronin]

There are GMs that tell the coach who is playing and all that.

Lou doesn’t strike me as one of them. Those types of GMs don’t last. Doubtful Roy, takes the job if Lou is hovering over player decisions.

I think the first goal against, it was Engvall, Aho, and Buldoc in the defensive zone…

Aho had a couple f*** ups last night and/or demonstrated his inability to overcome a mistake. I'm not sure why he's still being trotted out there, he's abysmal.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

While I agree with you for the most part, I’m not sure that Mayfield has declined yet. His uninspiring play is probably more a factor of him having to log extra minutes while sharing the ice with borderline NHL starting Dmen. He’s still a good #3 RHDman but expecting him to play at a higher level is not realistic.

Don’t get me wrong, he will decline. Maybe we’re seeing the beginning of that, but I’m not convinced. More importantly, there’s no doubt he will decline soon. The term of his contract was clearly ill advised.

Market value has substantially declined since he signed that deal. I guess he might get a three-year deal at $2.5 M AAV right now if he were on the market.

Mayfield has been awful this year. Even in comparison to the "borderline NHL starting Dmen" on the team. Worst defenseman on the team for 2023.

Granted, he has enough sample size over his career that you could make the case that maybe he rebounds a bit next year. But yeah, this year, he is the borderline NHL dman.

 

[impaaaaaact]

He is definitely being overused and maybe if we had a healthy d his ice time could be reduced and he would look better. Playing with one of Aho/Bolduc/Reilly also does not help. Historically he has been around 19min a game or so and this year he is at 21 min

While I agree with you for the most part, I’m not sure that Mayfield has declined yet. His uninspiring play is probably more a factor of him having to log extra minutes while sharing the ice with borderline NHL starting Dmen. He’s still a good #3 RHDman but expecting him to play at a higher level is not realistic.

Mayfield logging 2 minutes under what he was last season. He got his contract, we have to play him, he doesn’t have to improve.

Being a 4-6 is realistic expectation to me but the defense needs serious work

Right now with Aho, Bolduc, Reilly, and Mayfield we have 4 guys that that slot in as 6-9/10 on a good teams depth chart

Hate to say it but Pelech being out would be addition by subtraction at this point. He’s been pretty bad for like 2 seasons now and can’t seem to catch a break with the injuries. You gotta start wondering how many more of these he’s going to battle back from. Reilly has been our second best LHD this season IMO so no problem getting him back in the lineup

 

[impaaaaaact]

Aho had a couple f*** ups last night and/or demonstrated his inability to overcome a mistake. I'm not sure why he's still being trotted out there, he's abysmal.

Taking Aho out means calling up Hutton which Lou already made a trade to not do. Aho also plays more of a possession type game that Roy reportedly values. He seems to be an analytics guy, and Aho’s have historically been great… I believe Reilly’s have as well.

Defense got absolutely wrecked with injuries this year, the one line bright spot is that Lane was forced to play Dobson 30 mins a game and we found out we have a top 10 defenseman

 

[PK Cronin]

Mayfield logging 2 minutes under what he was last season. He got his contract, we have to play him, he doesn’t have to improve.


Hate to say it but Pelech being out would be addition by subtraction at this point. He’s been pretty bad for like 2 seasons now and can’t seem to catch a break with the injuries. Reilly has been our second best LHD this season IMO

These guys were both injured at the start of the season and had to play in a terrible defensive system. Pelech has played just 25 games and Mayfield has played 33, I don't know what writing them off after this stretch makes sense.

Pelech doesn't need to be a top pairing guy with the emergence of Romanov and Dobson, he needs to be a healthy shutdown second pair guy. Mayfield needs to have structure or he's screwed, his skating isn't good enough to be improvising out there.

Taking Aho out means calling up Hutton which Lou already made a trade to not do. Defense got absolutely wrecked with injuries this year, the one line bright spot is that Lane was forced to play Dobson 30 mins a game and we found out we have a top 10 defenseman

I'd shift someone else and roll those dice. Reilly is bigger and more mobile, I'd put him there before having Aho go back in.

 

[SRBisles]

Aho had a couple f*** ups last night and/or demonstrated his inability to overcome a mistake. I'm not sure why he's still being trotted out there, he's abysmal.

One of Lamoriello’s more underrated failures is not upgrading on Aho two offseasons in a row. He’s abysmal, shouldn’t even be a 7D on a team with playoff aspirations.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Aho had a couple f*** ups last night and/or demonstrated his inability to overcome a mistake. I'm not sure why he's still being trotted out there, he's abysmal.

It's pretty obvious. In terms of defensemen, he has one of the better corsi %s on the team, and he has the best takeaway/giveaway ratios on the team (excluding Bortuzzo due to small sample)

Coaches like takeaways and don't like giveaways

 

[PK Cronin]

It's pretty obvious. In terms of defensemen, he has one of the better corsi %s on the team, and he has the best takeaway/giveaway ratios on the team (excluding Bortuzzo due to small sample)

Coaches like takeaways and don't like giveaways

View attachment 810932

I couldn't care less about CORSI personally.

The issue with Aho is that he doesn't do anything wrong for the majority of the game but then there's always a play that a normal defenseman could handle that he simply can't and it leads to goals at crucial moments. It's not that he has a brain fart (though he has those too), it's his inability to actually perform the function.

The biggest example is he can't contain any big forward at all and has to hold on for dear life when things start to get physical. That's not because he's in the wrong position or made a mental mistake, he's just physically overmatched and it happens constantly. That means he can't play in crucial situations because he'll just get abused.

Despite his great CORSI and better than most giveaway/takeaway ratio he's second to last on the team in +/- at -13. The next closest defenseman is Reilly at -10, but at least Reilly can put up some points while being a defensive liability. He's also not going to get toss around the ice like a ragdoll the same way Aho is.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

I couldn't care less about CORSI personally.

I mean you should. It's one of the best indicators of what the expected goal differential should be, and thus one of the best predictors of team success.

Take a look at the teams with the best corsi and the worst corsi, and compare to the current standings:

It's a metric highly correlated with winning games whether you like it or not. It's important.

The issue with Aho is that he doesn't do anything wrong for the majority of the game but then there's always a play that a normal defenseman could handle that he simply can't and it leads to goals at crucial moments.

It depends on what you mean I guess since this is pretty vague, but statistically, Aho has the best giveaway/takeaway ratio of any Islanders defenseman. That's just a fact.

And that is the answer to your question as to why Aho plays.

 

[Throttle]

Don’t know where I read it here or on the main but you need to be a bit concerned about a guy that’s constantly looking to go elsewhere.

Example: That PLD guy is looking great in LA.

 

[steveat]

I couldn't care less about CORSI personally.

The issue with Aho is that he doesn't do anything wrong for the majority of the game but then there's always a play that a normal defenseman could handle that he simply can't and it leads to goals at crucial moments. It's not that he has a brain fart (though he has those too), it's his inability to actually perform the function.

The biggest example is he can't contain any big forward at all and has to hold on for dear life when things start to get physical. That's not because he's in the wrong position or made a mental mistake, he's just physically overmatched and it happens constantly. That means he can't play in crucial situations because he'll just get abused.

Despite his great CORSI and better than most giveaway/takeaway ratio he's second to last on the team in +/- at -13. The next closest defenseman is Reilly at -10, but at least Reilly can put up some points while being a defensive liability. He's also not going to get toss around the ice like a ragdoll the same way Aho is.

You are right on your assessment, however, he was never given the opportunity to make his skills shine. Look at his career. He has always been an offensive defenceman, but this team, most of the time, puts him in weird defensive situations ALL the time.

You can tell he's been working on staying up with the club, playing in a style he's not built to do and I admire that because he wants to be here. His shot is super accurate...but our guys never crash the net and or they miss the net on the deflection. He never shoots at the net to score..he's always looking for a stick and if you watch...they hit the majority of the time.

I completely agree with some defensive gaffs, especially when Owen Tippet is on the ice.. That kid is FAST..none of our guys can handle Tippet if it were not for their reach. He just doesn't naturally think defensively.....You HAVE to be aware at who's on the ice and if there is a fast player, you need to know when to start hustling back BEFORE it's too late.

As for the +-, I'm not sure because a lot of those goals against weren't his fault at all. It feels like a mixture of forwards not back checking, lackadaisical play of other players, being too cute etc etc. AT the same time...I'm starting to think that maybe for this part, it might be the coaching...anyway...lets see...I really want to see what we are after 10-15 games.

I do see him struggling to make offensive plays..but I don't think that is lack of offensive skill. Come on..we know he has it..hes impressed us every so often, but I see he is really edgy/confused...maybe not used to playing a 2 way game..it's either defensive or offensive (one or the other..never both). He seems to be struggling on timing of when to jump into the play and when not to...YOu can see at some points, he hesitates...I think this has something to do with Trotz drilling in defense into his head and it's conflicting with his offensive skills. Also, when he first came up..he was only supposed to play a defensive game.

Anyway...I am seeing that Roy is having him try things. You see that he sometimes jumps into plays (playing like a forward)...and yes, I'd be open at trying him on wing.

 

[PK Cronin]

I mean you should. It's one of the best indicators of what the expected goal differential should be, and thus one of the best predictors of team success.

Take a look at the teams with the best corsi and the worst corsi, and compare to the current standings:
View attachment 810947View attachment 810948

It's a metric highly correlated with winning games whether you like it or not. It's important.

I've done a deep dive on it in previous years and it's really not that great at predicting. You can look at goal differential and it's essentially the same thing. It isn't actually predicting anything, it's telling you which teams are doing well at that specific metric. Once the playoffs come around you can see how top CORSI teams get bounced by lesser teams pretty frequently, to the point that if you were picking winners and losers based solely on CORSI you'd lose more than you'd win.

It helps tell a story but it isn't the story.

Edit: Looked back at another post I made some time ago, it was a look at expected goals and not corsi. I do believe the same is likely true of corsi but I can't say that definitively.

Here's that post if you're interested Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California but there is a lot of snark in there and for that I apologize to you for having to sift through that.

It depends on what you mean I guess since this is pretty vague, but statistically, Aho has the best giveaway/takeaway ratio of any Islanders defenseman. That's just a fact.

And that is the answer to your question as to why Aho plays.

It could be part of it. I'll see if I can go find some specific clips for you if you're interested. I do comment about it during the GDTs when it happens (if I'm watching live). It's just brutal watching him try and defend these guys, falling all over the ice, and giving up grade-A opportunities as frequently as he does.

I guess a simple way to put it is that when he messes up it's usually big.

 

[PK Cronin]

You are right on your assessment, however, he was never given the opportunity to make his skills shine. Look at his career. He has always been an offensive defenceman, but this team, most of the time, puts him in weird defensive situations ALL the time.

You can tell he's been working on staying up with the club, playing in a style he's not built to do and I admire that because he wants to be here. His shot is super accurate...but our guys never crash the net and or they miss the net on the deflection. He never shoots at the net to score..he's always looking for a stick and if you watch...they hit the majority of the time.

I completely agree with some defensive gaffs, especially when Owen Tippet is on the ice.. That kid is FAST..none of our guys can handle Tippet if it were not for their reach. He just doesn't naturally think defensively.....You HAVE to be aware at who's on the ice and if there is a fast player, you need to know when to start hustling back BEFORE it's too late.

As for the +-, I'm not sure because a lot of those goals against weren't his fault at all. It feels like a mixture of forwards not back checking, lackadaisical play of other players, being too cute etc etc. AT the same time...I'm starting to think that maybe for this part, it might be the coaching...anyway...lets see...I really want to see what we are after 10-15 games.

I do see him struggling to make offensive plays..but I don't think that is lack of offensive skill. Come on..we know he has it..hes impressed us every so often, but I see he is really edgy/confused...maybe not used to playing a 2 way game..it's either defensive or offensive (one or the other..never both). He seems to be struggling on timing of when to jump into the play and when not to...YOu can see at some points, he hesitates...I think this has something to do with Trotz drilling in defense into his head and it's conflicting with his offensive skills. Also, when he first came up..he was only supposed to play a defensive game.

Anyway...I am seeing that Roy is having him try things. You see that he sometimes jumps into plays (playing like a forward)...and yes, I'd be open at trying him on wing.

I don't think he's terrible offensively but I don't think his offensive upside is very high. He's not a particularly quick or shifty skater, he doesn't evade forecheckers, he doesn't carry the puck up the ice with any regularity, his shot isn't very threatening either. Completely agree that he's looking for tips when he shoots, he keeps the shots low and is putting them into areas his teammates can get them and not into the oppositions shins like a lot of guys on this team do. It doesn't translate to points though and I don't think his strengths outweigh his weaknesses, and if he's an offensive defenseman brought in to produce offense but isn't, why is he still here?

Some of the issues for all of the defensemen are coaching and systems related, no doubt, but he has more and I find it very frustrating to watch.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

I've done a deep dive on it in previous years and it's really not that great at predicting.

I guess it depends on what you are predicting, but it's good at least predicting what teams will make the playoffs and what teams will miss.

2022/2023 top-10 CORSI: eight made the playoffs, two missed as 9th seeds
2021/2022 top-10 CORSI: nine made the playoffs, one missed as a 9th seed

2022/2023 bottom-10 CORSI: none made the playoffs
2021/2022 bottom-10 CORSI: two made the playoffs (one team had the Vezina winner)

I would agree when the playoffs start, it's less of a predictor since the playoffs are smaller-samples and with smaller-samples come more variation versus expected results. Simple stats logic says that you'll more often than not see the "expected result" over larger sample sizes versus smaller ones.

Plus refs do tend to overlook more things in the playoffs versus the regular season which helps the less skilled but more physical teams.

But you first have to make the playoffs, and the name of the game in the regular season at least is CORSI and puck possession.

 

[PK Cronin]

I guess it depends on what you are predicting, but it's good at least predicting what teams will make the playoffs and what teams will miss.

2022/2023 top-10 CORSI: eight made the playoffs, two missed as 9th seeds
2021/2022 top-10 CORSI: nine made the playoffs, one missed as a 9th seed

2022/2023 bottom-10 CORSI: none made the playoffs
2021/2022 bottom-10 CORSI: two made the playoffs (one team had the Vezina winner)

I would agree when the playoffs start, it's less of a predictor since the playoffs are smaller-samples and with smaller-samples come more variation versus expected results. Simple stats logic says that you'll more often than not see the "expected result" over larger sample sizes versus smaller ones.

Plus refs do tend to overlook more things in the playoffs versus the regular season which helps the less skilled but more physical teams.

But you first have to make the playoffs, and the name of the game in the regular season at least is CORSI and puck possession.

I think it's incredibly similar to goal differential.

2022/2023 top-16 in GD: All made the playoffs.
2021/2022 top-16 in GD: 14 teams made the playoffs.

2022/2023 bottom-16 in GD: none made the playoffs
2021/2022 bottom-16 in GD: two teams made the playoffs

While playoffs are a small sample size we do have samples from multiple seasons and any time I've looked at them the advanced stats do not do a great job of predicting winners. If we're putting so much emphasis on this particular stat it should perform better than goal differential or any other standard stat but I don't think it does.

When I hear predictive I think if team A played team B, it's going to tell me who should win. Corsi doesn't really do that. At the end of the season it tells you who played well but I don't think I've ever seen a breakdown of a team A vs team B predictability before they actually play the game and how accurate that is.