Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Osakahaus]

I don't see it unless they move a D making money.

NYI needs a LW. And they'll need one even if Parise wants to play.

(For all of the usual reasons, Henrique is most obvious target: swiss army knife, Lou pick, impending UFA.)

Henrique, Duclair, Ferraro, and maybe even a guy like Zub. Those all are our targets

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

I know I'm going to get some hate for this, but I want to bring up a couple of Holmstrom facts before everyone goes off the deep end:

- He's shooting 31%. For comparison, if Nelson was shooting 31% he would have 33 goals right now and be on pace for 87. Wayne Gretzky maxed out at 26%. This will not continue. I've seen people calling him a 25 goal scorer on this board, but if he had Barzal's shooting percentage he'd be on pace for 9 over a full season. Go check out how Kuzmenko is doing this year for a look at the other side of the coin.

- The reason he is shooting 31% is because almost all of his chances come on a 2-1 or a breakaway. They're all super high danger looks and he's done an (unsustainably) amazing job of burying them. The issue is that he's really not getting pucks on net in any other situation. He has 19 shots at 5v5 this season, and remember he played on the first line for like 10 games.

- I don't feel as though the third line has been doing a great job shutting down other teams. That's obviously not all on Holmstrom, but if he's not getting shots on net and not playing standout defense, that's a recipe for failure. Not saying he's a complete liability or anything, but he has 11 takeaways and 11 giveaways.

- Yes, he is leading the league in shorthanded goals. The PK is also the worst in the league. I would take a middle of the road PK with no shorties over what we have now. I would go as far as to say they're getting all of these 2 on 1s based on their scheme (or lack thereof) on the PK. It almost seems like they're trying harder to find a way to skate the puck out than just clear the puck sometimes.

Don't get me wrong, I love the guy... now. He seems to make the smart play, buries his opportunities more often than not and does it with style when he gets the chance. But even if they keep getting all of these shorthanded 2 on 1s, he's going to reach the other side of variance at some point and stop burying so many of them. And then you're left with a guy who doesn't score at 5v5 (or even gets shots to the net), isn't a shutdown defender, and is a cog in the worst PK in the NHL.


All of this to say, if his value has spiked I think he's a name you keep on the table. Not saying to actively shop the dude, but especially if Parise is coming back and can take his spot on the PK, he's a guy I wouldn't be shocked to see included in a package this year.

Sure, I do think we need to temper the expectation of goal scoring output of Holmstrom because of the unsustainable high shooting percentage.

But, those breakaway goals (not the 2 v1 one-timers), the severe angle shots that go over the goalies' shoulders and shootout goal show the goal scoring prowess he possesses.

 

[Osakahaus]

Sure, I do think we need to temper the expectation of goal scoring output of Holmstrom because of the unsustainable high shooting percentage.

But, those breakaway goals (not the 2 v1 one-timers), the severe angle shots that go over the goalies' shoulders and shootout goal show the goal scoring prowess he possesses.

He's definitely got a chance to be a 30-40 point player in the NHL, which is good.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

So the Islanders pick up a player on waivers (i.e. free) who does very well, is cheap and helps catapult the team to their best play of the season. Why do some fans insist on looking for what is "wrong" with this move? f***ing Eeyores.

 

[Osakahaus]

So the Islanders pick up a player on waivers (i.e. free) who does very well, is cheap and helps catapult the team to their best play of the season. Why do some fans insist on looking for what is "wrong" with this move? f***ing Eeyores.

who is saying that? Because I do not think Mike Reilly is a problem right now.

 

[Zeeker]

who is saying that? Because I do not think Mike Reilly is a problem right now.

Nobody is complaining - he is creating a strawman argument because some people here get off on complaining about complaining, for some reason

 

[MarsTBOW]

So the Islanders pick up a player on waivers (i.e. free) who does very well, is cheap and helps catapult the team to their best play of the season. Why do some fans insist on looking for what is "wrong" with this move? f***ing Eeyores.

I think it was a very good move. Luckily the player has played reasonably well.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I know many have said this, but also interesting that no other team ahead of the Isles put a claim in on him. He's making essentially minimum salary so basically every team could afford him.

Teams are not putting in claims at this point unless they have dire injury issues or it's a specialty case. It's not worth the effort to play personnel/cap/roster limit jenga just for a theoretical 1%-2% upgrade on their 6th defenseman, especially when the claim puts you at the back of the line.

 

[Throttle]

Henrique, Duclair, Ferraro, and maybe even a guy like Zub. Those all are our targets

Duclair is a regular season player. He’s awful in the playoffs. If you are fringe team hoping he can help you get there, then he’s worth it. In playoffs, yikes, he’s a weak link.

Teams are not putting in claims at this point unless they have dire injury issues or it's a specialty case. It's not worth the effort to play personnel/cap/roster limit jenga just for a theoretical 1%-2% upgrade on their 6th defenseman, especially when the claim puts you at the back of the line.

Thank the Lord Dubas acquired Karlsson, otherwise, Riley would be a Penguin!

 

[Glory Days]

I know I'm going to get some hate for this, but I want to bring up a couple of Holmstrom facts before everyone goes off the deep end:

- He's shooting 31%. For comparison, if Nelson was shooting 31% he would have 33 goals right now and be on pace for 87. Wayne Gretzky maxed out at 26%. This will not continue. I've seen people calling him a 25 goal scorer on this board, but if he had Barzal's shooting percentage he'd be on pace for 9 over a full season. Go check out how Kuzmenko is doing this year for a look at the other side of the coin.

- The reason he is shooting 31% is because almost all of his chances come on a 2-1 or a breakaway. They're all super high danger looks and he's done an (unsustainably) amazing job of burying them. The issue is that he's really not getting pucks on net in any other situation. He has 19 shots at 5v5 this season, and remember he played on the first line for like 10 games.

- I don't feel as though the third line has been doing a great job shutting down other teams. That's obviously not all on Holmstrom, but if he's not getting shots on net and not playing standout defense, that's a recipe for failure. Not saying he's a complete liability or anything, but he has 11 takeaways and 11 giveaways.

- Yes, he is leading the league in shorthanded goals. The PK is also the worst in the league. I would take a middle of the road PK with no shorties over what we have now. I would go as far as to say they're getting all of these 2 on 1s based on their scheme (or lack thereof) on the PK. It almost seems like they're trying harder to find a way to skate the puck out than just clear the puck sometimes.

Don't get me wrong, I love the guy... now. He seems to make the smart play, buries his opportunities more often than not and does it with style when he gets the chance. But even if they keep getting all of these shorthanded 2 on 1s, he's going to reach the other side of variance at some point and stop burying so many of them. And then you're left with a guy who doesn't score at 5v5 (or even gets shots to the net), isn't a shutdown defender, and is a cog in the worst PK in the NHL.


All of this to say, if his value has spiked I think he's a name you keep on the table. Not saying to actively shop the dude, but especially if Parise is coming back and can take his spot on the PK, he's a guy I wouldn't be shocked to see included in a package this year.

I don’t disagree with anything you say but I think a lot of his lack of success 5v5 is due to the line he is on. He clearly isn’t ready for first line minutes and the Isles 3rd line lacks offensive talent.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

I love Mike Reilly. He does things that makes me question the last time I've seen an Isles d-man pull that off...and it's usually someone like Viz, Lubo or Streit.

And I've seen Lane use him and Tuzzo in the waning minutes of games more recently while sheltering Aho and Bolduc. Their contributions keeping this defense afloat cannot be ignored.

 

[Zeeker]

I love Mike Reilly. He does things that makes me question the last time I've seen an Isles d-man pull that off...and it's usually someone like Viz, Lubo or Streit.

I know of Lubomir Visnovsky… are Viz and Lubo both referring to him?

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

I know of Lubomir Visnovsky… are Viz and Lubo both referring to him?

Lol good catch, I meant Zid - Marek Zidlicky

 

[periferal]

Henrique, Duclair, Ferraro, and maybe even a guy like Zub. Those all are our targets

Given how this team is playing to adding a forward is probably a luxury given the lack of cap space. Even if Sorokin was playing like it was 2022 I'd want to add to the defense...So the fact that he's off his game (and our PK is worst in the league) makes me want to add a difference-maker on D in the worst way. That could really change things.

 

[doublechili]

I know I'm going to get some hate for this, but I want to bring up a couple of Holmstrom facts before everyone goes off the deep end:

- He's shooting 31%. For comparison, if Nelson was shooting 31% he would have 33 goals right now and be on pace for 87. Wayne Gretzky maxed out at 26%. This will not continue. I've seen people calling him a 25 goal scorer on this board, but if he had Barzal's shooting percentage he'd be on pace for 9 over a full season. Go check out how Kuzmenko is doing this year for a look at the other side of the coin.

- The reason he is shooting 31% is because almost all of his chances come on a 2-1 or a breakaway. They're all super high danger looks and he's done an (unsustainably) amazing job of burying them. The issue is that he's really not getting pucks on net in any other situation. He has 19 shots at 5v5 this season, and remember he played on the first line for like 10 games.

- I don't feel as though the third line has been doing a great job shutting down other teams. That's obviously not all on Holmstrom, but if he's not getting shots on net and not playing standout defense, that's a recipe for failure. Not saying he's a complete liability or anything, but he has 11 takeaways and 11 giveaways.

- Yes, he is leading the league in shorthanded goals. The PK is also the worst in the league. I would take a middle of the road PK with no shorties over what we have now. I would go as far as to say they're getting all of these 2 on 1s based on their scheme (or lack thereof) on the PK. It almost seems like they're trying harder to find a way to skate the puck out than just clear the puck sometimes.

Don't get me wrong, I love the guy... now. He seems to make the smart play, buries his opportunities more often than not and does it with style when he gets the chance. But even if they keep getting all of these shorthanded 2 on 1s, he's going to reach the other side of variance at some point and stop burying so many of them. And then you're left with a guy who doesn't score at 5v5 (or even gets shots to the net), isn't a shutdown defender, and is a cog in the worst PK in the NHL.


All of this to say, if his value has spiked I think he's a name you keep on the table. Not saying to actively shop the dude, but especially if Parise is coming back and can take his spot on the PK, he's a guy I wouldn't be shocked to see included in a package this year.

You make a lot of great points. I'll throw out another thought that might counterbalance some of them though. Holmstrom seems like he might be one of those responsible young players who is focusing on the little things that coaches want players to do. Especially things like being in position, not getting caught too deep in the offensive zone, etc.. That could explain how he's scoring so many goals on breaks and/or SH. So it's possible that once he gets the little things down and gets more comfortable as an NHLer, he'll be more comfortable playing on the offensive zone. And then he might start getting more shots, and his goal total will go up even as his shooting % goes down.

I remember when Kenny Jonsson was young and fans hated on him for not contributing enough offense. But he absolutely was focusing on the defensive side early on and then increased his offense as he gained experience. Different positions, but I could see Holmstrom being a similar deal.

 

[seafoam]

I miss Lubo.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Holmstrom seems like he might be one of those responsible young players who is focusing on the little things that coaches want players to do. Especially things like being in position, not getting caught too deep in the offensive zone, etc..

My observation is the opposite.

 

[CupHolders]

My observation is the opposite.

Holmstrom is observing you? That’s kind of weird.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Holmstrom is observing you? That’s kind of weird.

Holy shit.

 

[CupHolders]

Holy shit.

But in all seriousness, can you clarify what you’re seeing in his game that’s opposite of what was posted? He seems to be defensively conscientious, especially at that age.

 

[Strummergas]

Holmstrom is observing you? That’s kind of weird.

It's amazing what people will do for the right amount of money.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

But in all seriousness, can you clarify what you’re seeing in his game that’s opposite of what was posted? He seems to be defensively conscientious, especially at that age.

I think he's ineffective within structure. He's getting by on instinct and athleticism, which is why he scores off the rush and on broken plays. I don't seem him concentrating on positional play or anything like that. I think that's a rationalization.

 

[periferal]

I miss Lubo.

I miss Streit.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I would be concerned with this if he was a 28-29 year old. He is showing promise and the possibility of more growth. No he won’t shoot at 31%. But the shots he makes are skilled scorer goals.

The attempts on net, should increase with experience and further development.

What’s important is that the skill and drive appears to be there. As is the room for growth due to his age.

I appreciate all of the thoughtful responses to this post. Was expecting to get shat on like those card guys on twitter )who honestly deserved it).

The one counterargument I'll bring up about his age is Beau, who was picked around the same spot as Holmstrom. He had about 6x as many points as Holmstrom at the same age while not exactly lighting the world on fire, maxing out at 39 over a full season. That same dude is probably going to join his fourth team next season. While I totally agree Holmstrom has shown some real killer instinct and flashed a some high end tools, I think it's fair to say that he's actually behind in development for his age.

It's easy to see the potential though... just wondering what would need to change to see him fully realize it.

 

[xECK29x]

I appreciate all of the thoughtful responses to this post. Was expecting to get shat on like those card guys on twitter )who honestly deserved it).

The one counterargument I'll bring up about his age is Beau, who was picked around the same spot as Holmstrom. He had about 6x as many points as Holmstrom at the same age while not exactly lighting the world on fire, maxing out at 39 over a full season. That same dude is probably going to join his fourth team next season. While I totally agree Holmstrom has shown some real killer instinct and flashed a some high end tools, I think it's fair to say that he's actually behind in development for his age.

It's easy to see the potential though... just wondering what would need to change to see him fully realize it.

I don't think anyone should be projecting Holmstrom at this point, his analytics don't tell any kind of story and yes his finishing percentage is completely unsustainable. Just have fun with it while it lasts.