I know I'm going to get some hate for this, but I want to bring up a couple of Holmstrom facts before everyone goes off the deep end:
- He's shooting 31%. For comparison, if Nelson was shooting 31% he would have 33 goals right now and be on pace for 87. Wayne Gretzky maxed out at 26%. This will not continue. I've seen people calling him a 25 goal scorer on this board, but if he had Barzal's shooting percentage he'd be on pace for 9 over a full season. Go check out how Kuzmenko is doing this year for a look at the other side of the coin.
- The reason he is shooting 31% is because almost all of his chances come on a 2-1 or a breakaway. They're all super high danger looks and he's done an (unsustainably) amazing job of burying them. The issue is that he's really not getting pucks on net in any other situation. He has 19 shots at 5v5 this season, and remember he played on the first line for like 10 games.
- I don't feel as though the third line has been doing a great job shutting down other teams. That's obviously not all on Holmstrom, but if he's not getting shots on net and not playing standout defense, that's a recipe for failure. Not saying he's a complete liability or anything, but he has 11 takeaways and 11 giveaways.
- Yes, he is leading the league in shorthanded goals. The PK is also the worst in the league. I would take a middle of the road PK with no shorties over what we have now. I would go as far as to say they're getting all of these 2 on 1s based on their scheme (or lack thereof) on the PK. It almost seems like they're trying harder to find a way to skate the puck out than just clear the puck sometimes.
Don't get me wrong, I love the guy... now. He seems to make the smart play, buries his opportunities more often than not and does it with style when he gets the chance. But even if they keep getting all of these shorthanded 2 on 1s, he's going to reach the other side of variance at some point and stop burying so many of them. And then you're left with a guy who doesn't score at 5v5 (or even gets shots to the net), isn't a shutdown defender, and is a cog in the worst PK in the NHL.
All of this to say, if his value has spiked I think he's a name you keep on the table. Not saying to actively shop the dude, but especially if Parise is coming back and can take his spot on the PK, he's a guy I wouldn't be shocked to see included in a package this year.