Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[MJF]

The estimated amount on Capfriendly is correct. The Islanders will have just shy of $6.2M in space at the deadline if nothing else changes (but it will because Holmstrom is going to be recalled, so it'll probably be closer to $5.4M).

Contracts are paid out during the course of the season so as the season progresses the amount of money every player is owed decreases. When a player is acquired they're only owed what is remaining on their contract for the year and that's why teams accrue cap space. Using LTIR negates this cap space accrual though so teams try not do use that if they can avoid it.

As for injuries and whatnot, accrual depends on the type of injuries and whether or not a player will need to be placed on LTIR. We have seen teams try to accrue more space by doing paper transactions over recent years too. An example might be sending Holmstrom down to the minors (since he doesn't require waivers) for a stretch where the Islanders don't plan on using him but never having him physically report to Bridgeport. It drops the roster from 23 players to 22 players for a small duration and decreases the cap hit by ~$800K for a short period of time.



Absolutely. I think the phasing out should've happened when Johnston was re-signed to a multi-year deal before Martin was re-upped. At the time it seemed like that was the route they were heading but then reversed course a bit. My bigger issue is with the phasing out of Clutterbuck. Since he had multiple broken vertebrae I've thought they needed to start looking for new options. Maybe he's too important to the locker room for that but he's been a ticking time bomb ever since then (and the hand/wrist injury doesn't help either).

The fact that Clutterbuck is on the roster is also the reason a guy like Hudson Fasching makes the team. Had Lou not re-signed Cal (on the day he was having back surgery!), there wouldn't have been this constant need to dedicate a roster spot for a replacement for the 40-odd games Clutterbuck usually misses.

 

[SI]

He is not NHL quality. There were 4 forwards at 45 xGF or lower on the Isles last season with at least 200 minutes GP:

Clutterbuck 45.4%
Cizikas 45.3%
Bailey 44.3%
Martin 44.0 %

They were objectively the 4 worst forwards on the team. Now I don't think Cizikas is that bad, he's just on a bad line. Cizikas has no offense to speak of so he is indeed a good 4th line forward. However, while Clutterbuck used to be good, his body appears to be broken. As far as Martin goes, he should play the role Johnston played (25-30) games spelling another guy on the 4th line. That line gets significantly out chanced every game. They are simply too slow. As the rest of the league gets faster, this line gets slower.

I truly love these guys. They have given more to this organization in terms of blood and sweat than anyone over the last few years. It's a speed game. They are slow. They are getting older and slower. They are also being deployed incorrectly by being used in important high leverage situations under the guise of being good defensively. They are not. They are a sieve as a unit. I don't care about his 19 points. Martin is an overall net negative on the ice at this point of his career.

You do realize that the identity line has like 70% d zone start and before touting those numbers compare that to other 4th line players in the league. I understand that +\~ is no longer a reputable metric for some but in this case I would consider CC was +9, Martin +4 and Casey was ~2.

Not to mention that two of those players were big contributors to a top 10 PK last season.

If you get 200+ hits, 5-10goals, 11-13 minutes a game, leadership, quality PK, 55% faceoff wins, and good health 60-70 GPS from these 3 - I’ll sign up for that instead of a rag tag group of fringe NHLers making the league minimum to ease cap.

I understand that some here see Gauthier and Fasching as potential pieces to replace Cal for instance - neither of these players - play a heavy game or fit that identity and maybe the argument to is not against the line but against the identity itself

 

[LeapOnOver]

We've talked about the 4th line to death. I think we are pretty much all in agreement that they bring an important metric to the lineup, just we think they should be used less and less as they wear down, not keep throwing them out there the same minutes as the other three lines. I'm hoping Lambert doesn't fall into that trap.

 

[JPIsles18]

You do realize that the identity line has like 70% d zone start and before touting those numbers compare that to other 4th line players in the league. I understand that +\~ is no longer a reputable metric for some but in this case I would consider CC was +9, Martin +4 and Casey was ~2.

Not to mention that two of those players were big contributors to a top 10 PK last season.

If you get 200+ hits, 5-10goals, 11-13 minutes a game, leadership, quality PK, 55% faceoff wins, and good health 60-70 GPS from these 3 - I’ll sign up for that instead of a rag tag group of fringe NHLers making the league minimum to ease cap.

I understand that some here see Gauthier and Fasching as potential pieces to replace Cal for instance - neither of these players - play a heavy game or fit that identity and maybe the argument to is not against the line but against the identity itself

Your points are valid. A little rosy, but valid. If the Isles had 3 strong lines that could score, it would be even more valid. However, because of overall poor roster construction, the fact that the 4th line gets pummeled in high leverage situations, despite high defensive zone starts sticks out like a sore thumb. That's on the organization. If they were relied on to play 9-10 minutes and provide physicality and brutality, while the other 3 lines provide scoring and overall positive value, that would be acceptable. However, that's not the case. The 4th line is relied on to actually provide defensive value with defensive zone starts and go against top players. That's an organization that just doesn't understand how to deploy it's players.

This season, they may actually have 3 competent lines. Maybe they use the 4th line appropriately and they can be useful. Just trying to be positive.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

not keep throwing them out there the same minutes as the other three lines.

That's not happening, though.

 

[LeapOnOver]

That's not happening, though.

I'll remain optimistic despite my better judgment.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

All this talk about the 4th line going into the season...

Meanwhile the 1st line needs to step the f*** UP if this team wants to be anywhere near competitive. I'm looking at you Bo-Zal.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I'll remain optimistic despite my better judgment.

So, you're mad about what you think might happen?

 

[SI]

Your points are valid. A little rosy, but valid. If the Isles had 3 strong lines that could score, it would be even more valid. However, because of overall poor roster construction, the fact that the 4th line gets pummeled in high leverage situations, despite high defensive zone starts sticks out like a sore thumb. That's on the organization. If they were relied on to play 9-10 minutes and provide physicality and brutality, while the other 3 lines provide scoring and overall positive value, that would be acceptable. However, that's not the case. The 4th line is relied on to actually provide defensive value with defensive zone starts and go against top players. That's an organization that just doesn't understand how to deploy it's players.

This season, they may actually have 3 competent lines. Maybe they use the 4th line appropriately and they can be useful. Just trying to be positive.

I appreciate you are trying to be positive.

Also, not being rosy - just presenting the facts and projecting what they have ALWAYS done.

I believe your 9-10 minutes a game isn’t that far off what they are already doing. Martin average 11:10 last season - that is 2 more shifts. When assessing Cizikas and Cal you have to look at what they do SH. The Isles were top 10 on the PK and they are a big part of that, so those guys are logging in more than that because of their role as PKers. Also, they help to close out games and they replace Martin on that line with someone else. Not being rosy, Again just facts.

Martin also provides the muscle on this team and you do not want to be left with no one on the team who is going to hold the other team responsible for any shenanigans.

I think this entire argument on the 4th line is SUPER petty- bitching about a line that’s job isn’t to produce and has an entirely different role just reeks of some of the annoying shit I read on this board.

Can’t wait for the season to start.

 

[Tahoeblue]

The estimated amount on Capfriendly is correct. The Islanders will have just shy of $6.2M in space at the deadline if nothing else changes (but it will because Holmstrom is going to be recalled, so it'll probably be closer to $5.4M).

Contracts are paid out during the course of the season so as the season progresses the amount of money every player is owed decreases. When a player is acquired they're only owed what is remaining on their contract for the year and that's why teams accrue cap space. Using LTIR negates this cap space accrual though so teams try not do use that if they can avoid it.

As for injuries and whatnot, accrual depends on the type of injuries and whether or not a player will need to be placed on LTIR. We have seen teams try to accrue more space by doing paper transactions over recent years too. An example might be sending Holmstrom down to the minors (since he doesn't require waivers) for a stretch where the Islanders don't plan on using him but never having him physically report to Bridgeport. It drops the roster from 23 players to 22 players for a small duration and decreases the cap hit by ~$800K for a short period of time.



Absolutely. I think the phasing out should've happened when Johnston was re-signed to a multi-year deal before Martin was re-upped. At the time it seemed like that was the route they were heading but then reversed course a bit. My bigger issue is with the phasing out of Clutterbuck. Since he had multiple broken vertebrae I've thought they needed to start looking for new options. Maybe he's too important to the locker room for that but he's been a ticking time bomb ever since then (and the hand/wrist injury doesn't help either).

Many thanks for the thorough explanation of how cap space is accrued and the ballpark number by the TDL.

 

[periferal]

All this talk about the 4th line going into the season...

Meanwhile the 1st line needs to step the f*** UP if this team wants to be anywhere near competitive. I'm looking at you Bo-Zal.

I agree in theory, but the fact that you're addressing the "1st line," but only call out 2 players tells me the GM has not "stepped the f*** UP" to this point and actually created a legit 1st line.

Barzal and Horvat are nice players, but they ain't all-world/future hall of famers McDavid & Draisaitl who could play with anyone and produce at an elite level.

It's just amazing that for 20+ years now no islander GM has been able to put 3 deserving players together for the 1st line for any extended period of time.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I agree in theory, but the fact that you're addressing the "1st line," but only call out 2 players tells me the GM has not "stepped the f*** UP" to this point and actually created a legit 1st line.

Barzal and Horvat are nice players, but they ain't all-world/future hall of famers McDavid & Draisaitl who could play with anyone and produce at an elite level.

It's just amazing that for 20+ years now no islander GM has been able to put 3 deserving players together for the 1st line for any extended period of time.

So in order for a first line to be "legit" it needs to have future hall of famers on it? Hmmm... Looks like not many teams have a first line...

And 1st lines rarely have 3 all stars on it. More often than not, you have two guys that contribute most of the offense with one of the wingers playing more of a supporting role.

The Islanders were desperate for a top line forward and they addressed that with the Horvat acquisition. Is he perfect? No. Is he McDavid? No. But with Horvat, Barzal, Lee, Engval and Nelson, they can certainly ice two top lines that are playoff-caliber.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

So in order for a first line to be "legit" it needs to have future hall of famers on it? Hmmm... Looks like not many teams have a first line...

I mean, they had Barzal, Horvat and Lee on a line last year, right? How is that not 3 deserving players? Lee scored 28 goals. I mean, no teams besides Edmonton has 2 top 5 scorers on their line. It's just unrealistic. If the argument is that you want Barzal and Horvat to produce more, I can see that, especially with Barzal. The whole dynamic changes if Barzal can elevate his production to be a top 30 scorer, like everyone believes he can. But, the team has deserving players to play in these roles.

 

[doublechili]

I mean, they had Barzal, Horvat and Lee on a line last year, right? How is that not 3 deserving players? Lee scored 28 goals. I mean, no teams besides Edmonton has 2 top 5 scorers on their line. It's just unrealistic. If the argument is that you want Barzal and Horvat to produce more, I can see that, especially with Barzal. The whole dynamic changes if Barzal can elevate his production to be a top 30 scorer, like everyone believes he can. But, the team has deserving players to play in these roles.

Agree. The Isles have 3 skaters who were in the top 60 in the league in goal-scoring last year:

Horvat 24th
Nelson 33rd
Lee 57th

In a 32 team league, and I'm no mathematician, I think there would be 96 players on a "1st line".

 

[JPIsles18]

I appreciate you are trying to be positive.

Also, not being rosy - just presenting the facts and projecting what they have ALWAYS done.

Being done, but not well.

I believe your 9-10 minutes a game isn’t that far off what they are already doing. Martin average 11:10 last season - that is 2 more shifts. When assessing Cizikas and Cal you have to look at what they do SH. The Isles were top 10 on the PK and they are a big part of that, so those guys are logging in more than that because of their role as PKers. Also, they help to close out games and they replace Martin on that line with someone else. Not being rosy, Again just facts.

They should not be closing out games. Cizikas is the only defensively competent forward on that line.

Martin also provides the muscle on this team and you do not want to be left with no one on the team who is going to hold the other team responsible for any shenanigans.

There's a way to have muscle without being bad at hockey. With Johnston now gone, Martin can easily be that 13th forward. On most great teams, a guy like Martin is a 13th forward.

I think this entire argument on the 4th line is SUPER petty- bitching about a line that’s job isn’t to produce and has an entirely different role just reeks of some of the annoying shit I read on this board.

So the argument about the fourth line isn't entirely about the 4th line. It's more about roster construction. This is a team that can supposedly roll 4 lines. That is a common misconception amongst fans that don't watch the games. Unfortunately it isn't. They have 3 average to above average lines and then the black hole that is the 4th line. Now if the Isles had 3 other lines that were a consistent threat to score, then it'd be fine having a line that doesn't do anything but physically punish the other teams players. However, there is such an imbalance amongst the other lines over the last two seasons because of poor roster construction, the 4th line is being relied on to do more than they should be designed for.

Can’t wait for the season to start.

Same.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Agree. The Isles have 3 skaters who were in the top 60 in the league in goal-scoring last year:

Horvat 24th
Nelson 33rd
Lee 57th

In a 32 team league, and I'm no mathematician, I think there would be 96 players on a "1st line".

I think if you do the math correctly, there are 31 teams with a first line but unfortunately the Isles are not among them.

 

[YearlyLottery]

The fact that Clutterbuck is on the roster is also the reason a guy like Hudson Fasching makes the team. Had Lou not re-signed Cal (on the day he was having back surgery!), there wouldn't have been this constant need to dedicate a roster spot for a replacement for the 40-odd games Clutterbuck usually misses.

In the playoffs Fasching made a ton of turnovers in the neutral zone and defensive zone from my memory. I would think this is something that should be fixed rather easily IF the coaching staff had an eye on this.

 

[MJF]

In the playoffs Fasching made a ton of turnovers in the neutral zone and defensive zone from my memory. I would think this is something that should be fixed rather easily IF the coaching staff had an eye on this.

It wasn’t just the playoffs. Fasching is weak in his own end. There were a number of times that opposing players spun Fasching like a turnstile going past him.

 

[PK Cronin]

It wasn’t just the playoffs. Fasching is weak in his own end. There were a number of times that opposing players spun Fasching like a turnstile going past him.

I think it's a serviceable fill in guy but shouldn't be a mainstay in the lineup. His possession game in the offensive zone is good but he doesn't do the other things that well.

 

[MJF]

I think it's a serviceable fill in guy but shouldn't be a mainstay in the lineup. His possession game in the offensive zone is good but he doesn't do the other things that well.

Cal Clutterbuck takes up 2 roster spots. One for him, one for his injury replacement.

 

[The Real JT]

The Islanders were desperate for a top line forward and they addressed that with the Horvat acquisition. Is he perfect? No. Is he McDavid? No. But with Horvat, Barzal, Lee, Engval and Nelson, they can certainly ice two top lines that are playoff-caliber.

Playoff caliber? Perhaps. Cup contenders? Unlikely. That’s especially true if you combine the top 2 lines with the subpar talent in the bottom six.

As much as this team needs Barzal and Horvat to shine, even more so they need Dobson to emerge as a PP stud and Sorokin to keep the magic going.

 

[SI]

Being done, but not well.


They should not be closing out games. Cizikas is the only defensively competent forward on that line.

There's a way to have muscle without being bad at hockey. With Johnston now gone, Martin can easily be that 13th forward. On most great teams, a guy like Martin is a 13th forward.

So the argument about the fourth line isn't entirely about the 4th line. It's more about roster construction. This is a team that can supposedly roll 4 lines. That is a common misconception amongst fans that don't watch the games. Unfortunately it isn't. They have 3 average to above average lines and then the black hole that is the 4th line. Now if the Isles had 3 other lines that were a consistent threat to score, then it'd be fine having a line that doesn't do anything but physically punish the other teams players. However, there is such an imbalance amongst the other lines over the last two seasons because of poor roster construction, the 4th line is being relied on to do more than they should be designed for.

Same.

Cizikas is over 54% at the faceoff dot and is a strong PK when they are closing out games he absolutely should be out there.

Cal is also a very strong Pk and so when you are closing out games - you want guys who can shut things down. I don’t get the criticism on Cal - I think his health is a concern but when healthy he certainly should be out there closing out games

I disagree with you - this is a team that has rolled 4 lines and can - 5on 5 hockey is not the issue - if the team is able to improve on the PP, then you will see a team competing for those top spots in the metro.

The team plays a heavy game - if Martin goes 7-13-20 with 250 hits and is a +2 like he was last season playing 11 minutes a game playing LW 4 and brings all the other intangibles in terms of leadership, muscle, and identity - I’ll take that.
I will also sign up for the same from Cal - if he can replicate last season but playing 15 more games. He was + 9 last year… most lines that are playing 70% def. Zone starts are going to getting buried by shots and are always going to have poor shot metrics.

FYI - if you were to rebuild this 4th line - who are they? How much are you spending? And role or roles are they playing? What is your expectation with regard to production?

 

[The Real JT]

Cizikas is over 54% at the faceoff dot and is a strong PK when they are closing out games he absolutely should be out there.

Cal is also a very strong Pk and so when you are closing out games - you want guys who can shut things down. I don’t get the criticism on Cal - I think his health is a concern but when healthy he certainly should be out there closing out games

I disagree with you - this is a team that has rolled 4 lines and can - 5on 5 hockey is not the issue - if the team is able to improve on the PP, then you will see a team competing for those top spots in the metro.

The team plays a heavy game - if Martin goes 7-13-20 with 250 hits and is a +2 like he was last season playing 11 minutes a game playing LW 4 and brings all the other intangibles in terms of leadership, muscle, and identity - I’ll take that.
I will also sign up for the same from Cal - if he can replicate last season but playing 15 more games. He was + 9 last year… most lines that are playing 70% def. Zone starts are going to getting buried by shots and are always going to have poor shot metrics.

FYI - if you were to rebuild this 4th line - who are they? How much are you spending? And role or roles are they playing? What is your expectation with regard to production?

If there were a Vegas line on that parlay of performances you’d be looking at a 10-1 payoff.

I like your optimism though.

 

[MarsTBOW]

Cal Clutterbuck takes up 2 roster spots. One for him, one for his injury replacement.

That is funny, But Clutter has value....

 

[Chardo]

Just trying to remember the last time the internet was excited about an upcoming Islanders season. Oh right, the internet didn't exist.