Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[PK Cronin]

Maybe. Last season the 4th line's even strength mins per game were:

Cizikas: 12.39 mins
Martin: 11.04 mins
Clutter: 10.32 mins

I don't know how that compares to the rest of the league, but it doesn't seem outlandish when you're allocating 60 minutes to 4 lines. I do think at this point it's something that's going to resolve itself through age/injuries and with replacements in the pipeline (or already on the team -not to mention the Martin and Clutterbuck contracts running out, assuming Lou doesn't extend them!). But yeah, if Lambert is wise he'll reduce their time and give them some nights off.

I don't know how that compares to most fourth liners but when you factor in their PK time too, they're playing too much. I'm not sure if they just don't have the legs they used to or they're getting tired or both, but it's just rough watching them be less effective than ever before. They used to be on top of guys instantly and cause the defense to fumble the puck or make mistakes because of the physicality and their quickness of getting to them...now, not so much. They're throwing hits way after it's gone and the other team is cruising through the neutral zone. We'll see if anything has changed this year.

I'd like more rest for them and to start integrating other guys. Clutterbuck cannot be counted on to stay healthy all year anyway.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

It was a miracle season for Martin. Somewhere between 2019 and last year was a whole bunch of flotsam from him. He wasn’t worth the investment.

Wow, good word.

Haven't seen that made use of in ages.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

As far as defense goes, I also agree about poor depth. Even Bolduc has not shown to be a competent 5/6 dman to this point.

Anything but. They kind of just have to keep him up here and switch him in for Aho once every 3 or 4 games. He's waiver-eligible, but he's been playing like a liability in the preseason.

Maybe just practicing with the team and getting direct feedback from the expanded staff can round him up a bit, even if "shifts" in the AHL would seem ideal?

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Our top 6 wingers and lack of a stud PMD/PP guy has been a problem. The 4th line has been fine - I mean, its a 4th line - what do we expect? And maybe as soon as next year it's going to be Cizikas with guys like Gauthier, Fasching and Liukas (and I wouldn't be surprised if that transition starts this season).

I also feel we've seen Lambert expand Cizikas' role a bit, giving him a shot at more variety with some other combinations and wingers when situational circumstances have required his skillset.

 

[MJF]

Wow, good word.

Haven't seen that made use of in ages.

I tried to capture the spirit of the thing.

I also feel we've seen Lambert expand Cizikas' role a bit, giving him a shot at more variety with some other combinations and wingers when situational circumstances have required his skillset.

Usually when it was time to shorten the bench because we were behind in the 3rd

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

but it's just rough watching them be less effective than ever before.

But, how about in relation to other team's 4th liners? What is the reasonable expectation of a 4th line? Because, you look around the league and 4th lines are generally made of also rans, tweeners, and nobodies. I mean, it's the likes of Luke Glendening, Sammy Blais and Trevor Lewis or some weird guy that played in Finland last year.

 

[PK Cronin]

But, how about in relation to other team's 4th liners? What is the reasonable expectation of a 4th line? Because, you look around the league and 4th lines are generally made of also rans, tweeners, and nobodies. I mean, it's the likes of Luke Glendening, Sammy Blais and Trevor Lewis or some weird guy that played in Finland last year.

I think the expectation coming from our coach/management is not a realistic one and so they're used improperly which compounds the issue of their declining skillset.

Just checked the guys you mentioned and compared them to Martin. Turns out all of them average more time per game than Martin does and both Blais and Lewis outscored Martin too. I don't think points are the end all but it goes to show that even with a career year Martin is still behind guys you randomly selected as being the bottom of the barrel.

 

[LeapOnOver]

I think the expectation coming from our coach/management is not a realistic one and so they're used improperly which compounds the issue of their declining skillset.

Just checked the guys you mentioned and compared them to Martin. Turns out all of them average more time per game than Martin does and both Blais and Lewis outscored Martin too. I don't think points are the end all but it goes to show that even with a career year Martin is still behind guys you randomly selected as being the bottom of the barrel.

How did you get the point totals on "That Weird Guy From Finland"? NHL.COM didn't give me back any results.

 

[PK Cronin]

How did you get the point totals on "That Weird Guy From Finland"? NHL.COM didn't give me back any results.

My bad, I should've said two out of the four guys.

 

[SI90]

We just gained $1.1 million in cap over the next 3 years.

 

[The Real JT]

Many here have been crapping on Martin lately. Dude had 7 goals, 12 assists, +4, and 295 hits (5th in NHL) last season from the 4th line. He had one of his best seasons ever last year. Not saying he will do it again, but let's not act like he's cooked or not NHL quality.

You’re right to give Matty Marts credit. He had an unexpected bounce back season.

You’re even more right regarding the bolded part.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I think the expectation coming from our coach/management is not a realistic one and so they're used improperly which compounds the issue of their declining skillset.

Just checked the guys you mentioned and compared them to Martin. Turns out all of them average more time per game than Martin does and both Blais and Lewis outscored Martin too. I don't think points are the end all but it goes to show that even with a career year Martin is still behind guys you randomly selected as being the bottom of the barrel.

I get that, and a few points here and there matter I suppose and do make a difference. I didn't even pick bottom of the barrel... just typical 4th line guys that jumped to mind. Someone mentioned their on ice totals and it doesn't seem like they're relying on the 4th line all that much, just in specialized cases, which you can make the argument that those cases are on a decline in terms of effectiveness (ie, after an opponent goal, etc)

 

[PK Cronin]

I get that, and a few points here and there matter I suppose and do make a difference. I didn't even pick bottom of the barrel... just typical 4th line guys that jumped to mind. Someone mentioned their on ice totals and it doesn't seem like they're relying on the 4th line all that much, just in specialized cases, which you can make the argument that those cases are on a decline in terms of effectiveness (ie, after an opponent goal, etc)

From the guys you mentioned this certainly seems to be the case and I was wrong if that's a trend across the NHL. I don't know if there's an easy way to find the TOI for entire lines so looking at fourth liners around the league is probably the closest thing we have.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

From the guys you mentioned this certainly seems to be the case and I was wrong if that's a trend across the NHL. I don't know if there's an easy way to find the TOI for entire lines so looking at fourth liners around the league is probably the closest thing we have.

I mean, the team used this effective line for a long time and it was useful for them. This is basically the last hurrah for this line, since Martin's and Clutter's contracts expire at the end of this year.

My guess is that they'll try to squeeze the last bit of usefulness out of them and move on. I don't think this is a terrible plan, really. They seemed to pick up a few players as a bulwark, so there's internal options if they're not effective or injured. The team doesn't seem willing to tolerate chronic poor performance, despite tenure, as witnessed by the Bailey situation last year.

I see this as a problem that will resolve itself. They either do fine and it's all good, or they struggle and the other options are implemented.

 

[MikeyMike01]

We just gained $1.1 million in cap over the next 3 years.

We did not. If Ross was in Bridgeport, he counted for $0. If he was in the NHL, he counted for $300k more than his possible replacement.

 

[Duanesutter12]

I don't know how that compares to most fourth liners but when you factor in their PK time too, they're playing too much. I'm not sure if they just don't have the legs they used to or they're getting tired or both, but it's just rough watching them be less effective than ever before. They used to be on top of guys instantly and cause the defense to fumble the puck or make mistakes because of the physicality and their quickness of getting to them...now, not so much. They're throwing hits way after it's gone and the other team is cruising through the neutral zone. We'll see if anything has changed this year.

I'd like more rest for them and to start integrating other guys. Clutterbuck cannot be counted on to stay healthy all year anyway.

Yeah they've been such a staple of this team going back to 2014 that it's hard to reconcile with their current play. It's kind of like an aging parent- you love them and want the best for them but you also have to accept that they're just not the same (yes, I'm going through the aging parent thing right now). Their sweet spot was 2020 and '21 which were also our best years outside of the cup run of the eighties. Watching them salt away games was a thing of beauty and it was not just their grit that was fun to watch but their mastery of the game as well. I just can't see them being productive for an entire season.

 

[SI90]

We did not. If Ross was in Bridgeport, he counted for $0. If he was in the NHL, he counted for $300k more than his possible replacement.

Didn’t realize he had a 2way deal. Either way that’s $1.1 that we don’t have occupying our cap. Weather he’s on another team or in BPort that cap is gone.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Didn’t realize he had a 2way deal. Either way that’s $1.1 that we don’t have occupying our cap. Weather he’s on another team or in BPort that cap is gone.

It's not a two-way contract issue, it's that his salary lies below the minimum threshold to bury a contract. You're right in that, regardless of the reason, the salary is gone. Either by clearing waivers or being claimed, the result is the same and it's $1.1m the Isles don't have to deal with.

 

[Isles72]

We did not. If Ross was in Bridgeport, he counted for $0. If he was in the NHL, he counted for $300k more than his possible replacement.

correct .
if anything , they have 1 less contract towards the 50 max total which adds roster flex in a variety of ways

 

[JPIsles18]

Many here have been crapping on Martin lately. Dude had 7 goals, 12 assists, +4, and 295 hits (5th in NHL) last season from the 4th line. He had one of his best seasons ever last year. Not saying he will do it again, but let's not act like he's cooked or not NHL quality.

He is not NHL quality. There were 4 forwards at 45 xGF or lower on the Isles last season with at least 200 minutes GP:

Clutterbuck 45.4%
Cizikas 45.3%
Bailey 44.3%
Martin 44.0 %

They were objectively the 4 worst forwards on the team. Now I don't think Cizikas is that bad, he's just on a bad line. Cizikas has no offense to speak of so he is indeed a good 4th line forward. However, while Clutterbuck used to be good, his body appears to be broken. As far as Martin goes, he should play the role Johnston played (25-30) games spelling another guy on the 4th line. That line gets significantly out chanced every game. They are simply too slow. As the rest of the league gets faster, this line gets slower.

I truly love these guys. They have given more to this organization in terms of blood and sweat than anyone over the last few years. It's a speed game. They are slow. They are getting older and slower. They are also being deployed incorrectly by being used in important high leverage situations under the guise of being good defensively. They are not. They are a sieve as a unit. I don't care about his 19 points. Martin is an overall net negative on the ice at this point of his career.

 

[PK Cronin]

I mean, the team used this effective line for a long time and it was useful for them. This is basically the last hurrah for this line, since Martin's and Clutter's contracts expire at the end of this year.

My guess is that they'll try to squeeze the last bit of usefulness out of them and move on. I don't think this is a terrible plan, really. They seemed to pick up a few players as a bulwark, so there's internal options if they're not effective or injured. The team doesn't seem willing to tolerate chronic poor performance, despite tenure, as witnessed by the Bailey situation last year.

I see this as a problem that will resolve itself. They either do fine and it's all good, or they struggle and the other options are implemented.

For where we are now I don't think it's a terrible plan so long as they're able to cut the cord when they are underperforming. I'm skeptical that will happen and they'll be given too much leeway because of their reputation.

I think Lamoriello made a mistake bringing back Martin and Clutterbuck on their most recent deals and would've liked to have seen them replaced back then. It's too late to undo that now though.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

If there is anything the Islanders do have it is 4th-line capable AHL players, who overall wouldn't be any worse than the aging and slowing down wings of Matt Martin (34) and Cal Clutterbuck (turning 36 in a matter of weeks).

Yes, they need their minutes cut and the value of that "identity line" has come to pass, hopefully Lambert realizes this.

No, it is more than a safe bet that what will define our chances this season (aside from the obvious that Sorokin absolutely MUST remain one of the top goalies in the league) is what offensive production we get from the top 9 and how much we improve on the power play......period. Failure to improve measurably in both areas will equal a long season IMO.

I do not foresee a major decline in our PK and defense, even if we are thinner with bodies that most teams because I think we have guys who can play a significant role in that regard.

Scoring is key and I think everyone knows it.

1)Matthew Barzal has to net 25+ goals and be a point per game player
2)Need as close to 100 goals as possible from the 3 who have netted 30+ in the past in Horvat, Nelson and Lee
3)Need a collective 100 goals from the other 7-8 players who likely fill those other five spots in the Top 9 over the course of the season (Palmieri, Engvall, Wahlstrom, JGP, Fasching, Gauthier, etc)
4) Around 50 or so goals from our blueline (Dobson and Aho/Bolduc combining for 25 or so and the rest (Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield and Romanov combining for the same)

I don't see it personally, but I am hoping for the best....

 

[Tahoeblue]

Question for any captologist out there. I know it is early to ask. The Isles have a little under 1.4 million in cap space at the moment. Obviously, injuries may occur and transactions could affect the number in the coming months. What is the formula or ballpark number of accruing cap space? We are a long way until Feb/March with TDL, but curious how much space the Isles may have as the TDL approaches.

Capfriendly does have a column of TDL projected cap space the closer we get.

Thanks in advance

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I think Lamoriello made a mistake bringing back Martin and Clutterbuck on their most recent deals and would've liked to have seen them replaced back then. It's too late to undo that now though.

It's a trade-off. You have continuity and team structure and you have aging vets with diminishing returns. How to manage that is a balancing act. It's a valid argument to say they should have cut the cord, but the gradual phase out, giving yourself time to replenish those roles, is also valid, especially when you consider that the top lines went under a moderate revamp.

I see some of the statistics and I wonder how much usage plays into those numbers. I'm not arguing that they were great or anything last year, but there's external factors to consider as well.

 

[PK Cronin]

Question for any captologist out there. I know it is early to ask. The Isles have a little under 1.4 million in cap space at the moment. Obviously, injuries may occur and transactions could affect the number in the coming months. What is the formula or ballpark number of accruing cap space? We are a long way until Feb/March with TDL, but curious how much space the Isles may have as the TDL approaches.

Capfriendly does have a column of TDL projected cap space the closer we get.

Thanks in advance

The estimated amount on Capfriendly is correct. The Islanders will have just shy of $6.2M in space at the deadline if nothing else changes (but it will because Holmstrom is going to be recalled, so it'll probably be closer to $5.4M).

Contracts are paid out during the course of the season so as the season progresses the amount of money every player is owed decreases. When a player is acquired they're only owed what is remaining on their contract for the year and that's why teams accrue cap space. Using LTIR negates this cap space accrual though so teams try not do use that if they can avoid it.

As for injuries and whatnot, accrual depends on the type of injuries and whether or not a player will need to be placed on LTIR. We have seen teams try to accrue more space by doing paper transactions over recent years too. An example might be sending Holmstrom down to the minors (since he doesn't require waivers) for a stretch where the Islanders don't plan on using him but never having him physically report to Bridgeport. It drops the roster from 23 players to 22 players for a small duration and decreases the cap hit by ~$800K for a short period of time.

It's a trade-off. You have continuity and team structure and you have aging vets with diminishing returns. How to manage that is a balancing act. It's a valid argument to say they should have cut the cord, but the gradual phase out, giving yourself time to replenish those roles, is also valid, especially when you consider that the top lines went under a moderate revamp.

I see some of the statistics and I wonder how much usage plays into those numbers. I'm not arguing that they were great or anything last year, but there's external factors to consider as well.

Absolutely. I think the phasing out should've happened when Johnston was re-signed to a multi-year deal before Martin was re-upped. At the time it seemed like that was the route they were heading but then reversed course a bit. My bigger issue is with the phasing out of Clutterbuck. Since he had multiple broken vertebrae I've thought they needed to start looking for new options. Maybe he's too important to the locker room for that but he's been a ticking time bomb ever since then (and the hand/wrist injury doesn't help either).