Cizikas is over 54% at the faceoff dot and is a strong PK when they are closing out games he absolutely should be out there.
Cal is also a very strong Pk and so when you are closing out games - you want guys who can shut things down. I don’t get the criticism on Cal - I think his health is a concern but when healthy he certainly should be out there closing out games
I disagree with you - this is a team that has rolled 4 lines and can - 5on 5 hockey is not the issue - if the team is able to improve on the PP, then you will see a team competing for those top spots in the metro.
The team plays a heavy game - if Martin goes 7-13-20 with 250 hits and is a +2 like he was last season playing 11 minutes a game playing LW 4 and brings all the other intangibles in terms of leadership, muscle, and identity - I’ll take that.
I will also sign up for the same from Cal - if he can replicate last season but playing 15 more games. He was + 9 last year… most lines that are playing 70% def. Zone starts are going to getting buried by shots and are always going to have poor shot metrics.
So you are excusing poor defensive metrics because of the defensive zone starts. There are players out there that have high defensive zone starts that have much better defensive metrics. That's the whole point. 45% xGF is not ok for a line. It needs to at least be closer to 50%. Sorokin is the only reason it's not a complete bloodbath when they're on the ice. Individually they may be good defensively (except Martin). Together, because of their lack of speed and inability to possess the puck, they are terrible.
FYI - if you were to rebuild this 4th line - who are they? How much are you spending? And role or roles are they playing? What is your expectation with regard to production?
If you are choosing a 4th line, they are typically replacement level defensively responsible forwards. Some can provide physicality. But physicality is only beneficial if you can win the penalty differential battle.
These are just some of the UFAs that were available.
Zach Aston Reese - 775k, defensively responsible
Jujar Khaira 775k - defensively responsible, big, can fight, bad penalty differential though
Tyler Motte 800k - decent player who was excellent defensively 2 years ago, and draws a ton of penalties
Pius Suter 1.6m - Great defensively, definitely an upgrade over Cizikas. Can also score
Tomas Nosek 1m - Decent player, responsible defensively
This is just some of the players that could make up a cheaper and a more effective 4th line. Say we sign Suter and two of those wingers, that would be a total of 3.2 mil. We are currently spending 5.75. That's over 2.5 in savings with better or at worst, equal results. Not insignificant. The rest of the league is going away from paying 4th liners. The rest of the league is also emphasizing more offense and speed. But in true Lou fashion, when everyone else is zigging, he zags.
