Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Chapin Landvogt]

It would be great if the PP were addressed and Lou added an actual NHL defenseman in the Aho spot. Disappointing.

The key to the success of this season is to have a PP around league average or better.

Just dunno how long the team will be able to scrape and claw itself into contention for that 8th spot if the PP is a net negative?

If they have a good one, then it's a whole other story.

Beyond that, Horvat is the best player this team has acquired in a long time. Our collective size and speed has improved. Our goalie situation is elite. Why not be optimistic?

Well, maybe it's just because we haven't seen it all go click yet?

Definitely a decent argument for optimism, even if Horvat has pretty clear-cut career averages, which he played above while he was in Vancouver last season.

 

[periferal]

I keep thinking...

Imagine this team didn't have a top 3 goaltender in the world.

This team doesn't have anything else exceptional. Not defense. Not scoring. Not a PP. Not coaching. Etc.

Thus the only hope for this team to be exceptional this season is going to be due to Sorokin...And then hopefully everyone around him having better seasons than they did last season.

 

[PJGooch]

If the team can improve toward the mean and go from abysmal to simply bad in the shootout, that's good for 2-4 points on its own.

 

[Glorydays22]

horrible lineup. Same BS every year. That god Football is still going on. This year is going to suck.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I keep thinking...

Careful not to hurt yourself.

 

[IslesNorway]

It’s going to be a drudge of a season. False hopes and silver linings coupled with despair and frustration. We can always hope they find some mojo and surprise us but most likely it’ll be hovering around that .500 mark all the way.

 

[JPIsles18]

I think you put too much stock in publicly available advanced stats. It’s continuously reported that organizations have their own metrics AND guard it like corporate secrets.

There’s a reason those journey men players you referenced remain journey men. And it’s not that the old establishment hasn’t caught on to underlying value seen through widely available advanced stats.

This is very true. Teams have their own statistic departments. Overall, I don't believe they are that far off from public models. However, I have a tough time believing in the Isles advanced statistic models. After all, this is a team that traded a defenseman with elite underlying public metrics (Devon Toews) for two second rounders because they thought 4 mil/year was too much.

Yes, let's trust in the Isles' metrics staff.

 

[The Real JT]

I keep thinking...

Imagine this team didn't have a top 3 goaltender in the world.

This team doesn't have anything else exceptional. Not defense. Not scoring. Not a PP. Not coaching. Etc.

Thus the only hope for this team to be exceptional this season is going to be due to Sorokin...And then hopefully everyone around him having better seasons than they did last season.

Unexpected performance sometimes come out of the blue but my expectations are in line with yours.

A number of top teams have gotten substantially better. For us to compete not just for the playoffs but for the Cup, #1 we need to be healthy. Then we need 2 or more outsized performances over expectations from any of Barzal, Horvat and/or Dobson.

The Isles are a major injury away (Sorokin, Pelech, Barzal or Nelson) from a solid position in the lottery.

LGI

 

[Sparksrus3]

Unexpected performance sometimes come out of the blue but my expectations are in line with yours.

A number of top teams have gotten substantially better. For us to compete not just for the playoffs but for the Cup, #1 we need to be healthy. Then we need 2 or more outsized performances over expectations from any of Barzal, Horvat and/or Dobson.

The Isles are a major injury away (Sorokin, Pelech, Barzal or Nelson) from a solid position in the lottery.

LGI

will this injury be before or after Lou trades the pick for a guy like Connor Garland or Yanni Gourde

 

[PK Cronin]

This is very true. Teams have their own statistic departments. Overall, I don't believe they are that far off from public models. However, I have a tough time believing in the Isles advanced statistic models. After all, this is a team that traded a defenseman with elite underlying public metrics (Devon Toews) for two second rounders because they thought 4 mil/year was too much.

Yes, let's trust in the Isles' metrics staff.

This is incorrect. He was traded because there was a cap crunch around the league, he filed for arbitration and that created more cap uncertainty. He was also the only player who could be traded at the time that would've netted assets instead of attaching assets to get rid of someone. He was a victim of an unfortunate circumstance and nothing more. If Leddy was traded with a second rounder the fans would've lost their minds. Also, Toews wouldn't have become the same player he has been for Colorado because he wouldn't be playing with Makar.

 

[Zeeker]

Careful not to hurt yourself.

Atta boy RDC!

 

[JKP]

It’s game day, beyotches! Pumped for another season. I’m super optimistic for this team and excited to get the season going. LGI!!!!

 

[CupHolders]

This is incorrect. He was traded because there was a cap crunch around the league, he filed for arbitration and that created more cap uncertainty. He was also the only player who could be traded at the time that would've netted assets instead of attaching assets to get rid of someone. He was a victim of an unfortunate circumstance and nothing more. If Leddy was traded with a second rounder the fans would've lost their minds. Also, Toews wouldn't have become the same player he has been for Colorado because he wouldn't be playing with Makar.

All of which Lamoriello (who never reveals anything) stated post trade. Lou even alluded to being happy that it was Colorado, because he felt Toews would do well there.

 

[CupHolders]

This is very true. Teams have their own statistic departments. Overall, I don't believe they are that far off from public models. However, I have a tough time believing in the Isles advanced statistic models. After all, this is a team that traded a defenseman with elite underlying public metrics (Devon Toews) for two second rounders because they thought 4 mil/year was too much.

Yes, let's trust in the Isles' metrics staff.

Toews has repeatedly been addressed on these boards and again in this thread. I have no issue with someone arguing that in hindsight the Isles should’ve done something different than trading Toews. I admit that I now would’ve sold lower on Beauvillier and kept Toews.

But let’s not act as if Lou wanted to trade Toews, when about every article after he was traded has Lou stating they did not want to move him. Just one article example:

Islanders trade Devon Toews to Avalanche to ease salary cap crunch

But, Barzal and Pulock as offer sheet threats, flat cap and Garth Snow higher salary lower cap hit contracts (Leddy) forced their decision.

Finally, the Toews situation just doesn’t compare well to the Isles electing to pay Cizikas 2.5m vs signing Pius Suter at 1.6m.

I just don’t agree that Suter is a better player than Cizikas at their respective costs. Nor do I think NHL professionals (even staunch believers in analytics) do either.

 

[gordie43]

This is incorrect. He was traded because there was a cap crunch around the league, he filed for arbitration and that created more cap uncertainty. He was also the only player who could be traded at the time that would've netted assets instead of attaching assets to get rid of someone. He was a victim of an unfortunate circumstance and nothing more. If Leddy was traded with a second rounder the fans would've lost their minds. Also, Toews wouldn't have become the same player he has been for Colorado because he wouldn't be playing with Makar.

This post should be a sticky for all those to read when Toews comes up. This lays it out clearly why the isles had to move him.

 

[periferal]

horrible lineup. Same BS every year. That god Football is still going on. This year is going to suck.

Only a non Giants/Jets fan could say this.

 

[boredmale]

I keep thinking...

Imagine this team didn't have a top 3 goaltender in the world.

This team doesn't have anything else exceptional. Not defense. Not scoring. Not a PP. Not coaching. Etc.

Thus the only hope for this team to be exceptional this season is going to be due to Sorokin...And then hopefully everyone around him having better seasons than they did last season.

While easier said then done, if we basically play at the same level in every regard to last year but our PP improves to a middle of the pack team we can get 100 points easily.

 

[periferal]

While easier said then done, if we basically play at the same level in every regard to last year but our PP improves to a middle of the pack team we can get 100 points easily.

PP has been a problem forever. Why would it improve if nothing has changed?

And getting 100 points doesn't mean much. The real contenders usually have around 110 these days.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

And getting 100 points doesn't mean much. The real contenders usually have around 110 these days.

 

[PK Cronin]

PP has been a problem forever. Why would it improve if nothing has changed?

And getting 100 points doesn't mean much. The real contenders usually have around 110 these days.

Horvat is here now and Bailey cannot be put on the power play so there's a little change. Hopefully Horvat can make a difference after a full off-season. It doesn't need to be worlds better, just not complete dog shit like last year.

 

[IslesNorway]

Horvat is here now and Bailey cannot be put on the power play so there's a little change. Hopefully Horvat can make a difference after a full off-season. It doesn't need to be worlds better, just not complete dog shit like last year.

Just wait until the injuries set in and Lou signs Bailey to up the power play and scoring

 

[periferal]

Horvat is here now and Bailey cannot be put on the power play so there's a little change. Hopefully Horvat can make a difference after a full off-season. It doesn't need to be worlds better, just not complete dog shit like last year.

I'm all for optimism, but not denial. The Isles were 30th in the league in PP % last season, so the PP does need to be "worlds better" to just be average in the NHL.

And of course we're going to hear that "this is Harvat's first full season...," but surely we should have seen some notable improvement when you add a 30 goal scorer and we didn't. In fact, the Isles were at 15% PP for the regular season...And then dropped to a truly embarrassing 5.56% when it mattered the most in the playoffs (obviously dead last).

And Bailey leaving is some sort of reason to even suggest that might lead to improvement. If anything that's an indictment of the coach for putting him out there or the GM for not giving the coach better options these past few years.

If you really want something to change...Then you need change.

We'll see what happens, but to think the PP is going to markedly improve this season is simply grasping at straws. There's no concrete reason or change we've see to think that it will.

 

[PK Cronin]

I'm all for optimism, but not denial. The Isles were 30th in the league in PP % last season, so the PP does need to be "worlds better" to just be average in the NHL.

And of course we're going to hear that "this is Harvat's first full season...," but surely we should have seen some notable improvement when you add a 30 goal scorer and we didn't. In fact, the Isles were at 15% PP for the regular season...And then dropped to a truly embarrassing 5.56% when it mattered the most in the playoffs (obviously dead last).

And Bailey leaving is some sort of reason to even suggest that might lead to improvement. If anything that's an indictment of the coach for putting him out there or the GM for not giving the coach better options these past few years.

If you really want something to change...Then you need change.

We'll see what happens, but to think the PP is going to markedly improve this season is simply grasping at straws. There's no concrete reason or change we've see to think that it will.

I don't think it needs to markedly improve, just improve.

The Islanders were the second worst team in power play opportunities (222) and they scored the least amount of power player goals in the league (35). Vegas was last in the league in opportunities (207), scored 42 total power play goals, and were ranked 18th in PP%.

The 16th ranked team in PP% was Washington at 21.2%. They scored a total of 52 power play goals.
The 16th ranked team in opportunities was Calgary with 252. They had the 19th best power play at 19.8%.

I think the goal should be to get into the 20th ranked area for the power play and I don't think scoring ~7 more goals is an impossible task. They need to figure out how to a) get more powerplays, b) score on more opportunities, or c) do both. Maybe Horvat and Engvall will lead to drawing more penalties? I'm sure there's a stat for that somewhere but I don't know where to look for it.

 

[Big L]

While easier said then done, if we basically play at the same level in every regard to last year but our PP improves to a middle of the pack team we can get 100 points easily.

Just replacing bailey with engvall is 2 points in the standings at least. An average PP should add another 2-3 points easy.

 

[leeroggy]

PP has been a problem forever. Why would it improve if nothing has changed?

And getting 100 points doesn't mean much. The real contenders usually have around 110 these days.

Forever?
We were 12th in 21-22