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Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

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gordie43 said:
I’m not saying he’s not worth a pick, I just wished his power play numbers were more consistent this season, a few more power play points towards the end of the season would have stolen me a couple of more category wins. I rely on my forward to get me scoring points, defenseman I grab for blocks/hits/PP since most top d play top minutes on PP
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The PP issue is a team thing, not a Dobson thing. I am not keeping him for my pool though because his peripherals aren't as good. AHO is actually better overall when you add hits, blocks etc etc.
 
LeapOnOver said:
Seems like players don't really 'look' to hit the open market anymore. They seem to be trending more in line with basketball where they have an idea where they want to play. I totally agree that trading out some of that offense for defense or goaltending would be wise, but that's what I would use Tavares' money on, not Nylander's. Anyway, they should be able to ship him somewhere he wants to go that has the cap room and get something back, even if it's not equal value, if that's the player they don't want as part of the future.

The only players to really hit the market recently are guys that were on playoff teams where it didn't make sense trading them, and they had pretty legit rosters. (Panarin, Bobrovsky, Gaudreau).
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The youth movement has nearly abolished the third contract, which is consistent with the flat cap era of having to flatten cap hits somewhere. If players can get term on their second contract now, they will get it.

Matthew’s is going shorter to maximize his earnings, however, he is taking all the risk in that situation. He is risking guaranteed money by going short. But his reward for staying healthy is much greater.

I give the guy a ton of credit for going this route.
 
Throttle said:
The youth movement has nearly abolished the third contract, which is consistent with the flat cap era of having to flatten cap hits somewhere. If players can get term on their second contract now, they will get it.

Matthew’s is going shorter to maximize his earnings, however, he is taking all the risk in that situation. He is risking guaranteed money by going short. But his reward for staying healthy is much greater.

I give the guy a ton of credit for going this route.
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It's actually pretty smart and not really that much of a risk. He'll be due a contract at 30 and unless he falls off a cliff, he'll get a lucrative one that will last him to the end of his career. If he'd had tacked on extra years to this contract, his options would be more limited hitting FA at 33-34.
 
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Richie Daggers Crime said:
It's actually pretty smart and not really that much of a risk. He'll be due a contract at 30 and unless he falls off a cliff, he'll get a lucrative one that will last him to the end of his career. If he'd had tacked on extra years to this contract, his options would be more limited hitting FA at 33-34.
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For an often injured player, there’s a risk there in that one of those injuries could undermine his playing ability prior to age 30 and UFA-again. If he took an 8 year deal now, he gets paid no matter what. So, he took the risk on years 5-8.
 
Throttle said:
For an often injured player, there’s a risk there in that one of those injuries could undermine his playing ability prior to age 30 and UFA-again. If he took an 8 year deal now, he gets paid no matter what. So, he took the risk on years 5-8.
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At 13.5 x 4, he's playing with house money after 30. There's been a trend of professional athletes retiring earlier these days and it wouldn't shock me if he called it a career then, particularly if he has a ring. Look at my boy Ali Marpet for a great example of that.
 
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leeroggy said:
At 13.5 x 4, he's playing with house money after 30. There's been a trend of professional athletes retiring earlier these days and it wouldn't shock me if he called it a career then, particularly if he has a ring. Look at my boy Ali Marpet for a great example of that.
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That’s not what he’s doing though. He’s shortening his term to increase his salary, betting on he can probably make $17-20M at 30 vs being locked in at 13.

I give him credit, but for a guy without a cup and mediocre playoff performances, kinda looks like he cares A LOT about his net worth more so than winning.
 
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Throttle said:
That’s not what he’s doing though. He’s shortening his term to increase his salary, betting on he can probably make $17-20M at 30 vs being locked in at 13.

I give him credit, but for a guy without a cup and mediocre playoff performances, kinda looks like he cares A LOT about his net worth more so than winning.
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Neither you nor I know if what you or I are saying is accurate. I'm just pointing out that he might well be thinking he wants to make what he can, so he has options, INCLUDING retiring.
 
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leeroggy said:
Neither you nor I know if what you or I are saying is accurate. I'm just pointing out that he might well be thinking he wants to make what he can, so he has options, INCLUDING retiring.
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We don’t, but can infer by his actions (this is his second of the same situation) that he is layering his contract structure to maximize his earnings.
 
Throttle said:
For an often injured player, there’s a risk there in that one of those injuries could undermine his playing ability prior to age 30 and UFA-again. If he took an 8 year deal now, he gets paid no matter what. So, he took the risk on years 5-8.
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Unless it's an absolute devastating injury, it's not a big deal. The almost certain reward greatly outweighs the risk.

Throttle said:
I give him credit, but for a guy without a cup and mediocre playoff performances, kinda looks like he cares A LOT about his net worth more so than winning.
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If you understand human nature and incentives, it makes perfect sense. Nothing off about it at all.
 
gordie43 said:
I’m not saying he’s not worth a pick, I just wished his power play numbers were more consistent this season, a few more power play points towards the end of the season would have stolen me a couple of more category wins. I rely on my forward to get me scoring points, defenseman I grab for blocks/hits/PP since most top d play top minutes on PP
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Fair enough, it was just the comment about him becoming irrelevant that seemed overly harsh to me.

Throttle said:
That’s not what he’s doing though. He’s shortening his term to increase his salary, betting on he can probably make $17-20M at 30 vs being locked in at 13.

I give him credit, but for a guy without a cup and mediocre playoff performances, kinda looks like he cares A LOT about his net worth more so than winning.
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Maybe, but one of the unmentioned perks of this contract is that if he doesn't have a ring by the end of it and Toronto doesn't appear able to get over the hump, he is an ideal position to go chase one with another team while he is still in his prime. That may have been part of the draw for him to sign it. And maybe with the money he has made at that point, he'd even be willing to take a discount to do that. But who knows.
 
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Richie Daggers Crime said:
Unless it's an absolute devastating injury, it's not a big deal. The almost certain reward greatly outweighs the risk.


If you understand human nature and incentives, it makes perfect sense. Nothing off about it at all.
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Sure, but in the land of superstars (or stars), he’s gone against the grain in terms of … term. Syd went 3-5-12, Ovi went 3-13-5, Mcdavid went 3-8, etc.

No other player of his stature has gone short on term 2x when max term was available to him.
 
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Throttle said:
Sure, but in the land of superstars (or stars), he’s gone against the grain in terms of … term. Syd went 3-5-12, Ovi went 3-13-5, Mcdavid went 3-8, etc.

No other player of his stature has gone short on term 2x when max term was available to him.
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The Crosby and Ovechkin deals were made before the 8 year term cap went into effect.

McDavid signed his deal at 21-22. He'll be 30 when it expires, same as Matthews. He's pretty much guaranteed to get a super lucrative 7-8 year deal when his current deal ends, bringing him to the end of his career, same as Matthews.

Perhaps a fairer comparable is Barkov, who'll be in his mid-30s when his deal expires. Then again, he's not at the same level as Matthews.
 
WangMustGo said:
The older middle/lower end of the roster guys are going to struggle to find a home. Noone has cap space. The cap needs to start moving up.
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Forwards left unsigned -

Heinen - Staal - Tatar
Comtois - Brassard - kessel
Bailey - white - Poolparty
Ritchie - stastny - Motte
Erne - Shaw - ZAR
Khaira - Stepan - Kassian

The bolded players will find a place to play.
Erne, White, and Poolparty find a home in Europe, but time is ticking since season has begun.

Stepan and Stastny retirement candidates
 
SI said:
Forwards left unsigned -

Heinen - Staal - Tatar
Comtois - Brassard - kessel
Bailey - white - Poolparty
Ritchie - stastny - Motte
Erne - Shaw - ZAR
Khaira - Stepan - Kassian

The bolded players will find a place to play.
Erne, White, and Poolparty find a home in Europe, but time is ticking since season has begun.

Stepan and Stastny retirement candidates
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Bailey can't even play in the Top 6 in this lineup . . . That 3rd line might produce 10 goals and 20 assists combined
 
SI said:
Forwards left unsigned -

Heinen - Staal - Tatar
Comtois - Brassard - kessel
Bailey - white - Poolparty
Ritchie - stastny - Motte
Erne - Shaw - ZAR
Khaira - Stepan - Kassian

The bolded players will find a place to play.
Erne, White, and Poolparty find a home in Europe, but time is ticking since season has begun.

Stepan and Stastny retirement candidates
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I’d bring in Motte on a PTO if Parise doesn’t return (which currently looks likely).

If they had cap space, Tatar would probably be a nice depth piece who could deepen the lineup and tuck 20 goals.
 
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