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Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

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GordieHowYaDoin said:
Hey guys, not an Isles fan but here to ask about Noah Dobson for fantasy reasons. Whats the consensus on which pairing he'll be on this coming season? 21k comments in this threas is a lot to go through. Great to see a ton of engagement from the fans here! I did see DFO have him projected on the 3rd pairing at one point this summer and now they've updated it to the 2nd. Is he not 1st Pairing material and any chance for PP time?
Thanks in advance and have a great day.
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Right side of Pulock, Dobson and Mayfield are close in EV time with Dobber being ranked 3rd of three and he's heavily used on the PP.
 
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GordieHowYaDoin said:
Hey guys, not an Isles fan but here to ask about Noah Dobson for fantasy reasons. Whats the consensus on which pairing he'll be on this coming season? 21k comments in this threas is a lot to go through. Great to see a ton of engagement from the fans here! I did see DFO have him projected on the 3rd pairing at one point this summer and now they've updated it to the 2nd. Is he not 1st Pairing material and any chance for PP time?
Thanks in advance and have a great day.
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For fantasy purposes, I wouldn't worry too much about what pairing he is on, as the Isles don't run their pairings in a traditional fashion. Last season, the 3 most common dman pairings essentially broke down as: all around pairing (Pelech--Pulock), defensive pairing (Romanov-Mayfield) and offensive pairing (Aho-Dobson). The pairings were then run fairly evenly.

Though the more defensive pairings did get more minutes, it was only by about 2-3 per game. That did make him a 3rd pairing dman technically, but the difference of just a couple minutes is unlikely to have a notable effect on a dman's stats, especially when they are still deployed primarily in offensive situations, which Dobson likely will continue to be.

The bigger factor on a dman's stats from a minutes standpoint tends to be their PP minutes, and all signs seem to point to Dobson still being used on the first PP unit. I'd say there isn't much reason to expect Dobson's offensive stats to regress, and the main factor that might cause them to improve sigificantly would be if the Isles can figure out the PP and get it to produce at even just a middle of the pack rate.
 
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GordieHowYaDoin said:
Hey guys, not an Isles fan but here to ask about Noah Dobson for fantasy reasons. Whats the consensus on which pairing he'll be on this coming season? 21k comments in this threas is a lot to go through. Great to see a ton of engagement from the fans here! I did see DFO have him projected on the 3rd pairing at one point this summer and now they've updated it to the 2nd. Is he not 1st Pairing material and any chance for PP time?
Thanks in advance and have a great day.
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I don't think it makes a difference who he's paired with. The key thing is it's highly likely he'll continue on first team PP. I had him last year. Took him as a flyer assuming there's a chance he takes the proverbial "jump". He's literally in the same position this year. Will he make that jump? The hell if I know but as a late round fantasy pick it's worth the risk.
 
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GordieHowYaDoin said:
Hey guys, not an Isles fan but here to ask about Noah Dobson for fantasy reasons. Whats the consensus on which pairing he'll be on this coming season? 21k comments in this threas is a lot to go through. Great to see a ton of engagement from the fans here! I did see DFO have him projected on the 3rd pairing at one point this summer and now they've updated it to the 2nd. Is he not 1st Pairing material and any chance for PP time?
Thanks in advance and have a great day.
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Depends on your league set up. For the first half he was a decent mid round pick up, but once the power play fell apart he lost his relevance.
 
Richie Daggers Crime said:
That's close to 30% of your cap space on 2 players. Add Marner and you're around, what... 43%? on 3 players.
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I'm expecting Tavares to go the 35+ contract route when he's up for extension in two years, similar to Bergeron, which will give them cap flexibility. Signing up for a low AAV with easily attainable bonuses that allow the team to keep pulling from future cap (or accrued cap if they have any at end of season).

The Matthews contract initially looked bad to me for low term with high AAV, but it's actually not awful when you combine his two post ELC contracts.
5x11,640,250 =$58,195,000 and now 4x$13,125,000= $53,000,000

It's the same as 9x$12,355,000 AAV during his prime years. McDavid is 8x$12,500,000 for reference.

The question will be if they can fit Nylander in the short-term.


 
JJ18Sniper said:
I'm expecting Tavares to go the 35+ contract route when he's up for extension in two years, similar to Bergeron, which will give them cap flexibility. Signing up for a low AAV with easily attainable bonuses that allow the team to keep pulling from future cap (or accrued cap if they have any at end of season).

The Matthews contract initially looked bad to me for low term with high AAV, but it's actually not awful when you combine his two post ELC contracts.
5x11,640,250 =$58,195,000 and now 4x$13,125,000= $53,000,000

It's the same as 9x$12,355,000 AAV during his prime years. McDavid is 8x$12,500,000 for reference.

The question will be if they can fit Nylander in the short-term.


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It will be a question of whether or not they keep Marner too. Tavares is not taking a discount - I don’t see that. He won’t make 11m, but I see him actually securing a longer contract with less AAV.

IMO, they should keep Nylander this year and go for it, let him walk in FA and address the D and other positions with the cap space. TOR has no issue signing players
 
Actually pretty sad this got done (so early). Would've been a lot of fun to watch Leafs fans sweat over the coming months...

Oh well...Guess we can take solace in the fact that they are relieved today, but still have no shot tomorrow.


 
SI said:
It will be a question of whether or not they keep Marner too. Tavares is not taking a discount - I don’t see that. He won’t make 11m, but I see him actually securing a longer contract with less AAV.

IMO, they should keep Nylander this year and go for it, let him walk in FA and address the D and other positions with the cap space. TOR has no issue signing players
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Seems like a last resort, no? At least allow him to talk to suitors and try a sign and trade. Can't believe there is any scenario where losing him for nothing is the plan.
 
LeapOnOver said:
Seems like a last resort, no? At least allow him to talk to suitors and try a sign and trade. Can't believe there is any scenario where losing him for nothing is the plan.
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If Nylander is planning to hit the market, then a sign and trade doesn’t get the Leafs anything but a mid round pick.

The Leafs have not won a cup since 1967, I do not think a player on expiring contract is going to land them the player they need to make them better. And futures only helps them if they flip them for players now.

My guess Nylander wants 70m total $.
I believe that Tavares could get anywhere between 6.5 and 7.5 for his next contract. Marner anywhere between 10-11.

Using 9 m that Nylander wants to goaltending and D is a wiser choice.
 
gordie43 said:
Depends on your league set up. For the first half he was a decent mid round pick up, but once the power play fell apart he lost his relevance.
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At least from a point production standpoint, that's not true. The only stretch of last season where the Islanders had a not horrible PP, was from 11/01/22 through 12/9/22, where they scored on the PP at a rate of 10.87 g/60 min of PP time, which was good for 8th best in the league over that time frame. Or if you prefer percentages, they were 30.4% and 5th best in the league. Dobson put up 12 pts in those 19 games, which is a pace for 51.79 pts over 82 games.

After 12/9, they hit a steep dropoff, going scoreless on the PP for the next 8 games straight (25 PP opportunities over those 8 games). From 12/10/22 through the end of the season, the Isles' PP scored at a rate of 3.82 g/60 or 10.9%, which was dead last in the league over that time period for both stats. Yet, during this time, Dobson put up 31 pts in those 50 games, which comes to essentially the same pace of 50.84 pts over 82 games. A drop of less than 1 point over 82 games is negligible, and certainly nowhere near what one would expect it to be in order to say he'd lost his relevance.
 
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Richie Daggers Crime said:
That's close to 30% of your cap space on 2 players. Add Marner and you're around, what... 43%? on 3 players.
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Seeing as how both Tavares and Marner have another year on their contract, I really don't see any way of them keeping Nylander without his next contract there being one that "averages" around 9 MM (he says he wants 10), but only holds a cap hit of, say, 7 million next season.

I'd be a bit bewildered if Nylander is still a Leaf in the 24-25 season.
 
mm11 said:
love all this Leaf talk. LGI
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Here's better Leaf talk . . . although it's also a metaphor for 'that' Leaf talk . . .

1692969774055.png
 
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Seph said:
At least from a point production standpoint, that's not true. The only stretch of last season where the Islanders had a not horrible PP, was from 11/01/22 through 12/9/22, where they scored on the PP at a rate of 10.87 g/60 min of PP time, which was good for 8th best in the league over that time frame. Or if you prefer percentages, they were 30.4% and 5th best in the league. Dobson put up 12 pts in those 19 games, which is a pace for 51.79 pts over 82 games.

After 12/9, they hit a steep dropoff, going scoreless on the PP for the next 8 games straight (25 PP opportunities over those 8 games). From 12/10/22 through the end of the season, the Isles' PP scored at a rate of 3.82 g/60 or 10.9%, which was dead last in the league over that time period for both stats. Yet, during this time, Dobson put up 31 pts in those 50 games, which comes to essentially the same pace of 50.84 pts over 82 games. A drop of less than 1 point over 82 games is negligible, and certainly nowhere near what one would expect it to be in order to say he'd lost his relevance.
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Power play points is a category in my league. He had only 5pp points in his last 25 games. His overall numbers stats wise were pretty good and I am looking to snag him since he will be getting lots of ice time, but I had hoped his special teams play would have been more consistent last season
 
gordie43 said:
Power play points is a category in my league. He had only 5pp points in his last 25 games. His overall numbers stats wise were pretty good and I am looking to snag him since he will be getting lots of ice time, but I had hoped his special teams play would have been more consistent last season
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The last 25 games is well after the PP had fallen apart. And does your league not track total points? Because unless they don't, he still sound relevant to me.

Also worth noting that 5pts in 25gp is less than two points shy of being the same pace he put up in the rest of the season. I know fantasy you want every point you can get, but a loss of two PP pts doesn't seem like a major loss.
 
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Seph said:
The last 25 games is well after the PP had fallen apart. And does your league not track total points? Because unless they don't, he still sound relevant to me.

Also worth noting that 5pts in 25gp is less than two points shy of being the same pace he put up in the rest of the season. I know fantasy you want every point you can get, but a loss of two PP pts doesn't seem like a major loss.
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I’m not saying he’s not worth a pick, I just wished his power play numbers were more consistent this season, a few more power play points towards the end of the season would have stolen me a couple of more category wins. I rely on my forward to get me scoring points, defenseman I grab for blocks/hits/PP since most top d play top minutes on PP
 
gordie43 said:
I’m not saying he’s not worth a pick, I just wished his power play numbers were more consistent this season, a few more power play points towards the end of the season would have stolen me a couple of more category wins. I rely on my forward to get me scoring points, defenseman I grab for blocks/hits/PP since most top d play top minutes on PP
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Draft him then trade him after 55 games!
 
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SI said:
If Nylander is planning to hit the market, then a sign and trade doesn’t get the Leafs anything but a mid round pick.

The Leafs have not won a cup since 1967, I do not think a player on expiring contract is going to land them the player they need to make them better. And futures only helps them if they flip them for players now.

My guess Nylander wants 70m total $.
I believe that Tavares could get anywhere between 6.5 and 7.5 for his next contract. Marner anywhere between 10-11.

Using 9 m that Nylander wants to goaltending and D is a wiser choice.
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Seems like players don't really 'look' to hit the open market anymore. They seem to be trending more in line with basketball where they have an idea where they want to play. I totally agree that trading out some of that offense for defense or goaltending would be wise, but that's what I would use Tavares' money on, not Nylander's. Anyway, they should be able to ship him somewhere he wants to go that has the cap room and get something back, even if it's not equal value, if that's the player they don't want as part of the future.

The only players to really hit the market recently are guys that were on playoff teams where it didn't make sense trading them, and they had pretty legit rosters. (Panarin, Bobrovsky, Gaudreau).
 
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