Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Osakahaus]

Been outta the loop for a little, brought a new little lady Isles fan into the fray a few weeks ago!

What's the deal with Mathew Dumba?

And Kane is still unsigned?

No Dumba

 

[impaaaaaact]

r

Just looking at the potential starting line up. Look similar? Expectations?

Barzal Horvat Lee
Palmieri Nelson Engvall
Clutterbuck JGP Wahlstrom?
Gauthier/Fasching Cizikas Martin/Johnston

Pulock Pelech
Mayfield Romanov
Dobson Aho

Sorokin
Varly

Lambert

Lee Nelson Barzal
Engvall Horvat Palmieri
Gauthier JGP Wahlstrom
Martin Cizikas Clutterbuck
Johnston Fasching

Pelech Pulock
Romanov Dobson
Mayfield Aho
Bolduc

Sorokin
Varly

Is my guess

 

[SRBisles]

I think it makes the most sense to play both Lee and Wahlstrom in the top 6 and run a shutdown 3rd line of Engvall-Pageau-Holmstrom.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Lee Nelson Barzal
Engvall Horvat Palmieri
Gauthier JGP Wahlstrom
Martin Cizikas Clutterbuck
Johnston Fasching

Pelech Pulock
Romanov Dobson
Mayfield Aho
Bolduc

Sorokin
Varly

Is my guess

Looks similar to last year. Is anyone excited with this?

 

[SRBisles]

Looks similar to last year. Is anyone excited with this?

I think if everyone stays mostly healthy it’s a 100pt team. They’ll need deadline help to move into the true contender tier though.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Looks similar to last year. Is anyone excited with this?

We came into the season last year with Bailey, Beauvillier, and Nikita Soshkinov in the lineup instead of Horvat, Engvall and whoever plays wing next to Pageau. It's a huge upgrade from where we started last season.

All of the fancy stat people have us as an 100+ point team - even Dom L likes the "addition by subtraction" in taking Bailey's minutes off the ice. Engvall is something of an advanced stats unicorn so I'm sure that helps as well.

But yeah, we have the best goalie tandem in the league and we're all hoping for some magic in Barzal's first full season as a winger

 

[impaaaaaact]

I think it makes the most sense to play both Lee and Wahlstrom in the top 6 and run a shutdown 3rd line of Engvall-Pageau-Holmstrom.

I don't necessarily disagree, I just think that there's a focus on speed and having it throughout the lineup. I think the threat of Engvall opened things up for Nelson at the end of last season and they're hoping the same will happen with Gauthier if he can earn the minutes.

 

[gordie43]

I think if everyone stays mostly healthy it’s a 100pt team. They’ll need deadline help to move into the true contender tier though.

If the power play has a pulse this team should be fine.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I think if everyone stays mostly healthy it’s a 100pt team. They’ll need deadline help to move into the true contender tier though.

We came into the season last year with Bailey, Beauvillier, and Nikita Soshkinov in the lineup instead of Horvat, Engvall and whoever plays wing next to Pageau. It's a huge upgrade from where we started last season.

All of the fancy stat people have us as an 100+ point team - even Dom L likes the "addition by subtraction" in taking Bailey's minutes off the ice. Engvall is something of an advanced stats unicorn so I'm sure that helps as well.

But yeah, we have the best goalie tandem in the league and we're all hoping for some magic in Barzal's first full season as a winger

I really don't know how this team will play. I see Horvat playing better with a training camp under his belt. The Isles will need him. I don't see a plethora of goals from this team. But if Barzal and Horvat can have career years, no reason to think they shouldn't if they play together. Then this is a plus. I think Engvall will surprise with a 20 goal season this year. The Isles look like they will again depend on Sorokin and their Defence to carry them. I don't know if Lambert is an upgrade to Trotz. So there are some reservations to me for this team. Wally and Dobson need to make the jump this year. Thought they would last year, so this is a vital year for them. Put Romanov in there as well. Isles paid a price for him. He needs to step up as well. Lots of balls in the air. Player movement may not be in the offing. The moves have been made. Internal improvement is a must if this team is to return to the conference finals.

 

[WangMustGo]

I mean take away the whole watching hockey thing and just on paper... Stamkos scores like a couple more goals than Crosby each year and Crosby scores like 25-30 more points. I don't have a decimal point for you but that sounds about correct right? That is not nearly the same relationship that Aho and Barzal have.

Again, Aho put up those numbers last year with Seth Jarvis and Teuvo Tervainen. Sure, Barzal will put up better numbers with Svech and Necas but Aho just did it without them. That's the difference.

And yes. Goals are more important. Last time I checked there's no such thing called a secondary goal. It is statistically easier to post an assist rather than a goal. They don't decide games by assists. Assists literally do not exist without goals. Yes, goals in hockey are more important than assists. I like Barzal too but man, come on.

Tervainen has scored 60+ points every season he has been healthy over the last 5 seasons. He is better than any winger the isles have. Aho still played minutes with Sech and Necas and played on the #1PP with them. He didnt put points up on the PP, but you are pretending that somehow makes him better.

So is Ovechkin a better player than Crosby? Last I checked Ovechkin is tracking to be the best goal scorer of all time, but its clear that Crosby is better. Same goes for Bossy and Trottier. Goals=/=better player.

Aho and Barzal are the same class of player that play different styles. If Aho played with the likes of Bailey, Holmstrom, Parise, and Lee he would have less goals and points. Add to the fact that he would be in a system that is extremely defensive and he would be putting up Barzals point totals, maybe even less.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Tervainen has scored 60+ points every season he has been healthy over the last 5 seasons. He is better than any winger the isles have. Aho still played minutes with Sech and Necas and played on the #1PP with them. He didnt put points up on the PP, but you are pretending that somehow makes him better.

So is Ovechkin a better player than Crosby? Last I checked Ovechkin is tracking to be the best goal scorer of all time, but its clear that Crosby is better. Same goes for Bossy and Trottier. Goals=/=better player.

Aho and Barzal are the same class of player that play different styles. If Aho played with the likes of Bailey, Holmstrom, Parise, and Lee he would have less goals and points. Add to the fact that he would be in a system that is extremely defensive and he would be putting up Barzals point totals, maybe even less.

Except... last season... the season we are citing numbers from. Yes, I realize he missed a couple of weeks but it's not as if he had some season ending injury. He was pacing for about 45 points in an 82 game season playing with Aho. Go to the Canes board and ask them how they feel about Teuvo. You're probably going to hear that he benefitted for playing on a line with their top two offensive players, and that he stopped producing once he was removed for Seth Jarvis.

The Ovechkin/Crosby thing is completely irrelevant to the two players we're actually comparing. Aho has proven to be a a more effective scorer in both goals and total points. It's apples and oranges.

And I didn't bring up the powerplay, I simply responded to you bringing it up as a reason his stats are lofty. That is false - literally documented and factually incorrect. You can keep bringing it up and it will continue to remain factually incorrect.

The extremely defensive system thing is why I'm going to stop responding after this. Did you watch the Isles last year? You think Lambert deployed an extremely defensive system to begin the season? Or did he maybe switch things up after Barzal got hurt?

The bottom line here is that there's really nothing in their statistical profiles that puts them in the same stratosphere in terms of actual on ice production. Sure, you can watch Barzal hold onto the puck for 40 seconds before giving it up and dream about a world where he has the perfect person to pass to and guess that he would put up more points. But guess is the operative word there. There's no proof. And to this point in his career he's spent extended time with maybe 15 different wingers and there has been no fit. Aho has been a producer in every situation thus far in his career. It's because he's not reliant on another player for his offensive production. That's the difference.

Lastly, I'll leave you with an easy graphic. This whole thing started with me saying Barzal is being paid based on potential rather than proven output. Here are all of the forwards being paid over 9M a season, ranked by their PPG. Barzal ranks near the bottom. For a player that doesn't really add anything defensively and isn't primarily a goal scorer, wouldn't you hope to see him a little higher up this list? The only players below him are a guy in his first year with a new team, a 35 year old, and what is starting to look like one of the worst contracts in the league.

 

[Tahoeblue]

Looks similar to last year. Is anyone excited with this?

This is a legit point. This team needs so many variables to break right for them. As many have said an upgrade on the wing and/or on the backend would be helpful. This team is too tight to the cap and really needs to find some major value on a winger. I think we have all racked our brains on the next Tage Thompson, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Tolvanen, or whoever could benefit from a change of scenery. I have always liked Frank "The Tank" Vatrano". Probably just not going to happen.

This value upgrade on the wing may have to come internally from a Wally or Holmstrom. I know Lee is a safe bet on the first line, but I think there is an opportunity on the top line to really have a legit and complete top line, but not confident OW and SH have what it takes next to Horvat and Barzal.

Will be interesting to see if Lou can shed some salary to be able to generate cap space for options and flexibility for the TDL. Sorry TWS, my post isn't generally in response to you, but your post resonated with me and some of my frustration with this team. You are a knowledgable and respectable poster on this site.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

This is a legit point. This team needs so many variables to break right for them. As many have said an upgrade on the wing and/or on the backend would be helpful. This team is too tight to the cap and really needs to find some major value on a winger. I think we have all racked our brains on the next Tage Thompson, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Tolvanen, or whoever could benefit from a change of scenery. I have always liked Frank "The Tank" Vatrano". Probably just not going to happen.

This value upgrade on the wing may have to come internally from a Wally or Holmstrom. I know Lee is a safe bet on the first line, but I think there is an opportunity on the top line to really have a legit and complete top line, but not confident OW and SH have what it takes next to Horvat and Barzal.

Will be interesting to see if Lou can shed some salary to be able to generate cap space for options and flexibility for the TDL. Sorry TWS, my post isn't generally in response to you, but your post resonated with me and some of my frustration with this team. You are a knowledgable and respectable poster on this site.

I think Isles need one of Dobson or Wally to take a major step towards stardom this season. When they were picked 11 and 12 there were 2 shots at the board the Isles were picking their next stud player. Going way back to Bossy and Trottier these are franchise makers. Potvin was a gimme. Scouting need to come through to be successful long term on less gimme picks.

 

[WangMustGo]

Except... last season... the season we are citing numbers from. Yes, I realize he missed a couple of weeks but it's not as if he had some season ending injury. He was pacing for about 45 points in an 82 game season playing with Aho. Go to the Canes board and ask them how they feel about Teuvo. You're probably going to hear that he benefitted for playing on a line with their top two offensive players, and that he stopped producing once he was removed for Seth Jarvis.

The Ovechkin/Crosby thing is completely irrelevant to the two players we're actually comparing. Aho has proven to be a a more effective scorer in both goals and total points. It's apples and oranges.

And I didn't bring up the powerplay, I simply responded to you bringing it up as a reason his stats are lofty. That is false - literally documented and factually incorrect. You can keep bringing it up and it will continue to remain factually incorrect.

The extremely defensive system thing is why I'm going to stop responding after this. Did you watch the Isles last year? You think Lambert deployed an extremely defensive system to begin the season? Or did he maybe switch things up after Barzal got hurt?

The bottom line here is that there's really nothing in their statistical profiles that puts them in the same stratosphere in terms of actual on ice production. Sure, you can watch Barzal hold onto the puck for 40 seconds before giving it up and dream about a world where he has the perfect person to pass to and guess that he would put up more points. But guess is the operative word there. There's no proof. And to this point in his career he's spent extended time with maybe 15 different wingers and there has been no fit. Aho has been a producer in every situation thus far in his career. It's because he's not reliant on another player for his offensive production. That's the difference.

Lastly, I'll leave you with an easy graphic. This whole thing started with me saying Barzal is being paid based on potential rather than proven output. Here are all of the forwards being paid over 9M a season, ranked by their PPG. Barzal ranks near the bottom. For a player that doesn't really add anything defensively and isn't primarily a goal scorer, wouldn't you hope to see him a little higher up this list? The only players below him are a guy in his first year with a new team, a 35 year old, and what is starting to look like one of the worst contracts in the league.


View attachment 732174

And Aho would slot 1 spot ahead of Barzal om that list. They are similar quality. Aho has a clear advantage of playing with better players in a more offensive system.

Obviously I would love to see Barzal at the top of the list, but thats just not realistic. He should be close to a PPG with a decent PP and decent teammates. Similar to what Aho is.

 

[PJGooch]

Looks similar to last year. Is anyone excited with this?

Yes

 

[WangMustGo]

Just looking at the potential starting line up. Look similar? Expectations?

Barzal Horvat Lee
Palmieri Nelson Engvall
Clutterbuck JGP Wahlstrom?
Gauthier/Fasching Cizikas Martin/Johnston

Pulock Pelech
Mayfield Romanov
Dobson Aho

Sorokin
Varly

Lambert

Im hoping Parise comes back for 1 more season. He would improve the 3rd lineband give us more depth.

Im hoping to see some adjustments on the PP. With an average PP this team should be around 100 points, barring a catastrophic injury.

 

[Seph]

Please know that I generally appreciate your posts here. However, in this case…

We can bring up the Lucic's and the Ladd's of the world (although they do not meet the criteria I stated), but that would involve disregarding the fact that they are a radically different style of player than Barzal or Aho. The biggest decline in their games was due to lack of foot speed. Barring a major injury, it doesn't seem likely that will come into play for either Barzal or Aho.

As stated previously, Aho played a majority of his season with Seth Jarvis and Teuvo Tervainen. Their point output combined barely eclipses Aho's.

And I don't actually need you to do the stat work - it's all readily available on either money puck or any other site that tracks this stuff. I asked you to post it because it is at odds with the stats you decided to focus on to prove your point. You seem to think there's a debate to be had here - if there is, then you're welcome to post the (important!) stats that contradict your stance here. It's simply an invitation not to be so disingenuous.

Barzal is obviously a very good player. He has yet to have a great season (unless you want to count the super happy fun time Weight year). Aho is a play driving 35 goal a year PPG center for the last 5 seasons. I’m really not sure what the discussion is here.

P.S. - Aho had 3 more empty net goals than Barzal last season. Is that supposed to be what's moving the needle in this conversation?

Not sure why it doesn't meet your criteria. The contract started only a year off from Aho's age when his new contract starts. No Oiler at the time had a higher caphit on their contract. And after 2 straight seasons of his points dropping considerably and ending up all the way down to just 20 pts, I'm sure Edmonton would have loved to have bought him out if it actually saved the 2/3 of his AAV against the cap that it would have if he was paid level salary each year of the deal. But due to the front-loading and bonuses it would only save them 2.8m, 1.1m, 2.4m, and 1.1m over those years. So instead, they traded him for Neal who was near identical in terms of caphit and poor performance (5.75m AAV and coming off a 19pt season), but who did have a contract structured to save that 2/3 in the event of a buyout. And they did eventually buy him out.

But all right, not a good enough example for whatever reason. Just this summer, we saw Duchene and OEL get bought out. Duchene had signed his contract with Nashville when he was 28 for 8m AAV, and was 32 with 4 years remaining when he got bought out. OEL had signed his deal at 27 for 8.25m and was a month from turning 32 and also had 4 years remaining on his deal at the time of buyout. Two this summer alone seems like it should be enough to indicate that it's something to at least consider. But if you truly believe signing a longterm contract for the highest AAV on your team at Aho's age means the team won't want out of the contract later, we should be in great shape with Barzal -- his contract starts a year younger than Aho's and it's the highest AAV on the team, so this logic seems in favor of Barzal's contract not becoming a problem.

Jarvis, as Aho's 2nd most common player to share the ice with had 79 points over those 2 years, which is still 10 more than Bailey (Barzal's 2nd highest) did. Lee as Barzal's most common did have 4 more points than Teravainen, Aho's most common, but that still leaves Aho's top 2 linemates with 6 more overall points. But Aho spent only about 11% less time on the ice with Svechnikov (1077:01 min) than he did with Jarvis (1210:34), so refusing to acknowledge Svech and acting like they didn't play a lot of minutes together seems a lot like you're just cherry picking to support your claim,l, especially considering Aho scored over half his points when Svechnikov was on the ice with him. But I'll give the benefit of the doubt here and assume you didn't realize how close Jarvis and Svechnikov were in TOI with Aho.

Below is what the top 4 forwards for Aho and Barzal looked like for ice time with them and their total points over the 2 years. The last column is the total points of each player but weighted based on the % of time they played with Aho/Barzal. The % is based on the total icetime Barzal/Aho were on the ice with the 4 players listed. The total gives us an average over the two years for these 4 players based on the weighted numbers. If you're wondering why I'm going with 4 players here, it's simply because after Necas there's a huge dropoff in icetime for the next forward for Aho (Noesen at 252:09), so it seemed like a logical place to cut things off and unlikely to affect the numbers in any meaningful way. But if you feel I'm leaving out meaningful data by doing so, I encourage you to provide what you find.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]TOI w/ Aho/Barzal[/TD]
[TD]%[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]Weighted Pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Teravainen[/TD]

[TD]

1528:57​

[/TD]

[TD]

32.93%​

[/TD]

[TD]

92​

[/TD]

[TD]

30.29​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jarvis[/TD]

[TD]

1210:34​

[/TD]

[TD]

26.07%​

[/TD]

[TD]

79​

[/TD]

[TD]

20.59​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Svechnikov[/TD]

[TD]

1077:01​

[/TD]

[TD]

23.19%​

[/TD]

[TD]

124​

[/TD]

[TD]

28.76​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Necas[/TD]

[TD]

827:10​

[/TD]

[TD]

17.81%​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]

19.77​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[TD]

99.42​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lee[/TD]

[TD]

1061:30​

[/TD]

[TD]

35.36%​

[/TD]

[TD]

96​

[/TD]

[TD]

33.95​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bailey[/TD]

[TD]

743:00​

[/TD]

[TD]

24.75%​

[/TD]

[TD]

69​

[/TD]

[TD]

17.08​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Parise[/TD]

[TD]

625:07​

[/TD]

[TD]

20.82%​

[/TD]

[TD]

69​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.37​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wahlstrom[/TD]

[TD]

572:12​

[/TD]

[TD]

19.06%​

[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

7.62​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[TD]

73.02​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

After weighting for TOI together, Aho's wings produced 36.15% more points over these two years than Barzal's. Or we could say Aho averaged playing with 49.7 pts per season players while Barzal averaged playing with 36.5 pt players. Either way, it seems like significantly better offensive players for Aho to me.

I included secondary assists because points have been the standard measure of offensive contributions since damn near always, and points are generally the only stat nearly everyone can agree on as a good way of measuring that. And as it turns out, points include secondary assists. The scoring title doesn't go to the player who puts up the most goals and primary assists, and I've never heard anyone suggest that it ought to. We pretty much all agree that Marner had a better offensive season than Keller last year, even if Keller had 5 points more than him when we exclude secondary assists. Do you feel Viktor Arvidsson and Nick Suzuki contributed just as much offensively as Gaudreau did last season since they all had 51 pts when using this method? Do you feel Hayes and Perron provided the same offensive contributions as Chandler Stephenson since they all would've been at 44 points?

Yes, of course taking away assists is going to affect the stats of the player with more assists more drastically if you aren't doing anything to try to similarly normalize goals as well. But what justification is there for doing so? I could understand the argument if one was trying to make the claim that Barzal was a leech, gaining phantom points he didn't deserve playing with more talented players -- the assists version of Blair McDonald scoring 40g in a season from Gretzky and Kurri bouncing pucks off him into the net and leading to the famous Sather line about a fire hydrant being able to score 40g playing with Gretzky. But unless you feel that's the case with Barzal, not counting secondary assists is roughly the equivalent of excluding any goals scored that were assisted by another player, since arguably the goal scorer didn't create the scoring chance and may have simply been the beneficiary of his teammates' work.

When you watch Barzal play, do you feel he didn't create the scoring chance every time another Islander touches the puck before the player who scores the goal does? I wouldn't try to ignore Aho's assisted goals, because watching him play it's obvious that for most of his goals, he is a big part of scoring it and not just cashing in freebies his team sets up for him. Though that does of course happen occasionally as well, me trying to do so would clearly be trying to take away points from Aho because it supports my claim. Similarly, watching Barzal play, to me it's pretty clear he's creating the scoring chances on most of the goals that turn into assists for him, even if occasionally that isn't the case. So before analyzing the numbers without secondary assists, I'd need some sort of explanation on why it's a better measure of offensive contributions than the generally accepted way and it isn't just trying to lower Barzal's stats to support a claim.

And I guess while we're at it, I'd also need an explanation of why you feel a secondary assist is a less accurate measure of offensive contribution than a point scored against an empty net is, because that is some weird logic I can't even begin to wrap my brain around.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Not sure why it doesn't meet your criteria. The contract started only a year off from Aho's age when his new contract starts. No Oiler at the time had a higher caphit on their contract. And after 2 straight seasons of his points dropping considerably and ending up all the way down to just 20 pts, I'm sure Edmonton would have loved to have bought him out if it actually saved the 2/3 of his AAV against the cap that it would have if he was paid level salary each year of the deal. But due to the front-loading and bonuses it would only save them 2.8m, 1.1m, 2.4m, and 1.1m over those years. So instead, they traded him for Neal who was near identical in terms of caphit and poor performance (5.75m AAV and coming off a 19pt season), but who did have a contract structured to save that 2/3 in the event of a buyout. And they did buy eventually buy him out.

But all right, not a good enough example for whatever reason. Just this summer, we saw Duchene and OEL get bought out. Duchene had signed his contract with Nashville when he was 28 for 8m AAV, and was 32 with 4 years remaining when he got bought out. OEL had signed his deal at 27 for 8.25m and was a month from turning 32 and also had 4 years remaining on his deal at the time of buyout. Two this summer alone seems like it should be enough to indicate that it's something to at least consider. But if you truly believe signing a longterm contract for the highest AAV on your team at Aho's age means the team won't want out of the contract later, we should be in great shape with Barzal -- his contract stats a year younger than Aho's and it's the highest AAV on the team, so this logic seems in favor of Barzal's contract not becoming a problem.

Jarvis, as Aho's 2nd most common player to share the ice with had 79 points over those 2 years, which is still 10 more than Bailey (Barzal's 2nd highest) did. Lee as Barzal's most common did have 4 more points than Teravainen, Aho's most common, but that still leaves Aho's top 2 linemates with 6 more overall points. But Aho spent only about 11% less time on the ice with Svechnikov (1077:01 min) than he did with Jarvis (1210:34), so refusing to acknowledge Svech and acting like they didn't play a lot of minutes together seems a lot like you're just cherry picking to support your claim, but I'll give the benefit of the doubt here and assume you didn't realize how close Jarvis and Svechnikov were in TOI with Aho.

Below is what the top 4 forwards for Aho and Barzal looked like for ice time with them and their total points over the 2 years. The last column is the total points of each player but weighted based on the % of time they played with Aho/Barzal. The % is based on the total icetime Barzal/Aho were on the ice with the 4 players listed. The total gives us an average over the two years for these 4 players based on the weighted numbers. If you're wondering why I'm going with 4 players here, it's simply because after Necas there's a huge dropoff in icetime for the next forward for Aho (Noesen at 252:09), so it seemed like a logical place to cut things off and unlikely to affect the numbers in any meaningful way. But if you feel I'm leaving out meaningful data by doing so, I encourage you to provide what you find.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]TOI w/ Aho/Barzal[/TD]
[TD]%[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]Weighted Pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Teravainen[/TD]

[TD]

1528:57​

[/TD]

[TD]

32.93%​

[/TD]

[TD]

92​

[/TD]

[TD]

30.29​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jarvis[/TD]

[TD]

1210:34​

[/TD]

[TD]

26.07%​

[/TD]

[TD]

79​

[/TD]

[TD]

20.59​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Svechnikov[/TD]

[TD]

1077:01​

[/TD]

[TD]

23.19%​

[/TD]

[TD]

124​

[/TD]

[TD]

28.76​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Necas[/TD]

[TD]

827:10​

[/TD]

[TD]

17.81%​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]

19.77​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[TD]

99.42​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lee[/TD]

[TD]

1061:30​

[/TD]

[TD]

35.36%​

[/TD]

[TD]

96​

[/TD]

[TD]

33.95​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bailey[/TD]

[TD]

743:00​

[/TD]

[TD]

24.75%​

[/TD]

[TD]

69​

[/TD]

[TD]

17.08​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Parise[/TD]

[TD]

625:07​

[/TD]

[TD]

20.82%​

[/TD]

[TD]

69​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.37​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wahlstrom[/TD]

[TD]

572:12​

[/TD]

[TD]

19.06%​

[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

7.62​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[TD]

73.02​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

After weighting for TOI together, Aho's wings produced 36.15% more points over these two years than Barzal's. Or we could say Aho averaged playing with 49.7 pts per season players while Barzal averaged playing with 36.5 pt players. Either way, it seems like significantly better offensive players for Aho to me.

I included secondary assists because points have been the standard measure of offensive contributions since damn near always, and points are generally the only stat nearly everyone can agree on as a good way of measuring that. And as it turns out, points include secondary assists. The scoring title doesn't go to the player who puts up the most goals and primary assists, and I've never heard anyone suggest that it ought to. We pretty much all agree that Marner had a better offensive season than Keller last year, even if Keller had 5 points more than him when we exclude secondary assists. Do you feel Viktor Arvidsson and Nick Suzuki contributed just as much offensively as Gaudreau did last season since they all had 51 pts when using this method? Do you feel Hayes and Perron provided the same offensive contributions as Chandler Stephenson since they all would've been at 44 points?

Yes, of course taking away assists is going to affect the stats of the player with more assists more drastically if you aren't doing anything to try to similarly normalize goals as well. But what justification is there for doing so? I could understand the argument if one was trying to make the claim that Barzal was a leech, gaining phantom points he didn't deserve playing with more talented players -- the assists version of Blair McDonald scoring 40g in a season from Gretzky and Kurri bouncing pucks off him into the net and leading to the famous Sather line about a fire hydrant being able to score 40g playing with Gretzky. But unless you feel that's the case with Barzal, not counting secondary assists is roughly the equivalent of excluding any goals scored that were assisted by another player, since arguably the goal scorer didn't create the scoring chance and may have simply been the beneficiary of his teammates' work.

When you watch Barzal play, do you feel he didn't create the scoring chance every time another Islander touches the puck before the player who scores the goal does? I wouldn't try to ignore Aho's assisted goals, because watching him play it's obvious that for most of his goals, he is a big part of scoring it and not just cashing in freebies his team sets up for him. Though that does of course happen occasionally as well, me trying to do so would clearly be trying to take away points from Aho because it supports my claim. Similarly, watching Barzal play, to me it's pretty clear he's creating the scoring chances on most of the goals that turn into assists for him, even if occasionally that isn't the case. So before analyzing the numbers without secondary assists, I'd need some sort of explanation on why it's a better measure of offensive contributions than the generally accepted way and it isn't just trying to lower Barzal's stats to support a claim.

And I guess while we're at it, I'd also need an explanation of why you feel a secondary assist is a less accurate measure of offensive contribution than a point scored against an empty net is, because that is some weird logic I can'teven begin to wrap my brain around.

This should be an example of being thorough vs. going half the distance, lol. This is an A+ report while impaaaaaact's is a C+.

 

[JerseyJoe]

Im hoping Parise comes back for 1 more season. He would improve the 3rd lineband give us more depth.

Im hoping to see some adjustments on the PP. With an average PP this team should be around 100 points, barring a catastrophic injury.

replace him with Tatar

 

[Sheva7]

r


Lee Nelson Barzal
Engvall Horvat Palmieri
Gauthier JGP Wahlstrom
Martin Cizikas Clutterbuck
Johnston Fasching

Pelech Pulock
Romanov Dobson
Mayfield Aho
Bolduc

Sorokin
Varly

Is my guess

Swap Clutterbuck with Fasching...but pretty solid overall imo.

Assuming they stay healthy, a legit coach gets this team into the playoffs.

 

[Osakahaus]

I think it makes the most sense to play both Lee and Wahlstrom in the top 6 and run a shutdown 3rd line of Engvall-Pageau-Holmstrom.

yeah that works but I like Palmieri-Nelson-Engvall too much

So you have to hope Wahlstrom becomes a good 3rd liner w/Pageau and Holmstrom

 

[SI]

Looks similar to last year. Is anyone excited with this?

Actually, I am excited.

Sorokin Vezina campaign
Full season of Horvat
Hoping Dobson and Wahlstrom their next levels in their game
Barzal and Horvat tandem
Excited to watch Bolduc develop
And super excited to see Isk and Dufour develop and may push for a spot mid season.

 

[SI]

I think it makes the most sense to play both Lee and Wahlstrom in the top 6 and run a shutdown 3rd line of Engvall-Pageau-Holmstrom.

That doesn’t speak shutdown necessarily to me. I think we will hear shortly if Parise is coming back. My guess would be this week.

If he does, Lane will most likely roll with -
Lee Horvat Barzal
Engvall Nelson Palmieri
Parise JGP Wahlstrom
Identity line
Fasching and Gauthier as the extra F’s

Personally, I would move Nelson to Maty’s wing and have Horvat skate with Engvall and Palmieri.

If Parise doesn’t return, then I can see Gauthier seeing a look on JGP’s RW.
Something like this -
Barzal Horvat Wahlstrom
Engvall Nelson Palmieri
Lee Pageau Gauthier
Identity line
Fasching - Holmstrom


Late in games I can see Wahlstrom sit for Horvat giving that line a formidable left/right faceoff.

I think there is also a lot to get excited about with Dufour and Isk at Bport - can’t forget that Durandeau also made huge strides last year. I’m positive one of these 3 will be in the conversation by January.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Lee - Horvat - Barzal
Engvall - Nelson - Palmieri
Parise* - Pageau - Wahlstrom

*I have a gut feeling he's coming back

That's not a bad top-9 IMO.

Now the 4th line is interesting. I think Fasching and Gauthier are the better wing options. But Martin and Clutterbuck are staples there so I have my doubts they'll be taken out if healthy.

Depth: two of (Martin, Clutterbuck, Gauthier, Fasching), Johnston(?), Holmstrom, Durandeau, Dufour, and Iskhakov.

Not bad for depth pieces. Kind of weak on centers, but I suppose you can just shift Barzal back if need be.

Pelech - Pulock
Romanov - Dobson
Aho/Bolduc - Mayfield

No superstars, but a solid 6. You know what you're gonna get with the top pairing. The second pair has the potential for a major step forward this season. The third pair is a bit mid, but not weak IMO. Only potential issue here are injuries as the defense depth chart isn't looking particularly strong. Two injuries to the top-4 guys could tank the season, which is concerning with Pelech up there and Romanov having a tendency to play a rough game.

Sorokin
Varlamov

Not really much to say about this. Best starter and tandem in the league. The strong spot of the NYI obviously.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Not sure why it doesn't meet your criteria. The contract started only a year off from Aho's age when his new contract starts. No Oiler at the time had a higher caphit on their contract. And after 2 straight seasons of his points dropping considerably and ending up all the way down to just 20 pts, I'm sure Edmonton would have loved to have bought him out if it actually saved the 2/3 of his AAV against the cap that it would have if he was paid level salary each year of the deal. But due to the front-loading and bonuses it would only save them 2.8m, 1.1m, 2.4m, and 1.1m over those years. So instead, they traded him for Neal who was near identical in terms of caphit and poor performance (5.75m AAV and coming off a 19pt season), but who did have a contract structured to save that 2/3 in the event of a buyout. And they did buy eventually buy him out.

But all right, not a good enough example for whatever reason. Just this summer, we saw Duchene and OEL get bought out. Duchene had signed his contract with Nashville when he was 28 for 8m AAV, and was 32 with 4 years remaining when he got bought out. OEL had signed his deal at 27 for 8.25m and was a month from turning 32 and also had 4 years remaining on his deal at the time of buyout. Two this summer alone seems like it should be enough to indicate that it's something to at least consider. But if you truly believe signing a longterm contract for the highest AAV on your team at Aho's age means the team won't want out of the contract later, we should be in great shape with Barzal -- his contract stats a year younger than Aho's and it's the highest AAV on the team, so this logic seems in favor of Barzal's contract not becoming a problem.

Jarvis, as Aho's 2nd most common player to share the ice with had 79 points over those 2 years, which is still 10 more than Bailey (Barzal's 2nd highest) did. Lee as Barzal's most common did have 4 more points than Teravainen, Aho's most common, but that still leaves Aho's top 2 linemates with 6 more overall points. But Aho spent only about 11% less time on the ice with Svechnikov (1077:01 min) than he did with Jarvis (1210:34), so refusing to acknowledge Svech and acting like they didn't play a lot of minutes together seems a lot like you're just cherry picking to support your claim, but I'll give the benefit of the doubt here and assume you didn't realize how close Jarvis and Svechnikov were in TOI with Aho.

Below is what the top 4 forwards for Aho and Barzal looked like for ice time with them and their total points over the 2 years. The last column is the total points of each player but weighted based on the % of time they played with Aho/Barzal. The % is based on the total icetime Barzal/Aho were on the ice with the 4 players listed. The total gives us an average over the two years for these 4 players based on the weighted numbers. If you're wondering why I'm going with 4 players here, it's simply because after Necas there's a huge dropoff in icetime for the next forward for Aho (Noesen at 252:09), so it seemed like a logical place to cut things off and unlikely to affect the numbers in any meaningful way. But if you feel I'm leaving out meaningful data by doing so, I encourage you to provide what you find.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]TOI w/ Aho/Barzal[/TD]
[TD]%[/TD]
[TD]Pts[/TD]
[TD]Weighted Pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Teravainen[/TD]

[TD]

1528:57​

[/TD]

[TD]

32.93%​

[/TD]

[TD]

92​

[/TD]

[TD]

30.29​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jarvis[/TD]

[TD]

1210:34​

[/TD]

[TD]

26.07%​

[/TD]

[TD]

79​

[/TD]

[TD]

20.59​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Svechnikov[/TD]

[TD]

1077:01​

[/TD]

[TD]

23.19%​

[/TD]

[TD]

124​

[/TD]

[TD]

28.76​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Necas[/TD]

[TD]

827:10​

[/TD]

[TD]

17.81%​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]

19.77​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[TD]

99.42​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lee[/TD]

[TD]

1061:30​

[/TD]

[TD]

35.36%​

[/TD]

[TD]

96​

[/TD]

[TD]

33.95​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bailey[/TD]

[TD]

743:00​

[/TD]

[TD]

24.75%​

[/TD]

[TD]

69​

[/TD]

[TD]

17.08​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Parise[/TD]

[TD]

625:07​

[/TD]

[TD]

20.82%​

[/TD]

[TD]

69​

[/TD]

[TD]

14.37​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wahlstrom[/TD]

[TD]

572:12​

[/TD]

[TD]

19.06%​

[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

7.62​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[TD]

73.02​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

After weighting for TOI together, Aho's wings produced 36.15% more points over these two years than Barzal's. Or we could say Aho averaged playing with 49.7 pts per season players while Barzal averaged playing with 36.5 pt players. Either way, it seems like significantly better offensive players for Aho to me.

I included secondary assists because points have been the standard measure of offensive contributions since damn near always, and points are generally the only stat nearly everyone can agree on as a good way of measuring that. And as it turns out, points include secondary assists. The scoring title doesn't go to the player who puts up the most goals and primary assists, and I've never heard anyone suggest that it ought to. We pretty much all agree that Marner had a better offensive season than Keller last year, even if Keller had 5 points more than him when we exclude secondary assists. Do you feel Viktor Arvidsson and Nick Suzuki contributed just as much offensively as Gaudreau did last season since they all had 51 pts when using this method? Do you feel Hayes and Perron provided the same offensive contributions as Chandler Stephenson since they all would've been at 44 points?

Yes, of course taking away assists is going to affect the stats of the player with more assists more drastically if you aren't doing anything to try to similarly normalize goals as well. But what justification is there for doing so? I could understand the argument if one was trying to make the claim that Barzal was a leech, gaining phantom points he didn't deserve playing with more talented players -- the assists version of Blair McDonald scoring 40g in a season from Gretzky and Kurri bouncing pucks off him into the net and leading to the famous Sather line about a fire hydrant being able to score 40g playing with Gretzky. But unless you feel that's the case with Barzal, not counting secondary assists is roughly the equivalent of excluding any goals scored that were assisted by another player, since arguably the goal scorer didn't create the scoring chance and may have simply been the beneficiary of his teammates' work.

When you watch Barzal play, do you feel he didn't create the scoring chance every time another Islander touches the puck before the player who scores the goal does? I wouldn't try to ignore Aho's assisted goals, because watching him play it's obvious that for most of his goals, he is a big part of scoring it and not just cashing in freebies his team sets up for him. Though that does of course happen occasionally as well, me trying to do so would clearly be trying to take away points from Aho because it supports my claim. Similarly, watching Barzal play, to me it's pretty clear he's creating the scoring chances on most of the goals that turn into assists for him, even if occasionally that isn't the case. So before analyzing the numbers without secondary assists, I'd need some sort of explanation on why it's a better measure of offensive contributions than the generally accepted way and it isn't just trying to lower Barzal's stats to support a claim.

And I guess while we're at it, I'd also need an explanation of why you feel a secondary assist is a less accurate measure of offensive contribution than a point scored against an empty net is, because that is some weird logic I can'teven begin to wrap my brain around.

I’m not reading all that…. I’m happy for you though. Or sorry that happened