Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[periferal]

The idea of Pageau for Debrusk is interesting. Sure.

My fantasy trade - and it's admittedly one with plenty of risk, but I could see the new GM in Calgary going for it - would be as follows:
To CAL: Pageau, Clutterbuck, Wahlstrom, and Bolduc
To NYI: Hanifin, Backlund, and Ruzicka

The math should work when one considers that a few bodies will have to be put on waivers anyhooo before opening night. Both Backlund and Hanifin are upcoing UFAs while Ruzicka is an upcoming RFA.

Mind you, I was just operated on and am full of painkillers just now.

But I wanted to get that thought off my chest.

Funny...I was reading your proposal and thought - This is a very un-Chapin trade proposal, so I think it could be the painkillers.

That said truly hope you're doing ok.

 

[SI90]

Taresenko to Sens 1yr $5mil AAV

Seems odd that another team didn't match or beat that. That's a know risk really high reward signing.

 

[doublechili]

this one kinda puts the Barzal contract in some unfortunate light. Aho has paced for over 30 goals every year of his career except his rookie season. He's a top 10-ish center in the league. I'm not sure that Barzal is even a center anymore but we're paying him around 500k less

Can’t say this part out loud around here.

But he did, with no problems. It's more the "beating the same drum incessantly" stuff that draws the negative reactions.

Taresenko to Sens 1yr $5mil AAV

Seems odd that another team didn't match or beat that. That's a know risk really high reward signing.

There are only 10 teams with $5M or more of cap space, and some of them are close and have roster spots to fill yet, and others aren't really trying to contend. So maybe not that many options really.

 

[leeroggy]

The idea of Pageau for Debrusk is interesting. Sure.

My fantasy trade - and it's admittedly one with plenty of risk, but I could see the new GM in Calgary going for it - would be as follows:
To CAL: Pageau, Clutterbuck, Wahlstrom, and Bolduc
To NYI: Hanifin, Backlund, and Ruzicka

The math should work when one considers that a few bodies will have to be put on waivers anyhooo before opening night. Both Backlund and Hanifin are upcoing UFAs while Ruzicka is an upcoming RFA.

Mind you, I was just operated on and am full of painkillers just now.

But I wanted to get that thought off my chest.

Good luck with the recovery

 

[SRBisles]

The idea of Pageau for Debrusk is interesting. Sure.

My fantasy trade - and it's admittedly one with plenty of risk, but I could see the new GM in Calgary going for it - would be as follows:
To CAL: Pageau, Clutterbuck, Wahlstrom, and Bolduc
To NYI: Hanifin, Backlund, and Ruzicka

The math should work when one considers that a few bodies will have to be put on waivers anyhooo before opening night. Both Backlund and Hanifin are upcoing UFAs while Ruzicka is an upcoming RFA.

Mind you, I was just operated on and am full of painkillers just now.

But I wanted to get that thought off my chest.

Perhaps it is the painkillers because I don’t think the value on the Isles side even gets you Hanifin, let alone Backlund as well.

Get well soon.

 

[MJF]

But he did, with no problems. It's more the "beating the same drum incessantly" stuff that draws the negative reactions.

Should I construe this as you admitting that you think Barzal is overpaid?

I say Mat Barzal is overpaid (and offer up a comparable for what he should be paid) and I’m met by a bunch of people who tell me he is paid in line with his assists, his possible production if he ever had a winger, his scoring pace per 60min over a 12 game window, blah, blah, blah.

Nobody here has ever said, “we get it, we know Barzal is overpaid, stop hammering away on that”

Don’t shoot the messenger.

 

[doublechili]

Should I construe this as you admitting that you think Barzal is overpaid?

I say Mat Barzal is overpaid (and offer up a comparable for what he should be paid) and I’m met by a bunch of people who tell me he is paid in line with his assists, his possible production if he ever had a winger, his scoring pace per 60min over a 12 game window, blah, blah, blah.

Nobody here has ever said, “we get it, we know Barzal is overpaid, stop hammering away on that”

Don’t shoot the messenger.

I must have missed that discussion. I'd say right now Barzal is overpaid, and he's certainly not in Aho's sphere. I thought that when Barzal signed the contract it was not based on past performance but rolling the dice on future performance. The first season of the contract was not a good deal for the Isles. Hopefully he grows into his salary. So yeah, this isn't a Pulock situation where we agree to disagree.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I'm pretty sure I've seen quite a few posts saying that he's overpaid. Without any fuss, either.

 

[leeroggy]

Should I construe this as you admitting that you think Barzal is overpaid?

I say Mat Barzal is overpaid (and offer up a comparable for what he should be paid) and I’m met by a bunch of people who tell me he is paid in line with his assists, his possible production if he ever had a winger, his scoring pace per 60min over a 12 game window, blah, blah, blah.

Nobody here has ever said, “we get it, we know Barzal is overpaid, stop hammering away on that”

Don’t shoot the messenger.

He’s also paid based on the teenybopper social media presence

 

[Osakahaus]

Leeroggy and MJF are probably sobbing because we didn't sign Tarasenko (who has a busted shoulder)

The idea of Pageau for Debrusk is interesting. Sure.

My fantasy trade - and it's admittedly one with plenty of risk, but I could see the new GM in Calgary going for it - would be as follows:
To CAL: Pageau, Clutterbuck, Wahlstrom, and Bolduc
To NYI: Hanifin, Backlund, and Ruzicka

I like this one. Ruzicka could be a good guy as well, and Backlund fills the same hole as Pageau.

 

[leeroggy]

Leeroggy and MJF are probably sobbing because we didn't sign Tarasenko (who has a busted shoulder)


I like this one. Ruzicka could be a good guy as well, and Backlund fills the same hole as Pageau.

Show me where I pushed for him strongly
I like him but I had him way down the list

Nylander and DeBrusk are my targets

Now try to debate at a level worthy of this site without the ad hominem garbage

 

[MJF]

Leeroggy and MJF are probably sobbing because we didn't sign Tarasenko (who has a busted shoulder)

Huh???

 

[Throttle]

Barzal is a guy who gets more assists than goals and that's the kind of player he is. He is a pure playmaker and thats what they need him to be.

Aho is a more complete guy on the contrary but has to power the Canes to go anywhere. Thats why I like barzal and horvat on the same line btw.

I’m gonna go with the Barzal/horvat thing doesn’t last 10 games. Fans will complain it needs more time and now Horvat’s the problem.

Lou will be blamed for trading for Horvat and should have saved his cap space to swoop in and sign Tarasenko in the last week of July because he had nowhere else to go.

 

[Seph]

this one kinda puts the Barzal contract in some unfortunate light. Aho has paced for over 30 goals every year of his career except his rookie season. He's a top 10-ish center in the league. I'm not sure that Barzal is even a center anymore but we're paying him around 500k less

I don't think it's really all that damning, tbh.

Looking at total point production over the last 2 seasons, Aho's put up points at a rate of 0.96 pts/gp, whereas Barzal is at 0.84, which means Barzal puts offense up at 87.4% the rate of Aho. If we're using Aho's 9.75m as a benchmark, that would mean Barzal should be paid 8.52m, a difference of 631k from Barzal's 9.15m, so he is overpaid by 6.9% (nice). That doesn't even sound all that bad in the first place.

Then, looking at the actual contracts, Barzal has no protection the first year of his deal and then only has a modified NTC for the remaining 7 years. Barzal also has his contract structured so that he gets straight salary at the same rate each year, so if he were bought out in any year, his caphit over the remaining years would be 3.05m. Aho has a full NMC for the first 7 years of the contract and a modified NTC in the last year. Also, Aho's contract is structured with front loaded pay and with a 2m signing bonus every year, so if a buyout were necessary in the tail end of his contract (the most likely time for it to become necessary) the cap hit would be notably higher.

For example, if Aho had to be bought out at age 32 with 3 years left, the caphits would be 5.04m, 6.44m and 6.44m for the remaining years. Or at 33 with 2 years left, it would be 6.28m for both years. Barzal's cap hit for the years after the scheduled end of the contract would be about 1-1.3m higher (depending on when Aho is bought out), but generally if you are doing a buy out it's because you need the money now, rather than later, making Barzal's the easier contract to buy out. Along with less trade protection allowing him to be traded much more easily, and Aho's NMC making a buyout more likely to be necessary in the event that one's play falters, there are more and better failsafes built into Barzal's contract, IMO. Based on that and the relative production mentioned above, I don't think Barzal's contract looks overpaid compared to Aho's.

But to go a bit further, still looking at the last two seasons, at 5v5 Barzal produced points at 0.50 pts/gp vs. 0.49 for Aho. So, Barzal comes out slightly ahead there, but realistically the same for all practical purposes. Barzal also eclipsed Aho ever so slightly on the PP, having produced 0.30 pts/gp there vs Aho's 0.28, though again, essentially identical for all practical purposes. This does make one ask though, how is Aho putting up points at a higher rate than Barzal? Turns out the biggest reason for the difference is points scored against an empty net, where Aho had 12 pts (including 7 of his goals) and Barzal had 0. If we subtract out EN points, Aho drops down to 0.88 pts/gp and Barzal stays at 0.84, or 95.1% of Aho's pts/gp (about 9.27m of Aho's 9.75m), and a difference of about 3.56 pts over 82 games.

Is Aho better defensively? Well, over the same seasons, Aho had a higher 5v5 on ice GA/60 at 2.49 vs 2.13 for Barzal. But OK, Barzal plays in front of the better goalie, so let's look beyond that. At 5v5 Aho did have a better xGA/60 at 2.55 vs Barzal's 2.75, and also shots were allowed on net at a lower rate while Aho was on the ice at 29.16 SA/60 compared to 31.2 SA/60 for Barzal. Though reasonably close on both stats. this would seem to indicate that maybe Aho has the edge defensively, but since we factored in goalies for GA, we should also factor in the team they played for here, since that's certainly a factor on these stats. Of the 10 forwards to play at least 1000 min TOI at 5v5 for the Canes over these two years, Aho had the highest SA/60 and xGA/60 of any of them, so relative to his team, he was the worst. Aho also had the 2nd worst GA/60 of the 10 regular forwards, with only Necas having a higher rate there. Barzal on the other hand, using the same criteria, ranked 4th best in SA/60 and 6th best in both xGA/60 and GA/60 of the 12 regular forwards for the Islanders, which isn't exactly a defensive stalwart, but certainly ranks better than Aho. At least in terms of actual on ice effect, Aho doesn't seem to have an edge here.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Aho here, I think he's a tremendous player, and would love to have him on the team. And I'm not trying to say I don't have concerns about Barzal's contract and whether he will live up to it, as I absolutely do have concerns there -- any 8 year contract for that much money involves a ton of risk. I also can appreciate that many people value goals more than they value total points, so I get that argument too. But I do think when we look at all the numbers for what the players have done of late -- and please keep in mind I'm not trying to make any predictions here on how well either will fulfill their contract -- the difference is not nearly as great as you suggest and that Barzal's contract seems fine in comparison.

Can’t say this part out loud around here.

Do you really think someone disagreeing with you is equivalent to being censored?

 

[MJF]

Do you really think someone disagreeing with you is equivalent to being censored?

Censoring? That’s a good one.

I’ll use the sarcasm emoji more often

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I don't think it's really all that damning, tbh.

Looking at total point production over the last 2 seasons, Aho's put up points at a rate of 0.96 pts/gp, whereas Barzal is at 0.84, which means Barzal puts offense up at 87.4% the rate of Aho. If we're using Aho's 9.75m as a benchmark, that would mean Barzal should be paid 8.52m, a difference of 631k from 9.15m, so he is overpaid by 6.9% (nice). Which doesn't even sound all that bad in the first place.

Then, looking at the actual contracts, Barzal has no protection the first year of his deal and then only has a modified NTC for the remaining 7 years. Barzal also has his contract structured so that he gets straight salary at the same rate each year, so if he were bought out in any year, his caphit over the remaining years would be 3.05m. Aho has a full NMC for the first 7 years of the contract and a modified NTC in the last year. Also, Aho's contract is structured with front loaded pay and with a 2m signing bonus every year, so if a buyout were necessary in the tail end of his contract (the most likely time for it to become necessary) the cap hit would be notably higher.

For example, if Aho had to be bought out at age 32 with 3 years left, the caphits would be 5.04m, 6.44m and 6.44m for the remaining years. Or at 33 with 2 years left, it would be 6.28m for both years. Barzal's cap hit for the years after the scheduled end of the contract would be about 1-1.3m higher (depending on when Aho is bought out), but generally if you are doing a buy out it's because you need the money now, rather than later, making Barzal's the easier contract to buy out. Along with less trade protection allowing him to be traded much more easily, and Aho's NMC making a buyout more likely to be necessary in the event that one's play falters, there are more and better failsafes built into Barzal's contract, IMO. Based on that and the relative production mentioned above, I don't think Barzal's contract looks overpaid compared to Aho's.

But to go a bit further, still looking at the last two seasons, at 5v5 Barzal produced points at 0.50 pts/gp vs. 0.49 for Aho. So, Barzal comes out slightly ahead there, but realistically the same for all practical purposes. Barzal also eclipsed Aho ever so slightly on the PP, having produced 0.30 pts/gp there vs Aho's 0.28, though again, essentially identical for all practical purposes. This does make one ask though, how is Aho putting up points at a higher rate than Barzal? Turns out the biggest reason for the difference is points scored against an empty net, where Aho had 12 pts (including 7 of his goals) and Barzal had 0. If we subtract out EN points, Aho drops down to 0.88 pts/gp and Barzal stays at 0.84, or 95.1% of Aho's ppg (about 9.27m of Aho's 9.75m), and a difference of about 3.56 pts over 82 games.

Is Aho better defensively? Well, over the same seasons, Aho had a higher 5v5 on ice GA/60 at 2.49 vs 2.13 for Barzal. But OK, Barzal plays in front of the better goalie, so let's look beyond that. At 5v5 Aho did have a better xGA/60 at 2.55 vs Barzal's 2.75, and also shots were allowed on net at a lower rate while Aho was on the ice at 29.16 SA/60 compared to 31.2 SA/60 for Barzal. Though reasonably close on both stats. this would seem to indicate that maybe Aho has the edge defensively, but since we factored in goalies for GA, we should also factor in the team they played for here, since that's certainly a factor on these stats. Of the 10 forwards to play at least 1000 min TOI at 5v5 for the Canes over these two years, Aho had the highest SA/60 and xGA/60 of any of them, so relative to his team, he was the worst. Aho also had the 2nd worst GA/60 of the 10 regular forwards, with only Necas having a higher rate there. Barzal on the other hand, using the same criteria, ranked 4th best in SA/60 and 6th best in both xGA/60 and GA/60 of the 12 regular forwards for the Islanders, which isn't exactly a defensive stalwart, but certainly ranks better than Aho. At least in terms of actual on ice effect, Aho doesn't seem to have an edge here.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Aho here, I think he's a tremendous player, and would love to have him on the team. And I'm not trying to say I don't have concerns about Barzal's contract and whether he will live up to it, as I absolutely do have concerns there -- any 8 year contract for that much money involves a ton of risk. I also can appreciate that many people value goals more than they value total points, so I get that argument too. But I do think when we look at all the numbers for what the players have done of late -- and please keep in mind I'm not trying to make any predictions here on how well either will fulfill their contract -- the difference is not nearly as great as you suggest and that Barzal's contract seems fine in comparison.

 

[Seph]

Censoring? That’s a good one.

I’ll use the sarcasm emoji more often

Oh, apparently I can't say that word out loud here.

 

[Isles72]

I must have missed that discussion. I'd say right now Barzal is overpaid, and he's certainly not in Aho's sphere. I thought that when Barzal signed the contract it was not based on past performance but rolling the dice on future performance. The first season of the contract was not a good deal for the Isles. Hopefully he grows into his salary. So yeah, this isn't a Pulock situation where we agree to disagree.

2023-24 is the first season of his new contract of 9.150 x 8

he did make 10 mil last season though on the final year of his bridge .

I think Aho could have asked for 10.5 , maybe more . Seems like he took a haircut because he likes the situation there .

 

[xECK29x]

Oh, apparently I can't say that word out loud here.

Us voluntary mods just want to crush dissent, you know how it goes Seph. We have narratives to push after all

 

[seafoam]

I don't think it's really all that damning, tbh.

Looking at total point production over the last 2 seasons, Aho's put up points at a rate of 0.96 pts/gp, whereas Barzal is at 0.84, which means Barzal puts offense up at 87.4% the rate of Aho. If we're using Aho's 9.75m as a benchmark, that would mean Barzal should be paid 8.52m, a difference of 631k from Barzal's 9.15m, so he is overpaid by 6.9% (nice). That doesn't even sound all that bad in the first place.

Then, looking at the actual contracts, Barzal has no protection the first year of his deal and then only has a modified NTC for the remaining 7 years. Barzal also has his contract structured so that he gets straight salary at the same rate each year, so if he were bought out in any year, his caphit over the remaining years would be 3.05m. Aho has a full NMC for the first 7 years of the contract and a modified NTC in the last year. Also, Aho's contract is structured with front loaded pay and with a 2m signing bonus every year, so if a buyout were necessary in the tail end of his contract (the most likely time for it to become necessary) the cap hit would be notably higher.

For example, if Aho had to be bought out at age 32 with 3 years left, the caphits would be 5.04m, 6.44m and 6.44m for the remaining years. Or at 33 with 2 years left, it would be 6.28m for both years. Barzal's cap hit for the years after the scheduled end of the contract would be about 1-1.3m higher (depending on when Aho is bought out), but generally if you are doing a buy out it's because you need the money now, rather than later, making Barzal's the easier contract to buy out. Along with less trade protection allowing him to be traded much more easily, and Aho's NMC making a buyout more likely to be necessary in the event that one's play falters, there are more and better failsafes built into Barzal's contract, IMO. Based on that and the relative production mentioned above, I don't think Barzal's contract looks overpaid compared to Aho's.

But to go a bit further, still looking at the last two seasons, at 5v5 Barzal produced points at 0.50 pts/gp vs. 0.49 for Aho. So, Barzal comes out slightly ahead there, but realistically the same for all practical purposes. Barzal also eclipsed Aho ever so slightly on the PP, having produced 0.30 pts/gp there vs Aho's 0.28, though again, essentially identical for all practical purposes. This does make one ask though, how is Aho putting up points at a higher rate than Barzal? Turns out the biggest reason for the difference is points scored against an empty net, where Aho had 12 pts (including 7 of his goals) and Barzal had 0. If we subtract out EN points, Aho drops down to 0.88 pts/gp and Barzal stays at 0.84, or 95.1% of Aho's pts/gp (about 9.27m of Aho's 9.75m), and a difference of about 3.56 pts over 82 games.

Is Aho better defensively? Well, over the same seasons, Aho had a higher 5v5 on ice GA/60 at 2.49 vs 2.13 for Barzal. But OK, Barzal plays in front of the better goalie, so let's look beyond that. At 5v5 Aho did have a better xGA/60 at 2.55 vs Barzal's 2.75, and also shots were allowed on net at a lower rate while Aho was on the ice at 29.16 SA/60 compared to 31.2 SA/60 for Barzal. Though reasonably close on both stats. this would seem to indicate that maybe Aho has the edge defensively, but since we factored in goalies for GA, we should also factor in the team they played for here, since that's certainly a factor on these stats. Of the 10 forwards to play at least 1000 min TOI at 5v5 for the Canes over these two years, Aho had the highest SA/60 and xGA/60 of any of them, so relative to his team, he was the worst. Aho also had the 2nd worst GA/60 of the 10 regular forwards, with only Necas having a higher rate there. Barzal on the other hand, using the same criteria, ranked 4th best in SA/60 and 6th best in both xGA/60 and GA/60 of the 12 regular forwards for the Islanders, which isn't exactly a defensive stalwart, but certainly ranks better than Aho. At least in terms of actual on ice effect, Aho doesn't seem to have an edge here.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Aho here, I think he's a tremendous player, and would love to have him on the team. And I'm not trying to say I don't have concerns about Barzal's contract and whether he will live up to it, as I absolutely do have concerns there -- any 8 year contract for that much money involves a ton of risk. I also can appreciate that many people value goals more than they value total points, so I get that argument too. But I do think when we look at all the numbers for what the players have done of late -- and please keep in mind I'm not trying to make any predictions here on how well either will fulfill their contract -- the difference is not nearly as great as you suggest and that Barzal's contract seems fine in comparison.


Do you really think someone disagreeing with you is equivalent to being censored?

Great post, but you left out goals.

Aho tucks on average 34 a year while Barzal is at 20 goals a year. That’s a significant difference for your best player.

I’m not an NHL coach (and I don’t want to/or think I should be one), but I have to imagine it’s a lot easier to gameplan how to contain Barzal vs. Aho.

 

[MarsTBOW]

Interesting Stats put together here.
What do you guys think?



Maybe the PP will improve a bit more than we think.

 

[Seph]

Great post, but you left out goals.

Aho tucks on average 34 a year while Barzal is at 20 goals a year. That’s a significant difference for your best player.

I’m not an NHL coach (and I don’t want to/or think I should be one), but I have to imagine it’s a lot easier to gameplan how to contain Barzal vs. Aho.

I didn't leave them out -- they had already been addressed and I do address them again at the end. Like I said, if you value goal scoring over total points, I get it. I personally never have, but I do understand the sentiment. I don't really agree though that Barzal is easier to plan for, as he is a better playmaker than Aho. Goals are included in points, so they are included when comparing point totals. I've never thought it made sense to compare a goal scorer to a playmaker based solely on goals -- points makes more sense to me since it factors in both goals and assists. But I certainly agree Aho is the better goal scorer.

But then if we are focusing on goal scoring, Aho's goal scoring rate per game has been pretty much identical to Horvat's over the last 2 years -- over 82 games Aho's g/gp pace would put him at 38.9 goals or 35.1 without the ENGs and Horvat's g/gp would put him at 38.0 goals, or 34.1 without the ENGs. Most seem to think Horvat is overpaid, but with Aho getting 14.7% more than him for that 1 goal (3.0%) increase, Horvat seems like a steal if you are prioritizing goal scoring over point production. Horvat's contract also has less trade protection and is structured like Barzal's for more beneficial buyout options.

 

[doublechili]

I don't think it's really all that damning, tbh.

Looking at total point production over the last 2 seasons, Aho's put up points at a rate of 0.96 pts/gp, whereas Barzal is at 0.84, which means Barzal puts offense up at 87.4% the rate of Aho. If we're using Aho's 9.75m as a benchmark, that would mean Barzal should be paid 8.52m, a difference of 631k from Barzal's 9.15m, so he is overpaid by 6.9% (nice). That doesn't even sound all that bad in the first place.

Then, looking at the actual contracts, Barzal has no protection the first year of his deal and then only has a modified NTC for the remaining 7 years. Barzal also has his contract structured so that he gets straight salary at the same rate each year, so if he were bought out in any year, his caphit over the remaining years would be 3.05m. Aho has a full NMC for the first 7 years of the contract and a modified NTC in the last year. Also, Aho's contract is structured with front loaded pay and with a 2m signing bonus every year, so if a buyout were necessary in the tail end of his contract (the most likely time for it to become necessary) the cap hit would be notably higher.

For example, if Aho had to be bought out at age 32 with 3 years left, the caphits would be 5.04m, 6.44m and 6.44m for the remaining years. Or at 33 with 2 years left, it would be 6.28m for both years. Barzal's cap hit for the years after the scheduled end of the contract would be about 1-1.3m higher (depending on when Aho is bought out), but generally if you are doing a buy out it's because you need the money now, rather than later, making Barzal's the easier contract to buy out. Along with less trade protection allowing him to be traded much more easily, and Aho's NMC making a buyout more likely to be necessary in the event that one's play falters, there are more and better failsafes built into Barzal's contract, IMO. Based on that and the relative production mentioned above, I don't think Barzal's contract looks overpaid compared to Aho's.

But to go a bit further, still looking at the last two seasons, at 5v5 Barzal produced points at 0.50 pts/gp vs. 0.49 for Aho. So, Barzal comes out slightly ahead there, but realistically the same for all practical purposes. Barzal also eclipsed Aho ever so slightly on the PP, having produced 0.30 pts/gp there vs Aho's 0.28, though again, essentially identical for all practical purposes. This does make one ask though, how is Aho putting up points at a higher rate than Barzal? Turns out the biggest reason for the difference is points scored against an empty net, where Aho had 12 pts (including 7 of his goals) and Barzal had 0. If we subtract out EN points, Aho drops down to 0.88 pts/gp and Barzal stays at 0.84, or 95.1% of Aho's pts/gp (about 9.27m of Aho's 9.75m), and a difference of about 3.56 pts over 82 games.

Is Aho better defensively? Well, over the same seasons, Aho had a higher 5v5 on ice GA/60 at 2.49 vs 2.13 for Barzal. But OK, Barzal plays in front of the better goalie, so let's look beyond that. At 5v5 Aho did have a better xGA/60 at 2.55 vs Barzal's 2.75, and also shots were allowed on net at a lower rate while Aho was on the ice at 29.16 SA/60 compared to 31.2 SA/60 for Barzal. Though reasonably close on both stats. this would seem to indicate that maybe Aho has the edge defensively, but since we factored in goalies for GA, we should also factor in the team they played for here, since that's certainly a factor on these stats. Of the 10 forwards to play at least 1000 min TOI at 5v5 for the Canes over these two years, Aho had the highest SA/60 and xGA/60 of any of them, so relative to his team, he was the worst. Aho also had the 2nd worst GA/60 of the 10 regular forwards, with only Necas having a higher rate there. Barzal on the other hand, using the same criteria, ranked 4th best in SA/60 and 6th best in both xGA/60 and GA/60 of the 12 regular forwards for the Islanders, which isn't exactly a defensive stalwart, but certainly ranks better than Aho. At least in terms of actual on ice effect, Aho doesn't seem to have an edge here.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Aho here, I think he's a tremendous player, and would love to have him on the team. And I'm not trying to say I don't have concerns about Barzal's contract and whether he will live up to it, as I absolutely do have concerns there -- any 8 year contract for that much money involves a ton of risk. I also can appreciate that many people value goals more than they value total points, so I get that argument too. But I do think when we look at all the numbers for what the players have done of late -- and please keep in mind I'm not trying to make any predictions here on how well either will fulfill their contract -- the difference is not nearly as great as you suggest and that Barzal's contract seems fine in comparison.


Do you really think someone disagreeing with you is equivalent to being censored?

This post contains the kind of nuance that I come here for.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Taresenko to Sens 1yr $5mil AAV

Seems odd that another team didn't match or beat that. That's a know risk really high reward signing.

Imagine getting your skull caved in for one year of Debrincat in a losing season and have your riposte be Tarasenko for 1 year at $5m.

 

[xECK29x]

This post contains the kind of nuance that I come here for.

Seph is a S-tier poster on this forum, he has been since I've been around. Wish he was on the Isles forum more though .