I don't think it's really all that damning, tbh.
Looking at total point production over the last 2 seasons, Aho's put up points at a rate of 0.96 pts/gp, whereas Barzal is at 0.84, which means Barzal puts offense up at 87.4% the rate of Aho. If we're using Aho's 9.75m as a benchmark, that would mean Barzal should be paid 8.52m, a difference of 631k from Barzal's 9.15m, so he is overpaid by 6.9% (nice). That doesn't even sound all that bad in the first place.
Then, looking at the actual contracts, Barzal has no protection the first year of his deal and then only has a modified NTC for the remaining 7 years. Barzal also has his contract structured so that he gets straight salary at the same rate each year, so if he were bought out in any year, his caphit over the remaining years would be 3.05m. Aho has a full NMC for the first 7 years of the contract and a modified NTC in the last year. Also, Aho's contract is structured with front loaded pay and with a 2m signing bonus every year, so if a buyout were necessary in the tail end of his contract (the most likely time for it to become necessary) the cap hit would be notably higher.
For example, if Aho had to be bought out at age 32 with 3 years left, the caphits would be 5.04m, 6.44m and 6.44m for the remaining years. Or at 33 with 2 years left, it would be 6.28m for both years. Barzal's cap hit for the years after the scheduled end of the contract would be about 1-1.3m higher (depending on when Aho is bought out), but generally if you are doing a buy out it's because you need the money now, rather than later, making Barzal's the easier contract to buy out. Along with less trade protection allowing him to be traded much more easily, and Aho's NMC making a buyout more likely to be necessary in the event that one's play falters, there are more and better failsafes built into Barzal's contract, IMO. Based on that and the relative production mentioned above, I don't think Barzal's contract looks overpaid compared to Aho's.
But to go a bit further, still looking at the last two seasons, at 5v5 Barzal produced points at 0.50 pts/gp vs. 0.49 for Aho. So, Barzal comes out slightly ahead there, but realistically the same for all practical purposes. Barzal also eclipsed Aho ever so slightly on the PP, having produced 0.30 pts/gp there vs Aho's 0.28, though again, essentially identical for all practical purposes. This does make one ask though, how is Aho putting up points at a higher rate than Barzal? Turns out the biggest reason for the difference is points scored against an empty net, where Aho had 12 pts (including 7 of his goals) and Barzal had 0. If we subtract out EN points, Aho drops down to 0.88 pts/gp and Barzal stays at 0.84, or 95.1% of Aho's pts/gp (about 9.27m of Aho's 9.75m), and a difference of about 3.56 pts over 82 games.
Is Aho better defensively? Well, over the same seasons, Aho had a higher 5v5 on ice GA/60 at 2.49 vs 2.13 for Barzal. But OK, Barzal plays in front of the better goalie, so let's look beyond that. At 5v5 Aho did have a better xGA/60 at 2.55 vs Barzal's 2.75, and also shots were allowed on net at a lower rate while Aho was on the ice at 29.16 SA/60 compared to 31.2 SA/60 for Barzal. Though reasonably close on both stats. this would seem to indicate that maybe Aho has the edge defensively, but since we factored in goalies for GA, we should also factor in the team they played for here, since that's certainly a factor on these stats. Of the 10 forwards to play at least 1000 min TOI at 5v5 for the Canes over these two years, Aho had the highest SA/60 and xGA/60 of any of them, so relative to his team, he was the worst. Aho also had the 2nd worst GA/60 of the 10 regular forwards, with only Necas having a higher rate there. Barzal on the other hand, using the same criteria, ranked 4th best in SA/60 and 6th best in both xGA/60 and GA/60 of the 12 regular forwards for the Islanders, which isn't exactly a defensive stalwart, but certainly ranks better than Aho. At least in terms of actual on ice effect, Aho doesn't seem to have an edge here.
I'm not trying to take anything away from Aho here, I think he's a tremendous player, and would love to have him on the team. And I'm not trying to say I don't have concerns about Barzal's contract and whether he will live up to it, as I absolutely do have concerns there -- any 8 year contract for that much money involves a ton of risk. I also can appreciate that many people value goals more than they value total points, so I get that argument too. But I do think when we look at all the numbers for what the players have done of late -- and please keep in mind I'm not trying to make any predictions here on how well either will fulfill their contract -- the difference is not nearly as great as you suggest and that Barzal's contract seems fine in comparison.
Do you really think someone disagreeing with you is equivalent to being censored?
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