Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[NYI365]

Alright which one of you idiots had enough of Lou's antics?

 

[Osakahaus]

I mean realistically our 3C would be Bo Horvat in this scenario

horvat isn't a 3C

 

[leeroggy]

Alright which one of you idiots had enough of Lou's antics?

Lots of crazy going on
Also, a cargo ship loaded with 3,000 cars catches fire off the Netherlands
The crane fire in Manhattan
Sinead O'Connor might have just passed away this afternoon
And the Federal Reserve shows that academics should be nowhere near decision-making authority

 

[JKP]

Not commenting on the "ignorant" part but the +/- stat is not a very good metric. And for a forward even less so.

And for one that is frequently out against the other top team's top line.

 

[gordie43]

Lots of crazy going on
Also, a cargo ship loaded with 3,000 cars catches fire off the Netherlands
The crane fire in Manhattan
Sinead O'Connor might have just passed away this afternoon
And the Federal Reserve shows that academics should be nowhere near decision-making authority

 

[NYI365]

Lots of crazy going on
Also, a cargo ship loaded with 3,000 cars catches fire off the Netherlands
The crane fire in Manhattan
Sinead O'Connor might have just passed away this afternoon
And the Federal Reserve shows that academics should be nowhere near decision-making authority

Don't forget the major UFO/UAP hearing in Congress this morning too

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Don't forget the major UFO/UAP hearing in Congress this morning too

And Hulk Hogan just got engaged. Madness.

 

[Seph]

I mean realistically our 3C would be Bo Horvat in this scscenario

In terms of matchups, I agree, but in terms of minutes, I'd imagine each of the top 3 lines would get about 14-15 minutes each, so there wouldn't be a real 1st, 2nd or 3rd line. Then the 4th line gets used like a more traditional 4th line at about 9-10 min of 5v5, which should help keep those guys healthy and prevent them from wearing down.

But as I've said before, I don't think there is any real chance we are getting Debrusk or Nylander for something based around Pageau, so the discussion is probably moot anyway.

 

[JPIsles18]

Interesting that you bring up Columbus and Johnny Gaudreau who was rumored to turn us down to go to Columbus lol... and only because they agreed to overpay his friend. Panarin, Gaudreau, Kadri?, all rumored to have passed on us. What more evidence do you need or do you not believe the rumors and think Lou just gives up assets because he doesn't like them? The writing is on the wall. You are going to overpay them, even more so in free agency. Always cheaper to sign someone when there are no competing offers on the table.

JG never got an offer from us. He said so after the Isles fans booed him when they played CBJ: “I was talking to my coach after the third shift, and I was like, ‘I don't get it,'” Gaudreau told ESPN. “I didn't talk to [the Islanders] once throughout the whole free agency.”

Panarin always wanted to go to the Rangers.

We don't know anything about the Kadri situation. I believe we were in it. However, he chose a different team. We could've been offering more, less, or he just simply hated us. Who knows.

Also, aside from a handful of players, 90% of "big time" UFAs do not work out. They're all overpayments (except for the truly rare elite players that become UFAs). Good teams don't build in free agency. The best UFA signings are the superstars and the cheap depth guys with potential. Teams tend to get burned when they sign the middle class.

But as I've said before, I don't think there is any real chance we are getting Debrusk or Nylander for something based around Pageau, so the discussion is probably moot anyway.

There are some Isles fans here that believe Pageau has real trade value. He may have some as he is a competent center. But he ain't getting us Debrusk or Nylander. That's delusional.

 

[JPIsles18]

Pageau is still important due to being a shutdown man. I get why but elevating Cizikas to the 3rd line isn't good, and I like having Nelson on the 2nd line.

Pageau is not a shutdown center. Whoever told you that is lying to you. He's a decent defensive forward with some scoring ability. His reputation as a playoff performer buoys him into people thinking he's really good. He's fine.

Cizikas is a decent 4th line forward. He is probably better defensively than Pageau, but absolutely useless offensively. Cizikas cannot be a 3rd line center. His skillset isn't appropriate for that role.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Pageau is not a shutdown center. Whoever told you that is lying to you. He's a decent defensive forward with some scoring ability. His reputation as a playoff performer buoys him into people thinking he's really good. He's fine.

Cizikas is a decent 4th line forward. He is probably better defensively than Pageau, but absolutely useless offensively. Cizikas cannot be a 3rd line center. His skillset isn't appropriate for that role.

Interestingly enough, the JFresh card is telling us that he wasn't used against team's top options as much as in previous years. The competition number measures the average ice time of the players on the ice for the other team while JGP is out there. The deal is you're supposed to assume that the better players get more ice time. Seems like he wasn't so great on the PK either!

 

[MarsTBOW]

And Hulk Hogan just got engaged. Madness.

Yeah and Carolina just signed Aho for 8 years... Lou has started the "Trust Funds Contract Trend'

 

[LeapOnOver]

JG never got an offer from us. He said so after the Isles fans booed him when they played CBJ: “I was talking to my coach after the third shift, and I was like, ‘I don't get it,'” Gaudreau told ESPN. “I didn't talk to [the Islanders] once throughout the whole free agency.”

Panarin always wanted to go to the Rangers.

We don't know anything about the Kadri situation. I believe we were in it. However, he chose a different team. We could've been offering more, less, or he just simply hated us. Who knows.

Also, aside from a handful of players, 90% of "big time" UFAs do not work out. They're all overpayments (except for the truly rare elite players that become UFAs). Good teams don't build in free agency. The best UFA signings are the superstars and the cheap depth guys with potential. Teams tend to get burned when they sign the middle class.

Okay, well your turn to refute my notion that we are not a UFA destination, lol. Surely you have something to back up the fact that you think we are.

Alright which one of you idiots had enough of Lou's antics?

That's gotta be either Ho-Sang or Galchenyuk

 

[Throttle]

The Johnny Trademark stuff was all made up tweet/click fodder, which was just passed around. It was nothing more than a ‘connect the dots’ scenario of make believe.

 

[Seph]

There are some Isles fans here that believe Pageau has real trade value. He may have some as he is a competent center. But he ain't getting us Debrusk or Nylander. That's delusional.

I am among the fans that believes he has some trade value. I don't think his value is super high, but he is the kind of player teams are usually looking for for the playoffs, so I would think he has some. But yeah, I rather doubt it's nearly enough time expect a return like Nylander/Debrusk.

 

[Seph]

Interestingly enough, the JFresh card is telling us that he wasn't used against team's top options as much as in previous years. The competition number measures the average ice time of the players on the ice for the other team while JGP is out there. The deal is you're supposed to assume that the better players get more ice time. Seems like he wasn't so great on the PK either!

View attachment 731512

Pageau was top 15 in the league for all regular PKers (at least 100 min TOI) for on ice GF% with 26.32%. With 244 skaters playing at least 100 min on the PK, that puts him the top 6.2% of PKers.

I dont know, that seems pretty good to me.

 

[IslesNorway]

Pageau's value hinges on whether a team views his contract as an asset or a deterrent. He's a fine player but in the current climate, with so many teams pressed against, or being over, the cap moving someone with 3 years remaining is gonna be tough, unless a similar deal is going the other way.

 

[WangMustGo]

Pageau's value hinges on whether a team views his contract as an asset or a deterrent. He's a fine player but in the current climate, with so many teams pressed against, or being over, the cap moving someone with 3 years remaining is gonna be tough, unless a similar deal is going the other way.

I think right now his caphit and the salary cap are hurting his value. If the cap goes up significantly next offseason I think Pageaus value will go up assuming he has a good season.

 

[leeroggy]

Interestingly enough, the JFresh card is telling us that he wasn't used against team's top options as much as in previous years. The competition number measures the average ice time of the players on the ice for the other team while JGP is out there. The deal is you're supposed to assume that the better players get more ice time. Seems like he wasn't so great on the PK either!

View attachment 731512

To me, it's just watching the games, he's clearly lost a step as he ages.

We made the ECF in the 2 years that were shortened and that's not a casual coincidence. Trotz's system wore players down. And he's probably the biggest victim of that besides Clutterbuck. As far as being a shutdown center, he did NOT receive a Selke vote this year and the trend for that is bad. The previous year he finished 34th and the FOUR years before that he was 13-16 in all four. Blocks per game are down. More giveaways than takeaways the last 3 years.

I'm not saying he's a BAD player; I'm saying he is on a down curve, and it might well accelerate as he is over 30 and asked to play a game that will further take a toll. Time to take the blinders off, he's $5 million for about $3 million production.

 

[periferal]

I think this board genuinely forgot how bad this team got when we forced Brassard to play 3C in 2019-2020

Trading away Pageau, even for a scoring winger, will hurt this team. Do NOT force this team to play a guy like Heinen at 3C

See and I think people don't focus enough on how acquiring top end talent is the key to winning a Cup.

There are plenty of Cup winning teams that had lackluster bottom 6's...But I don't see many Cup winners that have lackluster top 6's.

I love Pageau, but end of day he's a bottom 6 forward. If we could trade him and more for Draisaitl or Karlsson I'll pack his bags and try to buy (deep) playoff tickets.

 

[Metnut]

A simple litmus test year over year:

Opening night last year (Idk if these were the right lines but this was the roster):

Lee-Barzal-Palmieri
Beau-Nelson-Bailey
Parise-Pageau-Bellows
Martin-Cizikas-Soshnikov


Clutterbuck/Wahlstrom scratched

Pelech-Pulock
Romanov-Dobson
Salo-Mayfield

Sorokin
Varly


Projected '23-'24 Home Opener Roster:

Lee-Horvat-Barzal
Engvall-Nelson-Palmieri
Holmstrom/Wahlstrom-Pageau-Fasching
Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck

One or more of Fasching/Gauthier/Holmstrom/Wahlstrom likely scratched depending who plays 3rd line

Pelech-Pulock
Romanov-Dobson
Aho-Mayfield

Sorokin
Varly

I'll take Roster 2, thank you very much Lou. As of July 24, this team is entering next season on better footing than last season and I think we can all agree on that.

Like others have said, this bottom 6 is really going to struggle to produce scoring. I'd prefer to see a slightly higher upside type bottom 6 giving lines of:

Lee-Horvat-Barzal
Engvall-Nelson-Palmiera
Wahlstrom-Pageau-Ishkatov (or Dufour?)
Parise-Cizikas-Fasching

4th line last year just seemed penned in their own zone too much and took a lot of penalties. New 4th line is defensively responsible yet could still chip in some scoring. Wingers on my 3rd line could be really dangerous (both for us and opponents lol).

Depending on whether Parise comes back, we're going to have a couple of open bottom 6 spots this camp. Let Wahlstrom, Holmstrom, Fasching, Ishkatov, Dufour, Martin and Clutterbuck all fight it out during camp for that playing time. I have the coaching staff has an open mind to how this works out rather than just being committed to the same old 4th line. I'm a little optimistic on this front given how they handled Bailey last year.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Yeah and Carolina just signed Aho for 8 years... Lou has started the "Trust Funds Contract Trend'

this one kinda puts the Barzal contract in some unfortunate light. Aho has paced for over 30 goals every year of his career except his rookie season. He's a top 10-ish center in the league. I'm not sure that Barzal is even a center anymore but we're paying him around 500k less

 

[Osakahaus]

this one kinda puts the Barzal contract in some unfortunate light. Aho has paced for over 30 goals every year of his career except his rookie season. He's a top 10-ish center in the league. I'm not sure that Barzal is even a center anymore but we're paying him around 500k less

Barzal is a guy who gets more assists than goals and that's the kind of player he is. He is a pure playmaker and thats what they need him to be.

Aho is a more complete guy on the contrary but has to power the Canes to go anywhere. Thats why I like barzal and horvat on the same line btw.

 

[MJF]

this one kinda puts the Barzal contract in some unfortunate light. Aho has paced for over 30 goals every year of his career except his rookie season. He's a top 10-ish center in the league. I'm not sure that Barzal is even a center anymore but we're paying him around 500k less

Can’t say this part out loud around here.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

The idea of Pageau for Debrusk is interesting. Sure.

My fantasy trade - and it's admittedly one with plenty of risk, but I could see the new GM in Calgary going for it - would be as follows:
To CAL: Pageau, Clutterbuck, Wahlstrom, and Bolduc
To NYI: Hanifin, Backlund, and Ruzicka

The math should work when one considers that a few bodies will have to be put on waivers anyhooo before opening night. Both Backlund and Hanifin are upcoing UFAs while Ruzicka is an upcoming RFA.

Mind you, I was just operated on and am full of painkillers just now.

But I wanted to get that thought off my chest.