Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[SI]

I look at it as 9 million and needing 3 players personally.

If we can get lucky and re-sign Wahlstrom, have Parise decide to play one more season and get Varly re-upped on the cheap for say 4 million total, then we would be at that number and 19 players.

I have Oliver at 1.05, Zach at the minimum again (.775) and Semyon getting 2 years and $4.6 million (2.3 per)....

We really really need Parise to put on the skates for one more season. Johnston is obviously buried in this scenario.

I think most of us here would be ok penciling in Fasching or Holmstrom as the 13th forward but ideally not both among our forward group, especially if we are keeping the identity line intact for one more year. Only way both are among the 13 is if Parise hangs it up....

I think we all agree pretty much on the two youngsters also not being among our 7 defenseman, specifically talking about Aho and Bolduc. One, we can live with- both is not ideal at all.

So we need another veteran defenseman for a cool million- meaning 8 million left to get a hopeful top 6 winger and either a puck moving D (preferably) or a RD

How are you coming up with 1.05 for Wahlstrom?

The Islanders will have to qualify him and Wahlstrom does not have arbitration rights, so the Isles could essentially stick to the 1-year qualifying offer, which would be .875k. They can try to offer him a 2nd year to buy the 1st year of arbitration, but why since it will most likely be more than 1.05m. It is exactly what they did with Ryan Strome hen his ELC contract expired.

Wouldn’t it be Pageau?

Where does Pageau play in their line up - 4C?
Stutzle, Norris, Pinto are their 3 centers.
JGP @ 5m is an expensive 4th line C

 

[WangMustGo]

No. You can however go and sign Dumba or Orlov let's say... Then after that you can allow for training camp to battle between Durandeau, Dufour, Maggio, etc.

Continuing to sign middling players to mid level deals is not really a path to the Cup at this point. What exactly is the upside in Engvall at $4 million? Does he give this team a 50 point season? I would say no. So at that point he is just another 40-45 point player at best which this team has a ton of already.

Engvall is a great skater and very good at carrying the puck through the neutral zone. I would take him back as long as it wasnt an overpay. 3.5x3-4 and al it a day.

 

[SI]

If Debrincat is willing to extend with the Isles (and I have my doubts based on his list), maybe something like JGP, Wahlstrom and a lottery-protected first (at least top-three protection) for Debrincat and Erik Brännström (a pending RFA also)?

Maybe the Isles add conditional fourth piece depending on getting to the ECF or such? Like a third if they get to the ECF, a second if they get to the SCF and a first if they win the Cup.

Ideally it would be better to get back a RHD3, but I believe Aho can play his offhand too?

I would roll a defense of:

Pelech-Dobson
Erik Brännström-Pulock
Romanov-Aho
Bolduc or Salo in reserve

That is three defense pairings who should each be able to handle 17-18 minutes a night and you can double shift a few to close out a win.

I agree that it will take 2024 1st (not protected or maybe top 3 protected) 2024 class is not as good as 2025 draft class, Wahlstrom (or Dufour), and Pageau could be a package that could work. Forget Branstrom - you cannot have Aho and Brannstrom in the lineup at the same time - both too small

 

[SI]

This would instantly be one of the worst contracts in the NHL.

They have to replace him.

He could get 5x5 on the open market.

 

[SI]

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/nhl-draft-2023.2927478/post-190928701

I don’t think you get it.

They needed to dump the contract - for the cap, for the team to move forward, and for Josh.
In order to do so, they had to give up an asset. The price was a 2nd rounder - we’ve been discussing it for weeks.

Lou was able to do so and did it by keeping the 2024 and 2025 picks and surrendering a pick in 2026. Heading into the 2026 draft both Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri will be impending UFAs -
If the wheels come off, then the Isles will most likely be selling at the trade deadline - these 2 players at 50% retained at the deadline will be able to bring back some draft capital.


Ultimately, the disconnect comes down to that not all subscribe to your way of thinking, your point of view, or your opinions. I certainly don’t subscribe to your opinion about the roster - I see strong C depth, strong RH side D, strong identity and culture, strong defensive D men, an elite goalie, strong PK, but weak PP, weak prospect pool, and an aging roster. I am not ready to see this current group of players to be folded for a rebuild.


In addition, You want LOU out, so whatever he does or does not do leads you to Lou bash.

Going back with the same exact roster would be a massive mistake. Signing Engvall to anything more than 2.5 and it will turn into a contract they cannot get rid of.

Mayfield at 4 is meh. I would rather use the 4 from Mayfield and the 4 from Engvall to bring in an $8 million dollar player.

How are they replacing those minutes? With who?

 

[SI]

That is true. Right side is a bit packed if Barzal is kept there and Wahlstrom isn't traded.

Bertuzzi may be the best option here. Sign him, Varly and a RHD, and the roster looks pretty set aside from a Parise decision.

Bertuzzi - Horvat - Barzal
Lee - Nelson - Wahlstrom
Parise/Holmstrom - JGP - Palmieri
Martin - Cizikas - Fasching

Pelech - Pulock
Romanov - Dobson
Aho/Bolduc - RHD

Sorokin / Varly

Not bad, but the lack of speed is concerning.

I like that you put Palmieri with Lee instead of Wahlstrom.
Who are you replacing Mayfield with? He is more than RHD 3 - he logs a ton of minutes.

 

[SI]

I am shocked deBrincat was not moved during the draft.
It is telling that with all those picks - the Red Wings did not find a deal to be made.

It is difficult for me to imagine JGP is a target for Ottawa unless they are OK with a 5m 4C or they feel Stutzle is more of a LW.

Nelson - Barzal - deBrincat - Horvat as the top 4 F's anchoring the top 2 lines as well as playing together on the PP looks very deadly.

 

[danteipp]

Doesn't Debrincat need to be qualified at $9m? Then is a UFA at the end of the year? That seems like a crazy thing to take on.

I would hope that if Ottawa wants fair value in return, they would allow teams to speak to his agent and find out the cost to extend Debrincat in advance. Of course they could be dumb, like Vancouver and JT Miller, where they didn't allow anyone to talk to him. But essentially a sign and trade benefits everyone. Although I suspect Debrincat would not be interested in the Isles, if his preferred list of teams is accurate. So it is probably a no-go anyway.

 

[Throttle]

EDM might need to clear more cap space, would Cody Ceci (6’2”, 210 lbs right shot D w/ 3.25M per for the next two seasons) be a fit if NYI decides to let Mayfield walk?

Personally, I’d prefer to replace Mayfield with a defenseman capable of playing QB’ing the top PP but that might not be able to happen.

Ceci has no trade protection, so there’s no hurdle for NYI to acquire him and because EDM needs cap space the cost to NYI may be something as little as Johnston. Two years and under 4M per is a reasonable and low risk commitment.

Just a thought…


I mean, it’s not really a stretch to say that NYI “kicked the tires” on a right shot top six forward who can both finish and pass at high speeds, especially from the left side of the ice.

That’s like the exact player that Barzal probably needs to get to the next level, just based on how he used to look with Eberle.

He made up stories for clicks last year on Bailey and Varly, add in all the Johnny Hockey nonsense.

 

[danteipp]

I agree that it will take 2024 1st (not protected or maybe top 3 protected) 2024 class is not as good as 2025 draft class, Wahlstrom (or Dufour), and Pageau could be a package that could work. Forget Branstrom - you cannot have Aho and Brannstrom in the lineup at the same time - both too small

I think you can definitely start the season with both, since they will play with different partners, who help cover their flaws and vice versa. Pulock and Romanov should both fit well with them.

Pulock has evolved into more of a defensive, shutdown defenseman and I could see him doing well with Brännström.

Same for Romanov and Aho, as Romanov brings the physical side while Aho can handle the zone entries and exits, taking that off of Romanov's plate for now.

The problem would be if/when Romanov or Pulock got hurt. Then the defensive lineup would get small very quickly and the Isles would probably need to have a 7th defenseman like a Schenn-type in reserve.

Ideally that 7th defenseman would be able to rotate in for Aho or Brännström against bigger teams too. The Isles will need to add at least one RHD either way. Just a matter of if it is better to invest a lot in one player or spilt the coat between two serviceable types.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I would hope that if Ottawa wants fair value in return, they would allow teams to speak to his agent and find out the cost to extend Debrincat in advance. Of course they could be dumb, like Vancouver and JT Miller, where they didn't allow anyone to talk to him. But essentially a sign and trade benefits everyone. Although I suspect Debrincat would not be interested in the Isles, if his preferred list of teams is accurate. So it is probably a no-go anyway.

Why would he be interested in signing at all when he could take $9m, then decide his own fate next year? Besides, you can't talk next year's contract until after the offseason begins.

I am shocked deBrincat was not moved during the draft.

I'm not. The team trading for him would be on the hook for a big contract and no assurances that he wouldn't bolt after one season.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

No. You can however go and sign Dumba or Orlov let's say...

Then you're at $12.5 million.

 

[SI]

Why would he be interested in signing at all when he could take $9m, then decide his own fate next year? Besides, you can't talk next year's contract until after the offseason begins.


I'm not. The team trading for him would be on the hook for a big contract and no assurances that he wouldn't bolt after one season.

Is that true? He is an RFA - the acquiring team can qualify him or sign him long term in the offseason.

He is a top F... maybe Ottawa wants a hockey trade instead of picks and futures.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Is that true? He is an RFA - the acquiring team can qualify him or sign him long term in the offseason.

That would be true, and I suppose once the team acquires him they could talk, but that team would be forced to take the poison qualification pill to find out. Who wants that?

 

[Throttle]

That would be true, and I suppose once the team acquires him they could talk, but that team would be forced to take the poison qualification pill to find out. Who wants that?

No one apparently…whereas NJD acquired Meier with a $10M qualifier and he was signed.

Beyond his qualifier, seems like most teams don’t want to commit that much cash/term to guy his size, there’s probably doubt about how effective he can be under the term of the deal.

 

[Throttle]

I’d love Dumba

Something doesn’t smell right there. Billy G just letting an original draft pick walk into UFA without a care in the world. Dumba has always been surrounded by trade talk most of his last contract too. Yeah, they don’t have the cap. Seems like Billy G already has a 29 and 33yr old d-men signed long term, tagging Dumba at 29 for 5-6 years doesn’t seem like he wants to go there.

 

[Chardo]

I’d love Dumba

Wish he was a shortstop. Box score would be epic.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Engvall is a great skater and very good at carrying the puck through the neutral zone. I would take him back as long as it wasnt an overpay. 3.5x3-4 and al it a day.

I think this is how the team got into the cap position they are currently in. Palmieri, Lee, Martin, Clutterbuck, and Pageau are all somewhat acceptable contracts independently. Lee and Pageau likely making a million too much but would not have looked as bad had COVID not happened.

The problem is when you start looking at this team needing another elite talent and those contracts are getting in the way.

 

[JPIsles18]

I think Luke Schenn could be a cheap option, but it would be for this season maybe next.

Define cheap. I don't think Schenn will be cheaper than Mayfield. Maybe in years, but I don't believe he'll be much cheaper in terms of cap hit. I believe the Isles need to actually go cheap in that slot or swing for a true top 4 dman. You can't be the team that perpetually overpays depth players.

For DeBrincat they can have him and pretty much almost anything else

I don't believe DeBrincat is the type of player the Isles need right now. There are legitimate concerns about a guy like him in a playoff type environment. He's a catch and shoot type of guy mostly. He's extremely small and his game may not translate to the playoffs. He's an excellent piece at or under 5 (ELC and bridge). I wouldn't want to give a guy like him a massive contract. The skill would be nice. But we need to be very selective about expensive players.

 

[JPIsles18]

Going back with the same exact roster would be a massive mistake. Signing Engvall to anything more than 2.5 and it will turn into a contract they cannot get rid of.

Mayfield at 4 is meh. I would rather use the 4 from Mayfield and the 4 from Engvall to bring in an $8 million dollar player.

This has been Lou's MO. He's so obsessed with keeping this roster together that spending a 2nd round pick to bring back the exact same roster that was not good enough to get past the first round is acceptable to him. But it's early. I'm trying to be optimistic.

I think this is how the team got into the cap position they are currently in. Palmieri, Lee, Martin, Clutterbuck, and Pageau are all somewhat acceptable contracts independently. Lee and Pageau likely making a million too much but would not have looked as bad had COVID not happened.

The problem is when you start looking at this team needing another elite talent and those contracts are getting in the way.

Thank you. A lot of people here love to argue how these guys are not overpaid, etc. But this is 100% correct. When you have so many contracts that are about 1-2 million too rich, that adds up pretty quickly.

 

[MJF]

I think you can definitely start the season with both, since they will play with different partners, who help cover their flaws and vice versa. Pulock and Romanov should both fit well with them.

Brannstrom had better be a helluva lot more solid jn his own end than Aho is, otherwise you’re asking for trouble.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

track Debrincats flights

I saw DeBrincat eating Dippin' Dots

The Cat to NYI confirmed

 

[MatthewBarnabysTears]

Folks here are really overrating the value of our trade assets. I still have hope for Wahlstrom but to the rest of the league, he’s a guy who hasn’t done anything and is going to start costing real money. We have no A-tier prospects. Unless we’re trading multiple firsts, trading for high end talent isn’t realistic.

 

[danteipp]

Why would he be interested in signing at all when he could take $9m, then decide his own fate next year? Besides, you can't talk next year's contract until after the offseason begins.

If Debrincat is going to be traded to a destination he desires, he could sign a long-term contract for security and get paid a bonus upfront and/or get that $9 million now and not have to worry about injury, regression, etc.

I believe the extension date starts July 1, right? So if Ottawa wants to trade him, but allow teams to talk extension to maximize their return or do a sign and trade, the window opens in a day.

 

[danteipp]

Folks here are really overrating the value of our trade assets. I still have hope for Wahlstrom but to the rest of the league, he’s a guy who hasn’t done anything and is going to start costing real money. We have no A-tier prospects. Unless we’re trading multiple firsts, trading for high end talent isn’t realistic.

It doesn't matter what our view is of our assets, just what at least one rival GM thinks. I mean Newhook was awful last season, far worse than Wahly, yet the Montreal GM traded a first, a second and a low-tier prospect for him. Not sure many would have done that trade, but one GM did. And Newhook is also a RFA who is going to start costing real money too.