Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[crashthenet]

Just please improve against bad teams, and get rid of those assistants. That should be the bigger priority.


The islanders are the most needy for a power play QB, and a puck mover.

Can't wait to hear Butchie say Ghosts be here.

 

[doublechili]

Someone proposed a Panarin for Tom Wilson + pick deal on the main board, and WAS fans are saying NO even if it were straight up without the pick.

 

[Osakahaus]

Can't wait to hear Butchie say Ghosts be here.

Would be fine as a 3rd pair guy IMO

 

[LeapOnOver]

That is a way to weaponize cap space. I would like to see the Isles be proactive about dealing players that are on the wrong side of 30 or bad value (Pageau, 4th line) to create the cap space to make such moves. I see a lot of fans up in arms about how no UFAs want to sign here. High priced UFAs almost never pan out.

Good GMs usually nibble on value UFAs and then pounce on these cap casualty type players. Some recent examples include Fiala, Debrincat, Bjorkstrand.

The Panthers do a nice job of this. Until recently the Bob signing was very regrettable so they had to get creative. They have done the following:

2020: Signed Carter Verhaeghe to a 1 mil x 2 year deal. He was 24. This has obviously worked out and then they extended him to a long term deal.
2020: Signed Duclair for a 1.7 cap hit after CBJ decided to not qualify him. He was 24 at the time.
2020: Acquired Brandon Montour for a 3rd round pick then signed him to a 3.5 cap. He was 27 at the time of the trade.
2021: Acquired Sam Bennett for basically a 2nd round pick. He was 24 at the time and pending RFA
2021: Acquired Sam Reinhard for Devon Levi and a late 1st rounder. Then signing him to 6.5 x 3. Reinhart was 25 at the time of the trade.

Then obviously the brilliant and ballsy Tkachuk trade (again, younger player), and drafting Barkov.

They routinely target young players with upside. They aren't diving into the UFA market for core pieces unless they are relatively cheap and young. Lou tends to do the opposite. He trades for established players, usually having career seasons, then pays them well into their 30s for past performance. Wouldn't it make sense to do the opposite? Target players in their early to mid 20s in the trade market. His one example is Romanov. But a 3rd pair dman (at the moment), is not enough.

One of his biggest weaknesses with contracts is paying for past performances. The younger GMs are more likely to give young players these massive 8 year deals to young players (Tkachuk, Mathews, Marner, etc). These contracts usually work out. However, when you give UFAs those contracts, they usually do not.

I like a lot of what you said too, but I still think chemistry is a huge part of the equation. I can see how when a team has reached back to back conference finals based on chemistry alone, you don't want to tinker with it too much. You can see how all these guys that Florida got were talented, however they need to send out great players to get Tkachuk to totally change the team chemistry. I bet Tkachuk played a significant role in readjusting the lockerroom. Without him, you are still looking at a underperforming team...and saw it for many spurts in the regular season.

I do wish LL took more risks though. I'm with you there.

 

[Seph]

Someone proposed a Panarin for Tom Wilson + pick deal on the main board, and WAS fans are saying NO even if it were straight up without the pick.

Can't say I blame them. For 11.6m AAV, 20 pts in 30 playoff games since coming to the Rangers is simply not good enough. Factoring in that Wilson's caphit is less than half that and what else he brings to the ice, I can't blame anyone for thinking the extra offense you get from breadman doesn't make up for the difference in caphit and physical play.

 

[saintunspecified]

Would be fine as a 3rd pair guy IMO

He would've helped NYI's PP more than he helped Carolina's (because they already had Burns - Gostisbehere was redundant). But he's probably going to get a much bigger UFA commitment than he's worth.

 

[IslesNorway]

He would've helped NYI's PP more than he helped Carolina's (because they already had Burns - Gostisbehere was redundant). But he's probably going to get a much bigger UFA commitment than he's worth.

Not so sure about that. By now the league has figured out what he is and they won't overpay.

 

[crashthenet]

Would be fine as a 3rd pair guy IMO

Aho upgrade for sure

 

[periferal]

The less talked about move that NEEDS to be made this summer is signing Sorokin to an extension. He's a UFA in ONE (1) season, so to go through another "Tavares situation" with your generational goaltender (and the only reason you're not a lottery team) would be beyond moronic.

I think Sorokin will sign for the right money in July, but if he won't then you must trade him. Letting him walk for nothing in a year would be dumber than letting Tavares walk for nothing (especially since this ownership group/GM were the ones who experienced that personally).

 

[Strummergas]

The less talked about move that NEEDS to be made this summer is signing Sorokin to an extension. He's a UFA in ONE (1) season, so to go through another "Tavares situation" with your generational goaltender (and the only reason you're not a lottery team) would be beyond moronic.

I think Sorokin will sign for the right money in July, but if he won't then you must trade him. Letting him walk for nothing in a year would be dumber than letting Tavares walk for nothing (especially since this ownership group/GM were the ones who experienced that personally).

OH MY GOD, PLEASE LET SOROKIN SIGN SO WE DON'T HAVE TO READ ENDLESS POSTS ABOUT TRADING HIM NO MATTER WHAT BECAUSE HE HASN"T SIGNED.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

OH MY GOD, PLEASE LET SOROKIN SIGN SO WE DON'T HAVE TO READ ENDLESS POSTS ABOUT TRADING HIM NO MATTER WHAT BECAUSE HE HASN"T SIGNED.

But, they could use the assets to move Bailey.

 

[seafoam]

The less talked about move that NEEDS to be made this summer is signing Sorokin to an extension. He's a UFA in ONE (1) season, so to go through another "Tavares situation" with your generational goaltender (and the only reason you're not a lottery team) would be beyond moronic.

I think Sorokin will sign for the right money in July, but if he won't then you must trade him. Letting him walk for nothing in a year would be dumber than letting Tavares walk for nothing (especially since this ownership group/GM were the ones who experienced that personally).

If they trade him I hope they package you with him.

I don't think I could handle reading your posts during a lottery team phase.

 

[JPIsles18]

Great post, but I don't know this part is true. Have the Mathews and Marner deals worked out? They end up costing the organization because they don't have money left to do anything else. So while the players are good and productive it turns into a net negative for the franchise overall. Also, Mathews got a 5 year deal with insane money, that's terrible asset management. I understand your overall point, that taking a gamble on a player increasing their production over time is better than investing in a depreciating asset, but I just take issue with the idea that these usually work out. How many guys get moved with money retained because they aren't living up to their contract? Even our own Beauvillier was overpaid according to fans. Certainly not a blockbuster type of deal but we do see Laine's and Skinners all the time.

Looking back at older contracts sometimes it's hard to remember that some were really high value because the pay has increased so much. It wasn't that long ago that top players were earning $6M.

This is an interesting debate for sure. I am very clearly in the "Mathews and Marner are not overpaid" camp. Nylander isn't either. I understand what Dubas was doing there, and he got great value for both players in terms of yearly AAV. Both players (Nylander as well), have outperformed their contracts.

"Overpaying" a guy like Mathews will never be a reason you lose games. He's a top 5 player.

The big mistake IMO was the JT move. I understand the thinking, just don't agree with it. That contract was never going to age well. At the time all of these contracts were signed, nobody could've envisioned COVID and the cap coming to a screeching halt.

I believe that you choose 2-3 players as your cornerstones, and you make them your highest paid players, and build around them. Paying Mathews 11.6 x 5 was a much better investment than JT at 11 x 7. I believe the Leafs only bought one Mathews UFA season. In terms of the Mathews deal, I believe he wanted to keep the deals short so that he could cash in 3 times during his career.

Regardless of the actual contract logistics, 11.6 for Mathews has been a bargain. Same with Marner. Same with Nylander. Same can't be said about Tavares.

With Beau, it was a good signing at the time. There was no reason to believe he wouldn't have taken that next step in his development. He didn't. Even though he didn't, and eventually became overpaid, he always had trade value because of his age and relatively short contract.

 

[JPIsles18]

I like a lot of what you said too, but I still think chemistry is a huge part of the equation. I can see how when a team has reached back to back conference finals based on chemistry alone, you don't want to tinker with it too much. You can see how all these guys that Florida got were talented, however they need to send out great players to get Tkachuk to totally change the team chemistry. I bet Tkachuk played a significant role in readjusting the lockerroom. Without him, you are still looking at a underperforming team...and saw it for many spurts in the regular season.

I do wish LL took more risks though. I'm with you there.

There were too many times last season where the Isles did not show up to play. In the playoffs they did. They were outmatched quite easily. They played relatively well against the Canes (save for that one blowout), but their best was not good enough to come out of the first round.

With Lee, Horvat, Nelson, and others, there is enough of a veteran presence where shaking up chemistry should not be an issue. In fact, it may light a fire under peoples asses that if the "identity line" can be moved, anybody can.

At this point the "identity line" are 12th forwards on a good team, individually. Together they are a black hole and have not shown an ability to play with other forwards on this team. So yes, I understand chemistry, but for two years in a row, chemistry has produced a mediocre team. Time to change the chemicals.

Matt Tkachuk was a rare elite talent at the time he got traded, and just got better with the Panthers. Unfortunately, we don't have a player like that. Worst part is that we didn't even have the assets to trade for a guy like that, let alone the cap space. Such is life with Lou: load up on gritty old players and ignore organizational depth. There's still a window, but running it back is not an option.

 

[SI]

There were too many times last season where the Isles did not show up to play. In the playoffs they did. They were outmatched quite easily. They played relatively well against the Canes (save for that one blowout), but their best was not good enough to come out of the first round.

With Lee, Horvat, Nelson, and others, there is enough of a veteran presence where shaking up chemistry should not be an issue. In fact, it may light a fire under peoples asses that if the "identity line" can be moved, anybody can.

At this point the "identity line" are 12th forwards on a good team, individually. Together they are a black hole and have not shown an ability to play with other forwards on this team. So yes, I understand chemistry, but for two years in a row, chemistry has produced a mediocre team. Time to change the chemicals.

Matt Tkachuk was a rare elite talent at the time he got traded, and just got better with the Panthers. Unfortunately, we don't have a player like that. Worst part is that we didn't even have the assets to trade for a guy like that, let alone the cap space. Such is life with Lou: load up on gritty old players and ignore organizational depth. There's still a window, but running it back is not an option.

Not having 1st round picks was not what prevented the team from netting a player like Tkachuk - 1st thing was isles were not on his short list of teams he would accept a deal to and sign an extension and finally it did not take a blue chip prospect nor a 1st rounder to net Tkachuk - it was essentially a hockey trade another 100 point player and a shut down D that were the core pieces to this deal.

So you can blame Lou for depleting the farm system but you cannot blame him for not getting a player like Tkachuk or Eichel because they didn’t have the NHL talent to offer.

 

[IslesNorway]

Not having 1st round picks was not what prevented the team from netting a player like Tkachuk - 1st thing was isles were not on his short list of teams he would accept a deal to and sign an extension and finally it did not take a blue chip prospect nor a 1st rounder to net Tkachuk - it was essentially a hockey trade another 100 point player and a shut down D that were the core pieces to this deal.

So you can blame Lou for depleting the farm system but you cannot blame him for not getting a player like Tkachuk or Eichel because they didn’t have the NHL talent to offer.

This is true, and the last sentence is the crucial one. What talent do the Islanders have to offer in a hockey trade that is desirable to other teams as of now? If we are thinking a hockey trade, then it's not really a lot.
Lou's hands may not be tied but the rope is on his hands.

 

[JPIsles18]

Not having 1st round picks was not what prevented the team from netting a player like Tkachuk - 1st thing was isles were not on his short list of teams he would accept a deal to and sign an extension and finally it did not take a blue chip prospect nor a 1st rounder to net Tkachuk - it was essentially a hockey trade another 100 point player and a shut down D that were the core pieces to this deal.

So you can blame Lou for depleting the farm system but you cannot blame him for not getting a player like Tkachuk or Eichel because they didn’t have the NHL talent to offer.

I never said that not having first round picks was what prevented the trade. What I said was the Isles did not even have the assets to make such a trade even if the Isles were on his list. The Isles did not have the assets or cap space for Fiala, Debrincat, etc.

There are very few assets on this team that would bring back considerable return:

Sorokin, Nelson, Dobson.

That is pitiful. Also, before anybody jumps down my throat about players like Barzal/Horvat, etc. They probably won't bring great return because of their contracts. That is part of the equation when evaluating assets. There isn't a single A level prospect. There aren't many value contracts left on the team.

Reports were that it came down to the Canes and Panthers, and Tkachuk chose the Panthers. The Canes have been relevant for years as a budget team, and they still had the assets for such a trade. Such is the difference between a team that builds with nuance and value in mind and Lou.

Just because we had a few years of playoff success does not mean we couldn't sprinkle in young assets and good contracts in the process. Lou gets a pass a lot by a lot of posters on here because we've set the bar real low on success. The posters that really like him weigh heavily on the two ECF runs. However, the way this franchise is being run without a care for the future, may land us in a very painful and long rebuild. Lou ignored the future in Jersey, and it cost them with a long rebuild. We are on the same trajectory unfortunately. It is not too late to change course, but Lou has to realize the major pitfalls of this roster for that to happen.

 

[Sparksrus3]

I never said that not having first round picks was what prevented the trade. What I said was the Isles did not even have the assets to make such a trade even if the Isles were on his list. The Isles did not have the assets or cap space for Fiala, Debrincat, etc.

There are very few assets on this team that would bring back considerable return:

Sorokin, Nelson, Dobson.

That is pitiful. Also, before anybody jumps down my throat about players like Barzal/Horvat, etc. They probably won't bring great return because of their contracts. That is part of the equation when evaluating assets. There isn't a single A level prospect. There aren't many value contracts left on the team.

Reports were that it came down to the Canes and Panthers, and Tkachuk chose the Panthers. The Canes have been relevant for years as a budget team, and they still had the assets for such a trade. Such is the difference between a team that builds with nuance and value in mind and Lou.

Just because we had a few years of playoff success does not mean we couldn't sprinkle in young assets and good contracts in the process. Lou gets a pass a lot by a lot of posters on here because we've set the bar real low on success. The posters that really like him weigh heavily on the two ECF runs. However, the way this franchise is being run without a care for the future, may land us in a very painful and long rebuild. Lou ignored the future in Jersey, and it cost them with a long rebuild. We are on the same trajectory unfortunately. It is not too late to change course, but Lou has to realize the major pitfalls of this roster for that to happen.

once the Isles are back to selecting 5th in the draft for a few years running we will all be back in our happy place.

I never said that not having first round picks was what prevented the trade. What I said was the Isles did not even have the assets to make such a trade even if the Isles were on his list. The Isles did not have the assets There are very few assets on this team that would bring back considerable return:

Sorokin, Nelson, Dobson.
That is pitiful. Also, before anybody jumps down my throat about players like Barzal/Horvat, etc. They probably won't bring great return because of their contracts. That is part of the equation when evaluating assets. There isn't a single A level prospect. There aren't many value
Reports were that it came down to the Canes and Panthers, and Tkachuk chose the Panthers. The Canes have been relevant for years as a budget team, and they still had the assets for such a trade. Such is the difference between a team that builds with nuance and value in mind and Lou.

Just because we had a few years of playoff success does not mean we couldn't sprinkle in young assets and good contracts in the process. Lou gets a pass a lot by a lot of posters on here because we've set the bar real low on success. The posters that really like him weigh heavily on the two ECF runs. However, the way this franchise is being run without a care for the future, may land us in a very painful and long rebuild. Lou ignored the future in Jersey, and it cost them with a long rebuild. We are on the same trajectory unfortunately. It is not too late to change course, but Lou has to realize the major pitfalls of this roster for that to happen.

 

[YearlyLottery]

I never said that not having first round picks was what prevented the trade. What I said was the Isles did not even have the assets to make such a trade even if the Isles were on his list. The Isles did not have the assets or cap space for Fiala, Debrincat, etc.

There are very few assets on this team that would bring back considerable return:

Sorokin, Nelson, Dobson.

That is pitiful. Also, before anybody jumps down my throat about players like Barzal/Horvat, etc. They probably won't bring great return because of their contracts. That is part of the equation when evaluating assets. There isn't a single A level prospect. There aren't many value contracts left on the team.

Reports were that it came down to the Canes and Panthers, and Tkachuk chose the Panthers. The Canes have been relevant for years as a budget team, and they still had the assets for such a trade. Such is the difference between a team that builds with nuance and value in mind and Lou.

Just because we had a few years of playoff success does not mean we couldn't sprinkle in young assets and good contracts in the process. Lou gets a pass a lot by a lot of posters on here because we've set the bar real low on success. The posters that really like him weigh heavily on the two ECF runs. However, the way this franchise is being run without a care for the future, may land us in a very painful and long rebuild. Lou ignored the future in Jersey, and it cost them with a long rebuild. We are on the same trajectory unfortunately. It is not too late to change course, but Lou has to realize the major pitfalls of this roster for that to happen.

Jersey was a contender until Parise left for nothing (Lou's fault) and Kovy randomly retired in his prime.

 

[doublechili]

There are a lot of suggestions to dismantle the 4th line. I agree that their time is running down, but before we think about rolling out Parise-Durandeau-Holmstrom, this blogger's choice of words has some merit (in an article discussing what CGY needs to do in the offseason):

"4.) Build an Absolutely Miserable Fourth Line to Play Against
While it sounds fun to roll out the youngest, cutest, most talented bottom six possible — there’s a bit of a fallacy there. The primary issue being that both teams playing on any given night are still comprised of humans that react to emotions and can feel intimidated or frustrated by being physically assaulted."

HockeyBuzz.com - Trevor Neufeld - A Four-Point Plan to Make the Calgary Flames Enjoyable to Watch Again

www.hockeybuzz.com

 

[periferal]

So you can blame Lou for depleting the farm system but you cannot blame him for not getting a player like Tkachuk or Eichel because they didn’t have the NHL talent to offer.

I don't care about Tkachuk or Eichel per se, but when you're trading 1st round picks for guys like Pageau, Palmeiri, and Romanov then you're burning the candle at both ends when it comes to being able to add elite players like those being discussed.

 

[Lek]

There are a lot of suggestions to dismantle the 4th line. I agree that their time is running down, but before we think about rolling out Parise-Durandeau-Holmstrom, this blogger's choice of words has some merit (in an article discussing what CGY needs to do in the offseason):

"4.) Build an Absolutely Miserable Fourth Line to Play Against
While it sounds fun to roll out the youngest, cutest, most talented bottom six possible — there’s a bit of a fallacy there. The primary issue being that both teams playing on any given night are still comprised of humans that react to emotions and can feel intimidated or frustrated by being physically assaulted."

HockeyBuzz.com - Trevor Neufeld - A Four-Point Plan to Make the Calgary Flames Enjoyable to Watch Again

www.hockeybuzz.com

good write up

 

[PK Cronin]

There are a lot of suggestions to dismantle the 4th line. I agree that their time is running down, but before we think about rolling out Parise-Durandeau-Holmstrom, this blogger's choice of words has some merit (in an article discussing what CGY needs to do in the offseason):

"4.) Build an Absolutely Miserable Fourth Line to Play Against
While it sounds fun to roll out the youngest, cutest, most talented bottom six possible — there’s a bit of a fallacy there. The primary issue being that both teams playing on any given night are still comprised of humans that react to emotions and can feel intimidated or frustrated by being physically assaulted."

HockeyBuzz.com - Trevor Neufeld - A Four-Point Plan to Make the Calgary Flames Enjoyable to Watch Again

www.hockeybuzz.com

I'd like to get younger guys who can do the same thing the fourth line used to do, but do it quicker.

 

[JPIsles18]

I'd like to get younger guys who can do the same thing the fourth line used to do, but do it quicker.

God bless this sentiment. I don't understand why it has to be 30+ year olds that cannot score or do anything but get caved in whenever on the ice.

I understand loyalty and nostalgia, but two seasons of mostly bad hockey is not acceptable. Time to move on. I'm all for getting mean players who are tough to play against. I just do not buy into the narrative that they have to be in their 30s and provide nothing else.

 

[danteipp]

The key for the Isles will be Barzal and Dobson. They both have talent to take their games to the next level, but will they put in the work to do it?

Dobson clearly needs to get stronger. That should be an easy fix but requires dedication from the player.

Barzal needs to also come back healthy and, most importantly, needs to adapt his game to produce better results on the ice. That is more of a mental aspect and maturity. So far I have seen little from Barzal but he can do it if he wants.

If they can elevate their games, then the Isles will be OK.

If they cannot, and the Isles front office and coaching should know better than anyone what they are or are not capable of, then they are the assets that you move for a Tkachuk-type. But you have to make a call before those assets lose too much value.

Then build around Horvat, Nelson and JGP down the middle, while always on the lookout to add another young center to eventually replace JGP.

The Isles are at a clear fork in the road and the next several decisions, like getting a true, puck-moving defenseman vs. just extending Mayfield, will be very important and telling.