Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[Osakahaus]

LA will be willing to move Sean Durzi. This could be a Montour 2.0 situation where you can get a puck mover & PPQB with upside on the cheap.

1.7M per and an RFA after next season should be quite attractive to the Islanders, who desperately need help on the PP.

Do it for the isles, but only if we can get a decent return

 

[periferal]

LA will be willing to move Sean Durzi. This could be a Montour 2.0 situation where you can get a puck mover & PPQB with upside on the cheap.

1.7M per and an RFA after next season should be quite attractive to the Islanders, who desperately need help on the PP.

Why would the Kings be "willing to move Sean Durzi?" An improving young defenseman who can score and next year when he's an RFA they will have 40M in cap space....

And if Romanov cost a 1st, you'd have to add a significant piece to get Durzi.

What are we missing here?

 

[leeroggy]

Why would the Kings be "willing to move Sean Durzi?" An improving young defenseman who can score and next year when he's an RFA they will have 40M in cap space....

And if Romanov cost a 1st, you'd have to add a significant piece to get Durzi.

What are we missing here?

You're missing the logjam in LA

Besides the 7 defensemen, who ALL can play, there's Clarke and Bjornfot and Spence knocking on the door. Someone will be available if either Gavrikov or Edler are re-signed. Edler is 37, so the odds are he leaves, but I doubt they traded that much for Gavrikov to only let him go.

 

[The Wahligator]

Why would the Kings be "willing to move Sean Durzi?" An improving young defenseman who can score and next year when he's an RFA they will have 40M in cap space....

And if Romanov cost a 1st, you'd have to add a significant piece to get Durzi.

What are we missing here?

Go over to the LA board. They have a glut of RD and they think Durzi is the odd man out. Most would be happy with a 2nd.

 

[steveat]

Just had a brainfart.

Dubas might get the GM job for Ottawa. Dubas and Lou are close.

Could we see a DeBrincat move?

Please let me know how stinky the brainfart was.

 

[PK Cronin]

Why would the Kings be "willing to move Sean Durzi?" An improving young defenseman who can score and next year when he's an RFA they will have 40M in cap space....

And if Romanov cost a 1st, you'd have to add a significant piece to get Durzi.

What are we missing here?

As others mentioned, just a glut of defenseman and he has been rumored to be the odd guy out.

That's the type of move the Islanders need to make at this point. Get younger, with upside. If they do that while maintaining the status quo in the standings they will have a better long term outlook.

 

[Osakahaus]

Why would the Kings be "willing to move Sean Durzi?" An improving young defenseman who can score and next year when he's an RFA they will have 40M in cap space....

And if Romanov cost a 1st, you'd have to add a significant piece to get Durzi.

What are we missing here?

Because the Kings are not liking Durzi

 

[doublechili]

I actually totally agree with the bolded. Now here's the problem...

1) What "skating, puck-distributing defenseman" is available in a trade?
2) How can we fit them under the cap...?
3) ...Much less resign Varly, Mayfield, Engvall, etc?
4) And how can we afford them in a trade?

Dobson should be this player for us, but he's regressed. It's also why I think for all his flaws, Leddy is also missed because when he decided to do it he was the 2nd best player on the team in terms of entering the offensive zone.

Since I don't see how we can find that kind of player taking into account everything listed 1-4 above, adding a defensive defenseman who doesn't make the mistakes that Mayfield, Romanov, Aho, do would be a big plus. I'd rather be deeper at forward/center then watch the defense that I saw down the stretch/in the playoffs just a few weeks ago. Any move that keeps guys like Aho and Bolduc in the AHL is one I'm going to support.

And again none of this materially improves the scoring on this team or adds the kind of impact player that the successful playoff teams are benefitting from. Horvat is a nice player, but he's not on the level of a Eichel or Tkachuk.

If Lou was going to mortgage our future I'd rather he be doing it for guys like that. Take back the 3 1st rounders given up for Pageau, Palmieri, and Romanov and give them along with Beauvillier/Raty for someone elite like Eichel.

To me if you're going to go ALL IN, then f***ing go all in. Enough trading 1sts for middle 6 players.

Players will be available in trades. Durzi has already been mentioned. There will be others. There could even be guys where we send a bad salary (Bailey, cough) the other way. There are potential UFAs (Ghost, Dumba, Severson, etc.), but obviously the cap is the issue. But if you let Mayfield walk you just created $3.5-$4M in cap space to sign one of these guys instead. Do I want to bet that Lou lets Mayfield leave? Not necessarily, but we'll see. I really hope he does something on D and doesn't just count on development of young guys. Could happen, but I'd rather not risk the season on it (and I'm not 80 like the GM!).

 

[JKP]

Meanwhile on Florida’s bench, Maurice showed more emotion in a 15 second clip than Lambert did all year combined.

Trotz rarely showed emotion and Doug Weight showed tons of it. I really don’t get the relevance to it.

I think Lane will improve as a sophomore coach. How much he improves is going to be the question…

 

[JKP]

I sit opposite the Isles bench at UBS. During the season Lambert was usually animated, patting guys on the back, chirping, clapping, standing up on the bench, etc. So I've been observing him a lot, same as Trotz the previous year. In the 3rd period of Game 6 Lambert looked like a deer caught in the headlights. Think Captain Queeg on the bridge during the storm in The Caine Mutiny. The situation got too big for Lambert.

Maybe he was using geometric logic to figure out which player ate the strawberries….

 

[MJF]

Maybe he was using geometric logic to figure out which player ate the strawberries….

Ahh but the strawberries…

 

[PK Cronin]

 

[Skip To My Lou]

Trotz rarely showed emotion and Doug Weight showed tons of it. I really don’t get the relevance to it.

I think Lane will improve as a sophomore coach. How much he improves is going to be the question…

I think Lane was given an impossible task to follow Trotz. He was given an aging (and worse) roster than what Trotz had, and he still managed to will the team to the playoffs. Not only that, but making the playoffs after that dreaded January is quite impressive.

I don't agree with a lot of coaching decisions (and hate his interviews), but there were parts of last season where I was happy with him. Which is why I wasn't mad he was retained. Let's see how he fares.

 

[CupHolders]

Interestingly it reminds me an awful lot of this hit from last year…

 

[SI]

I actually totally agree with the bolded. Now here's the problem...

1) What "skating, puck-distributing defenseman" is available in a trade?
2) How can we fit them under the cap...?
3) ...Much less resign Varly, Mayfield, Engvall, etc?
4) And how can we afford them in a trade?

Dobson should be this player for us, but he's regressed. It's also why I think for all his flaws, Leddy is also missed because when he decided to do it he was the 2nd best player on the team in terms of entering the offensive zone.

Since I don't see how we can find that kind of player taking into account everything listed 1-4 above, adding a defensive defenseman who doesn't make the mistakes that Mayfield, Romanov, Aho, do would be a big plus. I'd rather be deeper at forward/center then watch the defense that I saw down the stretch/in the playoffs just a few weeks ago. Any move that keeps guys like Aho and Bolduc in the AHL is one I'm going to support.

And again none of this materially improves the scoring on this team or adds the kind of impact player that the successful playoff teams are benefitting from. Horvat is a nice player, but he's not on the level of a Eichel or Tkachuk.

If Lou was going to mortgage our future I'd rather he be doing it for guys like that. Take back the 3 1st rounders given up for Pageau, Palmieri, and Romanov and give them along with Beauvillier/Raty for someone elite like Eichel.

To me if you're going to go ALL IN, then f***ing go all in. Enough trading 1sts for middle 6 players.

That package doesn't land you an Eichel. It's laughable.
Tuch, Huberdeau, Weegar - NHL talent was needed.

And I understand what you are trying to say but it doesn't work like that.
If the Isles had Ridley Greig (Pageau pick), Stillman (Palmieri pick), Nazar (the Romanov pick), Raty, & Beauvillier for Tkachuk - that still does not beat the Panthers' offer, who also by the way wanted to sign there! Rumour was Necas was going the other way for Tkachuk in a Carolina deal - Isles package still doesn't come close.

For Eichel - the Vegas deal is still better because of the quality, not the quantity.

Pageau and Palmieri both were catalysts in getting the team to the conference finals - those are not small feats.

I think you value a late 1st too highly.

 

[SI]

Why would the Kings be "willing to move Sean Durzi?" An improving young defenseman who can score and next year when he's an RFA they will have 40M in cap space....

And if Romanov cost a 1st, you'd have to add a significant piece to get Durzi.

What are we missing here?

I think you are overvaluing Durzi - that's what's missing. And the Kings have Brandt Clarke coming up and they already Roy and Doughty on the right side as their top 4 RHD.

Durzi ill be dangled to fill another need.

 

[YearlyLottery]

I think you are overvaluing Durzi - that's what's missing. And the Kings have Brandt Clarke coming up and they already Roy and Doughty on the right side as their top 4 RHD.

Durzi ill be dangled to fill another need.

Durzi being moved for something sort of cheap is similar to why the Isles were able to get Leddy and Boychuk for cheap (and then trade Toews and Leddy for very little). In a salary cap world trades like this are often made.

 

[IslesNorway]

Durzi being moved for something sort of cheap is similar to why the Isles were able to get Leddy and Boychuk for cheap (and then trade Toews and Leddy for very little). In a salary cap world trades like this are often made.

It's all about the timing isn't it? When the Isles got Boychuck and Leddy it was on the eve of the season, and the Toews trade was made before the expansion draft, IIRC. Bjorkstrand was moved to Seattle right before free agency so they could make a splash.

These trades are made every now and then, and I think it would be a good move, but the timing is very important. I'm sure the Isles won't be the only ones interested.

 

[JPIsles18]

Durzi being moved for something sort of cheap is similar to why the Isles were able to get Leddy and Boychuk for cheap (and then trade Toews and Leddy for very little). In a salary cap world trades like this are often made.

That is a way to weaponize cap space. I would like to see the Isles be proactive about dealing players that are on the wrong side of 30 or bad value (Pageau, 4th line) to create the cap space to make such moves. I see a lot of fans up in arms about how no UFAs want to sign here. High priced UFAs almost never pan out.

Good GMs usually nibble on value UFAs and then pounce on these cap casualty type players. Some recent examples include Fiala, Debrincat, Bjorkstrand.

The Panthers do a nice job of this. Until recently the Bob signing was very regrettable so they had to get creative. They have done the following:

2020: Signed Carter Verhaeghe to a 1 mil x 2 year deal. He was 24. This has obviously worked out and then they extended him to a long term deal.
2020: Signed Duclair for a 1.7 cap hit after CBJ decided to not qualify him. He was 24 at the time.
2020: Acquired Brandon Montour for a 3rd round pick then signed him to a 3.5 cap. He was 27 at the time of the trade.
2021: Acquired Sam Bennett for basically a 2nd round pick. He was 24 at the time and pending RFA
2021: Acquired Sam Reinhard for Devon Levi and a late 1st rounder. Then signing him to 6.5 x 3. Reinhart was 25 at the time of the trade.

Then obviously the brilliant and ballsy Tkachuk trade (again, younger player), and drafting Barkov.

They routinely target young players with upside. They aren't diving into the UFA market for core pieces unless they are relatively cheap and young. Lou tends to do the opposite. He trades for established players, usually having career seasons, then pays them well into their 30s for past performance. Wouldn't it make sense to do the opposite? Target players in their early to mid 20s in the trade market. His one example is Romanov. But a 3rd pair dman (at the moment), is not enough.

One of his biggest weaknesses with contracts is paying for past performances. The younger GMs are more likely to give young players these massive 8 year deals to young players (Tkachuk, Mathews, Marner, etc). These contracts usually work out. However, when you give UFAs those contracts, they usually do not.

 

[seafoam]

Why would the Kings be "willing to move Sean Durzi?" An improving young defenseman who can score and next year when he's an RFA they will have 40M in cap space....

And if Romanov cost a 1st, you'd have to add a significant piece to get Durzi.

What are we missing here?

Both Brandt and Spence are right shot D, just like Durzi.

The same goes for Spence, 22, though for the AHL standout it’s more about being blocked on the right side of the defense, given the expected emergence of Brandt Clarke.

Durzi is listed in potential trade chips.

Potential trade chips​

Sean Durzi, Sean Walker

Of the two right-shot defenders, the 24-year-old Durzi is probably more desirable for a team that has need for a puck-mover. Even with his warts, Durzi is younger and has much more offensive upside (especially on the power play) and has a year left that pays him $2 million in real salary with a cap hit of just $1.7 million.

They have a Dobson level OFD prospect in Clarke, the writing is on the wall to dangle Durzi.

 

[PK Cronin]

That is a way to weaponize cap space. I would like to see the Isles be proactive about dealing players that are on the wrong side of 30 or bad value (Pageau, 4th line) to create the cap space to make such moves. I see a lot of fans up in arms about how no UFAs want to sign here. High priced UFAs almost never pan out.

Good GMs usually nibble on value UFAs and then pounce on these cap casualty type players. Some recent examples include Fiala, Debrincat, Bjorkstrand.

The Panthers do a nice job of this. Until recently the Bob signing was very regrettable so they had to get creative. They have done the following:

2020: Signed Carter Verhaeghe to a 1 mil x 2 year deal. He was 24. This has obviously worked out and then they extended him to a long term deal.
2020: Signed Duclair for a 1.7 cap hit after CBJ decided to not qualify him. He was 24 at the time.
2020: Acquired Brandon Montour for a 3rd round pick then signed him to a 3.5 cap. He was 27 at the time of the trade.
2021: Acquired Sam Bennett for basically a 2nd round pick. He was 24 at the time and pending RFA
2021: Acquired Sam Reinhard for Devon Levi and a late 1st rounder. Then signing him to 6.5 x 3. Reinhart was 25 at the time of the trade.

Then obviously the brilliant and ballsy Tkachuk trade (again, younger player), and drafting Barkov.

They routinely target young players with upside. They aren't diving into the UFA market for core pieces unless they are relatively cheap and young. Lou tends to do the opposite. He trades for established players, usually having career seasons, then pays them well into their 30s for past performance. Wouldn't it make sense to do the opposite? Target players in their early to mid 20s in the trade market. His one example is Romanov. But a 3rd pair dman (at the moment), is not enough.

One of his biggest weaknesses with contracts is paying for past performances. The younger GMs are more likely to give young players these massive 8 year deals to young players (Tkachuk, Mathews, Marner, etc). These contracts usually work out. However, when you give UFAs those contracts, they usually do not.

Great post, but I don't know this part is true. Have the Mathews and Marner deals worked out? They end up costing the organization because they don't have money left to do anything else. So while the players are good and productive it turns into a net negative for the franchise overall. Also, Mathews got a 5 year deal with insane money, that's terrible asset management. I understand your overall point, that taking a gamble on a player increasing their production over time is better than investing in a depreciating asset, but I just take issue with the idea that these usually work out. How many guys get moved with money retained because they aren't living up to their contract? Even our own Beauvillier was overpaid according to fans. Certainly not a blockbuster type of deal but we do see Laine's and Skinners all the time.

Looking back at older contracts sometimes it's hard to remember that some were really high value because the pay has increased so much. It wasn't that long ago that top players were earning $6M.

 

[saintunspecified]

Great post, but I don't know this part is true. Have the Mathews and Marner deals worked out?

Those deals might have been off a total of 2-3M AAV. The whole Tavares deal was a mistake. Much better to make a 2-3M AAV mistake on 2 young stars, than the UFA deal. Put Pietrangelo instead of Tavares on the Leafs, and it's a cup finals team. Not saying that they could have done that, just making the point about salary allocation.

Apart from this, Florida has made as many mistakes as they've made great moves. Most notably trading Riley Smith & a 4th to Vegas as a dump, while losing Marchassault in the expansion draft.

 

[PK Cronin]

Those deals might have been off a total of 2-3M AAV. The whole Tavares deal was a mistake. Much better to make a 2-3M AAV mistake on 2 young stars, than the UFA deal. Put Pietrangelo instead of Tavares on the Leafs, and it's a cup finals team. Not saying that they could have done that, just making the point about salary allocation.

Apart from this, Florida has made as many mistakes as they've made great moves. Most notably trading Riley Smith & a 4th to Vegas as a dump, while losing Marchassault in the expansion draft.

That's probably true. The Matthews one was bad because of the length as well but that's a specific contract instead of a general trend.

It all comes down to timing with the young guys. The other saving grace with the younger players is that there are generally more interest in GMs giving that player another chance if you need to move them. A 35 year old isn't going to get that same treatment.

 

[Stercrazy]

As others mentioned, just a glut of defenseman and he has been rumored to be the odd guy out.

That's the type of move the Islanders need to make at this point. Get younger, with upside. If they do that while maintaining the status quo in the standings they will have a better long term outlook.

I think the question is why would LA let him go on the cheap? I'm sure there are other teams that could use a Durzi type player and considering the Isles lack of assets to trade....most likely will be moved for the best offer.

 

[Osakahaus]

Trotz rarely showed emotion and Doug Weight showed tons of it. I really don’t get the relevance to it.

I think Lane will improve as a sophomore coach. How much he improves is going to be the question…

Just please improve against bad teams, and get rid of those assistants. That should be the bigger priority.

I think the question is why would LA let him go on the cheap? I'm sure there are other teams that could use a Durzi type player and considering the Isles lack of assets to trade....most likely will be moved for the best offer.

The islanders are the most needy for a power play QB, and a puck mover.