Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[doublechili]

Interesting piece. The analytics cited in the article projects Mayfield's contract at $3x 3.75m and Varlamov to come in at 2x$2.75.

Fun to read. I see he has Engvall coming in at 4x$4.1M. My analytics project him as coming in lower than that.

He has Dumba at 3x$4.4M. That's lower than I would have thought - has his game/value fallen off that much?

 

[gordie43]

Interesting piece. The analytics cited in the article projects Mayfield's contract at $3x 3.75m and Varlamov to come in at 2x$2.75.

It’s impossible to know what a guy is really worth, but at those numbers I would be inclined to bring back mayfield. He’s had his ups and downs, but if he’s playing a 4 or 5 role that is a good price.

 

[seafoam]

LA will be willing to move Sean Durzi. This could be a Montour 2.0 situation where you can get a puck mover & PPQB with upside on the cheap.

1.7M per and an RFA after next season should be quite attractive to the Islanders, who desperately need help on the PP.

 

[JPIsles18]

LA will be willing to move Sean Durzi. This could be a Montour 2.0 situation where you can get a puck mover & PPQB with upside on the cheap.

1.7M per and an RFA after next season should be quite attractive to the Islanders, who desperately need help on the PP.

He would be an amazing get. However, I don't know what assets the Isles have that the Kings would want. He takes too many penalties, but he's an above average dman on both sides of the puck in relatively sheltered minutes at this time.

As a RHD, and cheap, I assume that the Isles get easily outbid for his rights. He'd be a good Mayfield replacement. However, he isn't as good defensively as Mayfield.

The Isles need to do something with their D Corps. As constructed, it isn't working. Romanov/Dobson is more of a 3rd pair at the moment. Development is rarely linear though, so hopefully both those guys learn how to play defense at some point.

 

[seafoam]

He would be an amazing get. However, I don't know what assets the Isles have that the Kings would want. He takes too many penalties, but he's an above average dman on both sides of the puck in relatively sheltered minutes at this time.

As a RHD, and cheap, I assume that the Isles get easily outbid for his rights. He'd be a good Mayfield replacement. However, he isn't as good defensively as Mayfield.

The Isles need to do something with their D Corps. As constructed, it isn't working. Romanov/Dobson is more of a 3rd pair at the moment. Development is rarely linear though, so hopefully both those guys learn how to play defense at some point.

Durzi has warts but he’s 24 and only has 150 NHL games under his belt. Plenty of time to clean up his game.

Mayfield actually had more giveaways last season (albeit in about 300 more minutes), but Durzi’s offensive upside, age, and contract rights make him an intriguing option for me as opposed to investing 4 more years in Mayfield at a premium price.

 

[leeroggy]

As I look through that list of UFA's, a few thoughts:

Buyout Bailey and trade Pageau for whatever we can get (I'm not in the camp that we need to use assets to get rid of him; someone will be interested). If Durandeau is ready, I would also trade Cizikas to open up cap space.

If Varly comes in at $2,750,000, that's a no-brainer for me since he gives Sorokin as much off the ice as on.

Engvall is too pricey for 4 years and it's a 50/50 call if around $3,500,000. I don't see any chance that Mayfield settles for that projection, someone will look at him as a Top 4 and go higher.

Looking at that list, the ones that interest me, assuming we open the money slots:

Evan Rodrigues to replace Pageau as 3C

Jason Zucker to play in the Top 6

Sean Monahan is very interesting, since he was productive with Montreal before hurting his groin. The groin is not nearly as serious as what he had before and if that projection is right, he would be a great 4th C backup plan if Durandeau fails to stay.

Connor Clifton might well slot into Mayfield's spot and would save money. So would Carson Soucy.

With all this money saved, we could look for a trade for a LHD to compete with Aho. I don't know enough about Orlov and the PP to go with that comfortably.

One thing to keep an eye on is who might get a buyout and be willing to play cheap, like Parise.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson at $2 million? Have to think hard about that one, but I'd be very interested as the 3rd LD. Klingberg at $2-3 million? Played well on Minnesota to end the year. Both have experience running a PP.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I never wanted Lambert here in the first place. That being said, I credit him for recognizing that he had to change his game plan to a defense oriented system back in January. The team made the playoffs by the skin of their terth. However his 3rd period in Game 6, where he basically couldn’t get his players to get off their heels and back on their toes, was a coaching FAIL. I watched him on the bench that period. He was lost. Stopped talking, was stoic instead of animated, whereas Houda and MacLean were doing all the gesturing. Not recognizing he needed to take a time out to try and stem the bleeding? He lost his game awareness. That can never happen to a coach.

So the answer to your question is yes, I’d fire Lambert for somebody battle tested. The Isles are a veteran roster built to win now (according to others). You don’t give a rookie coach the keys, and I’m not interested in waiting for him to learn on the job.

Fair. I think that not wanting him here in the first place is the soundest argument. Now that he's here though, don't really see anything after his first season to warrant him being fired.

Body language and gesturing? Really? We're critiquing that again? They lost that series because the offense and PP let them down. Again.

Why do you go to the either/or scenario to make your point?

Me?

 

[Tahoeblue]

LA will be willing to move Sean Durzi. This could be a Montour 2.0 situation where you can get a puck mover & PPQB with upside on the cheap.

1.7M per and an RFA after next season should be quite attractive to the Islanders, who desperately need help on the PP.

I watch a lot of the Kings and I agree about Durzi and really like how the Kings play and are constructed. I know the Cal Peterson contract is terrible, but I wonder if the LAK would retain some salary in a transaction with either a Durzi or Kailyev. I don't know, maybe Bailey goes the other way or something.

Somebody also mentioned Evan Rodrigues as well. Glad this thread finally went back to discussing trades and possible UFA's. Going to be a long offseason and Lou has some work to do

 

[seafoam]

I never wanted Lambert here in the first place. That being said, I credit him for recognizing that he had to change his game plan to a defense oriented system back in January. The team made the playoffs by the skin of their terth. However his 3rd period in Game 6, where he basically couldn’t get his players to get off their heels and back on their toes, was a coaching FAIL. I watched him on the bench that period. He was lost. Stopped talking, was stoic instead of animated, whereas Houda and MacLean were doing all the gesturing. Not recognizing he needed to take a time out to try and stem the bleeding? He lost his game awareness. That can never happen to a coach.

So the answer to your question is yes, I’d fire Lambert for somebody battle tested. The Isles are a veteran roster built to win now (according to others). You don’t give a rookie coach the keys, and I’m not interested in waiting for him to learn on the job.


Why do you go to the either/or scenario to make your point?

Meanwhile on Florida’s bench, Maurice showed more emotion in a 15 second clip than Lambert did all year combined.

 

[MJF]

Body language and gesturing? Really? We're critiquing that again? They lost that series because the offense and PP let them down. Again.

In time we’ll put an android behind the bench and we can take emotion out of the equation. ‘kay?

Are you all right with the rest of my assessment of Lambert’s Game 6?

 

[seafoam]

I watch a lot of the Kings and I agree about Durzi and really like how the Kings play and are constructed. I know the Cal Peterson contract is terrible, but I wonder if the LAK would retain some salary in a transaction with either a Durzi of Kailyev. I don't know, maybe Bailey goes the other way or something.

Somebody also mentioned Evan Rodrigues as well. Glad this thread finally went back to discussing trades and possible UFA's. Going to be a long offseason and Lou has some work to do

Durzi + Petersen (25% retained) for Bailey would basically be a wash cap wise and NYI would fill two holes while opening up a roster spot up front.

I still think Lamoriello would prefer to keep Varlamov, but someone might throw big money at him.

 

[The Wahligator]

Durzi + Petersen (25% retained) for Bailey would basically be a wash cap wise and NYI would fill two holes while opening up a roster spot up front.

I still think Lamoriello would prefer to keep Varlamov, but someone might throw big money at him.

This is the type of thinking Lamoriello needs to have this summer. He needs to get creative with some of his moves if we’re going to improve.

 

[periferal]

IDK - I just don't see that. If I had to guess I'd say that they both have positive value. Worst case, I'd think that they could be moved for a player with a similar contract who fills a hole.

It's the remaining years on their contracts that is the problem, but most importantly...What is the point of moving a player, for the exact same type of player? Are we trying to fill holes or stay the same...?

This team is too good at treading water. The goal here needs to improve (if even possible).

 

[NC 1972]

LA will be willing to move Sean Durzi. This could be a Montour 2.0 situation where you can get a puck mover & PPQB with upside on the cheap.

1.7M per and an RFA after next season should be quite attractive to the Islanders, who desperately need help on the PP.

And everyone else.

 

[NC 1972]

Meanwhile on Florida’s bench, Maurice showed more emotion in a 15 second clip than Lambert did all year combined.

Just a few choice words for the boys!

 

[Doshell Propivo]

In time we’ll put an android behind the bench and we can take emotion out of the equation. ‘kay?

I just think that fans overanalyze (well everything lol) how a coach acts in-game. Facial expressions and yelling and screaming during the game should not be a barometer. We're not privy to 90% of the actual coaching (and emotions that come into play) that occurs. I evaluate coaches based on results.

Are you all right with the rest of my assessment of Lambert’s Game 6?

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Meanwhile on Florida’s bench, Maurice showed more emotion in a 15 second clip than Lambert did all year combined.

That was the turning point of their season, If they lost that game they probably miss the playoffs. Instead they go on a late season run, make the playoffs and are now about to go to the SCF. Amazing. Well timed tantrum by Maurice. My issue is that fans what to see reactions like that all the time. After every mistake, every bad goal and every loss.

 

[MJF]

I just think that fans overanalyze (well everything lol) how a coach acts in-game. Facial expressions and yelling and screaming during the game should not be a barometer. We're not privy to 90% of the actual coaching (and emotions that come into play) that occurs. I evaluate coaches based on results.

I sit opposite the Isles bench at UBS. During the season Lambert was usually animated, patting guys on the back, chirping, clapping, standing up on the bench, etc. So I've been observing him a lot, same as Trotz the previous year. In the 3rd period of Game 6 Lambert looked like a deer caught in the headlights. Think Captain Queeg on the bridge during the storm in The Caine Mutiny. The situation got too big for Lambert.

 

[doublechili]

It's the remaining years on their contracts that is the problem, but most importantly...What is the point of moving a player, for the exact same type of player? Are we trying to fill holes or stay the same...?

This team is too good at treading water. The goal here needs to improve (if even possible).

They have 2 years and 3 years left, but they're both productive players that provide elements teams look for, especially for the playoffs. And when I presented the "worst case" scenario of just swapping their contract for a similar one to fill a hole, I didn't mean "the exact same type of player". Just as an example, not advocating for it as I don't know the player well enough, but COL needs a C and they need to move a LHD, rumored to be Sam Girard a skilled but smaller puck-mover. Girard has the same $5M cap hit as JGP and 1 more year of term on his contract. I don't think Sakic would hang up if he got a call on that trade. That's just an example of what I'm talking about - trade from a strength to fill a hole.

Also, it will be a relatively thin UFA crop this summer, so we likely will see more contracts being traded as teams try to fill holes.

 

[periferal]

They have 2 years and 3 years left, but they're both productive players that provide elements teams look for, especially for the playoffs. And when I presented the "worst case" scenario of just swapping their contract for a similar one to fill a hole, I didn't mean "the exact same type of player". Just as an example, not advocating for it as I don't know the player well enough, but COL needs a C and they need to move a LHD, rumored to be Sam Girard a skilled but smaller puck-mover. Girard has the same $5M cap hit as JGP and 1 more year of term on his contract. I don't think Sakic would hang up if he got a call on that trade. That's just an example of what I'm talking about - trade from a strength to fill a hole.

This is the part that makes no sense. You're talking about trading our #5 or #7 leading scorer from a bottom 10 scoring team.

It's an illusion to think that we're strong at center when we're actually very weak at forward overall.

In other words...We need to ADD scoring not trade it away.

Sorokin is what stirs the drink around here. The UFA group is terribly weak, but surely there's a true veteran defensive defenseman that can be had for relatively cheap to cover up for the mistakes that Mayfield and Romanov make. Trading one of our top scorers without a replacement will put more pressure on Sorokin to stand on his head to win 2-1 games and make this team even less average than it already is.

Look at the playoffs right now. All the difference makers (Tkachuk, Stone, Eichel, Barkov, etc) are top end players. It may be nearly impossible to find them, but that should be the goal. So if you're going to trade players Pageau/Palmieri then it better be with other assets to IMPROVE the forward group. No reason to rob Peter to pay Paul...And then just still be fighting for an 8 seed again next year.

 

[doublechili]

This is the part that makes no sense. You're talking about trading our #5 or #7 leading scorer from a bottom 10 scoring team.

It's an illusion to think that we're strong at center when we're actually very weak at forward overall.

In other words...We need to ADD scoring not trade it away.

Sorokin is what stirs the drink around here. The UFA group is terribly weak, but surely there's a true veteran defensive defenseman that can be had for relatively cheap to cover up for the mistakes that Mayfield and Romanov make. Trading one of our top scorers without a replacement will put more pressure on Sorokin to stand on his head to win 2-1 games and make this team even less average than it already is.

Look at the playoffs right now. All the difference makers (Tkachuk, Stone, Eichel, Barkov, etc) are top end players. It may be nearly impossible to find them, but that should be the goal. So if you're going to trade players Pageau/Palmieri then it better be with other assets to IMPROVE the forward group. No reason to rob Peter to pay Paul...And then just still be fighting for an 8 seed again next year.

C is a position of strength for the team. If they keep Barzal at RW, then they're still strong but maybe not dealing JGP (or at least not without a Plan B).

I really disagree about needing a defensive defenseman. The team needs a skating, puck-distributing defenseman. Preferably one who is a competent PP QB. That would help the offense as much or more than a talented winger. Burns and Montour have been difference makers for their teams, and they both were relatively cheap to acquire (Burns because he was an older guy with a "bad" contract).

 

[Doshell Propivo]

This is the part that makes no sense. You're talking about trading our #5 or #7 leading scorer from a bottom 10 scoring team.

It's an illusion to think that we're strong at center when we're actually very weak at forward overall.

In other words...We need to ADD scoring not trade it away.

Sorokin is what stirs the drink around here. The UFA group is terribly weak, but surely there's a true veteran defensive defenseman that can be had for relatively cheap to cover up for the mistakes that Mayfield and Romanov make. Trading one of our top scorers without a replacement will put more pressure on Sorokin to stand on his head to win 2-1 games and make this team even less average than it already is.

Look at the playoffs right now. All the difference makers (Tkachuk, Stone, Eichel, Barkov, etc) are top end players. It may be nearly impossible to find them, but that should be the goal. So if you're going to trade players Pageau/Palmieri then it better be with other assets to IMPROVE the forward group. No reason to rob Peter to pay Paul...And then just still be fighting for an 8 seed again next year.

Kinda like Florida...

 

[CupHolders]

That was the turning point of their season, If they lost that game they probably miss the playoffs. Instead they go on a late season run, make the playoffs and are now about to go to the SCF. Amazing. Well timed tantrum by Maurice. My issue is that fans what to see reactions like that all the time. After every mistake, every bad goal and every loss.

This exactly. It’s equivalent to fans yelling “shoot!” when a team is on the PP.

 

[periferal]

C is a position of strength for the team. If they keep Barzal at RW, then they're still strong but maybe not dealing JGP (or at least not without a Plan B).

I really disagree about needing a defensive defenseman. The team needs a skating, puck-distributing defenseman. Preferably one who is a competent PP QB. That would help the offense as much or more than a talented winger. Burns and Montour have been difference makers for their teams, and they both were relatively cheap to acquire (Burns because he was an older guy with a "bad" contract).

I actually totally agree with the bolded. Now here's the problem...

1) What "skating, puck-distributing defenseman" is available in a trade?
2) How can we fit them under the cap...?
3) ...Much less resign Varly, Mayfield, Engvall, etc?
4) And how can we afford them in a trade?

Dobson should be this player for us, but he's regressed. It's also why I think for all his flaws, Leddy is also missed because when he decided to do it he was the 2nd best player on the team in terms of entering the offensive zone.

Since I don't see how we can find that kind of player taking into account everything listed 1-4 above, adding a defensive defenseman who doesn't make the mistakes that Mayfield, Romanov, Aho, do would be a big plus. I'd rather be deeper at forward/center then watch the defense that I saw down the stretch/in the playoffs just a few weeks ago. Any move that keeps guys like Aho and Bolduc in the AHL is one I'm going to support.

And again none of this materially improves the scoring on this team or adds the kind of impact player that the successful playoff teams are benefitting from. Horvat is a nice player, but he's not on the level of a Eichel or Tkachuk.

If Lou was going to mortgage our future I'd rather he be doing it for guys like that. Take back the 3 1st rounders given up for Pageau, Palmieri, and Romanov and give them along with Beauvillier/Raty for someone elite like Eichel.

To me if you're going to go ALL IN, then f***ing go all in. Enough trading 1sts for middle 6 players.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

If Lou was going to mortgage our future

For f***s sake stop with this idiocy. He did not mortgage the future. Jesus f***ing christ.