Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[SI]

0 games against the Panthers, who we are now chasing.

It is so congested I don’t think you can label 1 team as chasing - this is a dogfight between 5 teams and 6 if Ottawa begins to rattle off a few more wins with the games they have in hand.

The Caps are the team really - 3 games against and they need to take 5 of the potential 6 points

Isles have a game in hand against Florida - in the end Fla isn’t good enough - IMO

 

[danteipp]

It would indeed have been better to trade Pulock instead if we had no choice but to trade one or the other, especially with an increasingly fast-paced league. In addition, we had a good young right-hander with Dobson to take over eventually.

On the left, there were two who played a similar role (with Leddy), but if you had in mind to trade Leddy too (which happened a year after Toews), then you had to keep Toews at all costs. We miss this type of defender terribly right now.

But it's of course easier to see after the fact, but a good, visionary GM should have been able to properly target the core of essential players to keep.

The underlying problem was always that the Isles were going to get screwed because of the expansion draft.

Being able to only really protect three defensemen, unless they went with the other protection scheme and lost a top forward instead, meant protecting Pelech, Pulock and one of Toews at $4.1 million AAV or Mayfield and his very team-friendly $1.45 million AAV.

In terms of just talent, Toews would be the call. In terms of salary cap and how Trotz viewed Mayfield (based on his usage to close out games), he was ultimately the call made.

This discussion keeps getting brought up, and this is not leveled at you xIsle, but I always ask some of the hindsight lads how they would have protected Pelech, Pulock and both Toews and Mayfield, without giving up a premium asset like a first rounder+?

Or, if the Isles protected Toews instead of Mayfield undercutting Trotz's wishes, how would they deal with his reaction and the presumed fallout from that? These are players and coaches with invested interest, energy and personal relationships, not just numbers on a spreadsheet that can be moved around without consequence.

If a HOF coach wants to keep Mayfield over Toews, can you really go against them? Especially after a couple deep playoff runs and seeing that they managed to get back again the next year without Toews?

It is an impossible situation created by the drive for more money that diluted the overall NHL product and hurt teams that had developed deep, quality teams, with little to no impact on rebuilding teams.

Compensation, in the form of draft picks, should have gone back to teams that lost say an Eberle, Dunn, Larsson, etc. vs. say a bum like Blackwell, Bayreuther, Twarynski, AHL/NHL tweener, etc. In the NFL you get draft compensation for just losing free agents. Often times for players those teams didn't even necessarily want to retain. Losing a player to expansion for nothing is worse IMHO.

 

[SI]

Well, 7. They wrap up pre-TDeadline games on FEB 28th.

Of course, Lou SHOULD know what he's doing by the FEB 25th, I'd even say after the games against PIT and BOS are complete.

But if they win four of the next five, then things look a lot different heading to the northern midwest to face WIN and MIN, and anybody who's being sold in any capacity really shouldn't be going on that trip.

Spot on.

I understand the criticism toward Lou but to know for sure what he might do is foolhardy.
In one hand, you can see Lou doing nothing because he believes in this team or believes that you reflect back to the players that you never give up.

On the other hand, he has a history of making tough decisions with personnel in a cavalier manner.

If they lose 3 of the next 4 - I think he needs to be on the phone trying to move Varlamov. If There is $ earmarked for Varly next year, then this roster shows that they need that cap space elsewhere.

Vegas and the Kings can certainly be landing spots and a 2nd rounder for Varly would certainly help stock the cupboard or give Lou another asset to peddle

 

[danteipp]

Indeed.

It's like you wrote recently with respect to getting pick 9 or 10.

But watching this team the past few games, it's sure easy to picture them going something like 11-12-3 to wrap up this season.

Will that get them into the top-12-pick land?

If the Isles end the season at pick No. 12, I fully expect them to get jumped by the team at No. 13 or 14. That is the Isles draft "luck".

Like when Carolina, who had significantly worse odds was between the Isles two picks (theirs and Calgary's via the Hamonic trade), managed to move up to grab Andrei Svechnikov.

Sure the Isles came away with Dobson and Wahlstrom, which is nice. But Svechnikov and Dobson would have been franchise altering.

 

[MJF]

This discussion keeps getting brought up, and this is not leveled at you xIsle, but I always ask some of the hindsight lads how they would have protected Pelech, Pulock and both Toews and Mayfield, without giving up a premium asset like a first rounder+?

::grumblegrumblegrumbleLEOKOMAROVgrumblegrumble::

 

[danteipp]

::grumblegrumblegrumbleLEOKOMAROVgrumblegrumble::

Lol, it is amazing that whenever I see a Toews discussion, the impact of expansion is rarely brought up.

The Isles got screwed both times because they actually developed solid players and of course the team fell right in the middle of expansion. All those years of rebuilding, with the resident clown show, and nothing.

With Vegas they lost a first and second rounder to protect the core. With Seattle upcoming in a year, they were probably going to lose one of Toews or Mayfield unless they again paid up via a side deal.

Seeing as how Francis did not make any side deals, it seems to indicate that no other team and their GM was looking to pay extortion prices again.

If not for expansion on the horizon AND Mayfield's usage/inexpensive contract, maybe they are more aggressive retaining Toews.

But it was a perfect storm of expansion AND Coivd flattening the cap, which is very hard to predict.

Now I am onboard with complaints that it has been a couple years and they still have not fully replaced the loss of Toews and Leddy.

That makes sense and is definitely a continuing cause for concern, because you need more than just a (learning on the job) Dobson and a physically-limited Aho in transition and ideally on the PP.

 

[NC 1972]

14-8-3 should do it.


The Islanders aren't selling.

The NYI's are winners of 8 of their last 22 games, during that time they've had losing streaks of 3,4,and 6 game .
The latest 3 game losing streak comes after acquiring Bo-Horvat against weak teams they should have easily beaten. I don't see them flipping that to 14/8/3 .

 

[Doshell Propivo]

The NYI's are winners of 8 of their last 22 games, during that time they've had losing streaks of 3,4,and 6 game .
The latest 3 game losing streak comes after acquiring Bo-Horvat against weak teams they should have easily beaten. I don't see them flipping that to 14/8/3 .

Also 4-1-2 in their last 7...

 

[Torrey Redux]

14-8-3 should do it.


The Islanders aren't selling.

Even if they were able to pull that off, and god only knows what makes you think they will other than willful blindness, 92 points has not made the playoffs in 10 years in the East. Maybe more, I didn't bother to look back further.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Even if they were able to pull that off, and god only knows what makes you think they will other than willful blindness, 92 points has not made the playoffs in 10 years in the East. Maybe more, I didn't bother to look back further.

I don't "think" they will. Merely pointing out what it would probably take. Most years it usually takes around 96-97 points. Last year was unusually high. This year it looks to be a little lower than average. During the shortened Covid seasons it was around 93-94 (prorated over an 82 game season).

We shall see.

 

[Torrey Redux]

I don't "think" they will. Merely pointing out what it would probably take. Most years it usually takes around 96-97 points. Last year was unusually high. This year it looks to be a little lower than average. During the shortened Covid seasons it was around 93-94 (prorated over an 82 game season).

We shall see.

Why do you think it would take that when there is no recent precedent for it? Not to mention the fact that the East is arguably as deep as it has ever been with Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit still in the conversation when they haven't been for years. You are the quintessential rose-colored glasses Islander fan and that's your prerogative, but like I've said before, it doesn't matter that you think that way but it really sucks that our GM sees things that way.

 

[Mike C]

The NYI's are winners of 8 of their last 22 games, during that time they've had losing streaks of 3,4,and 6 game .
The latest 3 game losing streak comes after acquiring Bo-Horvat against weak teams they should have easily beaten. I don't see them flipping that to 14/8/3 .

you got off the mescaline too i see....did have my fun back in the Jolly Bull days, back when we were young, the beer was cheap, the girls almost so, and the NYI were a far freaking cry from what we see today

 

[danteipp]

Why do you think it would take that when there is no recent precedent for it? Not to mention the fact that the East is arguably as deep as it has ever been with Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit still in the conversation when they haven't been for years. You are the quintessential rose-colored glasses Islander fan and that's your prerogative, but like I've said before, it doesn't matter that you think that way but it really sucks that our GM sees things that way.

I am not a "numbers" guy, but the Caps have 62 points in 57 games, which equals 1.0877 PPG. So if you just multiply that average by 82 games, it works out to 89.19 points, right?

So a little round up to the 92-94 point range seems rather safe to me. Especially since teams in the East and Metro should keep beating each other up.

I guess one team of the bunch could get hot and go on a run of course.

 

[Sparksrus3]

I think its the chick from planet of the apes in the 60s

I was going to give a clue and say a type of car . Her name was Nova on Planet of the Apes. Real name Linda Harrison
tune in next time for another exciting game of name the avatar. Your prize is a year supply of Turtle Wax

 

[mm11]

man, you fellas are all smart. LGI, btw

 

[Mike C]

View attachment 651940
I was going to give a clue and say a type of car . Her name was Nova on Planet of the Apes. Real name Linda Harrison
tune in next time for another exciting game of name the avatar. Your prize is a year supply of Turtle Wax

if i ever win, can you just send me the money the prize costs instead?

 

[Doshell Propivo]

Why do you think it would take that when there is no recent precedent for it? Not to mention the fact that the East is arguably as deep as it has ever been with Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit still in the conversation when they haven't been for years. You are the quintessential rose-colored glasses Islander fan and that's your prerogative, but like I've said before, it doesn't matter that you think that way but it really sucks that our GM sees things that way.

"Rose-colored..." give me a break. Not sure how many times I have to say that I do not believe they will make it. The odds currently say they have about a 20% chance. So while unlikely, it is not out of the realm of possibility. And as someone who enjoys watching competitive hockey, I will tune in to these games down the stretch much more than I would if we were playing for ping-pong balls. Which I gather you take comfort in.

We are currently in a playoff race. You can accept that (maybe even, gasp, enjoy the games) or bitch and moan. You do you.

And yes, there is precedent for this. A lot actually. Look at the standings of year's past when the season was approximately 70% complete (like it is now). Prorate that to an 82 game season and it is pretty accurate with how things turned out. Odds are that 92/93 points will be enough this year.

I am not a "numbers" guy, but the Caps have 62 points in 57 games, which equals 1.0877 PPG. So if you just multiply that average by 82 games, it works out to 89.19 points, right?

So a little round up to the 92-94 point range seems rather safe to me. Especially since teams in the East and Metro should keep beating each other up.

I guess one team of the bunch could get hot and go on a run of course.

Correct but DET is "on pace" to finish with 91. I do think 92-94 is a safe bet.

 

[mm11]

anyone remember the season we rode Dube to the playoffs? How many games back were we? anyway, buy buy buy, midway through 2nd period, sell sell sell sell

 

[Torrey Redux]

"Rose-colored..." give me a break. Not sure how many times I have to say that I do not believe they will make it. The odds currently say they have about a 20% chance. So while unlikely, it is not out of the realm of possibility. And as someone who enjoys watching competitive hockey, I will tune in to these games down the stretch much more than I would if we were playing for ping-pong balls. Which I gather you take comfort in.

We are currently in a playoff race. You can accept that (maybe even, gasp, enjoy the games) or bitch and moan. You do you.

And yes, there is precedent for this. A lot actually. Look at the standings of year's past when the season was approximately 70% complete (like it is now). Prorate that to an 82 game season and it is pretty accurate with how things turned out. Odds are that 92/93 points will be enough this year.

You keep swinging and missing but you do keep swinging. I mean, talk about convoluted. Your little 7 game snapshots and points extrapolations. Yeesh. The problem with your approach is that for those small odds to just make the playoffs much less do anything against Boston or Carolina should they get there, the Islanders will have to keep the players they've got and probably go out and get another therefore recouping no trade capital and burning up even more of the draft capital that they don't have which will further insure that they will be a bottom 16 team as far as the eye can see. The piper will be paid.

 

[Sparksrus3]

if i ever win, can you just send me the money the prize costs instead?

If you pay the applicable taxes and fees first .

 

[Doshell Propivo]

You keep swinging and missing but you do keep swinging. I mean, talk about convoluted. Your little 7 game snapshots and points extrapolations. Yeesh. The problem with your approach is that for those small odds to just make the playoffs much less do anything against Boston or Carolina should they get there, the Islanders will have to keep the players they've got and probably go out and get another therefore recouping no trade capital and burning up even more of the draft capital that they don't have which will further insure that they will be a bottom 16 team as far as the eye can see. The piper will be paid.

Okay.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Not sure how many times I have to say that I do not believe they will make it.

People read what they want you to be saying, not what you actually are saying.

 

[Torrey Redux]

People read what they want you to be saying, not what you actually are saying.

I read exactly what he said and then right after he says it he goes on to tell you all the reasons that he doesn't really believe what he said.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

man, you fellas are all smart. LGI, btw

I read exactly what he said and then right after he says it he goes on to tell you all the reasons that he doesn't really believe what he said.

Okay.

 

[Mike C]

I read exactly what he said and then right after he says it he goes on to tell you all the reasons that he doesn't really believe what he said.

So then what you're really saying is that my wife is out here masquerading as a hockey fan