Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[IslesNorway]

At the same time though, Mayfield’s future with us if there is one would be in a bottom pairing role. We have Pelech, Pulock, Romanov, and Dobson all locked up for the next few years. I really don’t see Mayfield beating out any of those four for more minutes. Maybe he could be on the level of Pulock or Romanov, but those two already have contracts signed. Mayfield is really the odd man out right now and it doesn’t make sense to give him $5 million+ per year long term when we can fill out the bottom pairing somewhat easily either through internal options or low cost free agents.

Agrre. And how will we let our prospects get a chance when the whole D is signed forever? I like Mayfield but we simply cannot stick with the same D for the next 5-7 years! We can't. Pelech and Pulock are going nowhere, Dobson and Romanov are here for the long term, so signing a bottom pairing guy for 6 years is stupid. All the Dmen the Isles are drafting in the next 4-5 years are basically without a shot at making it in the organization because they'll be lost in numbers game behind untradeable contracts.

Start the turnover now by trading Mayfield, Varly and Parise, and then move Bailey, Beau, Martin and Clutterbuck in the offseason even if they have to pay to get rid.

 

[gordie43]

Agrre. And how will we let our prospects get a chance when the whole D is signed forever? I like Mayfield but we simply cannot stick with the same D for the next 5-7 years! We can't. Pelech and Pulock are going nowhere, Dobson and Romanov are here for the long term, so signing a bottom pairing guy for 6 years is stupid. All the Dmen the Isles are drafting in the next 4-5 years are basically without a shot at making it in the organization because they'll be lost in numbers game behind untradeable contracts.

Start the turnover now by trading Mayfield, Varly and Parise, and then move Bailey, Beau, Martin and Clutterbuck in the offseason even if they have to pay to get rid.

Mayfield plays an important role on this team, but if they are out of the race by the deadline and Lou can get a good return, he’s gotta be delt.

No need to rush, team still has a slim shot.

 

[MJF]

Mayfield is a big reason why we have a top 5 PK. Replacing him internally with Bolduc and Aho reminds me of replacing Streit with Matt Donovan

Bolduc may be a capable PKer one day soon, but I’m not ready to part with Mayfield yet because of a few good games from Bolduc.

 

[CupHolders]

Agrre. And how will we let our prospects get a chance when the whole D is signed forever? I like Mayfield but we simply cannot stick with the same D for the next 5-7 years! We can't. Pelech and Pulock are going nowhere, Dobson and Romanov are here for the long term, so signing a bottom pairing guy for 6 years is stupid. All the Dmen the Isles are drafting in the next 4-5 years are basically without a shot at making it in the organization because they'll be lost in numbers game behind untradeable contracts.

Start the turnover now by trading Mayfield, Varly and Parise, and then move Bailey, Beau, Martin and Clutterbuck in the offseason even if they have to pay to get rid.

Do you mean in asset? Because if so, I don’t understand this sentiment. Every single one of those players only has a year left.

It’s still more feasible to buyout Bailey and LTIR Clutterbuck and Martin. Even if they are too healthy (unlikely) to qualify for LTIR you can paper transaction them to Bridgeport at a cap hit of around 350K.

Any replacement for those three (Raty, Holmstrom etc) are only going to be around 1M cap hit each.

 

[IslesNorway]

Do you mean in asset? Because if so, I don’t understand this sentiment. Every single one of those players only has a year left.

It’s still more feasible to buyout Bailey and LTIR Clutterbuck and Martin. Even if they are too healthy (unlikely) to qualify for LTIR you can paper transaction them to Bridgeport at a cap hit of around 350K.

Any replacement for those three (Raty, Holmstrom etc) are only going to be around 1M cap hit each.

The point is that those players are ripe for being moved out. And the Isles need to replenish the roster. They will suck for a season or two but in the long run, ut must be done.

 

[CupHolders]

The point is that those players are ripe for being moved out. And the Isles need to replenish the roster. They will suck for a season or two but in the long run, ut must be done.

Yes I understand your motivation. But I’m suggesting that paying to move them is unnecessary. I even gave viable options of how to move them out without surrendering anything… Buyout Bailey, demote Clutterbuck and Martin if they pass their physicals.

Now I’m not suggesting Lou would be willing to do any of the above. But if we are looking at it from the perspective of what would we do if given the opportunity… then I don’t understand having to pay to free up roster spots.

Additionally, I’m responding to your post specifically. But I am mostly addressing this in general because it has been suggested rather often by several posters recently. That is, paying assets to get rid of these players.

I can understand somewhat for Bailey, but not anyone else suggested.

 

[Mike C]

Yes I understand your motivation. But I’m suggesting that paying to move them is unnecessary. I even gave viable options of how to move them out without surrendering anything… Buyout Bailey, demote Clutterbuck and Martin if they pass their physicals.

Now I’m not suggesting Lou would be willing to do any of the above. But if we are looking at it from the perspective of what would we do if given the opportunity… then I don’t understand having to pay to free up roster spots.

Additionally, I’m responding to your post specifically. But I am mostly addressing this in general because it has been suggested rather often by several posters recently. That is, paying assets to get rid of these players.

I can understand somewhat for Bailey, but not anyone else suggested.

To your point, if this team was one player away from a chance at a Cup final, then maybe....but to pay someone to take our garbage at a 50/50 chance at an 8th seed is senseless to me

 

[Mike C]

Bolduc may be a capable PKer one day soon, but I’m not ready to part with Mayfield yet because of a few good games from Bolduc.

Agreed. Especially since although I like Romanov more than I don't, I see enough issues with his game where the loss of Mayfield would weaken our overall D to the point of great concern

 

[SI]

That line of thinking is exactly what got us into this mire in the first place. If they sign Mayfield to a long term deal, then basically all spots on D are taken for years to come, except maybe Aho's spot. The thing with rosters is that they go stale over time, and that is where the Isles are right now. Lots of players have been on this team for a decade or more, and will be up to 15 or more by the time their deals run out.

If the Islanders are serious about going forward then they have to have a dynamic roster and Mayfield should go,.

That isn’t what you asked?

You asked what a contract would look like - I mentioned Manson . And for context it is important to see how Lou has behaved with other players like Mayfield. Going longer term for less $ is something he has done before.

Whether I agree with it or not is irrelevant. And yet I do not agree about rosters going stale- I do agree that Mayfield should be moved for the best package at TDL.

 

[danteipp]

If the Islanders are out of it by the deadline, as much as I like Mayfield and Varly, if you can get a first rounder or a very good prospect and a second, they need to be moved. No question.

That is how you retool the forward corps. Move those two, add some quality assets that can be used later and devote cap space and skill to the forwards/wings.

If the Isles want to try and sign them back in free agency, no problem. If the player feels slighted at being traded, oh well.

Again, assuming the Isles are out of it, the opportunity to have their pick in the lottery plus two other firsts cannot be passed up.

They could then make one pick to add to the pipeline, if they really like a player on the board, and trade the other two in a package for a youngish, winger with term or willing to ink an extension.

Sure they would need to find a backup goalie and a RHD3, but those are small problems that can be managed.

 

[LeapOnOver]

If Lou gives Mayfield 4M + for 6 years that brings him to retirement in a season where we don’t make the playoffs, have no prospect pool to speak of, cannot score goals, and have 2 top4 RHD until team control for the foreseeable future he should be fired on the spot.

Chiarot got a first plus. Savard got a first plus. This should be one of the easiest decisions in recent history

Nobody in management thinks we aren't making the playoffs. Not saying you are wrong, but nobody in management is considering 25% of your listed reasons.

 

[LeapOnOver]

At the same time though, Mayfield’s future with us if there is one would be in a bottom pairing role. We have Pelech, Pulock, Romanov, and Dobson all locked up for the next few years. I really don’t see Mayfield beating out any of those four for more minutes. Maybe he could be on the level of Pulock or Romanov, but those two already have contracts signed. Mayfield is really the odd man out right now and it doesn’t make sense to give him $5 million+ per year long term when we can fill out the bottom pairing somewhat easily either through internal options or low cost free agents.

If history has taught us anything, you aren't going to have 6 healthy d-men all season. Mayfield has been a top 4 guy for the majority of this season due to injuries. Personally, I'm fine keeping or trading Mayfield either way, but I still feel his value to the Islanders is more than what we'll get in a trade.

If he takes a little discount, even more so. I think another thing history has taught us is that Lou is willing to pay long term short money for loyalty and deal with the shit end of the contract when it comes. That's why players are more willing to find a way to exit rather than linger (Komarov). Still think that's why he jettisoned Toews, didn't get a feeling Toews was going to be a guy that played along with that because maybe he didn't have the "this team is special" feeling and was just another player looking to win. He signed reasonably in Colorado, and powerhouse team. So...it's all conjecture on my end admittedly, but I still feel like tons of this is going to hinge on behind the scenes attitude of Mayfield that we aren't privy to.

 

[SI]

Do you mean in asset? Because if so, I don’t understand this sentiment. Every single one of those players only has a year left.

It’s still more feasible to buyout Bailey and LTIR Clutterbuck and Martin. Even if they are too healthy (unlikely) to qualify for LTIR you can paper transaction them to Bridgeport at a cap hit of around 350K.

Any replacement for those three (Raty, Holmstrom etc) are only going to be around 1M cap hit each.

Its far more simple to let Cal, Martin, and Beau play out their contracts giving Dufour, Raty, Holmstrom more time to take those spots - maybe Holmstrom takes over in a top 9 role next year.

It should definitely be a priority to move out Bailey.

I really think you are overblowing this D group being together for the long haul. My preference is that they move Mayfield but if they resign him I won’t be mad about it.

Bolduc is the closest to securing a spot and the next player Odelius - if he pans out - is still what 3 years away.

And this is hockey injuries happen.

 

[BelovedIsles]

I'm hard pressed reflecting on how this organization is going to acquire elite talent. There's no cap space to add 9+ mil., especially with Sorokin's next contract. Yeah, they could move Beau, Bailey, and perhaps Palms/others, but that will be challenging. They don't have the assets. If they stay the course, they'll have a middle of the pack draft pick. I'm starting to think if there was a year to 'take a big step back,' this may be it with Bedard. They could strike gold with a late-round gem, but I'm not sure I have confidence in the scouting dept. for that, and those are rare and take years to be impactful. It's in this franchises best interests, truth be told, to lose down the stretch, with a little luck mixed in.

 

[SI]

I'm hard pressed reflecting on how this organization is going to acquire elite talent. There's no cap space to add 9+ mil., especially with Sorokin's next contract. Yeah, they could move Beau, Bailey, and perhaps Palms/others, but that will be challenging. They don't have the assets. If they stay the course, they'll have a middle of the pack draft pick. I'm starting to think if there was a year to 'take a big step back,' this may be it with Bedard. They could strike gold with a late-round gem, but I'm not sure I have confidence in the scouting dept. for that, and those are rare and take years to be impactful. It's in this franchises best interests, truth be told, to lose down the stretch, with a little luck mixed in.

Let me help you - Sorokin is due a new contract 2024-2025
Bailey, Beau, Martin, And Cal contracts will be expired as well as Varlamov a season before. Also, capfriendly has a projection of 87.5m as the cap. This figure is from the prediction the $ owed by the players will be paid off by then.

Isles can acquire a top 3 talent in trading for one of Meier or DeBrincat AND sign Sorokin

 

[seafoam]

If Mayfield won’t re-sign by the deadline, one option would be to trade Mayfield to the highest bidder and then acquire Zaitsev, whom Ottawa is looking to pay a high pick to get rid of…

Mayfield -> out
1st, 2nd, and Zaitsev -> in

Or Bailey for Zaitsev this offseason.

 

[NC 1972]

Agree so do you move him if we are out which is likely. Can we get rid of Beau by leveraging that? Obviously Lou has Kicked the tires on Chychrun. Is there a replacement out there?

How about Mayfield for Shane Wright?

 

[xECK29x]

If Mayfield won’t re-sign by the deadline, one option would be to trade Mayfield to the highest bidder and then acquire Zaitsev, whom Ottawa is looking to pay a high pick to get rid of…

Mayfield -> out
1st, 2nd, and Zaitsev -> in

Or Bailey for Zaitsev this offseason.

I would take on that contract with high picks attached.

 

[The Real JT]

I'm hard pressed reflecting on how this organization is going to acquire elite talent. There's no cap space to add 9+ mil., especially with Sorokin's next contract. Yeah, they could move Beau, Bailey, and perhaps Palms/others, but that will be challenging. They don't have the assets. If they stay the course, they'll have a middle of the pack draft pick. I'm starting to think if there was a year to 'take a big step back,' this may be it with Bedard. They could strike gold with a late-round gem, but I'm not sure I have confidence in the scouting dept. for that, and those are rare and take years to be impactful. It's in this franchises best interests, truth be told, to lose down the stretch, with a little luck mixed in.

Such a depressing but realistic take.

That won’t be tolerated here.

 

[xECK29x]

Friedman just casually tossing us into the Horvat rumors on today's pod.

 

[Mike C]

I'm hard pressed reflecting on how this organization is going to acquire elite talent. There's no cap space to add 9+ mil., especially with Sorokin's next contract. Yeah, they could move Beau, Bailey, and perhaps Palms/others, but that will be challenging. They don't have the assets. If they stay the course, they'll have a middle of the pack draft pick. I'm starting to think if there was a year to 'take a big step back,' this may be it with Bedard. They could strike gold with a late-round gem, but I'm not sure I have confidence in the scouting dept. for that, and those are rare and take years to be impactful. It's in this franchises best interests, truth be told, to lose down the stretch, with a little luck mixed in.

that would have to entail bringing up and playing more AHL players. professional athletes will never try and lose on purpose (unless they are fixing games) . plus there is no guarantee they would even get Bedard.

the team is close enough to 7th/8th right now that i don't see a selloff happening. Lou went all in on this season and with 2 wins before the break, the Pens and Caps being very beatable and 5 winnable games right back out of the box, I envision Lou not selling, and possibly trading furures for now

 

[duster19]

If the Islanders are out of it by the deadline, as much as I like Mayfield and Varly, if you can get a first rounder or a very good prospect and a second, they need to be moved. No question.

That is how you retool the forward corps. Move those two, add some quality assets that can be used later and devote cap space and skill to the forwards/wings.

If the Isles want to try and sign them back in free agency, no problem. If the player feels slighted at being traded, oh well.

Again, assuming the Isles are out of it, the opportunity to have their pick in the lottery plus two other firsts cannot be passed up.

They could then make one pick to add to the pipeline, if they really like a player on the board, and trade the other two in a package for a youngish, winger with term or willing to ink an extension.

Sure they would need to find a backup goalie and a RHD3, but those are small problems that can be managed.

If they can grab a second for Varly it might be enough to get rid of Bailey. Opens up some $$ to go after a scoring winger in free agency. Looks like there may be a couple available in the off-season.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Lambert interviewed 2 (or was it 3) times for head coaching jobs before Lou hired him. I don't know if he doesn't interview well or if the other teams already had someone else in mind, but after being a bridesmaid twice I can't say it was any foregone conclusion that Lambert was going to be so sought after.

Indeed, I should have written that he was simply on the radar as a candidate for a head coaching position.

Dunno what exactly others in the business held of him and his possibilities as such.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

At the same time though, Mayfield’s future with us if there is one would be in a bottom pairing role. We have Pelech, Pulock, Romanov, and Dobson all locked up for the next few years. I really don’t see Mayfield beating out any of those four for more minutes. Maybe he could be on the level of Pulock or Romanov, but those two already have contracts signed. Mayfield is really the odd man out right now and it doesn’t make sense to give him $5 million+ per year long term when we can fill out the bottom pairing somewhat easily either through internal options or low cost free agents.

Bottom pairing in terms of looking at the depth chart in pregame but he plays just as any minutes as Pelech. I don't think we have internal options ready and I think low cost free agents are a gamble. He'd be getting a lot of money for a reason and there's a reason guys are low cost free agents. They aren't as good as him. Of course, we could get lucky.

But 5 Million on a long term deal is something I'm not sure I want to do either. So I'm not disagreeing, really comes down to the contract.

Bolduc may be a capable PKer one day soon, but I’m not ready to part with Mayfield yet because of a few good games from Bolduc.

Potentially sure. But I don't see Bolduc as a replacement for Mayfield, just hopefully another strong defender.

Its far more simple to let Cal, Martin, and Beau play out their contracts giving Dufour, Raty, Holmstrom more time to take those spots - maybe Holmstrom takes over in a top 9 role next year.

It should definitely be a priority to move out Bailey.

I really think you are overblowing this D group being together for the long haul. My preference is that they move Mayfield but if they resign him I won’t be mad about it.

Bolduc is the closest to securing a spot and the next player Odelius - if he pans out - is still what 3 years away.

And this is hockey injuries happen.

Agreed with all of this. Also, I think Bails gets bought out.

 

[The Real JT]

Bottom pairing in terms of looking at the depth chart in pregame but he plays just as any minutes as Pelech. I don't think we have internal options ready and I think low cost free agents are a gamble. He'd be getting a lot of money for a reason and there's a reason guys are low cost free agents. They aren't as good as him. Of course, we could get lucky.

But 5 Million on a long term deal is something I'm not sure I want to do either. So I'm not disagreeing, really comes down to the contract.

Potentially sure. But I don't see Bolduc as a replacement for Mayfield, just hopefully another strong defender.

Agreed with all of this. Also, I think Bails gets bought out.

Re: Mayfield I completely agree. It comes down to the contract.

His position even as a #3RHD is not easily replaceable. We’re far worse without him. So why trade him? The answer is because we’re not serious Cup contenders in the next 1-2 years even with him. We need to take one step back to move 2 steps forward.

I’d be ok with a hometown discount deal but for a guy that hasn’t cashed in yet why should he do it? I’d also be ok with him being traded for a good haul. I’m less enthusiastic about a Cizikas like deal. On a final note, I’d hate signing him for 4+ years at somewhere near $5M/year.