Oh. I understand your point now. My apologies. I didn't realize that the disconnect was you don't feel that xGF metrics were inaccurate. I thought you were implying they are just merely not predictive.
I actually agree with you. I don't think they are accurate in the sense that a team at 55% is better than a 53%. However, I do think it's fairly accurate in giving you an idea of which teams are actually good 5 on 5. I do believe it does a fairly good but imperfect job at telling us which teams are good 5v5 independent of goaltending. The quote above also talks about overall goal differential, which is also a good statistic to look at. However, that takes into account goaltending and special teams.
The great thing about hockey, is that it's random in a good way once the playoffs come. Two seasons ago, The Isles had no business beating the Penguins and Bruins. They got badly outplayed. However, they had far superior goaltending during that series and won. Then they actually played a very good series against the lightning and were a goal away from winning the cup (they were beating the Canadiens if they got past TB).
You're using the very stat I'm discrediting to make the assertion.
Let me use a made up dump-ins stat as an example:
1) Dump-ins say that the Islanders were outplayed badly.
2) Dump-ins have been shown to be ineffective at predicting outcomes of games or series.
3) Dump-ins were wrong at predicting the Penguins or Bruins series.
You're now saying the Islanders were badly outplayed because the Dump-ins stat says so, even though we know it can't predict winners and losers, and it incorrectly predicted the outcomes of the very series you're commenting on. It becomes meaningless at this point.
What is the significance of "badly outplayed" if it doesn't translate to wins or losses? There isn't much.
What drives me insane about the Isles, is the ignorance they have towards such data. There aren't many teams with an elite goaltender making 4 mil a season. During their two long playoff runs from 2019-2021, they had an xGF of 51% and an actual GF% of 52%. They were legitimately good. Unfortunately, Lou decided they were too good and refused to make obvious improvements. He dealt for and signed players that were decent, but not what the Isles actually needed. I understand that posters love Pageau and Palmieri. I actually like them too. However, in a tight cap world we lost Eberle and Toews in order to keep those two players. That's a huge downgrade. Since the 2021 season we have an xGF% of 48% with an actual GF% of 52%. The difference there is goaltending. If you break down the numbers further, you come away learning that Sorokin is an elite goaltender. In the last two seasons, Sorokin has a .934 even strength save percentage (1st in the league). In that same time frame he has an .868 High danger save percentage. That's 4th. Only Shesterkin, Husso, and Knight have hight High danger save percentage than Sorokin. Of the 4 only, Shesterkin and Sorokin have at least 80 gp during that timespan. Long story to say, Sorokin is damn good and you don't need stats to tell you that.
I think there's a little bit of revisionist history happening here in regards to Eberle and Toews, but I'm not interested in going down that rabbit hole again. What I will comment on is the bolded.
Why are we looking at these stats across multiple seasons? They're different teams playing against different competition. It's falling into the "unsustainable" argument that always "wins" because teams that have success always have a drop off after multiple seasons. If it takes three years for a team to fall off because they're "unsustainable" then it's a meaningless statistic as well and there's no way to disprove people who believe it's meaningful because it's an inevitability that teams will ebb and flow over time.
It'd be as if I'm thumping my chest over successfully predicting that an airplane will eventually have to land, but giving no timeframe for when that will actually happen.
However, why have the Islanders ignored that we have been so heavily dependent on goaltending the last two seasons? Or do you disagree with that statement. Furthermore, is it justifiable? Sorokin is part of the team, sure. However, by ignoring that the 4th line is a black hole and guys like Bailey are unfortunately no longer useful NHL pieces, the Isles have fallen behind significantly behind real cup contenders. Whatever stats you want to use is fine, but they all point to the Isles being mediocre and ignoring possession stats. It's evident in their trades/signings and their on ice play. I believe xGF% is a fairly accurate representation of how a team controls play 5v5. I understand that you don't.
That's not quite right. I do think it more likely represents that, but I don't think whoever is controlling play is necessarily the better team. During the Trotz era the Islanders routinely let other teams control the puck on the perimeter of their zone. That was by design so I have a hard time suggesting they're bad because they're implementing a strategy that is in direct opposition to the stat you're using to measure quality of play.
This will be overly simplistic and dumb but it should get my point across. It'd be like using a stat based around passing in the NFL to determine who played better, but a few teams just never threw the ball and people use that passing stat to say they're bad teams, even if they're winning. They're not bad teams, they're using a different strategy than other teams so the passing stat becomes less useful.
I had mentioned before that these stats are all assuming teams are trying to play in a similar manner and that's a big flaw with them.
As for whether or not I disagree with the Islanders relying on goaltending, no I do not disagree with that. I think that goaltending is something management and the coaching staff are aware of being good, so they're attempting to construct the roster and system to use it to the maximum potential. I disagree that they're ignoring that the fourth line is struggling or Bailey's decline, I actually think they're trying to find ways to mitigate it. That's why Lambert is opening up the offense and relying on the great goaltending, because if you have great goaltending you can afford to take more chances.
Where I'm unsure is, do you believe this team is good? And are you as angry as I am with how poorly Lou has constructed the roster and managed the cap? Are you angry that he's wasting a superstar goaltender on a 4 million contract for only one more season? I'm furious.
I've said for the past two seasons (before they started) that this team is a bubble playoff team. Last season they were really derailed by COVID bullshit and it's really hard for me to fault Lamoriello for the failure of that season when they were just handed a bunch of losses by the NHL forcing them to play with an AHL roster while everyone else got a reprieve.
I don't think he's managed the cap poorly, I think the cap constraints around the league had a much greater impact on his ability to make moves than anything he's done directly. Where are the bad contracts? I don't think there are too many individual contracts that were bad the moment they were signed. Lee and Pulock maybe, but that's pretty much it to me. There's just too much redundancy and he hasn't been able to move Bailey or Beauvillier for an upgrade. He managed to get rid of Eberle but immediately replaced him with Palmieri, which hasn't worked out as intended and he deserves some criticism there but I thought Palmieri would've worked better too (especially after he started to gel in the playoffs).
I'm annoyed or frustrated that Lamoriello didn't do more than Romanov this summer. Even with chalking up last year as nothing he could do scenario, the elephant in the room is that the Islanders need more talent up front to win the cup. This was the third off-season he didn't bring anyone of substance in and I would've sold more of the farm or picks to bring in the talent for more of a run if I were him and believed this team could win the cup.
He should've started to replace the fourth line sooner too, finding cheaper/faster guys. I have criticisms, but it's generally more about what he hasn't done and less about how they've approached playing on the ice (until this season at least, I prefer lock down defense but I understand it's a personal preference).
