Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

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WangMustGo

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The odds of getting Bedard are slim to none.

They are very slim, but I dont think this team is a single player away from making a run. If they dont string together a long winning streak I think Lou should sell Mayfield/Varly/Parise and any other older soon to be UFAs. Clear some capspace, acquire draft capital, and get younger. This draft is very deep, a mid first round pick will have a good chance of being a good player.

This team desperately needs young, fast, skilled players that under cost controlled to step in.
 

PK Cronin

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Beane hasn't won much of anything and was a phenomenon by getting a couple of mediocre teams into the playoff.

Thanks to him we have releivers opening games, starters going 3-4 innings and geeks calling the dugout telling managers how the hitter does vs the pitcher when the sun is high but not too high but only the 3rd time facing him

JUST PLAY THE DAMN GAME EH??

I agree with you, but I understand what they're doing because those things are measurable so they're trying to maximize the chances of winning. Do I think it's actually hurt the product when it comes to baseball? Absolutely. I think they're using a Blackjack mentality of probability to approach the game, and if expect the probable outcome in sports all of the time you're going to be really disappointed. The reason playing percentages works in Blackjack is because over a long enough timeline it should benefit you (though there are no guarantees obviously), sports has a definitive end and that changes things a lot.

I'm of the belief that there's a cyclical nature to sports and/or a copycat syndrome that happens. I think most people believe it too. I do think that people are too impatient and won't let change happen organically. One team had success playing the trap, now everyone plays the trap. A few years later a team had success with a high powered run and gun offense, now everyone is trying the high powered offense. If a team wins playing stifling defense you'll see teams adopt that strategy again. Certain strategies work better against certain systems or player too, and I think people forget that when looking at spreadsheets too much.
 
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NC 1972

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Ah, the ol' "let's sell cuz we're not winning the cup anyway" post...
It’s more like giving the team more of an opportunity to win a cup actually, currently constructed this team isn’t winning the cup. The players people want out of here are difficult to move either do to having no value or there contracts or both. By trading the two previously mentioned you open cap space for a creative deal and possibly acquire younger faster talent. Just spitballin here, possibility's it’s not a all out rebuild but an on the fly transformation. To stand fast would be to ensure another year of mediocrity.
 

WangMustGo

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It’s more like giving the team more of an opportunity to win a cup actually, currently constructed this team isn’t winning the cup. The players people want out of here are difficult to move either do to having no value or there contracts or both. By trading the two previously mentioned you open cap space for a creative deal and possibly acquire younger faster talent. Just spitballin here, possibility's it’s not a all out rebuild but an on the fly transformation. To stand fast would be to ensure another year of mediocrity.

The more we lose the more i am onboard with this. We arent a player away, we are likely a couple of star players and a couple of good players away.

I hate the idea of a full rebuild, they rarely work, and take a decade to complete if they do work. Build around Barzal, Sorokin, Dobson, and Pelech.

Move Mayfield, Varly, and Parise at the draft. Mayfield will easily net us a late 1st, Varly and Parise a couple of mid round picks each. That would go a long way towards building the farm system and the health of the organization.
 
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seafoam

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The odds of us winning anything with Chychrun and the same forward corps is also slim to none.

Keep the pick. Forget Chychrun.
I'm just assuming the pick will be moved because it has been consistently moved.
 

IslesNorway

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They are very slim, but I dont think this team is a single player away from making a run. If they dont string together a long winning streak I think Lou should sell Mayfield/Varly/Parise and any other older soon to be UFAs. Clear some capspace, acquire draft capital, and get younger. This draft is very deep, a mid first round pick will have a good chance of being a good player.

This team desperately needs young, fast, skilled players that under cost controlled to step in.
This.

The Isles are a bubble team at best. They need more than one player to compete. Also, the cap situation is not good and they need to get younger fast. Fix it starting with the draft.
 

The Real JT

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Someone’s gotta say it. Did we miss the boat on Sonny Milano?

Long Island kid could’ve been signed on the cheap for a team that has a glaring deficit of offensively skilled players. Sure he’s soft defensively but haven’t we had enough of the plodding unproductive veteran forwards on this squad?

Milano stats this year:
29 games: 7 goals 12 assists +3

That point total would be tied for 6th on the Isles and on a point per game basis he’d rank even higher.

He won’t be making an all star team any time soon but beggars can’t be choosers.
 
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xECK29x

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Someone’s gotta say it. Did we miss the boat on Sonny Milano?

Long Island kid could’ve been signed on the cheap for a team that has a glaring deficit of offensively skilled players. Sure he’s soft defensively but haven’t we had enough of the plodding unproductive veteran forwards on this squad?

Milano stats this year:
29 games: 7 goals 12 assists +3

That point total would be tied for 6th on the Isles and on a point per game basis he’d rank even higher.

He won’t be making an all star team any time soon but beggars can’t be choosers.
yes, always been a fan
 

Lights911

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Dec 5, 2017
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Someone’s gotta say it. Did we miss the boat on Sonny Milano?

Long Island kid could’ve been signed on the cheap for a team that has a glaring deficit of offensively skilled players. Sure he’s soft defensively but haven’t we had enough of the plodding unproductive veteran forwards on this squad?

Milano stats this year:
29 games: 7 goals 12 assists +3

That point total would be tied for 6th on the Isles and on a point per game basis he’d rank even higher.

He won’t be making an all star team any time soon but beggars can’t be choosers.
We completely missed on that. All we needed to do was offer him a PTO. Again, our GM was asleep at the wheel.
 
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YearlyLottery

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We completely missed on that. All we needed to do was offer him a PTO. Again, our GM was asleep at the wheel.

Lou has missed the boat big time on acquiring an impact forward since not getting Stone. Then it was Panarin, then DeBrincat, and then Gaudreau.

I have no problem with him missing out on these guys but I do fault him for never stepping up to acquire a top flight forward for Trotz. Lou will need to hit on a current forward prospect or future one as a stud in order for the team not have to enter a rebuild at some point.
 

Kevin27NYI

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Aug 5, 2009
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Someone’s gotta say it. Did we miss the boat on Sonny Milano?

Long Island kid could’ve been signed on the cheap for a team that has a glaring deficit of offensively skilled players. Sure he’s soft defensively but haven’t we had enough of the plodding unproductive veteran forwards on this squad?

Milano stats this year:
29 games: 7 goals 12 assists +3

That point total would be tied for 6th on the Isles and on a point per game basis he’d rank even higher.

He won’t be making an all star team any time soon but beggars can’t be choosers.
I hate copy and pasting a players stats on one team to another, doesn’t work that way. For all we know he’d be 21 games 2 goals and 6 assists here.

As far as the player himself, with everyone healthy I don’t see a spot for him. Same with Rodriguez who was another cheap signing.

I don’t hate how this year has turned out with injuries where we can see development of some guys and future opportunities with others like Fasching (taste of NHL makes them want it more) but depth signings weren’t going to change this team, it’s top end talent.
 

The Real JT

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I hate copy and pasting a players stats on one team to another, doesn’t work that way. For all we know he’d be 21 games 2 goals and 6 assists here.

As far as the player himself, with everyone healthy I don’t see a spot for him. Same with Rodriguez who was another cheap signing.

I don’t hate how this year has turned out with injuries where we can see development of some guys and future opportunities with others like Fasching (taste of NHL makes them want it more) but depth signings weren’t going to change this team, it’s top end talent.
You make a fair point and I won’t dispute it.

At the same time I think you should keep an open mind on the subject. Nearly all of us here, present company included, make judgments on players, coaches and GMs that we have difficulty amending over time even when the circumstances suggest our initial take was off.
 
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JPIsles18

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Jul 12, 2022
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No, that's not the gist of the argument because that'd indicate that I agree that the stats you referenced are accurate for measuring teams being "outplayed.". Here, I used that cool new Chat GPT thing everyone is talking about to help you out:

"The post discusses the unpredictability of the playoffs in hockey and the ineffectiveness of certain advanced statistics, such as xGF% and xGA%, in predicting the outcomes of playoff games. The author cites several examples of teams with high rankings in these statistics losing in the playoffs and argues that more traditional statistics, such as goal differential, are just as effective at predicting playoff success. The author also disputes the idea that they have a bias in favor of a particular team and cites their accurate prediction of that team's performance as evidence."

Again, if the stats are so useful then why are they wrong so much? If they are wrong so frequently, why are they useful?
Oh. I understand your point now. My apologies. I didn't realize that the disconnect was you don't feel that xGF metrics were inaccurate. I thought you were implying they are just merely not predictive.

I actually agree with you. I don't think they are accurate in the sense that a team at 55% is better than a 53%. However, I do think it's fairly accurate in giving you an idea of which teams are actually good 5 on 5. I do believe it does a fairly good but imperfect job at telling us which teams are good 5v5 independent of goaltending. The quote above also talks about overall goal differential, which is also a good statistic to look at. However, that takes into account goaltending and special teams.

The great thing about hockey, is that it's random in a good way once the playoffs come. Two seasons ago, The Isles had no business beating the Penguins and Bruins. They got badly outplayed. However, they had far superior goaltending during that series and won. Then they actually played a very good series against the lightning and were a goal away from winning the cup (they were beating the Canadiens if they got past TB).

What drives me insane about the Isles, is the ignorance they have towards such data. There aren't many teams with an elite goaltender making 4 mil a season. During their two long playoff runs from 2019-2021, they had an xGF of 51% and an actual GF% of 52%. They were legitimately good. Unfortunately, Lou decided they were too good and refused to make obvious improvements. He dealt for and signed players that were decent, but not what the Isles actually needed. I understand that posters love Pageau and Palmieri. I actually like them too. However, in a tight cap world we lost Eberle and Toews in order to keep those two players. That's a huge downgrade. Since the 2021 season we have an xGF% of 48% with an actual GF% of 52%. The difference there is goaltending. If you break down the numbers further, you come away learning that Sorokin is an elite goaltender. In the last two seasons, Sorokin has a .934 even strength save percentage (1st in the league). In that same time frame he has an .868 High danger save percentage. That's 4th. Only Shesterkin, Husso, and Knight have hight High danger save percentage than Sorokin. Of the 4 only, Shesterkin and Sorokin have at least 80 gp during that timespan. Long story to say, Sorokin is damn good and you don't need stats to tell you that.

However, why have the Islanders ignored that we have been so heavily dependent on goaltending the last two seasons? Or do you disagree with that statement. Furthermore, is it justifiable? Sorokin is part of the team, sure. However, by ignoring that the 4th line is a black hole and guys like Bailey are unfortunately no longer useful NHL pieces, the Isles have fallen behind significantly behind real cup contenders. Whatever stats you want to use is fine, but they all point to the Isles being mediocre and ignoring possession stats. It's evident in their trades/signings and their on ice play. I believe xGF% is a fairly accurate representation of how a team controls play 5v5. I understand that you don't.

Where I'm unsure is, do you believe this team is good? And are you as angry as I am with how poorly Lou has constructed the roster and managed the cap? Are you angry that he's wasting a superstar goaltender on a 4 million contract for only one more season? I'm furious.
 
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PK Cronin

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Oh. I understand your point now. My apologies. I didn't realize that the disconnect was you don't feel that xGF metrics were inaccurate. I thought you were implying they are just merely not predictive.

I actually agree with you. I don't think they are accurate in the sense that a team at 55% is better than a 53%. However, I do think it's fairly accurate in giving you an idea of which teams are actually good 5 on 5. I do believe it does a fairly good but imperfect job at telling us which teams are good 5v5 independent of goaltending. The quote above also talks about overall goal differential, which is also a good statistic to look at. However, that takes into account goaltending and special teams.

The great thing about hockey, is that it's random in a good way once the playoffs come. Two seasons ago, The Isles had no business beating the Penguins and Bruins. They got badly outplayed. However, they had far superior goaltending during that series and won. Then they actually played a very good series against the lightning and were a goal away from winning the cup (they were beating the Canadiens if they got past TB).

You're using the very stat I'm discrediting to make the assertion.

Let me use a made up dump-ins stat as an example:

1) Dump-ins say that the Islanders were outplayed badly.
2) Dump-ins have been shown to be ineffective at predicting outcomes of games or series.
3) Dump-ins were wrong at predicting the Penguins or Bruins series.

You're now saying the Islanders were badly outplayed because the Dump-ins stat says so, even though we know it can't predict winners and losers, and it incorrectly predicted the outcomes of the very series you're commenting on. It becomes meaningless at this point.

What is the significance of "badly outplayed" if it doesn't translate to wins or losses? There isn't much.


What drives me insane about the Isles, is the ignorance they have towards such data. There aren't many teams with an elite goaltender making 4 mil a season. During their two long playoff runs from 2019-2021, they had an xGF of 51% and an actual GF% of 52%. They were legitimately good. Unfortunately, Lou decided they were too good and refused to make obvious improvements. He dealt for and signed players that were decent, but not what the Isles actually needed. I understand that posters love Pageau and Palmieri. I actually like them too. However, in a tight cap world we lost Eberle and Toews in order to keep those two players. That's a huge downgrade. Since the 2021 season we have an xGF% of 48% with an actual GF% of 52%. The difference there is goaltending. If you break down the numbers further, you come away learning that Sorokin is an elite goaltender. In the last two seasons, Sorokin has a .934 even strength save percentage (1st in the league). In that same time frame he has an .868 High danger save percentage. That's 4th. Only Shesterkin, Husso, and Knight have hight High danger save percentage than Sorokin. Of the 4 only, Shesterkin and Sorokin have at least 80 gp during that timespan. Long story to say, Sorokin is damn good and you don't need stats to tell you that.

I think there's a little bit of revisionist history happening here in regards to Eberle and Toews, but I'm not interested in going down that rabbit hole again. What I will comment on is the bolded.

Why are we looking at these stats across multiple seasons? They're different teams playing against different competition. It's falling into the "unsustainable" argument that always "wins" because teams that have success always have a drop off after multiple seasons. If it takes three years for a team to fall off because they're "unsustainable" then it's a meaningless statistic as well and there's no way to disprove people who believe it's meaningful because it's an inevitability that teams will ebb and flow over time.

It'd be as if I'm thumping my chest over successfully predicting that an airplane will eventually have to land, but giving no timeframe for when that will actually happen.

However, why have the Islanders ignored that we have been so heavily dependent on goaltending the last two seasons? Or do you disagree with that statement. Furthermore, is it justifiable? Sorokin is part of the team, sure. However, by ignoring that the 4th line is a black hole and guys like Bailey are unfortunately no longer useful NHL pieces, the Isles have fallen behind significantly behind real cup contenders. Whatever stats you want to use is fine, but they all point to the Isles being mediocre and ignoring possession stats. It's evident in their trades/signings and their on ice play. I believe xGF% is a fairly accurate representation of how a team controls play 5v5. I understand that you don't.

That's not quite right. I do think it more likely represents that, but I don't think whoever is controlling play is necessarily the better team. During the Trotz era the Islanders routinely let other teams control the puck on the perimeter of their zone. That was by design so I have a hard time suggesting they're bad because they're implementing a strategy that is in direct opposition to the stat you're using to measure quality of play.

This will be overly simplistic and dumb but it should get my point across. It'd be like using a stat based around passing in the NFL to determine who played better, but a few teams just never threw the ball and people use that passing stat to say they're bad teams, even if they're winning. They're not bad teams, they're using a different strategy than other teams so the passing stat becomes less useful.

I had mentioned before that these stats are all assuming teams are trying to play in a similar manner and that's a big flaw with them.

As for whether or not I disagree with the Islanders relying on goaltending, no I do not disagree with that. I think that goaltending is something management and the coaching staff are aware of being good, so they're attempting to construct the roster and system to use it to the maximum potential. I disagree that they're ignoring that the fourth line is struggling or Bailey's decline, I actually think they're trying to find ways to mitigate it. That's why Lambert is opening up the offense and relying on the great goaltending, because if you have great goaltending you can afford to take more chances.

Where I'm unsure is, do you believe this team is good? And are you as angry as I am with how poorly Lou has constructed the roster and managed the cap? Are you angry that he's wasting a superstar goaltender on a 4 million contract for only one more season? I'm furious.

I've said for the past two seasons (before they started) that this team is a bubble playoff team. Last season they were really derailed by COVID bullshit and it's really hard for me to fault Lamoriello for the failure of that season when they were just handed a bunch of losses by the NHL forcing them to play with an AHL roster while everyone else got a reprieve.

I don't think he's managed the cap poorly, I think the cap constraints around the league had a much greater impact on his ability to make moves than anything he's done directly. Where are the bad contracts? I don't think there are too many individual contracts that were bad the moment they were signed. Lee and Pulock maybe, but that's pretty much it to me. There's just too much redundancy and he hasn't been able to move Bailey or Beauvillier for an upgrade. He managed to get rid of Eberle but immediately replaced him with Palmieri, which hasn't worked out as intended and he deserves some criticism there but I thought Palmieri would've worked better too (especially after he started to gel in the playoffs).

I'm annoyed or frustrated that Lamoriello didn't do more than Romanov this summer. Even with chalking up last year as nothing he could do scenario, the elephant in the room is that the Islanders need more talent up front to win the cup. This was the third off-season he didn't bring anyone of substance in and I would've sold more of the farm or picks to bring in the talent for more of a run if I were him and believed this team could win the cup.

He should've started to replace the fourth line sooner too, finding cheaper/faster guys. I have criticisms, but it's generally more about what he hasn't done and less about how they've approached playing on the ice (until this season at least, I prefer lock down defense but I understand it's a personal preference).
 
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Top Corner

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You're using the very stat I'm discrediting to make the assertion.

Let me use a made up dump-ins stat as an example:

1) Dump-ins say that the Islanders were outplayed badly.
2) Dump-ins have been shown to be ineffective at predicting outcomes of games or series.
3) Dump-ins were wrong at predicting the Penguins or Bruins series.

You're now saying the Islanders were badly outplayed because the Dump-ins stat says so, even though we know it can't predict winners and losers, and it incorrectly predicted the outcomes of the very series you're commenting on. It becomes meaningless at this point.

What is the significance of "badly outplayed" if it doesn't translate to wins or losses? There isn't much.




I think there's a little bit of revisionist history happening here in regards to Eberle and Toews, but I'm not interested in going down that rabbit hole again. What I will comment on is the bolded.

Why are we looking at these stats across multiple seasons? They're different teams playing against different competition. It's falling into the "unsustainable" argument that always "wins" because teams that have success always have a drop off after multiple seasons. If it takes three years for a team to fall off because they're "unsustainable" then it's a meaningless statistic as well and there's no way to disprove people who believe it's meaningful because it's an inevitability that teams will ebb and flow over time.

It'd be as if I'm thumping my chest over successfully predicting that an airplane will eventually have to land, but giving no timeframe for when that will actually happen.



That's not quite right. I do think it more likely represents that, but I don't think whoever is controlling play is necessarily the better team. During the Trotz era the Islanders routinely let other teams control the puck on the perimeter of their zone. That was by design so I have a hard time suggesting they're bad because they're implementing a strategy that is in direct opposition to the stat you're using to measure quality of play.

This will be overly simplistic and dumb but it should get my point across. It'd be like using a stat based around passing in the NFL to determine who played better, but a few teams just never threw the ball and people use that passing stat to say they're bad teams, even if they're winning. They're not bad teams, they're using a different strategy than other teams so the passing stat becomes less useful.

I had mentioned before that these stats are all assuming teams are trying to play in a similar manner and that's a big flaw with them.

As for whether or not I disagree with the Islanders relying on goaltending, no I do not disagree with that. I think that goaltending is something management and the coaching staff are aware of being good, so they're attempting to construct the roster and system to use it to the maximum potential. I disagree that they're ignoring that the fourth line is struggling or Bailey's decline, I actually think they're trying to find ways to mitigate it. That's why Lambert is opening up the offense and relying on the great goaltending, because if you have great goaltending you can afford to take more chances.



I've said for the past two seasons (before they started) that this team is a bubble playoff team. Last season they were really derailed by COVID bullshit and it's really hard for me to fault Lamoriello for the failure of that season when they were just handed a bunch of losses by the NHL forcing them to play with an AHL roster while everyone else got a reprieve.

I don't think he's managed the cap poorly, I think the cap constraints around the league had a much greater impact on his ability to make moves than anything he's done directly. Where are the bad contracts? I don't think there are too many individual contracts that were bad the moment they were signed. Lee and Pulock maybe, but that's pretty much it to me. There's just too much redundancy and he hasn't been able to move Bailey or Beauvillier for an upgrade. He managed to get rid of Eberle but immediately replaced him with Palmieri, which hasn't worked out as intended and he deserves some criticism there but I thought Palmieri would've worked better too (especially after he started to gel in the playoffs).

I'm annoyed or frustrated that Lamoriello didn't do more than Romanov this summer. Even with chalking up last year as nothing he could do scenario, the elephant in the room is that the Islanders need more talent up front to win the cup. This was the third off-season he didn't bring anyone of substance in and I would've sold more of the farm or picks to bring in the talent for more of a run if I were him and believed this team could win the cup.

He should've started to replace the fourth line sooner too, finding cheaper/faster guys. I have criticisms, but it's generally more about what he hasn't done and less about how they've approached playing on the ice (until this season at least, I prefer lock down defense but I understand it's a personal preference).
I have been of the same mindset going into last years season.Still felt the COVID ERA playoffs were a rebranded / Scaled down facsimile of the original with no fans, then partial fans that didn’t bring out the same intensity. Even with this scenario, My feeling was if we’re not good enough to make finals we needed to get better or every other team needed to get worse. Lou basically did nothing but return the same group. Call me crazy but if a key doesn’t work in opening a door, continuing to put the same key in won’t yield a different result. Now it’s quite possible nothing was available that Lou felt could improve the group but based on his age and me being slightly younger, it’s easier to do nothing than to take a chance and make it worse. I think with him selling all the high end picks in search of a mystery piece , it was super important that all the young players developed to a point of being significant (Barzal,Beau,Whalstrom, Bellows, Dobson) and when that didn’t look to be the case as Dobson was the only player that was advancing under Trotz , it was Time for Trotz to go. Lou inactivity has been disappointing and it’s going to take a big move to yield better success or it could lead to disaster but it needs to happen.
 

The Real JT

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I actually think Clutter might yield a third round pick if he stays healthy. He has the right game for playoff hockey, good on the PK, tolerable contract for the acquiring team and a third rounder for a playoff bound team isn’t a big ask.

Remember the old days when we traded a third for Brandon Davidson?

I'm definitely in seller's territory now. This team just doesn't have enough depth for injuries of this magnitude.
You better hope Lou gets fired or Ledecky puts handcuffs on him around the TDL.
 

Mike C

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It's a long shot every year though. Both years this team made the Conference Finals they were considered a long shot.
Fair enough but the team is older, the league has gotten faster and we have jogged in place

Also those runs, awesome as they were, happened in different (covid rules) circumstances

I am a believer that anything can happen in a short series but I'm still 50/50 on even getting there before worrying about winning 4 series.

Latest Vegas odds from one place has NYI as 16th favorite at plus 4500. We can pony up 5 bills to win 22,500!
 

Mike C

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I have been of the same mindset going into last years season.Still felt the COVID ERA playoffs were a rebranded / Scaled down facsimile of the original with no fans, then partial fans that didn’t bring out the same intensity. Even with this scenario, My feeling was if we’re not good enough to make finals we needed to get better or every other team needed to get worse. Lou basically did nothing but return the same group. Call me crazy but if a key doesn’t work in opening a door, continuing to put the same key in won’t yield a different result. Now it’s quite possible nothing was available that Lou felt could improve the group but based on his age and me being slightly younger, it’s easier to do nothing than to take a chance and make it worse. I think with him selling all the high end picks in search of a mystery piece , it was super important that all the young players developed to a point of being significant (Barzal,Beau,Whalstrom, Bellows, Dobson) and when that didn’t look to be the case as Dobson was the only player that was advancing under Trotz , it was Time for Trotz to go. Lou inactivity has been disappointing and it’s going to take a big move to yield better success or it could lead to disaster but it needs to happen.
Don't disagree with much of your thoughts although I contend that Barry was dealt a crap hand last season and the players you mentioned aside from Barzal have not taken strides without Barry so maybe those guys are the problem

Sadly, the 2 key players, Barzal and Pelech, to quote the new woke phrase, "quiet quitting" on Barry the last 15-20 games sealed his fate
 

Chardo

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I actually think Clutter might yield a third round pick if he stays healthy. He has the right game for playoff hockey, good on the PK, tolerable contract for the acquiring team and a third rounder for a playoff bound team isn’t a big ask.

Remember the old days when we traded a third for Brandon Davidson?


You better hope Lou gets fired or Ledecky puts handcuffs on him around the TDL.
Which is exactly why the Islanders keep him. Those things are more valuable to this team than a third round pick.
 
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