Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[duster19]

Can you point to any hockey trades made before Xmas by any GM this season?

That’s why you do your work in the off-season. Lou had a poor off-season and it’s leading to a problems. To go into camp having not signed a vet d was really poor on our GM.

 

[JPIsles18]

The trade has been serviceable so far, with upside for more. I think you are underselling the impact on the Isles.

Here is my question to you, if the Isles did not use the pick to add a defenseman capable of holding his own physically and logging big minutes, how would YOU have filled out the defense? What would be the plan to bring in talent AND make it all work with the cap?

Because after Pelech, Pulock, Dobson and Mayfield, who are the Isles using in those last two spots AND who would be the third defenseman with Pelech injured now?

I also don't understand the pivot in your argument either.

Trade a first for a (two-year rental) player like Goodrow or Coleman? That is a redundant move when the Isles are getting similar contributions from Parise at $1 million, have been getting cheap production from Fasching, Holmstrom, etc.

In the past you have been critical of JGP. However, paying JGP $5 million and flanking him with say Parise at $1 million and then maybe Holmstrom on an ELC or Fasching at $750,000, seems like a good use of cap space to me, right? A solid third line for under $7 million feels like a bargain in the NHL right now.

The LAST thing the Isles need is a middling Goodrow, Coleman, etc. at forward. Let alone one that would walk in a year or so. The Isles needed a young defenseman (check) and now they need a topline player.

To be honest, I don't actually know who was available to be brought in as a top 6 LD. But I don't believe that is the best way to look at it. Just because you have a need, doesn't mean you have to overpay for it. Especially when the need for forwards was much greater. Debrincat, and Fiala would have been better investments in my opinion. They obviously cost more against the cap, but they are difference makers. Lou has tried to build a team filled with average players who don't move the needle much. He doesn't take big swings. Romanov, JGP, and Palmieri are all such examples.

Which brings me to the pivot you talk about. Coleman/Goodrow were cost controlled for two years providing elite level bottom 6 forwards. The team acquiring these players already had Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Point, Vasilevsky, etc. Their need was cheap depth. They got that at a relatively low cost. Once FAs Goodrow got 3.4 and Coleman got 4.9. Lightning got those players when they were making ~1-2 mil. This was a team that understood what they were lacking and executed.

Isles don't function this way. It was clear to everyone except for Lou that they were lacking at least one top 6 forward. What'd they do? Traded for a defensive defenseman. I agree that guys like Parise and Fasching are good value. It makes the JGP overpay more palatable. However, the death by a thousand paper cuts model created by Lou makes it very difficult to build a powerhouse. We have a bubble team. Lou should've known that, but he chose not to do anything about it. And here we are.

 

[JPIsles18]

I do not like data that indicates what I want, because that's not useful. Again, that's what you're doing and you've moved goal posts a few times now and have ignored a huge portion of what I said (and what you said originally).

Either the fancy stats are the best at predicting winners and losers, and do so regularly, or they're just another stat like everything else. What is the success rate? How are you measuring predictability?



You know what's crazy about that? Half the league is above 50%. So strange that the teams that make the playoffs would be above 50% xGF. Let's take a look at the teams last year and see how they did:

1) Boston lead the league in xGF% during the regular season. It's odd that they were just a Wild Card team and were bounced in the first round by Carolina (who is #5 in xGF%).

2) Florida was number two. They won the President's Trophy, so that's cool. They beat the Capitals (#15), the second Wild Card team and then were swept by Tampa Bay (#9). That's kind of weird, no?

3) Toronto sat at number three. How'd that go for them again? They also lost to Tampa Bay (#9), but in the first round.

4) Calgary was number four. They had a nice run to the second round. They beat Dallas (#14) in the first round but lost to Edmonton (#12) in round two, in five games.

5) Carolina was five. They beat that top team in the first round like I mentioned earlier. Then they lost to the Rags (#24).

6) Minnesota will buck the trend for sure here. Nope, they lost to St. Louis (#23) in the opening round.

7) We're not doing so well, but maybe Los Angeles will change things up a bit. Checking my notes it looks like they lost in the first round too...against Edmonton (#12). Huh, that's odd.

8) Pittsburgh, here we go. They're the real deal. They beat the Rags...oh no, wait, they lost in the opening round to the Rags (#24).

9) This is it. Tampa Bay to the rescue. They beat Toronto (#3), then beat Florida (#2), then they win once more against the Rags (#24). Unfortunately, they lose to Colorado (#11) in the finals.

10) Vegas must've been pretty good for these stats. They won...nothing, they didn't even make the playoffs.

I'll stop there. Of the thirteen match ups mentioned above if you were to expect teams with the better xGF% to win the series you would be really sad. They were 3-10.

Now let me do xGA since you say it's the best.

1) Boston. Still a first round exit.

2) Minnesota. Still a first round exit.

3) Nashville. First round exit.

4) Calgary, second round exit to Edmonton (#15).

5) Tampa Bay, cup final loss to Colorado (#8).

6) Seattle. Didn't qualify.

7) Toronto. First round exit to Tampa Bay (#5).

8) Colorado. Cup winners.

9) Pittsburgh. Still a first round exit.

10) Washington, still a first round exit.

So of the top 10 teams in xGA, six of them didn't win a round (and Seattle didn't even qualify).

If that's the level of predictability we're talking about with fancy stats, they can f*** right off.

I mean, you can just look at goal differential and say that teams who have a higher differential are usually better. So insightful. Every team that made the playoffs last year had a positive goal differential, except one. Thirteen of the top 16 teams in goal differential made the playoffs, amazing coincidence. Did you know that teams that give up fewer goals than other teams are also more likely to make the playoffs than their counterpart? Who would've guessed?! Oddly enough, teams that score more than the rest of the league also make the playoffs more frequently than those that don't. What do you think about that? This next one is pretty crazy, teams that win more are more likely to do better in the standings than teams that win less. f***ing nutty.

If all you're doing is predicting who will make the playoffs with the fancy stats, what's the point? There are enough stats that do it just as well, and are way less complicated.

-----

As for your obsession with me wanting Lamoriello and the Islanders painted in a positive light, I'm not sure where you get that from. I mentioned at the beginning of last year and this year that they're a bubble playoff team. That is sure some rose colored glasses I'm looking through. It's so strange that they finished in the 9th spot in the Eastern Conference last year. Also strange that I made that prediction before any of the fancy stats for the season existed. Where are they right now? Oh, in that same position. Wild how I was able to guess that.

Just because I disagree with your assessment of trades, because you want to view Lamoriello negatively to push your narrative, doesn't mean I want him to look good. I'm as objective as I can be with the organization, with the exception of Bailey, and I call'em how I see'em. Crying about overpaying for Pageau or the first to acquire Romanov is some of the most nonsensical shit that really uneducated fans complain about. We've seen so many first round busts over the past ten years and still people believe that they'll win that lottery. I'd go back and do either trade again in a nano-second. Pageau helped the team get to back to back Eastern Conference Finals, and is a solid third line center you never have to worry about. Romanov, I'd even add to that trade after seeing him play. Mobile, physical, shot blocking young defensemen don't grow on trees and he's so far ahead of the learning curve for defensemen already.

If you don't like the trades, fine, but the five dollar scratcher draft picks trying to win a million dollars rarely works.

You want some issues I have with Lamoriello? I didn't like Trotz being let go. I still think there's more to it than the need for a new voice, but it doesn't really matter. I prefer defense first teams and this team doesn't do that anymore. I wasn't happy with Chara being a regular last year. I'm not happy with Aho being a regular this year. I wanted him to make a move for a forward in the summer. I'm not thrilled with the fourth line all getting new contracts and would've dismantled that line a few seasons ago. What you perceive as liking or viewing things positively is simply the fact that I understand some of the decisions he's made, even if I disagree with it. He's old as dirt, he's not going to be doing a rebuild, even if I think he should. I understand that, it doesn't mean it's something I'm thrilled about. There's a spectrum of good and bad, it isn't columns of good and bad for me when judging a GM.

So the gist of your argument is that consistently outplaying your competition isn't important because only one team can win the Stanley Cup?

If you don't think out chancing your opponent is important, I can't really convince you otherwise. There are other variables like special teams and goaltending. This year the Isles are in the bottom 10 in xGF%. They haven't been good.

When your team consistently gets out chanced 5v5 and has to rely on elite goaltending, it's not a good team. It's a bad team with great goaltending. That's what they've been the last two seasons.

 

[Top Corner]

Can you point to any hockey trades made before Xmas by any GM this season?

Not every team needs to make a trade but we are looking at an aging group that on best nights is considered by the hockey world to be a team fighting to get a wildcard spot not division champs. How about this, Can you name any GM that has been GM for almost 5 years and has made fewer player for player trades than Lou ? We can color code it anyway we want but Lou did bring respectability back to the franchise and hired a Stanley Cup coach that was able to get the most out of an average lineup but as a GM responsible for the on ice product, he has not found any success in advancing this roster

 

[The Real JT]

That’s why you do your work in the off-season. Lou had a poor off-season and it’s leading to a problems. To go into camp having not signed a vet d was really poor on our GM.

I agree with the first sentence.

The second sentence I’d change from vet d to legit winger with speed.

 

[Mike C]

I agree with the first sentence.

The second sentence I’d change from vet d to legit winger with speed.

Or both.

Not every team needs to make a trade but we are looking at an aging group that on best nights is considered by the hockey world to be a team fighting to get a wildcard spot not division champs. How about this, Can you name any GM that has been GM for almost 5 years and has made fewer player for player trades than Lou ? We can color code it anyway we want but Lou did bring respectability back to the franchise and hired a Stanley Cup coach that was able to get the most out of an average lineup but as a GM responsible for the on ice product, he has not found any success in advancing this roster

That's quite well said. Nice job!

 

[CupHolders]

To be honest, I don't actually know who was available to be brought in as a top 6 LD. But I don't believe that is the best way to look at it. Just because you have a need, doesn't mean you have to overpay for it. Especially when the need for forwards was much greater. Debrincat, and Fiala would have been better investments in my opinion. They obviously cost more against the cap, but they are difference makers. Lou has tried to build a team filled with average players who don't move the needle much. He doesn't take big swings. Romanov, JGP, and Palmieri are all such examples.

Which brings me to the pivot you talk about. Coleman/Goodrow were cost controlled for two years providing elite level bottom 6 forwards. The team acquiring these players already had Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Point, Vasilevsky, etc. Their need was cheap depth. They got that at a relatively low cost. Once FAs Goodrow got 3.4 and Coleman got 4.9. Lightning got those players when they were making ~1-2 mil. This was a team that understood what they were lacking and executed.

Isles don't function this way. It was clear to everyone except for Lou that they were lacking at least one top 6 forward. What'd they do? Traded for a defensive defenseman. I agree that guys like Parise and Fasching are good value. It makes the JGP overpay more palatable. However, the death by a thousand paper cuts model created by Lou makes it very difficult to build a powerhouse. We have a bubble team. Lou should've known that, but he chose not to do anything about it. And here we are.

JGP was not an overpay.

 

[CupHolders]

Not every team needs to make a trade but we are looking at an aging group that on best nights is considered by the hockey world to be a team fighting to get a wildcard spot not division champs. How about this, Can you name any GM that has been GM for almost 5 years and has made fewer player for player trades than Lou ? We can color code it anyway we want but Lou did bring respectability back to the franchise and hired a Stanley Cup coach that was able to get the most out of an average lineup but as a GM responsible for the on ice product, he has not found any success in advancing this roster

I can’t find fault in your general reasoning. But @Throttle is right to point out no trades were made, specifically by the time frame you originally stated (pre holiday break).

That clearly means that the market is currently not there. Unless you want the Isles to overpay. Which I assume you and most here would be extremely upset about.

 

[seafoam]

Get Chychrun at this point, losing Pelech makes this team a candidate for the Bedard bowl…

 

[Top Corner]

I can’t find fault in your general reasoning. But @Throttle is right to point out no trades were made, specifically by the time frame you originally stated (pre holiday break).

That clearly means that the market is currently not there. Unless you want the Isles to overpay. Which I assume you and most here would extremely upset about.

Totally understand that a deal might not
Have been there and an overpayment is not something that generally works out well. My statement was essentially that something needed to get done if we hoped to save the season. I basically felt that more needed to get done outside of Romanov prior to season start

 

[Glorydays22]

Look, we know Lou won't clear house as he should. This club no matter what is NOT winning a Stanley Cup or coming close to it.

To me, ride on the season with the players we have. In the off-season, Lou retires and we retool this team by getting rid of all the dead weight. It's the only way. Trading for Meier or anyone else and giving up 1st rounders and the farm is NOT the way to go.

We have to hope the new GM who comes in here won't be vested in the core guys like Bailey, Lee, Nelson, Clutter, Casey, Martin....Shit even Pudlock. The only hope is this roster next year looks totally different.
The New GM has to be creative to move these guys...for faster, younger players.

And to me Romanov is a bust.....Get rid of him now while (if he has any) trade valve. He's not a fit here. He's suppose to be a defensive defensemen but he can't play defense at all. To me you have guys like Bolduc, Wotherspoon who I think can make the roster full-time next year.

 

[MJF]

To be honest, I don't actually know who was available to be brought in as a top 6 LD. But I don't believe that is the best way to look at it. Just because you have a need, doesn't mean you have to overpay for it. Especially when the need for forwards was much greater. Debrincat, and Fiala would have been better investments in my opinion. They obviously cost more against the cap, but they are difference makers. Lou has tried to build a team filled with average players who don't move the needle much. He doesn't take big swings. Romanov, JGP, and Palmieri are all such examples.

Which brings me to the pivot you talk about. Coleman/Goodrow were cost controlled for two years providing elite level bottom 6 forwards. The team acquiring these players already had Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Point, Vasilevsky, etc. Their need was cheap depth. They got that at a relatively low cost. Once FAs Goodrow got 3.4 and Coleman got 4.9. Lightning got those players when they were making ~1-2 mil. This was a team that understood what they were lacking and executed.

Isles don't function this way. It was clear to everyone except for Lou that they were lacking at least one top 6 forward. What'd they do? Traded for a defensive defenseman. I agree that guys like Parise and Fasching are good value. It makes the JGP overpay more palatable. However, the death by a thousand paper cuts model created by Lou makes it very difficult to build a powerhouse. We have a bubble team. Lou should've known that, but he chose not to do anything about it. And here we are.

I think Lou knew what he had and it didn’t matter to him. Like several people here, Lou felt that if we just make the playoffs, the rest of it would take care of itself because of Sorokin and the defense.

 

[PK Cronin]

So the gist of your argument is that consistently outplaying your competition isn't important because only one team can win the Stanley Cup?

If you don't think out chancing your opponent is important, I can't really convince you otherwise. There are other variables like special teams and goaltending. This year the Isles are in the bottom 10 in xGF%. They haven't been good.

When your team consistently gets out chanced 5v5 and has to rely on elite goaltending, it's not a good team. It's a bad team with great goaltending. That's what they've been the last two seasons.

No, that's not the gist of the argument because that'd indicate that I agree that the stats you referenced are accurate for measuring teams being "outplayed.". Here, I used that cool new Chat GPT thing everyone is talking about to help you out:

"The post discusses the unpredictability of the playoffs in hockey and the ineffectiveness of certain advanced statistics, such as xGF% and xGA%, in predicting the outcomes of playoff games. The author cites several examples of teams with high rankings in these statistics losing in the playoffs and argues that more traditional statistics, such as goal differential, are just as effective at predicting playoff success. The author also disputes the idea that they have a bias in favor of a particular team and cites their accurate prediction of that team's performance as evidence."

Again, if the stats are so useful then why are they wrong so much? If they are wrong so frequently, why are they useful?

 

[Mike C]

Look, we know Lou won't clear house as he should. This club no matter what is NOT winning a Stanley Cup or coming close to it.

To me, ride on the season with the players we have. In the off-season, Lou retires and we retool this team by getting rid of all the dead weight. It's the only way. Trading for Meier or anyone else and giving up 1st rounders and the farm is NOT the way to go.

We have to hope the new GM who comes in here won't be vested in the core guys like Bailey, Lee, Nelson, Clutter, Casey, Martin....Shit even Pudlock. The only hope is this roster next year looks totally different.
The New GM has to be creative to move these guys...for faster, younger players.

And to me Romanov is a bust.....Get rid of him now while (if he has any) trade valve. He's not a fit here. He's suppose to be a defensive defensemen but he can't play defense at all. To me you have guys like Bolduc, Wotherspoon who I think can make the roster full-time next year.

Agree with most of what you say. I wouldn't mind an outsider, a guy with no NYI linkage but with hockey acumen and successful experience be given free reign to do what needs to be done

 

[Mike C]

No, that's not the gist of the argument because that'd indicate that I agree that the stats you referenced are accurate for measuring teams being "outplayed.". Here, I used that cool new Chat GPT thing everyone is talking about to help you out:

"The post discusses the unpredictability of the playoffs in hockey and the ineffectiveness of certain advanced statistics, such as xGF% and xGA%, in predicting the outcomes of playoff games. The author cites several examples of teams with high rankings in these statistics losing in the playoffs and argues that more traditional statistics, such as goal differential, are just as effective at predicting playoff success. The author also disputes the idea that they have a bias in favor of a particular team and cites their accurate prediction of that team's performance as evidence."

Again, if the stats are so useful then why are they wrong so much? If they are wrong so frequently, why are they useful?

Because Billy Beane was a feel good story 25 years ago

 

[TeamKidd]

Get Chychrun at this point, losing Pelech makes this team a candidate for the Bedard bowl…

...id rather get Bedard...

 

[seafoam]

...id rather get Bedard...

That's easier said than done, but at the rate GMLL trades you could say the same for a roster upgrade...

 

[MJF]

Get Chychrun at this point, losing Pelech makes this team a candidate for the Bedard bowl…

Don't.

I'd rather have Bedard instead.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Don't.

I'd rather have Bedard instead.

Isles never get lucky to win the lotteries. I would happily trade a playoff appearance to win the lottery for Bedard.

 

[The Real JT]

Losing Pelech has been a huge blow but who are we kidding? This middling group of forwards was never getting us to the promised land.

Head injuries always are a big concern but the length of Pelech’s absence is growing increasingly worrisome. If he’s out long term, all bets are off.

It makes me wonder, do our owners have the b@lls to cut Lou loose if we go .500 or less in the next 10 games? Otherwise, I worry Lou could make an ill advised move before the TDL that will handcuff the team for several seasons to come.

I hope the team rights the ship and goes on a little run from here. If not, then frankly falling out of the playoff race might be a better scenario than lurking just on the outside.

 

[Tahoeblue]

I wasn't too crazy about the Romanov/George deal from the beginning but warmed up to it as the season progressed. He is still only 22 years old and I have hopes for him to settle in and the coaching staff properly develops him and pairs him correctly with a complimentary d partner. Pelech injury truly exposes some warts.

Certainly tough times surrounding this team right now and how to proceed and plenty of fans weighing in on approach. I would say keep an eye out for Debrincat on Ottawa if he doesn't resign. Will command a high contract for sure and shuffling and sending out contracts will not be easy.

Enjoy your Saturday

 

[Mike C]

Losing Pelech has been a huge blow but who are we kidding? This middling group of forwards was never getting us to the promised land.

Head injuries always are a big concern but the length of Pelech’s absence is growing increasingly worrisome. If he’s out long term, all bets are off.

It makes me wonder, do our owners have the b@lls to cut Lou loose if we go .500 or less in the next 10 games? Otherwise, I worry Lou could make an I’ll advised move before the TDL that will handcuff the team for several seasons to come.

I hope the team rights the ship and goes on a little run from here. If not that then frankly falling out of the playoff race might be a better scenario than lurking just on the outside.

Out of respect for Lou's contributions to the organization and the league overall, I wouldnt cut him mid season and would give him the chance to "resign" and even offer him some figurehead position. I might tell him not to trade assets just to get an 8th seed

As far as who we were kidding....nobody but ourselves

 

[seafoam]

Don't.

I'd rather have Bedard instead.

The odds of getting Bedard are slim to none.

 

[PK Cronin]

Because Billy Beane was a feel good story 25 years ago

I think the use in baseball is way more appropriate than in hockey because it's so much easier to calculate certain things because of the static nature of the game. And even in that sport it's not the end all be all for figuring out who is good or who is going to win.

There are just so many flaws with them and they're just casually brushed to the side. They're using a spoon to mow the lawn and saying, "it's the best we have and if you disagree you're a heathen."

 

[Mike C]

I think the use in baseball is way more appropriate than in hockey because it's so much easier to calculate certain things because of the static nature of the game. And even in that sport it's not the end all be all for figuring out who is good or who is going to win.

There are just so many flaws with them and they're just casually brushed to the side. They're using a spoon to mow the lawn and saying, "it's the best we have and if you disagree you're a heathen."

Beane hasn't won much of anything and was a phenomenon by getting a couple of mediocre teams into the playoff.

Thanks to him we have releivers opening games, starters going 3-4 innings and geeks calling the dugout telling managers how the hitter does vs the pitcher when the sun is high but not too high but only the 3rd time facing him

JUST PLAY THE DAMN GAME EH??