Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

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Glorydays22

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Nov 21, 2011
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83.5 m cap means -

4.5 for Mayfield
3 for Wahlstrom
2.2 for Varlamov
.75 for Parise

And that brings them right to the cap with no deals - really not sure Beau or Bailey have a market next off season? BAiley has 1 year left maybe? More movable than Beau?

This is why I’d advocate for a trade at the TDL - 2023 1st with Bailey/Beau for a rental.
for a rental?? really you give that much up? Are we ever going to draft a player in the 1st round ever again? One of the deepest draft...system is bad and you want to move the pick...not me and hell now for a rental.

Barzal would need to play wing, Horvat is a center and elite face off guy. Obviously Beau is in deal for him but whom else? Beau, Raty and a 1st?
Brazal will ever agree to be a winger. Not to mentioned hes never played that position before.
No way I'm giving Raty, Beau and a 1st for Horvat. Also reminder, he turned down Van offer which was just under 8M per. So he's looking for 8M...are you paying him 8M for say 7 yrs for a player who's best 3 years points wise are 61, 53 and 52
 
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DerekKingSnipes

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for a rental?? really you give that much up? Are we ever going to draft a player in the 1st round ever again? One of the deepest draft...system is bad and you want to move the pick...not me and hell now for a rental.


Brazal will ever agree to be a winger. Not to mentioned hes never played that position before.
No way I'm giving Raty, Beau and a 1st for Horvat. Also reminder, he turned down Van offer which was just under 8M per. So he's looking for 8M...are you paying him 8M for say 7 yrs for a player who's best 3 years points wise are 61, 53 and 52
It’s nights like tonight that make me believe they shouldn’t be buying.
 

DerekKingSnipes

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Buy if you are making a purchase that will benefit the future....not if your looking to keep the window open for this year alone.
That’s the move for sure, try and shake a young player from a team who’s struggling like Meier, Petersson in Vancouver, even a guy like Keller in Arizona. These are players I’d give up first rounder for, even a couple firsts. This kind of trade added to this core I believe would invigorate this group.
 

The Real JT

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It’s nights like tonight that make me believe they shouldn’t be buying.
I’ve been there since game 1 but have resigned myself to the reality that Lou doesn’t operate that way. Our only way out of this is for ownership to put handcuffs on him if the Isles continue to underperform. I’m not sure that would happen.

Meanwhile we are what we should’ve expected. Mediocre. We could even win the next 2 against marquee teams. Those teams are undermanned at the moment and crazy things happen in this league.

Don’t let that fool you. We’re not good enough to be a viable Cup contender even with an add at the TDL. Many of the best teams right now will also add players. Like us, they’re also looking to be a better version of what they are today.

Just my 2 cents.
 
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scott99

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Would you trade two 1st round picks for Chychrun ? I think it would be worth looking at.
 

JPIsles18

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Jul 12, 2022
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If he didn’t sign Palms, then he went from Eberle (-25g), no Palms, then where was that 20G plus coming from for a team that lacked scoring under Trotz? Walstrom? Ha. Or some $1M scrub like Sonny Milano? Ha ha.

Here’s the deal, as Understood identified the Isles are not in the premium game for players, no matter new building, yada, yada, that just put them on a level playing vs putting them above anyone. Barzal is not Crosby and no one is signing with the Isles to want to play with Barzal.

And when the Isles do go UFA, they, well, have to overpay. So, that inherently forces the cap issue. Lou resigns his own guys bc he KNOWS he’s not covering for a like player for similar money in UFA and you can’t keep trading for every player.

The biggest UFA to sign with the Isles in 30 years has been Varly bc of Lou, yup, a starting goaltender The team badly needed one for years. Oh, he also got that Russian guy to come over too.

Johnny Trademark wasn’t signing with the Isles - that’s all made up stuff for clicks. Signing Kadri to that deal? My lord would fans be all over Lou’s arse in 2-3 years when he’s hogging cap room worse than Bailey. But, hey, at least Lou did something…

Fire Lou, retire Lou, whatever, but very likely Isles end up with LESS credibility and influence in the league when his replacement (his son or not) takes over and it ain’t gonna be because Lou messed up the cap situation…gonna be real fun to see that happen in Isles fandom.
I know you have an intense love affair with Lou. And to an extent it's deserved. He has had incredible success in the league. He's completely turned around the Isles culture. Credit has to be given where it's due. The results have been there despite a lackluster collection of talent for years now.

However, I refuse to believe some of these false narratives.

Year after year he has not been able to improve the roster. Unforced errors with bad contracts has hampered his ability to attain talent. There is this dumb narrative that the Isles can't sign UFAs. Winning changes all of that. The Isles had two successful playoff runs. If they had managed the cap better, they would be able to acquire UFAs. With a stagnant cap, teams with cap space have a chance to acquire such players. A perfect example was JG this offseason. I disagree with you. JG would've signed with the highest bidder. You can't convince me that a team like CBJ won him over with their cannon and terrible roster. They quite simply gave him the best offer. By his own admission, the Isles never made an offer. It was between the Devils and CBJ by all accounts. It was reported that the CBJ made the better offer. He signed. Isles weren't even in on him, and under 10 mil, he's actually an underpay. Bad contracts are the reason the Isles didn't have the space to sign him. And yes, I know you think these are all great contracts on the Isles and not a single guy is overpaid. If that were true, they'd be movable to make space for a JG (an actual gamechanger). If you're right though, and they were movable (with positive value) and Lou chose not to move them is an even bigger indictment on his roster building acumen.

Now let's pretend you're right, and Isles can't sign UFAs. Debrincat, Bjorkstrand, Toews, etc are just some examples of players that had to be moved for cap reasons/high qualifying offers. This again points to cap space being a huge asset. You can pick up such a player for rather cheap cost because you have the cap space others don't. Pacioretty was taken for free just as a cap dump (I know he's injured, but at 7 mil x1 year, he's a much better investment than anything the Isles have in their middle 9.

Further example of Lou poor asset management is Romanov. He gave up a 13th overall pick for him. It's been less than half a season, but he's not good. He does not impact the game at all offensively. Defensively on 5v5 he is constantly out of position. His best asset is shot blocking. Spending a relatively high pick on a guy with negative value is another wasted opportunity. That pick could've been spent on a better asset.

I don't know. I'm trying to drink the same Kool Aid you are. I love this team. But when watching the true elite teams, and then watching the Isles, I'm constantly underwhelmed. They often look slower, less precise with their passes, miss the net, allow a ton of chances due to poor defensive structure. They have been kept afloat by incredible goaltending. However, the goaltending has been very average lately, and the results speak for themselves. This is not a good enough roster. It may be good enough to sneak in the playoffs. However, it isn't good enough to make the push you'd expect from a team that made two impressive runs two seasons ago. This is what happens when a GM falls in love with their roster. This is what happens when fans fall in love with the GM that falls in love with their flawed roster. They start making excuses.
 

IslesNorway

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I’ve been there since game 1 but have resigned myself to the reality that Lou doesn’t operate that way. Our only way out of this is for ownership to put handcuffs on him if the Isles continue to underperform. I’m not sure that would happen.

Meanwhile we are what we should’ve expected. Mediocre. We could even win the next 2 against marquee teams. Those teams are undermanned at the moment and crazy things happen in this league.

Don’t let that fool you. We’re not good enough to be a viable Cup contender even with an add at the TDL. Many of the best teams right now will also add players. Like us, they’re also looking to be a better version of what they are today.

Just my 2 cents.
I'm with you. This is a bubble team and the last thing I want is paying for short term at the TDL when there really isn't that much hope they'll go far in the playoffs.

Romanov style trades are the way to go, but they can't trade away 1st round picks every year. Keep it this year and look for upgrades elsewhere. Retool in the summer by starting move the old core out, so you can have a young up and coming team when Barzal, Dobson etc are entering their prime.
 

JPIsles18

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Jul 12, 2022
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Would you trade two 1st round picks for Chychrun ? I think it would be worth looking at.
No. Our issue is more with our forwards. They're not good. I'd rather trade 1st rounders for a Timo Meier. Meier would be an excellent acquisition. Nice thing about Meier is, unless we give up Barzal or Sorokin, we'd be winning the trade regardless of what we give up.

Perhaps Romanov and a 1st can get us Timo. Hopefully Grier is as bad as Lou, and thinks Romanov is good.
 

MJF

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Would you trade two 1st round picks for Chychrun ? I think it would be worth looking at
Absolutely not. Our defensemen are fine. Our problem is the way Lambert has coached the team to cheat out of the D zone to try to spur some more offense from the team.
 

seafoam

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Start getting feelers on Mayfield and Varlamov. Heck, Parise and Wahlstrom as well.
 

scott99

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Absolutely not. Our defensemen are fine. Our problem is the way Lambert has coached the team to cheat out of the D zone to try to spur some more offense from the team.
Our defensemen are fine ? Have you watched them ?
 

The Real JT

Draft and develop. UFAs like no taxes/original 6
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Start getting feelers on Mayfield and Varlamov. Heck, Parise and Wahlstrom as well.
I’m with you but I’d say no on Parise unless he asks for an opportunity to go to a contender.

The guy willingly came to us, even chose us specifically. That needs to be respected.
 

JPIsles18

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Jul 12, 2022
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I'm with you. This is a bubble team and the last thing I want is paying for short term at the TDL when there really isn't that much hope they'll go far in the playoffs.

Romanov style trades are the way to go, but they can't trade away 1st round picks every year. Keep it this year and look for upgrades elsewhere. Retool in the summer by starting move the old core out, so you can have a young up and coming team when Barzal, Dobson etc are entering their prime.
Romanov is bad at hockey. I hope they don't trade for Romanovs in the future. He's 22, so hoping he can develop into a decent top 6 guy, but 30 games in, it's looking bad. He's average in the defensive zone. However, he is so bad at transporting and passing the puck, that the territorial play is usually in the D zone when he's on the ice. It's no coincidence that Dobson has been better since Aho replaced Romanov. Coincidentally, Mayfield's metrics have been worse. Mayfield is actually very good at what he does. Romanov has dragged down all of his defensive partners thus far. Hoping he's still learning the system. It took Mayfield a while too. But IMO, that trade has looked really bad so far.

Of all defensemen that have played at least 500 5v5 minutes, only Fowler, Faulk, Kulikov, Provorov, Pionk have allowed more xGA. He's at 44% xGF% for the season. For a dman who doesn't provide anything offensively, that's really bad.

I'm really hoping that Lou realizes his mistake and deals him as part of a bigger deal for a top 6 forward. There has to be other GMs that think he's good.
 

JPIsles18

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Jul 12, 2022
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They have 100% been the problem this year
The defense as a whole has been an issue. Too many chances. I don't think the new system is good. Too many chances against, and a reliance on goaltending. Lou is delusional thinking that a team with few offensive playmakers can play this style of game without adding more competent pieces.

I believe that the Isles issue with defense has been more an issue with the offense. There is rarely sustained pressure in the o zone. The team is not a good possession team and play most of the game in their own zone. That will expose most defensemen in the league. When the Isles do set up in the offensive zone, they mostly stay on the perimeter and utilize long range shots from the point hoping for deflections and screens. It's a flawed roster. Now that the goaltending has come back to earth, this will get ugly.

Which may be good because, maybe ownership will wake up in terms of Lou not being the guy. Ideally he gets promoted to President or some non-personnel job, and we get a new guy who understands how modern hockey is played.
 

xECK29x

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Romanov is bad at hockey. I hope they don't trade for Romanovs in the future. He's 22, so hoping he can develop into a decent top 6 guy, but 30 games in, it's looking bad. He's average in the defensive zone. However, he is so bad at transporting and passing the puck, that the territorial play is usually in the D zone when he's on the ice. It's no coincidence that Dobson has been better since Aho replaced Romanov. Coincidentally, Mayfield's metrics have been worse. Mayfield is actually very good at what he does. Romanov has dragged down all of his defensive partners thus far. Hoping he's still learning the system. It took Mayfield a while too. But IMO, that trade has looked really bad so far.

Of all defensemen that have played at least 500 5v5 minutes, only Fowler, Faulk, Kulikov, Provorov, Pionk have allowed more xGA. He's at 44% xGF% for the season. For a dman who doesn't provide anything offensively, that's really bad.

I'm really hoping that Lou realizes his mistake and deals him as part of a bigger deal for a top 6 forward. There has to be other GMs that think he's good.
Agree to an extent, I still think he brings a good and missing element of physicality and he is terrific in the room (for whatever that is worth), and he is one of the better players in the league denying entry chances into our zone, I disagree that he is bad at transporting and passing the puck out of the zone. As a young D who has played in the NHL since 18 his development was really, really rushed and he is still pretty raw he just relies on awful habits he needs to break.

There is still lots of potential here, just have to keep him at 2.5 or less over the next few years.

1671291426575.png
 
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xECK29x

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I don't think the new system is good.
Honestly most teams play similar systems, it's going to take another year under Lambert for the D to adjust. Trotz was just magic, you aren't going to see that type of freakish turnaround often like from Weight to Trotz. Trotz's system I think worked in a quick turnaround like that because you had a highly coachable group with a good leadership core without internal issues getting back to highly detailed but simple overall hockey. Lamberts system you can see is more technical, it relies on guys being in the right spots all the time for it to work. you notice that with the passes that automatically happen during breakouts to guys that miss their assignments, the whole thing breaks down too easily.
 
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MJF

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Our defensemen are fine ? Have you watched them ?
Yes. Every game. Have you noticed how we cover in the D zone? The forwards either leaving the zone before the puck is secured or one forward cherry picking? That’s part of structure. And the worst one to have back there all by himself is Sebatian Aho. He can’t body an opponent away from the crease. Physical mismatch.

Why do you think Pelech and Pulock look rather ordinary this year? Do you think they suddenly forgot how to play lock down defense? They have no support, no layers of help.
 
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MJF

Hope is not a strategy
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Honestly most teams play similar systems, it's going to take another year under Lambert for the D to adjust. Trotz was just magic, you aren't going to see that type of freakish turnaround often like from Weight to Trotz. Trotz's system I think worked in a quick turnaround like that because you had a highly coachable group with a good leadership core without internal issues getting back to highly detailed but simple overall hockey. Lamberts system you can see is more technical, it relies on guys being in the right spots all the time for it to work. you notice that with the passes that automatically happen during breakouts to guys that miss their assignments, the whole thing breaks down too easily.
Lambert is asking for guys who aren’t particularly fast or don’t have good hands to be at spots or execute a simple pass. He’s seeing now why this style of play may not be right for this roster. Can’t force square pegs into round holes.
 
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xECK29x

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Lambert is asking for guys who aren’t particularly fast or don’t have good hands to be at spots or execute a simple pass. He’s seeing now why this style of play may not be right for this roster. Can’t force square pegs into round holes.
Exactly what I notice too, if you aren't good at handling the puck quick in transition as a forward it's going to not work for you. Wahlstrom really sticks out there as a negative.
 
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Mike C

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Exactly what I notice too, if you aren't good at handling the puck quick in transition as a forward it's going to not work for you. Wahlstrom really sticks out there as a negative.
I'm not the smartest guy in the room but I like to think I'm not the dumbest.

Wouldn't spending several years as an assistant around these same players give Handsome Lane the indication of their limitations and capabilities?
 

WangMustGo

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Exactly what I notice too, if you aren't good at handling the puck quick in transition as a forward it's going to not work for you. Wahlstrom really sticks out there as a negative.

The problem is outside of Barzal and Nelson all of our forwarda have extremely noticeable weaknesses. The top 9 forwards need revamping, ideally Romanov is a 3rd pairing LD, and our special teams need to be better (PK has been very mediocre outside of the first ~10 games).

I dont see a short term solution here, the easiest way to fix this would be with a great farm system that could slowly come up and fill the gaps, while flipping some assets for proven assets.

Unless they go on a good run i think you have to sell at the deadline, get another 1st for Mayfield, 2nd for Varly, and see about any of our other veteran players that teams may have an interest in.
 

Throttle

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I know you have an intense love affair with Lou. And to an extent it's deserved. He has had incredible success in the league. He's completely turned around the Isles culture. Credit has to be given where it's due. The results have been there despite a lackluster collection of talent for years now.

However, I refuse to believe some of these false narratives.

Year after year he has not been able to improve the roster. Unforced errors with bad contracts has hampered his ability to attain talent. There is this dumb narrative that the Isles can't sign UFAs. Winning changes all of that. The Isles had two successful playoff runs. If they had managed the cap better, they would be able to acquire UFAs. With a stagnant cap, teams with cap space have a chance to acquire such players. A perfect example was JG this offseason. I disagree with you. JG would've signed with the highest bidder. You can't convince me that a team like CBJ won him over with their cannon and terrible roster. They quite simply gave him the best offer. By his own admission, the Isles never made an offer. It was between the Devils and CBJ by all accounts. It was reported that the CBJ made the better offer. He signed. Isles weren't even in on him, and under 10 mil, he's actually an underpay. Bad contracts are the reason the Isles didn't have the space to sign him. And yes, I know you think these are all great contracts on the Isles and not a single guy is overpaid. If that were true, they'd be movable to make space for a JG (an actual gamechanger). If you're right though, and they were movable (with positive value) and Lou chose not to move them is an even bigger indictment on his roster building acumen.

Now let's pretend you're right, and Isles can't sign UFAs. Debrincat, Bjorkstrand, Toews, etc are just some examples of players that had to be moved for cap reasons/high qualifying offers. This again points to cap space being a huge asset. You can pick up such a player for rather cheap cost because you have the cap space others don't. Pacioretty was taken for free just as a cap dump (I know he's injured, but at 7 mil x1 year, he's a much better investment than anything the Isles have in their middle 9.

Further example of Lou poor asset management is Romanov. He gave up a 13th overall pick for him. It's been less than half a season, but he's not good. He does not impact the game at all offensively. Defensively on 5v5 he is constantly out of position. His best asset is shot blocking. Spending a relatively high pick on a guy with negative value is another wasted opportunity. That pick could've been spent on a better asset.

I don't know. I'm trying to drink the same Kool Aid you are. I love this team. But when watching the true elite teams, and then watching the Isles, I'm constantly underwhelmed. They often look slower, less precise with their passes, miss the net, allow a ton of chances due to poor defensive structure. They have been kept afloat by incredible goaltending. However, the goaltending has been very average lately, and the results speak for themselves. This is not a good enough roster. It may be good enough to sneak in the playoffs. However, it isn't good enough to make the push you'd expect from a team that made two impressive runs two seasons ago. This is what happens when a GM falls in love with their roster. This is what happens when fans fall in love with the GM that falls in love with their flawed roster. They start making excuses.
What contending team has cap space to accommodate for larger assets? None, all the guys you mention went to non-playoff teams.

Yeah, CAR got damaged goods for ‘free’ - yet their problem isn’t offense.

Don’t have a love affair with Lou, rather, understand how fans are passionate about this franchise, but it’s not a premium franchise. We can believe all day long that Johnny Trademark would have signed with the Isles, if they had the space: that is very lofty assumption w/o any legit information to support other.

Fans complain all day long about the 10 guys overpaid and causing cap issues, yet he clearly overpaid and bought into the one trick pony ice capades - he’s overpaid but it’s acceptable bc he can skate and it’s everyone’s else’s fault on the roster and GM. Beau is overpaid as he was ‘invested in’ to improved, he hasn’t. Pulock is overpaid that’s for sure. Again, another player he invested in. All of these guys were the team’s own picks too.
 
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PK Cronin

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Yes. Every game. Have you noticed how we cover in the D zone? The forwards either leaving the zone before the puck is secured or one forward cherry picking? That’s part of structure. And the worst one to have back there all by himself is Sebatian Aho. He can’t body an opponent away from the crease. Physical mismatch.

Why do you think Pelech and Pulock look rather ordinary this year? Do you think they suddenly forgot how to play lock down defense? They have no support, no layers of help.

This is correct.

Great defense for years, with mostly the same team, and now they've suddenly forgotten how to play defense while scoring a lot more goals? Nope. This roster has to choose, they either play offense or they play defense, they're incapable of doing both as currently constructed. I preferred the defensive version of the team.
 
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