I'm asking what Throttle thinks will happen to attendance if there are early exits following last year's non-playoff season?
Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California
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Mike C
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I'm curious, since I'm not up there, how come the fans wouldn't think a playoff birth this season even if there is an early exit would show at least some improvement over last season. You obviously have an insight into the fans thinking where I am 700 miles away. From a distance I would like to think that small steps forward is OK as long as there is continued progress
Lame Lambert
Fire Lou
- Mar 5, 2015
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Team has abandoned its ability to play defense in an attempt to score more goals, which they are not doing.
I think, in the bigger, picture Isles have been conditioned to always expect the bottom to drop out. And those steps forward were followed up by a huge step backwards.
Last year we missed the playoffs. Same old Islanders.
Lou is f***ing up the roster. Same old Islanders
Why should I pay for season tix to support this bunch of plugs? Same old Islanders.
As much as Isles fans like to tout themselves as one of the most passionate fanbases, and they do carry such a strong presence on social media with all the meetup groups, clothing lines, bagels, etc, when it comes to buying season tickets they won’t do it. They look for reasons not to buy. They’ll let someone else do it and look for that guy to dump his tix on StubHub for half price.
We’re under water
Long Island isn’t Manhattan right MSG is in the heart of one of the greatest business district in the world, corporate money washes over the city in buckets. During the Rangers 7 year absence from the playoffs they continually sold out, businesses buying seasons for clients. That dynamic is not on the Island, season tickets are a luxury not many can afford, life is expensive for working families raising children and the odd game here or there is the only option and yes saving money is paramount! Therefore ticket exchanges are definitely getting a first look.
Past success doesn't guarantee future success. The team, currently, by all metrics, is bad or below average except for one: goaltending. The team was not as reliant on goaltending in the two seasons they made runs.
2019-2020 shortened season: Isles were at 49% xGF. That wasn't good. However, they were allowed in due to the weird play in. In the playoffs, the Isles were at 52% xGF. They improved as the season went on. They were better against better competition in the playoffs starting in the play in round. This then spilled over into the 2020-2021 season, where the Isles again were at 52% xGF and were legitimately good all year. However, if you really want to talk about revisionist history. The Isles weren't good in the first two rounds of the 2021 playoffs. Their xGF% was 46%. If you remember, they got outplayed by the Bruins and Penguins. The goaltending the Isles faced those two rounds were bad and the Isles managed to get past them. However, the Isles bounced back nicely and played fairly well against the Lightning and lost in game 7 on SHG.
Credit has to be given. They went further than anyone expected. And that is the point. There was an element of luck and intermittent good play to get us that far. However, fans and experts alike, watched this team and kept saying there was a missing ingredient. That ingredient varied based on who you talked to. But for me, it was another elite forward. Someone who could create offense to complement Barzal, Nelson, Lee. Instead, Lou fell hard for this team, and added more of the same while subtracting Toews.
This inability to add and improve the product is a fireable offense. Last season was not a fluke. Yes, COVID and road trip was a big deal. They may not be as bad as they were last year. However, they peaked in 2020-2021 and have been since in decline. You can point that this team is built for the playoffs. But that team, mostly unchanged, is now two years older. It was a huge miscalculation by Lou and with an aging team, that window started closing at the end of 2021. There was a chance this past offseason to maneuver some more talent on the team, but we squandered a precious asset for Romanov. Overall, a frustrating class of roster building incompetence ever since Lou took over.
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The salary cap was created for teams like the Islanders. As long as the team is spending towards the cap, selling out for big games, weekend games, and playoff games why do we care so much? UBS is obviously going to be much bigger than just the Islanders. They're a small market team who will come to show up when it counts. I also wonder if the COL of Long Island has anything to do with it combined with the amount of older fans who have moved out of Long Island who are the ones who can afford those things. Just a random thought.
Isles are in a playoff spot and have beaten some of the better teams in the league along with playing some great teams insanely close. I do not believe the sky is falling nearly as bad as you are saying. I am not convinced they are a Cup Contender yet either. Lou's tenure is going to be defined on how these draft picks he has had turned out. If guys like Bolduc, Ishakov, Holstrom, Raty, etc turn out good (along with Dobson/Wahlstrom) this team will have a long window.
This idea that the Islanders are focusing on the goaltending carrying them through was always going to be the case this season. I'd like to see Lou give Lambert the first line forward he never gave Trotz is Patrick Kane though. If they're gonna go for it you might as well go for it.
Lights911
Registered User
Or the majority of the players they have on defense aren’t good defensively.
@NC 1972
Nobody is talking about "selling out the entire season". But likewise if a couple of poor season puts us back to, say, 8,000 full and partial plan customers and nights of 10,000 people at UBS that should be a red flag to ownership. Obviously we're not at that stage yet, but if buying season tickets is so onerous to folks on the Island then we will have a problem in the future unless the rest of the Belmont redevelopment, and whatever way the Islanders find to broadcast their games in the future (create their own platform for streaming, deals with SNY or YES) provide revenue streams that the team doesn't have now.
It's the same old same old. Most Isles fans will buy season tickets if there's a chance to make the playoffs and drop them as soon as they miss the playoffs. Moving them out of Brooklyn and building the arena the fans wanted in Nassau County didn't mean a thing. And I'm sure if Jon Ledecky ever said what Wang said about "if you buy tickets I'll spend money" most fans would say to Ledecky "what have you done for me lately."
As for roster construction, I never thought the sky is falling. As I said all summer, this is likely a wild card team. 3rd in the Metro AT BEST. Our goaltending and defense is good enough to get that much. Long term we've got a problem with underperforming contracts and trying to get premiere UFAs to take our money. However as for this season, I'd feel a lot better about grinding out some 7 game playoff series if we were playing Trotz's lockdown system. The way we play Lambert's system I think we're going out in the 1st or 2nd round, if we even make the playoffs. This system hasn't translated into enough goals for while we're bleeding a lot of goals against. The Devils, Hurricanes, Bruins will knock us out early. We need that Metro 3 seed.
Islanders4Cups
Registered User
A tale of different realities.
The Isles are in the top half of the league in goals and goals against. They are even above average in the first half in the standings.
They have a poor powerplay which has been the only real metric below average.
They are not flashy but win rolling 4 lines and playing physical hockey.
Maybe that does not appeal to many folks but that is how they have been built and won since Lou signed on. They don’t have the scoring prowess of teams that set the league on fire but can’t win if they get to the playoffs
They are averaging 16k+ fans per game in the first half. That I can tell you has never happened before.
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danteipp
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Agreed on a lot of these points. I would also add, unless I heard wrong and today I am too lazy to check and confirm, but out of the Isles 13 losses so far, 8 have been to teams below them in the standings.
Assuming that is correct, then a lot of that is due to a sputtering power play. Playing down to inferior teams is a problem. Partially a mental problem. Those teams typically hold, take liberties and penalties at a higher rate.
When the refs finally make the penalty calls, you have to cash in. Otherwise the goalie gets in a groove and steals games while the opponent's confidence increases the longer they hang around. And the "makeup" calls that the NHL loves so much, in order to promote parity, then puts additional pressure on a team that misses on their PPs. The games against Arizona are a perfect example of this issue.
The solution, outside of continued organic growth of young players like Barzal, Wahlstrom, Dobson, Holmstrom, etc. is to go out and land that difference maker. Make life easier for everyone and slot players down a step.
Lou needs to get that top player and PP weapon to put those bad teams to bed earlier. Swap in a true star and difference maker and some of those lost points won't be an issue anymore.
replayer
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- Aug 3, 2005
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The Devils have already started hitting their first wall. It's a talented team, they'll rebound soon, but they're small and a lot of people believe come game 50/60, they're gonna run out of steam. I'm also a believer in the idea that a team, especially a young and talented team, needs to *learn* how to win in the playoffs. Their goaltending isn't great, and they were able to ignore that for a great 20 game run, but not so much lately.
Bottom 1/3rd in the league in xGF and xGA.
Excellent, excellent. Good work LL and other members of NYI management.
NHL teams more than any other league rely on season tickets for revenue. A full house also provides a great atmosphere. I’d like to see us have a robust customer base now that we have a home worthy of fan support. It’s good for the bottom line. So it disappoints me that all it took was missing the playoffs once after a f***ed up COVID season to see so many people drop their tickets. It bothers me that loyalty from Islanders fans is transactional. I think that’s our team’s fans, more than any other team in this market.
Buh bye. Tell Golyshev I said hello when you get home Sosh.
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scottywiper
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Special teams have fallen off a cliff. Our PP has never been great but now our PK is horrible!
Sure if you're looking at traditional metrics from the 90s, yes. We have far better ways of measuring results. The reason it's important to pay attention to such metrics is because it does a much better job predicting successful results. And I know many spazz out when they hear xGF, but it's quite simple: it measures who gets the better of the chances during 5v5 play. And thus far, this season, there Isles have mostly gotten their ass kicked when it comes to 5v5 scoring chances. I don't care which rosy glass or statistics fans like to use to excuse this. That is the bottom line. Their goaltending has been elite. Which is why they have a winning record while being consistently out chanced. There are outlier games where they have looked real good. However, far and few between.
There's also the narrative of rolling 4 lines. This argument can only be used if you have 4 good lines. The Isles do not. Not anymore. They haven't been a 4 line team in two seasons now. They are force feeding important minutes to bad lines (the 4th line especially), but doesn't mean they can roll 4 lines effectively.
As far as the PP goes, we are 20th in GF/60 min on PP, however we are 11th in xGF/60. That may have something to do with our weak talent level. The PP does get chances, they are not converting as much as they should be. At times our PP looks flat out incompetent.
Using xGF 5v5, the Isles have had the better play in only 14 of 32 games. I know people love to play the result and say we're playing a successful brand of hockey because we are a bubble playoff team at present. However, that is a false narrative.
There are 8 teams worse than us in xGF% thus far: Blackhawks, Ducks, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Flyers, Canucks, Red Wings, and Canadiens. That's the company we keep. But sure, let's pretend we're having a great year.
danteipp
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BelovedIsles
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Yup, I prefer the boring, winning NYI. Team defense is one area I've been surprisingly disappointed in. Pelech being out is a huge factor, but overall, this is not even close to Trotz D. Lambert stated that he was taking Trotz' core D structure and adding an offensive twist. Well the D looks far worse. I know it isn't happening, but I wish Lou would lure Trotz out of his Sabbatical. He wouldn't do that b/c it would be admitting he made a mistake and generally is a bad optic.
Lame Lambert
Fire Lou
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danteipp
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At this point, the Isles should be looking to continue getting Holmstrom developmental minutes, use Fasching in place of Clutter (who is seemingly held together by duct tape and baling wire) and I would say spot one of Bailey/Beauvillier with whoever is playing and practicing with the most intensity.
The Isles singular focus should be finding that elusive top line forward and boost to the PP. The Isles do not necessarily need a team to retain salary, unlike some of the other teams, but any trade probably needs to have a team take on Beau or Bailey. I would send out Bailey's $3.5 million remaining in real money, this season and next, in an expanded trade.
The Isles singular focus should be finding that elusive top line forward and boost to the PP. The Isles do not necessarily need a team to retain salary, unlike some of the other teams, but any trade probably needs to have a team take on Beau or Bailey. I would send out Bailey's $3.5 million remaining in real money, this season and next, in an expanded trade.
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