Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[The Real JT]

Sure if you're looking at traditional metrics from the 90s, yes. We have far better ways of measuring results. The reason it's important to pay attention to such metrics is because it does a much better job predicting successful results. And I know many spazz out when they hear xGF, but it's quite simple: it measures who gets the better of the chances during 5v5 play. And thus far, this season, there Isles have mostly gotten their ass kicked when it comes to 5v5 scoring chances. I don't care which rosy glass or statistics fans like to use to excuse this. That is the bottom line. Their goaltending has been elite. Which is why they have a winning record while being consistently out chanced. There are outlier games where they have looked real good. However, far and few between.

There's also the narrative of rolling 4 lines. This argument can only be used if you have 4 good lines. The Isles do not. Not anymore. They haven't been a 4 line team in two seasons now. They are force feeding important minutes to bad lines (the 4th line especially), but doesn't mean they can roll 4 lines effectively.

As far as the PP goes, we are 20th in GF/60 min on PP, however we are 11th in xGF/60. That may have something to do with our weak talent level. The PP does get chances, they are not converting as much as they should be. At times our PP looks flat out incompetent.

Using xGF 5v5, the Isles have had the better play in only 14 of 32 games. I know people love to play the result and say we're playing a successful brand of hockey because we are a bubble playoff team at present. However, that is a false narrative.

There are 8 teams worse than us in xGF% thus far: Blackhawks, Ducks, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Flyers, Canucks, Red Wings, and Canadiens. That's the company we keep. But sure, let's pretend we're having a great year.

Do you get paid by the word? Wow.

I give him 2 minutes for embellishment.

 

[BelovedIsles]

I've generally been neutral on this subject b/c I'm neutral on the player, but I'm starting to think they should've held on to Ebs and forced the Kracken to take someone else (Bailey). Yeah, he isn't built for the playoffs; you have to get there first. If Palms is his replacement, he's not as dynamic offensively, nor is he consistently healthy.

 

[beach]

I've generally been neutral on this subject b/c I'm neutral on the player, but I'm starting to think they should've held on to Ebs and forced the Kracken to take someone else (Bailey). Yeah, he isn't built for the playoffs; you have to get there first. If Palms is his replacement, he's not a dynamic offensively, nor is he consistently healthy.

Absolutely should have kept Ebs.

 

[danteipp]

I give him 2 minutes for embellishment.

You don't think we can assign a match penalty for radical redundancy?

 

[danteipp]

I've generally been neutral on this subject b/c I'm neutral on the player, but I'm starting to think they should've held on to Ebs and forced the Kracken to take someone else (Bailey). Yeah, he isn't built for the playoffs; you have to get there first. If Palms is his replacement, he's not as dynamic offensively, nor is he consistently healthy.

Agreed, probably should have tried harder to keep Eberle over Bailey, in a vacuum, but in the end the Isles need to do better on both. That should be the goal now. Get the frontline forward and offset the cap hit with the cost savings of a Holmstrom, Fasching or other AHL prospect lower in the lineup.

 

[PK Cronin]

Sure if you're looking at traditional metrics from the 90s, yes. We have far better ways of measuring results. The reason it's important to pay attention to such metrics is because it does a much better job predicting successful results. And I know many spazz out when they hear xGF, but it's quite simple: it measures who gets the better of the chances during 5v5 play. And thus far, this season, there Isles have mostly gotten their ass kicked when it comes to 5v5 scoring chances. I don't care which rosy glass or statistics fans like to use to excuse this. That is the bottom line. Their goaltending has been elite. Which is why they have a winning record while being consistently out chanced. There are outlier games where they have looked real good. However, far and few between.

There's also the narrative of rolling 4 lines. This argument can only be used if you have 4 good lines. The Isles do not. Not anymore. They haven't been a 4 line team in two seasons now. They are force feeding important minutes to bad lines (the 4th line especially), but doesn't mean they can roll 4 lines effectively.

As far as the PP goes, we are 20th in GF/60 min on PP, however we are 11th in xGF/60. That may have something to do with our weak talent level. The PP does get chances, they are not converting as much as they should be. At times our PP looks flat out incompetent.

Using xGF 5v5, the Isles have had the better play in only 14 of 32 games. I know people love to play the result and say we're playing a successful brand of hockey because we are a bubble playoff team at present. However, that is a false narrative.

There are 8 teams worse than us in xGF% thus far: Blackhawks, Ducks, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Flyers, Canucks, Red Wings, and Canadiens. That's the company we keep. But sure, let's pretend we're having a great year.

Just because you like advanced stats doesn't mean it's right.

 

[MJF]

No bueno

 

[YearlyLottery]

I've generally been neutral on this subject b/c I'm neutral on the player, but I'm starting to think they should've held on to Ebs and forced the Kracken to take someone else (Bailey). Yeah, he isn't built for the playoffs; you have to get there first. If Palms is his replacement, he's not as dynamic offensively, nor is he consistently healthy.

At the end of the day I am fine with keeping Bailey over Eberle. The playoffs speak for themselves with both players. In Eberle's entire time here he had a good six games against Pittsburgh. When the going got tough for him and the game got more physical he floundered.

I think Bailey may be aging out of the league sadly. Though he is likely going to have another 40 point season and if he contributes come playoff time like he typically does there are no complaints from me. Would I rather have a different player there? Sure, but at the end of the day I don't think Eberle was going to help this team when it mattered most.

 

[BelovedIsles]

At the end of the day I am fine with keeping Bailey over Eberle. The playoffs speak for themselves with both players. In Eberle's entire time here he had a good six games against Pittsburgh. When the going got tough for him and the game got more physical he floundered.

I think Bailey may be aging out of the league sadly. Though he is likely going to have another 40 point season and if he contributes come playoff time like he typically does there are no complaints from me. Would I rather have a different player there? Sure, but at the end of the day I don't think Eberle was going to help this team when it mattered most.

Again, if they can get there in the first place. I still would've kept Ebs over Bailey, just a preference of player for me. Ebs also had chemistry with our franchise center, so that should be factored in. It's not a huge game changer, just seeing how badly this team needs some offensive creativity.

 

[BrockLobster]

No bueno

I still cant find anywhere what happened to him

 

[danteipp]

Just because you like advanced stats doesn't mean it's right.

I actually like looking at some of the advanced stats in order to judge the play of individual players, in order to help determine who deserves to play and who should be benched. I think there is a lot of merit in that and it can also be used for professional and amateur scouting.

I use some of those stats to help me select players in my fantasy football and baseball leagues. I think where a lot of the problems occur is when they are applied league and team wide.

There are so many variables to be considered and that may skew overall results and overlook some subtle differences between how teams are performing, chemistry, health, mental fortitude, etc.

 

[PK Cronin]

I actually like looking at some of the advanced stats in order to judge the play of individual players, in order to help determine who deserves to play and who should be benched. I think there is a lot of merit in that and it can also be used for professional and amateur scouting.

I use some of those stats to help me select players in my fantasy football and baseball leagues. I think where a lot of the problems occur is when they are applied league and team wide.

There are so many variables to be considered and that may skew overall results and overlook some subtle differences between how teams are performing, chemistry, health, mental fortitude, etc.

I don't have an issue with looking at the stats, I do have an issue with treating them as if they're objective. They're always conveniently used for whatever the OP is arguing.

See, the Islanders were bad according to the fancy stats in 2019-20. That's why they made it to the ECF.
Then the fancy stats said they were good for 2020-21, but they were actually bad in the first two rounds. Then they had good fancy stats again against the eventual cup winner.
Then in 2021-22 the fancy stats said the Islanders were bad, and they were bad. Obviously their success was unsustainable because the fancy stats said so!

Have these analytics ever been used to accurately predict the winners and losers of the season and the playoffs? If the fancy stats are wrong so often how much weight should they actually be given? If the Islanders can have bad fancy stats and good fancy stats in back to back seasons and end up at the same spot, doesn't that de-value them? If the Islanders had bad fancy stats against weaker opponents, and won, but better fancy stats against stronger opponents and lost, shouldn't that de-value them?

That's before we even get to how we're quantifying a "quality chance" and the subjectivity that comes along with that. Also, it completely ignores the fact that a team like the Islanders might not mind giving up more of those quality chances because they know they have above average goaltending. It's an attempt to treat every team as if they're implementing the same strategies to win and they aren't.

--

I think the way you're referring to using them makes the most sense because you're comparing players in the same system and against the same opponents. It's more apple to apples that way.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Past success doesn't guarantee future success. The team, currently, by all metrics, is bad or below average except for one: goaltending. The team was not as reliant on goaltending in the two seasons they made runs.

2019-2020 shortened season: Isles were at 49% xGF. That wasn't good. However, they were allowed in due to the weird play in. In the playoffs, the Isles were at 52% xGF. They improved as the season went on. They were better against better competition in the playoffs starting in the play in round. This then spilled over into the 2020-2021 season, where the Isles again were at 52% xGF and were legitimately good all year. However, if you really want to talk about revisionist history. The Isles weren't good in the first two rounds of the 2021 playoffs. Their xGF% was 46%. If you remember, they got outplayed by the Bruins and Penguins. The goaltending the Isles faced those two rounds were bad and the Isles managed to get past them. However, the Isles bounced back nicely and played fairly well against the Lightning and lost in game 7 on SHG.

Credit has to be given. They went further than anyone expected. And that is the point. There was an element of luck and intermittent good play to get us that far. However, fans and experts alike, watched this team and kept saying there was a missing ingredient. That ingredient varied based on who you talked to. But for me, it was another elite forward. Someone who could create offense to complement Barzal, Nelson, Lee. Instead, Lou fell hard for this team, and added more of the same while subtracting Toews.

This inability to add and improve the product is a fireable offense. Last season was not a fluke. Yes, COVID and road trip was a big deal. They may not be as bad as they were last year. However, they peaked in 2020-2021 and have been since in decline. You can point that this team is built for the playoffs. But that team, mostly unchanged, is now two years older. It was a huge miscalculation by Lou and with an aging team, that window started closing at the end of 2021. There was a chance this past offseason to maneuver some more talent on the team, but we squandered a precious asset for Romanov. Overall, a frustrating class of roster building incompetence ever since Lou took over.

Opinion and subjective parts in bold...take that away and stick to your facts and my facts....can't really see overwhelming evidence either way. Plenty of bad teams have won it all with poor metrics and good goaltending, and plenty of teams have won it all with darling metrics and crappy goaltending.

You mentioned they were outplayed by Penguins and Boston, but we needed great goaltending to get past them, which we got and as a platoon. So yes, they were reliant on goaltending and still are.

 

[PK Cronin]

Opinion and subjective parts in bold...take that away and stick to your facts and my facts....can't really see overwhelming evidence either way. Plenty of bad teams have won it all with poor metrics and good goaltending, and plenty of teams have won it all with darling metrics and crappy goaltending.

You mentioned they were outplayed by Penguins and Boston, but we needed great goaltending to get past them, which we got and as a platoon. So yes, they were reliant on goaltending and still are.

I also disagree with the notion they were outplayed by Pittsburgh and Boston.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Bottom 1/3rd in the league in xGF and xGA.

Excellent, excellent. Good work LL and other members of NYI management.

We've got them right were we want them...

 

[LeapOnOver]

Again, if they can get there in the first place. I still would've kept Ebs over Bailey, just a preference of player for me. Ebs also had chemistry with our franchise center, so that should be factored in. It's not a huge game changer, just seeing how badly this team needs some offensive creativity.

I think the chemistry with Barzal is the only thing that would give Eberle the edge. I imagine their must have been some behind the scenes leadership/team chemistry thing that may have given Bailey the edge. Something we'll never be privy too, but think we can all mostly agree it was too close to call and just a preference thing.

 

[SI]

I think the chemistry with Barzal is the only thing that would give Eberle the edge. I imagine their must have been some behind the scenes leadership/team chemistry thing that may have given Bailey the edge. Something we'll never be privy too, but think we can all mostly agree it was too close to call and just a preference thing.

I am really confused about this conversation about Eberle and Bailey - they were both left unprotected. Eberle was chosen. It's time to move on.

 

[danteipp]

I think the chemistry with Barzal is the only thing that would give Eberle the edge. I imagine their must have been some behind the scenes leadership/team chemistry thing that may have given Bailey the edge. Something we'll never be privy too, but think we can all mostly agree it was too close to call and just a preference thing.

Just to clarify, both Bailey and Eberle were exposed to Seattle, so it was their call on who they preferred.

 

[Lights911]

Yep all the players on the good defensive teams that we had now stink

When we’re we last good defensively? When we had Leddy? Toews? Greene? Chara? Should I keep mentioning players from the past teams that we used to have?

 

[LeapOnOver]

Just to clarify, both Bailey and Eberle were exposed to Seattle, so it was their call on who they preferred.

Yeah, I think I was responding to the idea of protecting one to force the other to be picked. At least that's what I remember the original comment was.

 

[danteipp]

Yeah, I think I was responding to the idea of protecting one to force the other to be picked. At least that's what I remember the original comment was.

I gotcha. Looking back at it right now, given the Isles needs, more open offensive system and both players output so far, it would have been better for the Isles to keep Eberle and unload Bailey.

At the time it was, at least to me, more of a toss up. It really felt like there was a case to be made both for and against Eberle vs. Bailey.

Eberle is the better offensive player but is streaky and had a brutal playoff series against Philly. If he could have just netted one of the say 10-15 golden chances he received, the Isles don't have to go seven games against the Flyers and who knows what would have happened if they were better rested.

Meanwhile Bailey has the tenure, is seemingly loved by his teammates and should be the better all-around player. But he isn't the natural goal scorer that Eberle is and appears to be in steep decline now.

I guess our best hope should be that the Isles find a way to upgrade significantly from both in one of Meier, Horvat, Tank, Kane, etc., while also working Holmstrom into the lineup on the cheap.

That would probably help some at even strength but really benefit the power play. Especially if Holmstrom can do a lot of the things Bailey has done in the past when he is going well. I think Holmstrom plays a stronger game along the boards and still has some room to get better, especially as he matures and fills out.

 

[Big L]

 

[leeroggy]

No bueno

I guess we can check off the "he left to take a poop" thought from the Las Vegas game.

Either that or PWJ has permeated his habit to our goalies and it backfired big time . . .

 

[Lame Lambert]

When we’re we last good defensively? When we had Leddy? Toews? Greene? Chara? Should I keep mentioning players from the past teams that we used to have?

Our top 4 has not changed in 3 years. Toews/Dobson is a wash defensively and Leddy was a 3rd pairing defenseman under Trotz. If you think this team’s defensive issues are because of the 3rd pairing I don’t know what to tell you.

 

[MJF]

I also disagree with the notion they were outplayed by Pittsburgh and Boston.

I think we were outplayed by Pittsburgh. Boston we managed to wear down as that series went on.