Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[periferal]

Re: "not" being able to move Bailey and Beau:
I'm afraid we've got to remember that every single thing we've read and heard about this team looking to move these guys in order to be able to make space for Kadri was pure, unequivocal hearsay and guesstimates. Not a thing was confirmed or verified or quoted or even hinted at from the horse's mouth.

People in the biz played connect the dots and we very hungry fans in Islanderville were very happy to have something, anything, to contemplate, as no less than this thread goes to show.

But there's not a single verified anything coming from the NYI front office, much less Lou himself, on who this team was or is trying to sign or was or is trying to move.

Not one word.

So, any fan or pundit out there making claims of "Lou was shopping player YY or ZZ" or "Lou wasn't willing to pay the price to move player YY or ZZ" actually doesn't know jack shit.

That Lou said he'd likely have to make a hockey trade back at the trade deadline did happen, and unless you count the move for Romanov (I always thought a "hockey trade" was more an indication of moving one NHLer for another), then that hasn't happened (yet).

So there's that.

But everything else is just fans and pundits making assumptions.

But here's the thing...

Like every single other GM, you know Lou has phone calls daily/weekly with other GMs/agents/etc trying to figure out moves that can be made and/or where prices stand.

Do I have absolute PROOF of that? Nope. Does anyone believe that doesn't happen to the point where we can all agree that it does? I hope so.

The reality is with Lou we will never have proof that anything has happened unless it comes from his mouth or the team announces it.

Doesn't mean there isn't a ton of things going on behind the scenes that other GMs, agents, players, etc DO know about...And when that happens things can, and often do, leak.

If you look at how "dark" things got around Kadri and how secondary reporters hinted that he was coming here, there is certainly reason to believe that Lou had a verbal agreement with Kadri pending him moving out money first. So Lou tried for weeks, couldn't find any takers, and eventually Kadri's camp had to move on.

Can we PROVE that? Not until someone pulls a "Dana White" and wants to share the story of what really happened (probably after Lou is dead).

Actually let's hope something like that actually did happen, because if it didn't...Then what the f*** has Lou been doing for the past 2 months?*





*Excited for some Lou stans to tell me he was very busy...When, if we going to follow the letter of the law in terms of consistency here...They have no PROOF that he was.

 

[periferal]

If this team is not a contender this season it is time to move on from Lou. Respect greatly what he has done for the organization but to not acquire any impact players this offseason is just awful.

Totally agree, but let's "carry the one" here...

Who amongst us believes the team, as currently constructed (including coaching), is going to be a legit Cup contender this year?

Lou definitely put himself at least closer to the hot seat by firing a hall of fame coach who most would agree was the main reason this ragtag lineup was able to make the semi-finals. Then he followed that up by saying that "hockey trades" would need to be made and it sure didn't feel like just landing Romanov was what he meant.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Re: "not" being able to move Bailey and Beau:
I'm afraid we've got to remember that every single thing we've read and heard about this team looking to move these guys in order to be able to make space for Kadri was pure, unequivocal hearsay and guesstimates. Not a thing was confirmed or verified or quoted or even hinted at from the horse's mouth.

People in the biz played connect the dots and we very hungry fans in Islanderville were very happy to have something, anything, to contemplate, as no less than this thread goes to show.

But there's not a single verified anything coming from the NYI front office, much less Lou himself, on who this team was or is trying to sign or was or is trying to move.

Not one word.

So, any fan or pundit out there making claims of "Lou was shopping player YY or ZZ" or "Lou wasn't willing to pay the price to move player YY or ZZ" actually doesn't know jack shit.

That Lou said he'd likely have to make a hockey trade back at the trade deadline did happen, and unless you count the move for Romanov (I always thought a "hockey trade" was more an indication of moving one NHLer for another), then that hasn't happened (yet).

So there's that.

But everything else is just fans and pundits making assumptions.

And as far as Beau is concerned, which again as you confirmed is all guestimates, he wasn't going to be moved as a cap dump, only as a clear upgrade type of hockey move. So it really just left Bailey. Lou's reluctance to move Varlamov (warranted, unwarranted up for debate) is probably what cost not freeing up the space for Kadri.

I mentioned before that these pundits are just too egotistical to admit they don't know. I had a boss back when I was a junior in high school that asked me a question and I tried to fumble an answer and he told me in his gruff voice, "If you don't know, say you don't know. Don't bullshit me". They need to learn what I learned 30 years ago, lol.

 

[LeapOnOver]

But here's the thing...

Like every single other GM, you know Lou has phone calls daily/weekly with other GMs/agents/etc trying to figure out moves that can be made and/or where prices stand.

Do I have absolute PROOF of that? Nope. Does anyone believe that doesn't happen to the point where we can all agree that it does? I hope so.

The reality is with Lou we will never have proof that anything has happened unless it comes from his mouth or the team announces it.

Doesn't mean there isn't a ton of things going on behind the scenes that other GMs, agents, players, etc DO know about...And when that happens things can, and often do, leak.

If you look at how "dark" things got around Kadri and how secondary reporters hinted that he was coming here, there is certainly reason to believe that Lou had a verbal agreement with Kadri pending him moving out money first. So Lou tried for weeks, couldn't find any takers, and eventually Kadri's camp had to move on.

Can we PROVE that? Not until someone pulls a "Dana White" and wants to share the story of what really happened (probably after Lou is dead).

Actually let's hope something like that actually did happen, because if it didn't...Then what the f*** has Lou been doing for the past 2 months?*





*Excited for some Lou stans to tell me he was very busy...When, if we going to follow the letter of the law in terms of consistency here...They have no PROOF that he was.

But even then, there's not really reason to believe. It's just as plausible that Kadri's camp knew the Isles were interested, and wasn't in any hurry. There could be no verbal agreement, he could have just preferred LI to Calgary and since he already waited this long he'd just keep waiting to see if Lou could move the money. I may be nitpicking, but verbal agreement seems too strong of a phrase to use with any certainty. It was probably more just a mutual interest thing he waited to see if it would play out. He might have been willing to take less money to come here....who knows. I don't think there is reason to believe anything without sounding foolish.

 

[SI]

Even with the Cap most probably increasing to 83.5 - 84 - the Isles will unfortunately be in the same predicament come next offseason.

Lou will have to convince teams its better to trade for Palmieri with 2y @ 5 AAV than sign a 30 year old free agent for 5x5+ or does Lehner come back healthy enough for Palmieri for Lehner swap (same contract and same years)? None of that signs very likely.

And Bailey 1y @ 5 AAV may have to be shipped with assets or maybe that Bailey for Dillon deal can happen since Dillon will be owed $4 m in cash (2m of that 4 is a bonus) vs. Bailey's 3.5m. Or maybe Bailey with 1m retained. Possible.

One thing that Lou will have to be quick to do is look to create space during the season - even if they are in a playoff spot. For example, If it looks like Raty is ready to take a job by January, then maybe Lou looks to move Beau for picks towards the deadline. Beau's value will be higher at the deadline than next offseason. Another example, could be acquiring a back up goalie who is under contract next season and then letting Varlamov walk or trade him to a team that is contending.

I am one that feels it will be impossible to upgrade the F group if Lou resigns Mayfield and Varlamov and doesn't move cap early.

 

[danteipp]

With respect to the Kadri situation, there is one thing we know for certain: two bidders give you far more leverage in contract negotiations than just a single team involved.

In terms of reasonable predictions:
- Calgary is the better fit for Kadri overall;
- He is Canadian and gets to play in his home country;
- The West is far weaker than the East;
- He doesn't have to play in the Metro, which is a grind;
- He can unequivocally play his natural position; and
- Calgary is clearly selling out for a run.

Based on just the above, if he didn't chose Calgary, it would probaby be because of his past relationship with Lou. I can't see any other material connection that Kadri would have to the Isles or the area.

If I had to guess, I would say Kadri was probably OK with waiting longer, if only to drive up his price, but Calgary forced the issue by telling him it was now or never once they got Montreal to agree to take on Monahan.

Calgary, specifically their GM, has also been a mix of more aggressive and desperate, and they had an extra first round chip coming in the next couple years due to the trade with Florida to play.

In time, maybe we will get the full story, but right now I would assume Calgary was probably Kadri's preferred choice and they made the stronger move to close the deal.

 

[Mike C]

With respect to the Kadri situation, there is one thing we know for certain: two bidders give you far more leverage in contract negotiations than just a single team involved.

In terms of reasonable predictions:
- Calgary is the better fit for Kadri overall;
- He is Canadian and gets to play in his home country;
- The West is far weaker than the East;
- He doesn't have to play in the Metro, which is a grind;
- He can unequivocally play his natural position; and
- Calgary is clearly selling out for a run.

Based on just the above, if he didn't chose Calgary, it would probaby be because of his past relationship with Lou. I can't see any other material connection that Kadri would have to the Isles or the area.

If I had to guess, I would say Kadri was probably OK with waiting longer, if only to drive up his price, but Calgary forced the issue by telling him it was now or never once they got Montreal to agree to take on Monahan.

Calgary, specifically their GM, has also been a mix of more aggressive and desperate, and they had an extra first round chip coming in the next couple years due to the trade with Florida to play.

In time, maybe we will get the full story, but right now I would assume Calgary was probably Kadri's preferred choice and they made the stronger move to close the deal.

Or maybe Lou called Bones45 and he convinced him not to move Bailey

Not now. Not ever. Right Bonesy??

 

[IslesNorway]

If this team is not a contender this season it is time to move on from Lou. Respect greatly what he has done for the organization but to not acquire any impact players this offseason is just awful.

Agree about moving on from Lou, but how could he have acquired any impact players this offseason?? Seriously, it's not been well established that there is NO MARKET for Bailey or Beau or anyone else this board would like to have traded. Would you trade off Bailey and a 1st round pick to sign Kadri and that horrendous deal?? Johnny Hockey clearly had no intention of signing here, and Lou clearly didn't the DeBrincat was worth that package he got. Columbus obviously wanted to send Bjorkstrand as far away as possible too. We're in a tight spot with the cap there is very little manoeuvrability for him to do any major deals. It's kinda disappointing and boring but it's the truth. Of course, it's his own fault we're in this spot with the bad contracts he's handed out.

Depending on the deals he's agreed with Dobson and Romanov, there might be room for a surprise or too as the Isles now have a little space to play with in the final month before the season starts.

 

[SI]

Agree about moving on from Lou, but how could he have acquired any impact players this offseason?? Seriously, it's not been well established that there is NO MARKET for Bailey or Beau or anyone else this board would like to have traded. Would you trade off Bailey and a 1st round pick to sign Kadri and that horrendous deal?? Johnny Hockey clearly had no intention of signing here, and Lou clearly didn't the DeBrincat was worth that package he got. Columbus obviously wanted to send Bjorkstrand as far away as possible too. We're in a tight spot with the cap there is very little manoeuvrability for him to do any major deals. It's kinda disappointing and boring but it's the truth. Of course, it's his own fault we're in this spot with the bad contracts he's handed out.

Depending on the deals he's agreed with Dobson and Romanov, there might be room for a surprise or too as the Isles now have a little space to play with in the final month before the season starts.

What kind of surprise? On D? At F?
14 F’s under contract and Bellows makes 15.

6 D under contract and space for one more.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

But here's the thing...

Like every single other GM, you know Lou has phone calls daily/weekly with other GMs/agents/etc trying to figure out moves that can be made and/or where prices stand.

Do I have absolute PROOF of that? Nope. Does anyone believe that doesn't happen to the point where we can all agree that it does? I hope so.

The reality is with Lou we will never have proof that anything has happened unless it comes from his mouth or the team announces it.

Doesn't mean there isn't a ton of things going on behind the scenes that other GMs, agents, players, etc DO know about...And when that happens things can, and often do, leak.

If you look at how "dark" things got around Kadri and how secondary reporters hinted that he was coming here, there is certainly reason to believe that Lou had a verbal agreement with Kadri pending him moving out money first. So Lou tried for weeks, couldn't find any takers, and eventually Kadri's camp had to move on.

Can we PROVE that? Not until someone pulls a "Dana White" and wants to share the story of what really happened (probably after Lou is dead).

Actually let's hope something like that actually did happen, because if it didn't...Then what the f*** has Lou been doing for the past 2 months?*





*Excited for some Lou stans to tell me he was very busy...When, if we going to follow the letter of the law in terms of consistency here...They have no PROOF that he was.

You're 100% right.

My post was basically intended to point out that people are going ape-sh%& ballistic about things that they've never once actually heard from Lou and the front office.

They seem to be pushing themselves towards heart attack land based on thoughts like "Calgary was willing to pay the price to bring in Kadri. Stupid Lou wrongfully wasn't. Boo hoo."

And that's just a terribly poppycock take based on admittedly educated assumptions, but also pumped up by people whose business is to gain clicks, acting as though they know something that all of us know they don't - and can't.

***
Now, as you and I both know, an assumption based on Lou's actual track record in general, and now especially with this club, is that he probably values a guy like Bailey in ways many fans don't see or understand, for better or worse. Anyone in the know can look at this roster and determine that, in order to add a high profile free agent, someone would have to go and Bailey would be the most likely target for trade based on his age and price tag.

But we know that Lou has a different way of valuing his players, both as parts of the puzzle and as human beings he believes in.

Again, for better or worse.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

If this team is not a contender this season it is time to move on from Lou. Respect greatly what he has done for the organization but to not acquire any impact players this offseason is just awful.

This is what I've been getting at.

Ok, so we're (bitterly) realizing that Lou likely thinks this group has what it takes to get back to the conference finals basically as is, and that the one real change necessary was to remove the SC-winning and highly respected Trotz in order to give the admittedly up-n-coming Lane Lambert a shot.

Can it all work out while the rest of the league is remodelling itself for greater competition?

Sure, it can. Not the thing you bet on after missing the playoffs. It's not the kind of business decision that has owners thinking it's all gonna work out.

We're at a point where Lou himself hasn't (yet) made some of the changes he basically indicated he would be looking to make at the trade deadline. And both the TD and draft went unused in this endeavor, although they tend to be the most fruitful times to conduct business with other GMs.

Ipso facto, this should be seen by the owners as a make-or-break season. He's proven he can make a team that wins and goes far. It's proven. The results are undeniable.

People can say but, but, but all they want, but the achievements of this NYI club in Lou years 1-3 are official and proven. No changing that.

Now there was a flop year with some obvious intangibles that had their effect. Few changes were made going into last season, but they didn't ultimately even keep this team at mediocrity, much less attain the same success of prior years. We all saw this team play. We saw this team spending much of the season NOT playing our hall of fame coach's form of hockey. We saw some key players not living up to the billing for large stretches of the season. Then the coach was quickly and surprisingly removed.

It was dumbfounding, but Lou is betting everything now that he has correctly sussed out what was preventing us from competing last season.

Now the onus is on all the remaining players to show that A) last season was a fluke of sorts and B) that indeed it was time for a coaching change and slight alteration in philosophy, the difference of which we do not yet know.

And this course change in coaching without making a course change in personnel should mean it's the make-or-break season for Lou. These are really his chips on the poker table right now.

 

[IslandersFan17]

It's not a good offseason, I don't think anyone would say it was.



It's not a coping mechanism, it's understanding that not all things are a binary.

No, it’s a coping mechanism. Lou failed to improve the roster while swinging and missing on seemingly the only two targets he had. This one is pretty binary either you improve the team or you don’t. Firing the only thing that made this team respectable, while again, having zero free agency plan outside of JG and then Kadri. It’s a thousand percent coping.

 

[IslandersFan17]

Truth be told, going into this offseason I was pretty confident a team like AZ, Ottawa, or NJ would take on Bailey or Beau without requiring an asset. These two could be useful to a lot of rebuilding clubs with space. I suspect the league knew Lou was in a bind, and weaponized that cap space. His incognito approach doesn't work.

It’s never worked, the whole cone of silence bullshit was cute decades ago. Now, acting like he makes moves in silence and stealth, when in reality the league had absolutely passed him by.

Lou seems to me think his reputation will resonate, and it certainly doesn’t with this generation of players. No one gives a shit about who he thinks he is at this point in his career, and it’s evident by the “big fish” who consistently pass him over.

There are no excuses anymore, the team has won, the facilities are state of the art, the ownership seems to genuinely care, etc…

Lou failed to improve and it’s almost guaranteed his ego gets in the way more than not.

 

[beach]

If Lambert is thinking of tinkering with Barzal or Nelson on the wing, Sam Steel could potentially be a savvy pickup as a middle six center.

I'd rather get Puljujarvi and leave our centers where they are.

 

[saintunspecified]

Now the onus is on all the remaining players to show that A) last season was a fluke of sorts and B) that indeed it was time for a coaching change and slight alteration in philosophy, the difference of which we do not yet know.

I really think that the coaching change was more about Trotz not being in all-in than it was about LL wanting a change. I know we can't truly know everything that went on, but the fact that Trotz stayed away from some excellent opportunities supports this thinking. I think we were getting (mostly) Lambert one way or the other, between delegation, and Trotz being in the final year of his contract. It is a normal way to do things to get rid of a coach in the last year of a deal unless the deal is being extended. And I'm pretty sure that Trotz was especially sensitive to that, given his final year experience with the Capitals. Taking all of those things together with the possibility that NYI could have easily lost Lambert to a Head Coaching job is the justification for the move. I really don't think it's about a change in direction, at all.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I really think that the coaching change was more about Trotz not being in all-in than it was about LL wanting a change. I know we can't truly know everything that went on, but the fact that Trotz stayed away from some excellent opportunities supports this thinking. I think we were getting (mostly) Lambert one way or the other, between delegation, and Trotz being in the final year of his contract. It is a normal way to do things to get rid of a coach in the last year of a deal unless the deal is being extended. And I'm pretty sure that Trotz was especially sensitive to that, given his final year experience with the Capitals. Taking all of those things together with the possibility that NYI could have easily lost Lambert to a Head Coaching job is the justification for the move. I really don't think it's about a change in direction, at all.

I think you're right.

Definitely think Lou and Trotz have had a strong relationship and are philosophically on the same page. Two peas from the same pod, so to speak.

Just something (likely those personal issues) were holding Trotz back from truly investing his whole coaching self into this group at this time. And it was obvious that something was no longer clicking, otherwise this team would have caught itself sooner and looked a lot more solid in its defensive team play. We didn't see this many breakdowns in the years before.

And Lambert is a Trotz protegé who was already interviewing with at least one other team last summer. Lou isn't jumping too much from the blueprint here.

I only expect minimal changes in direction and philosophy. But Lambert definitely has to figure out how he's going to use Bellows and Wahlstrom, and tickle more out of them while getting Barzal closer to 85-point land, where he was when he won the Calder.

Those really have to be the big differences Lambert brings to the table, as they can singlehandedly push this team into a new stratosphere as long as everyone is basically doing his thing accordingly.

 

[PK Cronin]

No, it’s a coping mechanism. Lou failed to improve the roster while swinging and missing on seemingly the only two targets he had. This one is pretty binary either you improve the team or you don’t. Firing the only thing that made this team respectable, while again, having zero free agency plan outside of JG and then Kadri. It’s a thousand percent coping.

Either you win the cup or you don't, Trotz sucked last year.

 

[The Real JT]

My thoughts are if you are ok and satisfied with him putting up say 15-18 goals and around 40-45 pts then ya keep him there. I don't think he's score 20, not on Nelson's line where he's the main scorer who'll probably net you 30+ and if Lee's on that line too, you would think he'd get 30 too. I think Nelson loves having Beau on his wing.

My only question is since most isles fans think he's unperforming. What numbers can he put up being on one of Brazal's wings?

But either way, to me Beau is a keeper.

Since Beau’s market value appears to be low, he’s definitely a keeper at this point in time considering his speed and youth which are in short supply on this squad.

As for Nelson, he had a great season no doubt but his shooting percentage was ridiculously high. Can he reach 30 goals again? Sure, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[saintunspecified]

I only expect minimal changes in direction and philosophy. But Lambert definitely has to figure out how he's going to use Bellows and Wahlstrom, and tickle more out of them while getting Barzal closer to 85-point land, where he was when he won the Calder.

That is the crux of it. If he can get Wahlstrom to do pay attention to simply doing his job, and give him a chance to gain some consistency, that'd be a big win. Easier said than done, because I'm not sure that Wahlstrom has the ability to perceive what he job is at NHL speed.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

That would seem to be the way we are headed. I still think he brings in a forward and defenseman, even if it is on PTO's and we run with what we have.

Lambert trying to get us more shots would be nice and finding a balance with our offense while not sacrificing too much on our identity, which is still our defense.

Younger minutes on the blueline with all five of Dobson, Pelech, Pulock, Romanov and Mayfield (in that order) taking the combined 2,550 minutes that were Chara and Greene last season (3rd and 5th among our defenseman as Chara had more minutes than Barzal and Greene bested Pulock) should help immensely. Hopefully Salo and Hutton get more looks as well.

Our forward group needs more from Barzal obviously and Palmieri building on his second half last season. Our youngsters (Wahlstrom, Beau, Bellows and perhaps Raty) are really key. We need 2-3 of them to show they truly belong.

Make no mistake though, should we be out of it come the deadline- Lou has to move Varlamov and Mayfield- minimum.

Next offseason we "should" find it easier to move Bailey (or Beau) with a single year left and we need those assets to help do so.

 

[beach]

That would seem to be the way we are headed. I still think he brings in a forward and defenseman, even if it is on PTO's and we run with what we have.

Lambert trying to get us more shots would be nice and finding a balance with our offense while not sacrificing too much on our identity, which is still our defense.

Younger minutes on the blueline with all five of Dobson, Pelech, Pulock, Romanov and Mayfield (in that order) taking the combined 2,550 minutes that were Chara and Greene last season (3rd and 5th among our defenseman as Chara had more minutes than Barzal and Greene bested Pulock) should help immensely. Hopefully Salo and Hutton get more looks as well.

Our forward group needs more from Barzal obviously and Palmieri building on his second half last season. Our youngsters (Wahlstrom, Beau, Bellows and perhaps Raty) are really key. We need 2-3 of them to show they truly belong.

Make no mistake though, should we be out of it come the deadline- Lou has to move Varlamov and Mayfield- minimum.

Next offseason we "should" find it easier to move Bailey (or Beau) with a single year left and we need those assets to help do so.

I'd try to sign Mayfield before the deadline. If he would be willing to sign for 2 - 2.2 mil a year for 3 years, I'd keep him.

 

[Throttle]

I think that's fair, it's his age that is an issue for me. He won't re-build and if a re-build is necessary he'll have to go.

No GM of the Islanders is re-building without the permission of ownership. They are going into Year 2 of their new arena. Rebuilds guarantee poor attendance in most markets. The owners will continue to push forward to compete.

Corporates do not have emotional swings and excuses like the everyday fan as to why not to show up. This building needs corporates to succeed beyond just a lofty valuation. Corporates are buying all events beyond the Isles. Having another Isles rebuild is not going to help that.

Fans can walk with their wallet, then ownership will make a change in direction, if necessary.

 

[Throttle]

I'd try to sign Mayfield before the deadline. If he would be willing to sign for 2 - 2.2 mil a year for 3 years, I'd keep him.

Mayfield is closer to $3.5/4M per year over 4 years.

 

[Throttle]

There are no excuses anymore, the team has won, the facilities are state of the art, the ownership seems to genuinely care, etc…

That's just putting you on a somewhat level playing field after 30+ years. Maybe players are just not really that interested in playing for a burbanite team that plays second fiddle to NYR?

 

[MJF]

Fans can walk with their wallet, then ownership will make a change in direction, if necessary.

Something Islanders fans have no qualms about doing.