Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[MJF]

You are misleading with everyone with that stat. Look at his career stats again. His first season (rookie played 66 games only what 19 yr old shot 8.9%. Last year as you mention only shot 7.8% but like I said, besides Nelson everyone had a horrible year last season. Look at the other 4 years for Beau in between 15.9%, 11.5%, 14.6%, 13.8%

Do you think Nelson is shooting 21.7% next year? I don't think so. Take out last year and his career shot pct is 13.2%

Nelson - averages 160 shots per year - Career 14.2% (with that career shooting % last year)
Lee - averages 177 shots per year. I didn't count his first 2 years ( in played 2 game and 22 games respectfully) 14.3% (90% are tip in or rebounds...hardly missing the net from the circle or somewhere).
Palmieri - average 159 shots per year. 12.2% career (didn't get his 1st 2 years - only played 10 and 18 games respectfully.

Beau - averages 130 shoots per year.

Again, I think you are underselling Beau. For whatever reason Trotz always blamed him and Brazal, never Lee, Bailey, Nelson, Pagaeu or any of the vets if they weren't playing well. Maybe with Trotz not always on him, maybe he can relax more and just use his talent and play.

If Beauvillier shooting % was 13% I guarantee you he’d be over20 goals more often. But he misses the net too much.

 

[Wanderson]

It's just the same old story with this roster. There are so many combinations you can try because none of them are what you're looking for on the top line.

Beauvillier Barzal Palmieri
Lee Nelson Bailey
Parise Pageau Wahlstrom
---
Lee Barzal Palmieri
Beauvillier Nelson Bailey
Parise Pageau Wahlstrom
---
Parise Barzal Wahlstrom
Lee Nelson Palmieri
Beauvillier Pageau Bailey
---
etcetera, etcetera...

You have to keep in mind that the Isles got a new head coach. We have no idea what he will be able to do with the squad, yet. I don’t know how many times people bashed the Penguins because their line up wasn’t fancy enough - still they managed to produce and advance far into the playoffs (almost) every season. Lambert might not be any wizard, but the head coach is key for any success. I think another system will benefit our offensive players a lot. Let’s wait and see.

The Isles squad is full of quality players. Yes, the team lack some offensive fire power but overall it’s decent. The depth is there and the defense is one of the best in the league.

 

[Glorydays22]

If Beauvillier shooting % was 13% I guarantee you he’d be over20 goals more often. But he misses the net too much.

whatever... he would have hit 20 goals the in the previous 2 years had there been a full year. He was on course to go over 20 in 19-20 and 20-21. You are picking the stats that you want but I showed you he doesn't shoot as much as guys like Nelson, Lee or even Palms. So his total for goals will obviously be less

But you know what, with all that said, Beau is a important part of the team. Whether he's on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd line. Even if you decide he's a 3rd line at 4M per, I don't think it's a bad thing. Having a two way speedy player with a roster which is old and slow as shit, is a very much needed thing.

 

[PK Cronin]

You have to keep in mind that the Isles got a new head coach. We have no idea what he will be able to do with the squad, yet. I don’t know how many times people bashed the Penguins because their line up wasn’t fancy enough - still they managed to produce and advance far into the playoffs (almost) every season. Lambert might not be any wizard, but the head coach is key for any success. I think another system will benefit our offensive players a lot. Let’s wait and see.

I'm on board, but we've also seen a huge chunk of this lineup for a long time so we have a pretty good basis for guessing the range they'd fall in. We need Lambert to get them at the top end of that range in order for the team to have success. I do think Romanov will make a huge difference on the back end even if he doesn't directly contribute points.

 

[MJF]

whatever... he would have hit 20 goals the in the previous 2 years had there been a full year. He was on course to go over 20 in 19-20 and 20-21. You are picking the stats that you want but I showed you he doesn't shoot as much as guys like Nelson, Lee or even Palms. So his total for goals will obviously be less

But you know what, with all that said, Beau is a important part of the team. Whether he's on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd line. Even if you decide he's a 3rd line at 4M per, I don't think it's a bad thing. Having a two way speedy player with a roster which is old and slow as shit, is a very much needed thing.

I hope for his sake Beauvillier bought a Shooter Tutor, tied it on a net, and spent the summer practicing hitting corners.

 

[Throttle]

Barzal needs to hit 70+ points and should be closer to 80.
Bellows somehow played 45 games last year and had 19 points, so I think a repeat season from him would be fine since I don't want him playing much.
If Parise can get 35 points again that's enough for him.
Wahlstrom is the big one and he needs a 40 point season, 20 goals, 20 assists.

No, in a league with an increase in offense and more open-minded coach, Barzal needs to be a minimum PPG player. That’s his baseline for a $7M center going into a contract year. No more of this 60 point, maybe 70 point nonsense. He did not even crack the top 150 players in Shots. 1 PPG, 1 GWG that is awful.

He either takes the puck to the net to score, uses his line mates correctly, or it’s time to move on and let another team believe it’s all about the wingers.

 

[SI]

If Beauvillier shooting % was 13% I guarantee you he’d be over20 goals more often. But he misses the net too much.

Missing the net is not a shot on goal.

 

[SI]

No, in a league with an increase in offense and more open-minded coach, Barzal needs to be a minimum PPG player. That’s his baseline for a $7M center going into a contract year. No more of this 60 point, maybe 70 point nonsense. He did not even crack the top 150 players in Shots.

He either takes the puck to the net to score, uses his line mates correctly, or it’s time to move on and let another team believe it’s all about the wingers.

In order for the Islanders to be successful - they do not need to be the Panthers. They are not going to out score teams 6-5 7-6.

Last season, saw less structured teams be more successful because of the lack of practices from the contracted schedule. A normal schedule will help teams like the Isles and hurt teams like the Leafs and Oilers

Barzal does NOT need to be a PPG player. he needs to help this team win. He needs to responsible 200’ hockey player committed to the team system and make the PP much better.

I don’t want inflated points from Barzal. I want the team to win. I think Mike’s Zibanjad two years ago, who had a great season point wise and a third of his points were scored against Philly in FOUR games. I don’t want that.

They do not have the personnel to play run and gun hockey and Barzal cannot play run and gun hockey by himself. They need craft goals in the offensive zone and occasionally you’ll get the Barzal goal or setup on the counter.

A 70 point season, leading the team in points, playing the right way on both sides of the ice, and scoring big goals - sign me up.

Suzuki, Keller, Hischier, Thomas are all signed long term for 7.5+ and all 4 are not as good as Barzal. So, your value system is not in line with the market.

 

[MJF]

Missing the net is not a shot on goal.

I know it and you know it. Beauvillier’s shot is quite inaccurate.

 

[Throttle]

In order for the Islanders to be successful - they do not need to be the Panthers. They are not going to out score teams 6-5 7-6.

Last season, saw less structured teams be more successful because of the lack of practices from the contracted schedule. A normal schedule will help teams like the Isles and hurt teams like the Leafs and Oilers

Barzal does NOT need to be a PPG player. he needs to help this team win. He needs to responsible 200’ hockey player committed to the team system and make the PP much better.

I don’t want inflated points from Barzal. I want the team to win. I think Mike’s Zibanjad two years ago, who had a great season point wise and a third of his points were scored against Philly in FOUR games. I don’t want that.

They do not have the personnel to play run and gun hockey and Barzal cannot play run and gun hockey by himself. They need craft goals in the offensive zone and occasionally you’ll get the Barzal goal or setup on the counter.

A 70 point season, leading the team in points, playing the right way on both sides of the ice, and scoring big goals - sign me up.

Suzuki, Keller, Hischier, Thomas are all signed long term for 7.5+ and all 4 are not as good as Barzal. So, your value system is not in line with the market.

Do you think Barzal is re-upping for $7M a season going into his RFA year? No matter his points, he’s going to be seeking $8-9M AAV.

How many games have those players played in comparison? Same with years in the league? Those teams are paying for the hope of future production just like the Isles did. He underperformed year over year and now it’s payday time.

 

[SI]

Do you think Barzal is re-upping for $7M a season going into his RFA year? No matter his points, he’s going to be seeking $8-9M AAV.

How many games have those players played in comparison? Same with years in the league? Those teams are paying for the hope of future production just like the Isles did. He underperformed year over year and now it’s payday time.

No, I don’t but he resigns somewhere in the 8-9.5 range. Again, your value system in not in line with the market.

Barzal has also only played 350 games and he just turned 25. All of those players except Thomas have played less. So, let’s understand that he is not a finished product and there is still more to his game.

I don’t believe it is a good thing to sign Maty now - let him earn his bump in salary. Barzal has a lot to prove this season and will come in very motivated as well will most of the group.

 

[Chardo]

Isn’t that what everyone here wanted?

Exactly.

 

[SI]

I know it and you know it. Beauvillier’s shot is quite inaccurate.

But missing the net has nothing to do with shooting %. I would love to see Beau and Barzal on the same line.

The kid loves to go short side and would love to see him make more moves rather shoot on site

 

[Mike C]

No, I don’t but he resigns somewhere in the 8-9.5 range. Again, your value system in not in line with the market.

Barzal has also only played 350 games and he just turned 25. All of those players except Thomas have played less. So, let’s understand that he is not a finished product and there is still more to his game.

I don’t believe it is a good thing to sign Maty now - let him earn his bump in salary. Barzal has a lot to prove this season and will come in very motivated as well will most of the group.

Awesome post!

 

[Mike C]

The team is solid in goal, on D and down the middle. "If we had 1st round picks we could trade for a winger." Or, we could just see what our 1st round wingers can do (Wahlstrom, Bellows, Holmstrom, and throw in Raty and Dufour).

I'm hoping Barry's "tough love" plus the addition of MacLean to the coaching staff pays dividends for young Ollie this season

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

If Lambert puts Kyle Plamieri, Oliver Wahlstrom and/or Anthony Beauvillier on his line and sticks with it (instead of the sample size stuff Trotz would do) for the full season, Mathew Barzal will have his most productive season....period.

I am confident enough to say this.

I like the odds that Palmieri can build on his second half last season (14 goals/12 assists in last 40 games which is a 29 goal pace) and I am still 100% convinced that Wahlstrom has the most potential as our volume shooter. Anthony is a wild card for me, but I still think his speed works best with Matty.

Now as much as I would like to think a camp would have the three youngsters playing together, I find that unlikely to begin with- so the top line should be Beau/Barzal/Palms to begin with. I like Wahlstrom shooting and getting cleanups from Anders Lee on a Brock Nelson second line anyway, at least until he earns his way up top.

Bailey goes to the third line with Pageau, and I still would look to add one of the remaining free-agents to battle Bellows for the other wing spot. Of those out there, I still lean towards Evan Rodriguez. He showed a little in Pittsburgh, just turned 29 years old and in just under 16 minutes with them last season he managed to put up 3 shots a game on net, plus he added 7 goals on the PP. We are late enough in the offseason, that a 1-year $2-2.5 million max should net him.

I dont mention Zach Parise for a reason. If the Islanders are still looking to get some lengthy ice time for all four lines, then this is where I want the 38-year old veteran. He would add some serious scoring punch on that identity line and force Matt Martin to a rotational role which probably best suits him at this point.

Islanders should also still be able to add a veteran defender (my choice being Ryan Murray) for close to the league minimum as well...

Beauvillier/Barzal/Palmieri
Lee/Nelson/Wahlstrom
Bailey/Pageau/Rodriguez
Parise/Cizikas/Clutterbuck

Martin/Bellows

Pelech/Pulock
Romanov/Dobson
Murray/Mayfield

Salo/Aho

Sorokin/Varlamov

This is probably the best we can do unless the price comes down on TJ Miller or Patrick Kane suddenly wants out........

 

[MJF]

But missing the net has nothing to do with shooting %. I would love to see Beau and Barzal on the same line.

The kid loves to go short side and would love to see him make more moves rather shoot on site

Hitting the goalie in the crest has a lot to do with shooting percentage. Beauvillier does that a lot too.

It’s when Beau tries to pick top corners when he hits glass the most. Not to mention all the times he leads an odd man rush and misses the net.

My point remains, Beau’s has an accuracy problem. He’s not a finisher. If he could get more of his shots on net, he’d have more goals.

 

[danteipp]

Bailey and Beauvillier have no value as of today. If they had, they'd been moved by now, especially after the Kadri thing. Any deal involving them that also makes the Islanders better is wishful thinking and only that.

Of course they can be moved but it will not be in a deal like that. Currently, there are 10 or so teams over the cap and none under so there will have be be some serious dollars moving as the season nears. That means bottom feeders can probably get paid to take on players of similar stature, or get them for free on waivers, so no interest in the likes of Bailey.

I suppose Beau can be moved but it will only be for a player in a similar situation, ie. someone with potential but has never quite lived up to it and is on a multi year deal as well. It'll be a "change of scenery" trade more than anything, and ideally the Islanders want to get out of multi year deals for underperforming players.

Now that Kadri is off the market, Islanders actually have a little cap space to play with and use to their advantage. Maybe they can get a good player off a cap ceiling team at a cut price, or even pick somebody off on waivers?

With the Isles badly needing offense up front, you don't trade anyone until you actually know you are going to return something that fits the team and makes it better.

Just moving out contracts, in order to do so, is what a rebuilding or tanking team does.

While there might have been rumors about Kadri going to the Isles, there was nothing concrete beyond "educated" gueses. We have no idea how close he was or wasn't to signing with the Isles.

Until someone signs, trading Beau or even Bailey would be stupid.

If the Isles are dumpster diving for waiver claims, it should only be for depth or players to stash in the AHL. Anything beyond that is probably a fools errand and unlikely to move the needle.

We will have to agree to disagree on the value of Beau. If Lambert opens up the offense even a little, Beau has a chance to bounce back and be a very productive player.

Now would I move him in the right deal? Of course, I would be willing to trade anyone in the right deal.

I still remember when people were constantly complaining about the Isles being in cap hell and now that isn't necessarily a material issue and, absent a foolish signing, should improve every year.

 

[danteipp]

Hitting the goalie in the crest has a lot to do with shooting percentage. Beauvillier does that a lot too.

It’s when Beau tries to pick top corners when he hits glass the most. Not to mention all the times he leads an odd man rush and misses the net.

My point remains, Beau’s has an accuracy problem. He’s not a finisher. If he could get more of his shots on net, he’d have more goals.

What is amazing, and not in a good way, is that he was a finisher in juniors and showed promise his first few seasons in the NHL.

I am interested to see if with a little less focus on defense and opening up the offense will help him rebound.

I have a feeling that at least a bit of his decline was due to the physical and mental grind of playing in Barry's system.

The key for Lambert will be striking the right balance.

 

[MJF]

What is amazing, and not in a good way, is that he was a finisher in juniors and showed promise his first few seasons in the NHL.

I am interested to see if with a little less focus on defense and opening up the offense will help him rebound.

I have a feeling that at least a bit of his decline was due to the physical and mental grind of playing in Barry's system.

The key for Lambert will be striking the right balance.

I don’t know if it was Trotz’s system wearing him down, but I do think part of Beau’s problem is between his ears. I think he presses a lot and starts thinking about what he’s going to do a second before he shoots.

 

[Mike C]

What is amazing, and not in a good way, is that he was a finisher in juniors and showed promise his first few seasons in the NHL.

I am interested to see if with a little less focus on defense and opening up the offense will help him rebound.

I have a feeling that at least a bit of his decline was due to the physical and mental grind of playing in Barry's system.

The key for Lambert will be striking the right balance.

i'm also 100 percent confident that a loss of confidence for the reasons you mentioned were at play as well

 

[Mike C]

I don’t know if it was Trotz’s system wearing him down, but I do think part of Beau’s problem is between his ears. I think he presses a lot and starts thinking about what he’s going to do a second before he shoots.

in fairness to beau, it's possible Barry was relentless on him and where Wally said he needed that tough love and appreciated it, maybe Tony needs the hug and everything's gonna be OK approach

 

[doublechili]

Lee (31-23-54) - Nelson (39-28-67) - Beauvillier (16-27-43)

If Lee and Nelson are combining for 70 goals, and Beau is on a line with them, Beau is getting more than 27 assists. Just saying.

 

[LeapOnOver]

I hope for his sake Beauvillier bought a Shooter Tutor, tied it on a net, and spent the summer practicing hitting corners.

Think he spent the summer "having fun"

 

[BelovedIsles]

Anyone who doesn't see this offseason (3/4ths into it) as a failure, is rationalizing or deluding themselves. Lou, himself (from the outset) stated that he wanted to bring in a defensive D man (Romanov was a good start), an offensive D man (nothing), and add skill to the forward group (nothing).