Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[IslesNorway]

I keep coming back to the Jets as a logical trade partner. They have high-end forward talent and a glut at LHD. They need balance/depth on their second and third lines, which the Isles can give them in spades.

I was thinking along the following -

Bailey ($5mm AAV for two years, but $3.5mm per in real money) and Beau ($4.15mm AAV for two years)

for

Ehlers ($6mm AAV for three years, $18 million total in real money) and LHD Dillon ($3.9mm for two years, $5.5mm and $4.0mm in real money)

The Isles would only add $750,000 in cap this season. The Jets would save $12.2mm in real money over the life of the contracts.

I am a big fan of Ehlers and think he can be the winger that Barzal needs. He can keep up with Barzal. I try Dillon alongside Dobson first and Romanov alongside Mayfield.

Who needs to add? Do the Isles need to add anything else, like say a second rounder or B-level prospect?

Short of giving up the Isles 2023 first rounder or a prospect like Raty or Dufour, I am willing to discuss whatever needs to be added to get Ehlers and fill those last two holes. Having Ehlers signed for three years is a big plus in my book too.

Thoughts?

Bailey and Beauvillier have no value as of today. If they had, they'd been moved by now, especially after the Kadri thing. Any deal involving them that also makes the Islanders better is wishful thinking and only that.

Of course they can be moved but it will not be in a deal like that. Currently, there are 10 or so teams over the cap and none under so there will have be be some serious dollars moving as the season nears. That means bottom feeders can probably get paid to take on players of similar stature, or get them for free on waivers, so no interest in the likes of Bailey.

I suppose Beau can be moved but it will only be for a player in a similar situation, ie. someone with potential but has never quite lived up to it and is on a multi year deal as well. It'll be a "change of scenery" trade more than anything, and ideally the Islanders want to get out of multi year deals for underperforming players.

Now that Kadri is off the market, Islanders actually have a little cap space to play with and use to their advantage. Maybe they can get a good player off a cap ceiling team at a cut price, or even pick somebody off on waivers?

 

[IslandersFan17]

So, transactions for the sake of transactions. Just because.

Yes signing players or making trades to improve the roster, just for the sake of oh idk improving the roster. Holy shit you can’t be serious

 

[JPIsles18]

Yes signing players or making trades to improve the roster, just for the sake of oh idk improving the roster. Holy shit you can’t be serious

The goal should always be to win the Stanley Cup. This typically means squeezing the most amount of value of the allotted cap space. UFA signings are typically bad bets. Isles fans are perpetually focused on UFAs not signing here. However, over the last decade, you'd be hard pressed to make a list of 10 good UFA signings. The best teams typically don't splurge in the UFA pool. The best teams nibble on the fringe market to uncover undervalued players. You typically get a Ladd type contract when you go big game hunting in the UFA market. Once in a while, you get a player like Panarin and JG in UFA. Those are the guys you go after. These are needle movers. Even with their high numbers, you get your money's worth. Panarin wanted to go to the NYR and the Isles had no shot. However, JG would've signed with the Isles had the Isles had the cap space. Had the Isles not splurged on middle 6 forwards like Palmieri, JGP, Bailey, etc, they could have had JG. I strongly believe that.

As far as trades go, you need assets. You either need a prospect pool worth a damn or cap space again. The Isles have neither. If you evaluate the Isles trading deadline history, they gave up 1st round picks in back to back seasons for Palmieri/Zajac and JGP. All were pending UFAs. It's hard to argue that the trades were bad because the Isles made runs in both seasons. However, once you give up that draft capital, there is a strong inclination to re-sign these players, and the Isles did. Unfortunately, both were signed to almost immovable contracts. When the Lightning trade 1st round picks at the deadline they trade for good middle 6 forwards that are cost-controlled for 2-3 years (Coleman, Hagel, etc). The problem is Lou does not view cap space as an asset. He doesn't seem to understand that when you give up significant assets for middle 6 forward and then give them "market" value, he's actually hurting the team in the long run.

So there are ways to "improve" the team without actually improving them. Lou has mastered this with a series of lateral moves and not respecting cap space as an asset. Again, the goal is to win the Stanley cup. It's not to make the playoffs. It's not to make the Eastern Conference Finals. The Lou apologists will point to these accomplishments. When you actually micro dissect his work, he hasn't been very good. The last thing he should be doing is more of this make a transaction for the sake of transaction.

 

[MYIslanders]

The continued hard push to move Beau is glaring evidence to me that a LOT of people on here don’t appreciate damn good hockey players, and likely don’t even know what they’re looking at.

 

[MJF]

Interesting. I don't know why, but it feels like Pasta would be a good fit for the Kings and I could definitely see him in LA. If the Kings young centers develop this season, with Kopitar's contract up in two years (and $10 million off the books), Pasta might be just what they need.

I feel like Pasta would be a good fit for US. An elite forward entering his age 26 season who wants to leave his current team? I'd move mountains to get him to the Island.

Bailey and Beauvillier have no value as of today. If they had, they'd been moved by now, especially after the Kadri thing. Any deal involving them that also makes the Islanders better is wishful thinking and only that.

Well at least SOMEBODY here gets it!

 

[leeroggy]

The continued hard push to move Beau is glaring evidence to me that a LOT of people on here don’t appreciate damn good hockey players, and likely don’t even know what they’re looking at.

That's what a HOCKEY trade is about . . good player for good player to adjust the makeup of a TEAM

Before Romanov we were talking about Beau for Dunn, as an example.

I guess no one realized how good Gretzky was, or Messier, or Phil Esposito, or Brad Park or the hundred other Hall of Famers that were traded in their careers.

 

[Mike C]

The continued hard push to move Beau is glaring evidence to me that a LOT of people on here don’t appreciate damn good hockey players, and likely don’t even know what they’re looking at.

I looked at lazy pass after lazy pass last season, turnover after turnover, flat shots, and a guy who can't even reach 40 points. Talent does not equal a good player. Performance does

 

[PK Cronin]

Bailey and Beauvillier have no value as of today. If they had, they'd been moved by now, especially after the Kadri thing. Any deal involving them that also makes the Islanders better is wishful thinking and only that.

Of course they can be moved but it will not be in a deal like that. Currently, there are 10 or so teams over the cap and none under so there will have be be some serious dollars moving as the season nears. That means bottom feeders can probably get paid to take on players of similar stature, or get them for free on waivers, so no interest in the likes of Bailey.

I suppose Beau can be moved but it will only be for a player in a similar situation, ie. someone with potential but has never quite lived up to it and is on a multi year deal as well. It'll be a "change of scenery" trade more than anything, and ideally the Islanders want to get out of multi year deals for underperforming players.

Now that Kadri is off the market, Islanders actually have a little cap space to play with and use to their advantage. Maybe they can get a good player off a cap ceiling team at a cut price, or even pick somebody off on waivers?

Too often people assign value like it's a binary when it's not. It fluctuates not only based on the players themselves, but also what other teams are doing (like you mention with teams being over the salary cap). In terms of Kadri, he's an upgrade on Beauvillier or Bailey, but the question is whether he's an upgrade worth the cost of dealing either Beauvillier or Bailey in the current market. I think Lamoriello made the right decision on this one and that those players might see their value go back up once the market changes a little bit (say by the deadline). This offseason has been an anomaly it seems, where teams have been less willing to help other teams clear space for big moves.

What Kadri would bring to the table, on a deal that will age terribly, just isn't worth the cost. I'm happier with rolling the same team out there and trying to grab someone at the deadline or selling some pieces at the deadline if the team isn't in contention. Maybe they do grab someone like you're talking about too, but there's still not much room on the roster itself for that without moving bodies out.

 

[MJF]

Too often people assign value like it's a binary when it's not. It fluctuates not only based on the players themselves, but also what other teams are doing (like you mention with teams being over the salary cap). In terms of Kadri, he's an upgrade on Beauvillier or Bailey, but the question is whether he's an upgrade worth the cost of dealing either Beauvillier or Bailey in the current market. I think Lamoriello made the right decision on this one and that those players might see their value go back up once the market changes a little bit (say by the deadline). This offseason has been an anomaly it seems, where teams have been less willing to help other teams clear space for big moves.

What Kadri would bring to the table, on a deal that will age terribly, just isn't worth the cost. I'm happier with rolling the same team out there and trying to grab someone at the deadline or selling some pieces at the deadline if the team isn't in contention. Maybe they do grab someone like you're talking about too, but there's still not much room on the roster itself for that without moving bodies out.

Bailey's other issues detract from his TODAY's value. He'll be 33 years old before the season starts, he's coming off a 44 point season and he has 2 years left on a deal with a $5M cap hit (I don't care how much actual cash he's owed).

How much money are you willing to bet on Josh Bailey notching a 50 point season during his remaining 2 years?

That's why Josh Bailey has no value as a stand alone asset.

 

[doublechili]

The continued hard push to move Beau is glaring evidence to me that a LOT of people on here don’t appreciate damn good hockey players, and likely don’t even know what they’re looking at.

It's the VGK Syndrome. Or worse, Milbury. Do something!!

 

[PK Cronin]

Bailey's other issues detract from his TODAY's value. He'll be 33 years old before the season starts, he's coming off a 44 point season and he has 2 years left on a deal with a $5M cap hit (I don't care how much actual cash he's owed).

How much money are you willing to bet on Josh Bailey notching a 50 point season during his remaining 2 years?

That's why Josh Bailey has no value as a stand alone asset.

I don't bet on sports, but I think he's going to hit 50 points this season unless there's a real shakeup with the roster. I also don't think he needs to hit 50 to be in line with other contracts around the league.

 

[xECK29x]

The continued hard push to move Beau is glaring evidence to me that a LOT of people on here don’t appreciate damn good hockey players, and likely don’t even know what they’re looking at.

Probably the same bunch that will be obsessed with the 7th D/13th forward.

 

[Throttle]

So the next argument is, Lou should have never signed any players in an attempt to win because that would squeeze the available cap space if/when some premium UFA is available (and agin, hope, pray, they have no other options that by default they sign with NYI).

 

[GOLFWANG]

People want to trade Beau to get better not to just trade him.

Also still waiting for someone to say it's his breakout season this year.

 

[Mike C]

Probably the same bunch that will be obsessed with the 7th D/13th forward.

Especially 6 if and 7 wind up being Greene and the Big Z

 

[Thrasymachus]

At this point I am just going to see where it goes. Clearly insiders dont have a clue.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the lineup we roll with, and then if we are somehow in the hunt (possible, but I am not exactly enthused by this offseason or last season's performance), then we will add during TDL.

 

[Mike C]

At this point I am just going to see where it goes. Clearly insiders dont have a clue.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the lineup we roll with, and then if we are somehow in the hunt (possible, but I am not exactly enthused by this offseason or last season's performance), then we will add during TDL.

Very sensible and simply put synopsis!

 

[MJF]

I don't bet on sports, but I think he's going to hit 50 points this season unless there's a real shakeup with the roster. I also don't think he needs to hit 50 to be in line with other contracts around the league.

Do those other contracts Bailey's in line with belong to players who are 33 years old?

For Bailey to break 50 points this year he would have to get more power play time, really more time on ice in general. Frankly he doesn't drive power play scoring like he used to, a low bar to clear considering our power play hasn't been top half of the league in forever.

 

[Mike C]

People want to trade Beau to get better not to just trade him.

Also still waiting for someone to say it's his breakout season this year.

Every year is his breakout season. Some players are as good as they are ever gonna get and that might be ok but the "expections" are never met

Some players benefit from a change of scenery and a fresh start and flourish elsewhere for a myriad of reasons, some explainable and some not.

 

[Mike C]

Do those other contracts Bailey's in line with belong to players who are 33 years old?

For Bailey to break 50 points this year he would have to get more power play time, really more time on ice in general. Frankly he doesn't drive power play scoring like he used to, a low bar to clear considering our power play hasn't been top half of the league in forever.

Plus as someone (might have been you) posted weeks back, I think many will be disappointed if they think the new voice will open the offense to resemble last year's Avs or the 80s Oilers

I suspect a close version of what we've seen with Barry with some possible tweaks. As that post I refer to said, this roster simply is not good enough to make major offensive changes as it stands this moment

 

[isles55]

Do those other contracts Bailey's in line with belong to players who are 33 years old?

For Bailey to break 50 points this year he would have to get more power play time, really more time on ice in general. Frankly he doesn't drive power play scoring like he used to, a low bar to clear considering our power play hasn't been top half of the league in forever.

They were 12th last season.

 

[Thrasymachus]

I am optimistic Lane "the hair" Lambert will let the boys play just a teensy bit more run and gun. Our anemic offense I do think is not entirely due to a dearth of offensive talent... Trotz' system definitely was a low scoring one, and with the modern NHL, that almost feels like swimming against the current.

Loved Trotz of course and think he is a great coach. Better than Lambert in all likelihood, but the fresh perspective in the lockeroom (tempered by the influence of Trotz + familiarity with the team) should hopefully give the Islanders a much needed shot in the arm. I want to see more of the Barzal from his rookie season, where he had a fire under his butt and was regularly getting hat tricks.

 

[PK Cronin]

Do those other contracts Bailey's in line with belong to players who are 33 years old?

For Bailey to break 50 points this year he would have to get more power play time, really more time on ice in general. Frankly he doesn't drive power play scoring like he used to, a low bar to clear considering our power play hasn't been top half of the league in forever.

If you mean 33 specifically, not many, but there are quite a few guys ~30 who are similar.

He was six points shy of 50 last season and missed eight games, so I really don't think much needs to change for him to hit that mark. I'm hoping for a little more offense from the team as a whole, which might be foolish, but we'll see.

 

[Glorydays22]

The continued hard push to move Beau is glaring evidence to me that a LOT of people on here don’t appreciate damn good hockey players, and likely don’t even know what they’re looking at.

Thank you, at least someone gets it. Beau is not the issue. It's the older guys that we are stuck with.

 

[MJF]

They were 12th last season.

Noted.

The continued hard push to move Beau is glaring evidence to me that a LOT of people on here don’t appreciate damn good hockey players, and likely don’t even know what they’re looking at.

Beauvillier is not a finisher.