Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[crashthenet]

The strategy is to not sign middle six forwards for both much too much money AND for much too long. You can stomach one or the other and a contract remains moveable, but time and time again Lou gives out deals that feature both. Look at how many awful contracts the isles have for how they got in to this situation in the first place.

You could say "any contract is moveable when Andrew Ladd gets traded." Of course, if you're willing to trade every draft pick you have and completely mortgage your future. And Lou has also done that. Just check out our bustling farm system for proof. At some point the isles need to add someone, anyone, on an ELC who can contribute at a league average rate to their current core to have any chance of competing. Not massively overpaying their bottom 9 forwards would also help.

Good teams with good management spend near the cap but have enough moveable assets in the form of quality prospects or NHL players on decent deals that they can maneuver around that and still add quality talent year after year.

I wouldn't even consider CBJ "well run" but when the question becomes-"are you willing to trade Oliver bjorkstrand to have Johnny gaudreau and Patrick Laine?" If you don't smash YES as fast as humanly possible, well, then you're probably Lou lamoriello.

How many awful contracts do they have?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I've been travelling in Europe and missed the non news, Kadri at 7 x 7 would have been good in the present, but there is no doubt the latter part of that deal would not age well. Isles may need to pivot. To me this team is assembled like a deck of hockey cards, not so much as a team yet. Lou will be on the hot seat this year, unless he thinks the team just had an odd season, and will bounce back this year, running it back is a risk. We will see, but new coaching, it it is as simple as making a coaching change and adding Romanov. Then Lou is a better GM than I have given him credit for. I am not sure this is enough to vastly improve on last season, we shall see I guess.

 

[seabass45]

More cracks showing

That’s unusual. Normally Lous thing is not announcing until the last second, now they’re announcing a guy who didn’t actually sign?

 

[SI90]

More cracks showing

Weird as hell. Did lambert hire him but Lou didn’t draw up the contract? WTF

 

[danteipp]

I keep coming back to the Jets as a logical trade partner. They have high-end forward talent and a glut at LHD. They need balance/depth on their second and third lines, which the Isles can give them in spades.

I was thinking along the following -

Bailey ($5mm AAV for two years, but $3.5mm per in real money) and Beau ($4.15mm AAV for two years)

for

Ehlers ($6mm AAV for three years, $18 million total in real money) and LHD Dillon ($3.9mm for two years, $5.5mm and $4.0mm in real money)

The Isles would only add $750,000 in cap this season. The Jets would save $12.2mm in real money over the life of the contracts.

I am a big fan of Ehlers and think he can be the winger that Barzal needs. He can keep up with Barzal. I try Dillon alongside Dobson first and Romanov alongside Mayfield.

Who needs to add? Do the Isles need to add anything else, like say a second rounder or B-level prospect?

Short of giving up the Isles 2023 first rounder or a prospect like Raty or Dufour, I am willing to discuss whatever needs to be added to get Ehlers and fill those last two holes. Having Ehlers signed for three years is a big plus in my book too.

Thoughts?

 

[doublechili]

I keep coming back to the Jets as a logical trade partner. They have high-end forward talent and a glut at LHD. They need balance/depth on their second and third lines, which the Isles can give them in spades.

I was thinking along the following -

Bailey ($5mm AAV for two years, but $3.5mm per in real money) and Beau ($4.15mm AAV for two years)

for

Ehlers ($6mm AAV for three years, $18 million total in real money) and LHD Dillon ($3.9mm for two years, $5.5mm and $4.0mm in real money)

The Isles would only add $750,000 in cap this season. The Jets would save $12.2mm in real money over the life of the contracts.

I am a big fan of Ehlers and think he can be the winger that Barzal needs. He can keep up with Barzal. I try Dillon alongside Dobson first and Romanov alongside Mayfield.

Who needs to add? Do the Isles need to add anything else, like say a second rounder or B-level prospect?

Short of giving up the Isles 2023 first rounder or a prospect like Raty or Dufour, I am willing to discuss whatever needs to be added to get Ehlers and fill those last two holes. Having Ehlers signed for three years is a big plus in my book too.

Thoughts?

IDK that I see WPG doing that. Ehlers seems like by far the best player in the deal and they really have no reason to trade him.

 

[danteipp]

IDK that I see WPG doing that. Ehlers seems like by far the best player in the deal and they really have no reason to trade him.

I agree that he is the best player in the deal, hence why I am trying to determine what would need to be added to balance out any trade.

I think the key is how they view Beauvillier. Do they see unlocked offensive potential in him, to where he can bridge the gap (at least partially) on what they lose in Ehlers? Or do they think that they can move him back to center (his position in juniors) and make him a JGP-type player?

The Jets definitely get an upgrade for their second/third line in Bailey and they offload Dillon (assuming he really is the odd man out on defense). Dillon making $5.5mm in real money is a lot to pay a guy who is projecting as their 6th/7th.

Of course if there is another LHD that they want to move, that is fine and make the switch, but it seems like the Jets fans keep bringing up Dillon as the player they prefer to move.

All I know is that the Jets keep failing in the playoffs so, at some point, they have to move someone from the core to try and rebalance a bit.

 

[seafoam]

WPG would want Pulock for Ehlers.

Maybe Bailey or Beauvillier + Pulock for Ehlers + Dillon

 

[TeamKidd]

WPG would want Pulock for Ehlers.

Maybe Bailey or Beauvillier + Pulock for Ehlers + Dillon

I've been told by reputable sources on this board that we cannot trade pulock

 

[SI]

Weird as hell. Did lambert hire him but Lou didn’t draw up the contract? WTF

Seems like allegations came to light -

Here is an article

 

[The Real JT]

I keep coming back to the Jets as a logical trade partner. They have high-end forward talent and a glut at LHD. They need balance/depth on their second and third lines, which the Isles can give them in spades.

I was thinking along the following -

Bailey ($5mm AAV for two years, but $3.5mm per in real money) and Beau ($4.15mm AAV for two years)

for

Ehlers ($6mm AAV for three years, $18 million total in real money) and LHD Dillon ($3.9mm for two years, $5.5mm and $4.0mm in real money)

The Isles would only add $750,000 in cap this season. The Jets would save $12.2mm in real money over the life of the contracts.

I am a big fan of Ehlers and think he can be the winger that Barzal needs. He can keep up with Barzal. I try Dillon alongside Dobson first and Romanov alongside Mayfield.

Who needs to add? Do the Isles need to add anything else, like say a second rounder or B-level prospect?

Short of giving up the Isles 2023 first rounder or a prospect like Raty or Dufour, I am willing to discuss whatever needs to be added to get Ehlers and fill those last two holes. Having Ehlers signed for three years is a big plus in my book too.

Thoughts?

The three items you don’t want to give up are, for the most part, the only ones they’d ask for.

 

[Throttle]

Seems like allegations came to light -

Here is an article

Eyebrows were raised last week when Michigan alum Brian Wiseman (1990-94) resigned as assistant coach of the New York Islanders, just 23 days after taking the position.
Details Emerge on Michigan's 'Toxic Culture'

This is a 'staff' written post, but they are stating he resigned. So, Isles announce, he was working on a contract most likely, and in the due diligence they find something out they don't like. They tell him to resign or he does it on his own.

 

[SI90]

Seems like allegations came to light -

Here is an article

Wow. Didn’t know that. He was a acquitted but we all know that doesn’t mean anything. Especially 30 years ago. Sucks if he’s innocent but in todays climate I get why organizations would stay away from him and any controversy.

 

[danteipp]

The three items you don’t want to give up are, for the most part, the only ones they’d ask for.

I don't know, the Jets are in win-now mode given that they only have PLD for a couple more seasons, so they need to make a hockey trade more than just adding futures. As PLD gets closer to free agency, they can always deal him later for picks and prospects.

What would you give up? What balances it out?

Ehlers is the best player in the trade, but I think Beau and Bailey are far better than Dillon and it is going to be tough to move his cap hit and real money this season. Are any teams lining up to pay Dillon $5.5 million this year?

I would probably be willing to include the Isles 2024 first rounder, but then that is an overpay with Beau and Bailey also included.

A compromise could be trading Beau+ to Montreal for the Panthers 2023 first (which will presumably be a later first), then flipping that draft pick and Bailey for Ehlers and Dillon. Assuming the rumors are true that Montreal would like to add Beau.

I should have added that I would even think about trading Wahlstrom in the right package for Ehlers. But then that probably means keeping Bailey since he can play RW and the Jets would need to retain on Dillon to balance cap hits.

 

[seabass45]

I agree that he is the best player in the deal, hence why I am trying to determine what would need to be added to balance out any trade.

I think the key is how they view Beauvillier. Do they see unlocked offensive potential in him, to where he can bridge the gap (at least partially) on what they lose in Ehlers? Or do they think that they can move him back to center (his position in juniors) and make him a JGP-type player?

The Jets definitely get an upgrade for their second/third line in Bailey and they offload Dillon (assuming he really is the odd man out on defense). Dillon making $5.5mm in real money is a lot to pay a guy who is projecting as their 6th/7th.

Of course if there is another LHD that they want to move, that is fine and make the switch, but it seems like the Jets fans keep bringing up Dillon as the player they prefer to move.

All I know is that the Jets keep failing in the playoffs so, at some point, they have to move someone from the core to try and rebalance a bit.

Ehlers has been close to a point per game the last few seasons. We’re not getting him for the two guys we constantly talk about dumping. They’d counter with Bailey for Dillon, a simple trade that sort of solves both teams needs, if you’re of the belief that Salo won’t be able to handle regular duty.

 

[danteipp]

Ehlers has been close to a point per game the last few seasons. We’re not getting him for the two guys we constantly talk about dumping. They’d counter with Bailey for Dillon, a simple trade that sort of solves both teams needs, if you’re of the belief that Salo won’t be able to handle regular duty.

Bailey for Dillon isn't enough from the Jets side, especially in this landscape.

Dillon makes more real money than Bailey, few teams can fit him under their cap (at least teams that would be looking to both compete and add him) and, if he is the odd man out on the Jets defense, he doesn't help them now anyway.

Bailey for Dillon also doesn't help the Isles near enough if they cannot get a forward in return or in another deal. It weakens the Isles forwards too much with minimal improvement on defense.

 

[danteipp]

The problem for the Jets is that they haven't done anything in the playoffs since what, 2017-18?

Sure they have some high-end talent, but they have guys who are close to aging out (Wheeler), walking soon (PLD) and they lost Copp and presumably Stasny if/when he signs elsewhere.

They have some prospects that are on the way, so I don't necessarily think they need to make a trade built around picks and prospects, but their third and fourth lines will probably be a mix of JAGs like Lowry, Appleton, Morgan Barron, Toninato, Harkins,etc.

They have almost no secondary scoring. The third and fourth lines are abysmal. And if a player like Scheifle gets hurt, they are cooked.

There is a point where they need to reallocate assets by dealing from a strength to fill a weakness, or they can just keep failing until their core departs/ages out and start a rebuild.

Sometimes you have to deal a player who might get more points 1:1 (especially in a system that emphasizes it and against weaker competition out West), for several players that fill multiple needs and add depth and balance overall.

I don't know what the trade would be, but both teams strengths and weaknesses match up very well. It is just a matter of figuring out what fits in terms of skill AND $$$ for both.

 

[Chardo]

Sometimes you have to call it like it is. An absolute failure (so far) by our GM.

I already listed SEVERAL free-agent signings and a couple of trades where players were acquired (sign or trade) whose contracts were WORSE and have similar value production wise to Josh Bailey and certainly didnt have the youth and upside of Anthony Beauvillier.

Bailey is by all case and purposes a 50 point producer who can still help teams in the middle six and on special teams. His 2 years and 10 million AAV is not bad enough that he couldn't have been moved with nothing of value coming back and purely as a cap dump- especially when only 7 million cash is owed to him.

Beauvillier just turned 25 this summer and still has enough upside where his 2/8.2 million contract is also attractive enough where a decent asset should have been able to be retained and that space cleared as well.

For a team in "win now" mode; trading Varlamov also should have been considered earlier in the offseason when the market was heavy on net minders and there were decent backups available that we could have replaced him with; using the cap space (3-4 million) to also upgrade the forward groups. He was CLEARLY our best trade chip, but Lou didn't even consider it, even when the return likely would have been immense.

Now, I for one am glad he didn't clear the space for Kadri, which at 7x7 is something I had no interest in; but it is inexcusable for a team that is supposedly trying to "go for it" with the same core, not to make moves to increase that possibility.

And it isn't just about the offseason, some of these moves could have been done at the last deadline too and yet he did nothing there as well...

No more excuses, he is the GM and has so far failed miserably....period

It's semicolon, until we see how this roster actually performs.

 

[seabass45]

Bailey for Dillon isn't enough from the Jets side, especially in this landscape.

Dillon makes more real money than Bailey, few teams can fit him under their cap (at least teams that would be looking to both compete and add him) and, if he is the odd man out on the Jets defense, he doesn't help them now anyway.

Bailey for Dillon also doesn't help the Isles near enough if they cannot get a forward in return or in another deal. It weakens the Isles forwards too much with minimal improvement on defense.

I mentioned it bc Jets fans on the trade board seemed agreeable to it. I personally wouldn’t do it, would rather see what Salo can do.

 

[seabass45]

Keep an eye on this. If Pasta stays, he must really like Boston, bc things aren’t looking good over there. Last dance for a bunch of guys and they’re not the Bulls.

 

[Duanesutter12]

So, young Rangers’ fans weren’t eligible for this deal?

I can't verify that because I have never been to a Rangers game in the Garden in my life. I want to say Blue seats were $8 at the time or $4 with the discount.

 

[danteipp]

I mentioned it bc Jets fans on the trade board seemed agreeable to it. I personally wouldn’t do it, would rather see what Salo can do.

I am sure they are, it is a good trade for them. Moving a player that might not have a spot in their active lineup every game (and making $5.5 million this season) for a player who can play on their second or third line is a solid upgrade.

That said, if the Isles did land a top forward elsewhere, it could be a viable trade. But even then, I think that the Jets would need to add a sweetener. Not too much, maybe say a third rounder, just to offset the Isles taking on $2.5 million in real money.

 

[danteipp]

Keep an eye on this. If Pasta stays, he must really like Boston, bc things aren’t looking good over there. Last dance for a bunch of guys and they’re not the Bulls.

Interesting. I don't know why, but it feels like Pasta would be a good fit for the Kings and I could definitely see him in LA. If the Kings young centers develop this season, with Kopitar's contract up in two years (and $10 million off the books), Pasta might be just what they need.

 

[LeapOnOver]

While I haven't been happy with Lou not landing someone, I'm not going to fault him for paying assets to move out salary in the hopes that one of the UFA's would sign here. I'd rather that UFA say they would consider us and then shuffle the players, like LL tried to do. Maybe I'd be a little bit more sore if it was someone better than Kadri, but I'm not too upset about this. This season will determine who stays, who goes, rebuild, no rebuild, trade deadline buying selling etc. It's going to be an "answer my questions" season.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Except that with this team, we made the conference final twice and most of us here (as well as the "experts") believed that we were going to be in the top 3 in our division last season.

We lost Toews and Leddy on defense, but Dobson improved a lot last season and it looks like he'll be better than either of them.

As for the attack, it's exactly the same group. Adding an elite forward would have been good, no doubt, but several of our forwards should bounce back next season after a difficult season. I am thinking especially of Beauvillier, Walhstrom, Palmieri, Pageau (who had a very slow start last season). Even Barzal can do better.

And in goal, we have in Sorokin a goalkeeper who is the top 5 in the league.

So to sum up, with this same group of players, everyone saw us high last season and in less than a year, this group has become quite mediocre with not much to look forward to? ?

All of that is correct. I completely understand rationalizing this offseason (if it remains on this pathway). Despite such, this team has trouble to score, doesn't have a HOF coach, and the blue-collar approach has worn a generally older team down. They don't play in a bubble, many teams in the East have improved (even the bottom feeders), a WC spot is realistic.