Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

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Sheva7

Work Hahd Play Smaht
Oct 11, 2011
3,422
452
Peeps need to get off Josh' nuts.

2 years and 10 million left (with only 7 million cash owed) is NOT a bloated contract or one that should be considered especially hard to move.

I repeat, Josh Bailey is about as close as a sure-thing 50-point producer there is in the NHL and can still help in most teams' middle six and special team units....

There have been a dozen or so WORSE signings/traded players who have been acquired than Josh freaking Bailey. Hell it wouldn't be a hard argument to make that signing Kadri to 7x7, 49 MILLION (just yesterday) is a much worse deal than Bailey for 2x5 with only 7 owed to him; especially considering Kadri's similar point production in his career prior to the single 2021-22 season and their ages...

Lou waited too long (hell, there were even reports he wasn't even on the market) and now OF COURSE it is much harder to move him with cap space at a premium across the league...

Another failure by our GM...
Dude I don't get why you're so surprised.

Bailey is over 30, doesn't shoot, score or drive play...and his cap hit is 5M. Players signed in free agency do at least one of those things better than Josh.

Given the above, plus the fact that cap space is King, it shouldn't surprise you that Bailey is still an Islander.
 

MJF

Hope is not a strategy
Sep 6, 2003
27,390
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NYC
Peeps need to get off Josh' nuts.

2 years and 10 million left (with only 7 million cash owed) is NOT a bloated contract or one that should be considered especially hard to move.

I repeat, Josh Bailey is about as close as a sure-thing 50-point producer there is in the NHL and can still help in most teams' middle six and special team units....

There have been a dozen or so WORSE signings/traded players who have been acquired than Josh freaking Bailey. Hell it wouldn't be a hard argument to make that signing Kadri to 7x7, 49 MILLION (just yesterday) is a much worse deal than Bailey for 2x5 with only 7 owed to him; especially considering Kadri's similar point production in his career prior to the single 2021-22 season and their ages...

Lou waited too long (hell, there were even reports he wasn't even on the market) and now OF COURSE it is much harder to move him with cap space at a premium across the league...

Another failure by our GM...
The proof is in the pudding. This guaranteed 50 point guy has been available since summer of 2021 with no takers. You get back to me when another team is willing to take Bailey without a sweetener involved. Until then I'm not going to keep engaging you in this nonsense.
 

TheWhiteWhale30

Registered User
Dec 3, 2007
3,876
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If Friedman is right, I think it removes the Dobson bridge approach.
My revised guess is that it's a Quinn Hughes type contract.... 6x7.85
All I know is if this kid gets near 8M per he better understand 50 pts is just the start. Needs to be better defensively and be looking at 60+ points. I know he is young and can improve but he seemed to have a bit of luck last year on top of his good play. I think 50 will be tough to replicate next season. In general though I do see him being able to do that consistently
 

SayItAintSoJohnny

Registered User
Jun 30, 2018
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Dude I don't get why you're so surprised.

Bailey is over 30, doesn't shoot, score or drive play...and his cap hit is 5M. Players signed in free agency do at least one of those things better than Josh.

Given the above, plus the fact that cap space is King, it shouldn't surprise you that Bailey is still an Islander.
Actually it surprises me immensely he wasn't moved earlier in the offseason. I repeat, there have been at least a dozen players moved with similar status or worse contracts/worse production....
 

IslandersFan17

Registered User
Jun 8, 2011
5,799
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Long Island
So, now Isles fans are complaining they didn't overpay for an 'expensive' signing because the GM didn't want to give away assets just to create space. But, but, but he overpaid everyone else so that's why they couldn't fit Kadri, JG, etc. Uh-huh.

Just wait for that $7M 60 point center (even at 80pts) is taking up $9M+ cap hit. Ha!
It’s not that he didn’t overpay for Kadri, it’s that he sat on his f***ing hands since the draft. Plenty of opportunities to sign some players or make some moves, but his ego seems to get in the way. Was solely focused on JG and nothing. Apparently was invested in Kadri and came away with nothing.

All while other teams are improving. It’s a bad look that this man clearly doesn’t know how to handle multiple tasks at once.
 

The Real JT

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss. :(
Jul 2, 2018
8,158
7,776
Connecticut
That and Penn Station were horrific. We would take the train in from Oyster Bay (or mostly syosset) for Knicks games. Of course, we’d buy blue seats (for half off with a passing report card) and then be sitting courtside by the end of the 1st quarter. We would always miss the most reasonable train back home and be stuck in Penn Station until like 3:00 in the morning. Man, the s**t you would see! And today I wonder---- what the hell were my parents thinking?? I don't let my son fart without asking me but back in the 80's you could be like "I'm going to California mom, I'll be back in a month" and she'd reply "ok honey be careful"!
So, young Rangers’ fans weren’t eligible for this deal?
 
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SayItAintSoJohnny

Registered User
Jun 30, 2018
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The proof is in the pudding. This guaranteed 50 point guy has been available since summer of 2021 with no takers. You get back to me when another team is willing to take Bailey without a sweetener involved. Until then I'm not going to keep engaging you in this nonsense.
What proof? You have ZERO idea how actively he has been shopped. Conversely, there have been reports he wasn't even being shopped earlier this offseason and I repeat there have been a dozen or so similar types moved/signed since.

Josh Bailey has his warts, sure; but it should not have been a hard contract to move. And I have repeatedly said that it could have been a "sweetner" going either direction, but nothing of any real value.....

And to use words like "bloated contract" and all that nonsense is just silly talk...

Face it, Lou made little to no effort and failed miserably...
 

GOLFWANG

Registered User
Jul 20, 2007
4,470
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I think Lou might have been scared to trade away Bailey or Beau without something in return as he didn't know if Kadri and Gadreau would be available or interested until It was most likely too late. This free agency has been different as a lot of teams are towards the cap or above the cap (RFA's aren't getting announced). If Lou traded Bailey or Beau but didn't have any real plans of replacing them, then our team would just be without a top 6 player. Besides Gadreau and Kadri who went to free agency that was really a top 6 forward. So to move a player now it would maybe cost us assets and Lou is smart enough not to do that.
 
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mm11

Registered User
Jan 26, 2005
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I think Lou might have been scared to trade away Bailey or Beau without something in return as he didn't know if Kadri and Gadreau would be available or interested until It was most likely too late. This free agency has been different as a lot of teams are towards the cap or above the cap (RFA's aren't getting announced). If Lou traded Bailey or Beau but didn't have any real plans of replacing them, then our team would just be without a top 6 player. Besides Gadreau and Kadri who went to free agency that was really a top 6 forward. So to move a player now it would maybe cost us assets and Lou is smart enough not to do that.
I don't think Lou is scared of anything personally. Think the man believes he has a solid team that underachieved with about 11 million in cap space.
 

MJF

Hope is not a strategy
Sep 6, 2003
27,390
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NYC
I don't think Lou is scared of anything personally. Think the man believes he has a solid team that underachieved with about 11 million in cap space.
I agree with your statement.

I simply disagree with Lou's premise.
 
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GOLFWANG

Registered User
Jul 20, 2007
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I don't think Lou is scared of anything personally. Think the man believes he has a solid team that underachieved with about 11 million in cap space.
I mean they did look better towards the end of the year and looked decent with Lambert as coach. Maybe the coach change and the boost from last year without covid or being away for 13 straight games would make us into a playoff team again. I also think our d improved which will lead to less time in our zone and better breakouts and if Varly looks better out of the gate and Sorokin continues to improve then we should be a playoff team.

However, I dont think we are cup team but you never know until you get there.

Also, hopefully some decent PTO's to push these guys in camp.
 

SayItAintSoJohnny

Registered User
Jun 30, 2018
2,241
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I think Lou might have been scared to trade away Bailey or Beau without something in return as he didn't know if Kadri and Gadreau would be available or interested until It was most likely too late. This free agency has been different as a lot of teams are towards the cap or above the cap (RFA's aren't getting announced). If Lou traded Bailey or Beau but didn't have any real plans of replacing them, then our team would just be without a top 6 player. Besides Gadreau and Kadri who went to free agency that was really a top 6 forward. So to move a player now it would maybe cost us assets and Lou is smart enough not to do that.
This is a much more likely scenario. But it also shows how inept he is at having a set of different options and plans and putting us in better negotiating positions...

Cap space could have been had at the deadline and earlier in the offseason had he made more plans than simply putting it all on JG and then later (which made clearing cap space much harder) on Kadri.

He seems past his prime and only capable of singular thinking, which tends to lead to an overpay when/if he winds up making a move or simply not making any at all because he put all his eggs in a single basket.

It is unfortunate but much closer to reality...
 
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Kevin27NYI

Registered User
Aug 5, 2009
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I don't think Lou is scared of anything personally. Think the man believes he has a solid team that underachieved with about 11 million in cap space.
This is very true. Also, our team is signed short term. The team didn't go into the offseason with a ton of holes, it was "we have 14 forwards signed on with roles defined, if we could upgrade one of these guys, that'd be great". Defense is pretty clear, Lou did an excellent job of adding a number 4 dman and a young one at that. Almost universally loved.

We went into last season confident we were a playoff team that could win a cup. Insert the weirdness and excuses here and it didn't work. We need a top end talent up front (hard to do) and a top 4 dman on the left side (accomplished) and here we are. So lets see.

To expand on this:

To judge our team short term and long term by position in my opinion, on roster building towards a stanley cup and being a consistent winner.

Goaltending -
Sorokin is a franchise goalie who is 27 and has 2 years left. Varly is 34 and a starter in his own right, probably around 18-23 amongst goalies if you ranked them which gives us the best tandem in the league. I think the outlook here is Lou wants Sorokin long term (duh) and what makes him comfortable is Varly who I'd bet we sign after this one expires and we have no replacement in the pipeline anyway. Romanov is friends with Sorokin too so that made that trade that much better.

Defense -

Pelech and Pulock are 27 and 28, both signed long term and a top pairing. Noah Dobson is probably going to be the top dog next season and hopefully now gets signed long term. With those three we're going to be set for a very long time. Romanov fills a need on the left side, while being offensively inept he is very good defensively and a strong skater. With Dobber on his right we don't really need an offensive powerhouse either so it works out. Young and keeps us competitive long term. Mayfield makes our defense hard to play against and is a top PKer in the league, with Dobber and Pulock long term deals with big tickets I think this is his last season as he could make 4.5-5 on his next deal as he has been making peanuts. Ideally maybe you keep him at 4 AAV but I think he goes wherever the money is and Hutton is on his heels. After romanov, Aho and Salo are there to fill in and let's see. Pipeline wise Odelius could be solid. That's it though, Bolduc needs a sick bounceback year for me to consider him anything. That's why Romanov was great, there's nothing comin through the left side so he fits that long term.

Offense-

Down the middle we have Nelson, Barzal, Pageau and Cizikas all long term. All have their roles and all fill it well. A strength of the team. In the pipeline we have Raty and he will likely be a winger to start but down the line he could replace Nelson maybe. Wingers are kind of the issue, short term we have Lee, Palmieri, Parise, Beau and Bailey. Long term we have Bellows (fringe), Wally (shows promise but not a top 6 winger yet) and then Holmstrom and Dufour. That's why wehave so many average middle six wingers, there's no prospects knocking on the door and no top end talent. Whether it's pick #8 or #23 or #32 in the draft, if we have it I'd like to use it on a winger. But by the time Parise's deal is up we can insert one of the young'ins, Bailey and Beau too for Holmstrom and Dufour or whoever steps up. There's opportunity knocking.

The gut of the team and the gut of a successful team is goaltending, defense and down the middle. Ages of these guys are 27 (Sorokin), 22, 22, 27, 28 (Romanov, Dobson, Pulock and Pelech) and then 25, 30, 29 (Barzy, Nelson and Pageau).
 

xIsle

Registered User
Oct 24, 2006
3,360
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Montreal
Actually it surprises me immensely he wasn't moved earlier in the offseason. I repeat, there have been at least a dozen players moved with similar status or worse contracts/worse production....
The majority of coaches, GMs do not rave about players who are too cerebral. A good example is the acquisition of Lehkonen by Colorado. The latter played a very similar role to what Bailey could have given as well. That said, Sakic traded a good prospect for him (Justin Barron) in addition to a 2nd round pick while for Bailey it would probably have cost less.

Of course, we will never know if Bailey was offered to Sakic, but in my opinion, it would make a lot of sense. And if that were the case, I can't blame Sakic for having opted for this choice; while Lehkonen scored some important goals, Bailey would surely have made his famous "too many pass"...
 

Throttle

Registered User
Sep 22, 2020
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It’s not that he didn’t overpay for Kadri, it’s that he sat on his f***ing hands since the draft. Plenty of opportunities to sign some players or make some moves, but his ego seems to get in the way. Was solely focused on JG and nothing. Apparently was invested in Kadri and came away with nothing.

All while other teams are improving. It’s a bad look that this man clearly doesn’t know how to handle multiple tasks at once.
So, transactions for the sake of transactions. Just because.
 

IslesNorway

Registered User
Apr 9, 2007
9,396
3,018
Nittedal, Norway
Lou's biggest mistake is not reading the league cap situation correctly. He put the Islanders in a tight spot by signing stupid deals, and obviously misjudged the flat cap believing there would openings. There weren't any.

The Isles are a team of players you don't wanna trade (Dobson, Barzal, Pelech etc.) And a bunch of players you cannot trade for contract reasons (Lee, Cizikas, Palmieri, Pageau etc). It's a tough spot to be in.

I'm not sure Lou is the guy to fix it.
 

Throttle

Registered User
Sep 22, 2020
5,832
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Lou's biggest mistake is not reading the league cap situation correctly. He put the Islanders in a tight spot by signing stupid deals, and obviously misjudged the flat cap believing there would openings. There weren't any.

The Isles are a team of players you don't wanna trade (Dobson, Barzal, Pelech etc.) And a bunch of players you cannot trade for contract reasons (Lee, Cizikas, Palmieri, Pageau etc). It's a tough spot to be in.

I'm not sure Lou is the guy to fix it.
Uh-huh. The only team running around with a ton of transactions is Calgary - their two best players split and they have been scrambling to backfill that. Otherwise, the offseason has been much ado about nothing league-wide on impact. Yeah, JG went to CLB - they are nowhere near a playoff contender with that defense, goaltending, and depth. But, hey, they won the offseason and let's be scared about Lou.
 
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JPIsles18

Registered User
Jul 12, 2022
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Uh-huh. The only team running around with a ton of transactions is Calgary - their two best players split and they have been scrambling to backfill that. Otherwise, the offseason has been much ado about nothing league-wide on impact. Yeah, JG went to CLB - they are nowhere near a playoff contender with that defense, goaltending, and depth. But, hey, they won the offseason and let's be scared about Lou.
I agree with you on CBJ. They got JG but quickly undid a lot of good by trading away their best winger on a good contract only to overpay Laine. This is great news for us as CBJ are only marginally better because of their moves. They also overpaid Gubransson. Dear god, that's bad.

Overall, you are correct about making moves for the sake of making moves. JG would've been a needle mover. Kadri is more of a making move for the sake of making a move for the Isles. The best teams have a mixture of veterans, guys on their prime, and guys who are young outperforming their contract. Last season the Isles had 3 guys significantly outperforming their contracts: Sorokin, Dobson, Parise, and Nelson. You can also make an argument for Pelech and Pulock. However, most of the roster underachieved based on their cap hit. Some guys were just flat out not NHL players: Chara, Greene, Martin.

Lou has made a habit of being too loyal to guys that used to be good. There is a human element, sure. But for a franchise to be successful, they need to be self aware and know when to move on from a player. If you're confused, there are tons of data out there on age curves. Re-signing Bailey to an extension after a career year when his metrics pointed towards a downturn was the wrong move. Signing Palmieri after there were clear signs of decline to a 4 year contract was the wrong move. JGP, same idea. It's not that these players are bad by any means. They aren't. It's just that you don't need 3 middle 6 forwards who don't score much averaging 5 mil a piece. You also don't need an old and expensive 4th line. None of these players are bad. They are just all 1-2 million overpaid and play redundant roles on contracts that won't age well.

Look at how the expansion draft played out. Lou exposed both Bailey and Eberle. He was hoping one would get picked so that he could resign Palmieri. At best, that's a lateral move. He trades for JGP, and in turn loses Toews because that cap went to JGP. In fairness, he probably didn't know the cap would be stagnant due to COVID. In this case, it was a downgrade. Toews is far more valuable. Furthermore, Leddy inexplicably got 4x4 this offseason. At first I was under the impression that Toews was moved because there were no takers for Leddy. If 4x4 is any indication of what Leddy's perception is in the NHL, I'm fairly certain his 5.5 x2 salary could've been moved instead of Toews. Speculative.

Overall, Lou's decision making has been questionable at best when it comes to building this roster. It's disheartening because we were so close, we just needed a scorer and a Toews. 4 years later we're still looking for a scorer and gave away Toews. But at least we have the most expensive 4th line in the league.
 
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Pumpkin Pal

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Oct 17, 2014
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Uh-huh. The only team running around with a ton of transactions is Calgary - their two best players split and they have been scrambling to backfill that. Otherwise, the offseason has been much ado about nothing league-wide on impact. Yeah, JG went to CLB - they are nowhere near a playoff contender with that defense, goaltending, and depth. But, hey, they won the offseason and let's be scared about Lou.

JG on the isles not only moves the needle and makes them legit cup contenders, it extends their window for 5+ years. Literally the dream scenario for a GM for a player like this to fall in to your laps because his preferred destination (Philly) is too incompetent to clear cap space and has too many middling players signed to unmoveable contracts. Unfortunately for Lou and us, he created the same situation here.
 

Throttle

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Sep 22, 2020
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I agree with you on CBJ. They got JG but quickly undid a lot of good by trading away their best winger on a good contract only to overpay Laine. This is great news for us as CBJ are only marginally better because of their moves. They also overpaid Gubransson. Dear god, that's bad.

Overall, you are correct about making moves for the sake of making moves. JG would've been a needle mover. Kadri is more of a making move for the sake of making a move for the Isles. The best teams have a mixture of veterans, guys on their prime, and guys who are young outperforming their contract. Last season the Isles had 3 guys significantly outperforming their contracts: Sorokin, Dobson, Parise, and Nelson. You can also make an argument for Pelech and Pulock. However, most of the roster underachieved based on their cap hit. Some guys were just flat out not NHL players: Chara, Greene, Martin.

Lou has made a habit of being too loyal to guys that used to be good. There is a human element, sure. But for a franchise to be successful, they need to be self aware and know when to move on from a player. If you're confused, there are tons of data out there on age curves. Re-signing Bailey to an extension after a career year when his metrics pointed towards a downturn was the wrong move. Signing Palmieri after there were clear signs of decline to a 4 year contract was the wrong move. JGP, same idea. It's not that these players are bad by any means. They aren't. It's just that you don't need 3 middle 6 forwards who don't score much averaging 5 mil a piece. You also don't need an old and expensive 4th line. None of these players are bad. They are just all 1-2 million overpaid and play redundant roles on contracts that won't age well.

Look at how the expansion draft played out. Lou exposed both Bailey and Eberle. He was hoping one would get picked so that he could resign Palmieri. At best, that's a lateral move. He trades for JGP, and in turn loses Toews because that cap went to JGP. In fairness, he probably didn't know the cap would be stagnant due to COVID. In this case, it was a downgrade. Toews is far more valuable. Furthermore, Leddy inexplicably got 4x4 this offseason. At first I was under the impression that Toews was moved because there were no takers for Leddy. If 4x4 is any indication of what Leddy's perception is in the NHL, I'm fairly certain his 5.5 x2 salary could've been moved instead of Toews. Speculative.

Overall, Lou's decision making has been questionable at best when it comes to building this roster. It's disheartening because we were so close, we just needed a scorer and a Toews. 4 years later we're still looking for a scorer and gave away Toews. But at least we have the most expensive 4th line in the league.
I'm with you on all this. The Isles problem (not limited to a GM either) is the middle. A number of players on the Isles are overpaid to be retained or signed. That's the world of the Islanders. So, that $1m+ p/year starts to add up...in the middle. Because the Isles lack the premium player stack like a PIT that forces you to pay others less. So, the idea is to spread stuff around.

For example: You expose Eberle, he gets picked, then you go short on Palms, he walks. How are the NY ISLANDERS covering those 20-30 goals and 15-18 minutes per night? Prospect? Another trade? UFA? It all leads to Prospect = underperforms, Trade = more assets, UFA = overpaying again, just a new guy.
 

Throttle

Registered User
Sep 22, 2020
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JG on the isles not only moves the needle and makes them legit cup contenders, it extends their window for 5+ years. Literally the dream scenario for a GM for a player like this to fall in to your laps because his preferred destination (Philly) is too incompetent to clear cap space and has too many middling players signed to unmoveable contracts. Unfortunately for Lou and us, he created the same situation here.
What a strategy, (1) clear out cap space, (2) hope the team the UFA wants to go can't (PHI-they didn't), (3) then hope no other team is in play (NJD), (4) then hope no other desperate team (CLB) shows up, and (5) hope the player actually says I have no other options, let's go to you NYI (5a) or maybe the player reduces his ask, resets his price, and goes to another team entirely for another try next year (ANA-Klingberg). In both of those strategies, the player's agents misread the market.

Brilliant. Any GM would get slaughtered for that strategy by his owner.
 
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Pumpkin Pal

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Oct 17, 2014
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What a strategy, (1) clear out cap space, (2) hope the team the UFA wants to go can't (PHI-they didn't), (3) then hope no other team is in play (NJD), (4) then hope no other desperate team (CLB) shows up, and (5) hope the player actually says I have no other options, let's go to you NYI. Brilliant. Any GM would get slaughtered for that strategy.

The strategy is to not sign middle six forwards for both much too much money AND for much too long. You can stomach one or the other and a contract remains moveable, but time and time again Lou gives out deals that feature both. Look at how many awful contracts the isles have for how they got in to this situation in the first place.

You could say "any contract is moveable when Andrew Ladd gets traded." Of course, if you're willing to trade every draft pick you have and completely mortgage your future. And Lou has also done that. Just check out our bustling farm system for proof. At some point the isles need to add someone, anyone, on an ELC who can contribute at a league average rate to their current core to have any chance of competing. Not massively overpaying their bottom 9 forwards would also help.

Good teams with good management spend near the cap but have enough moveable assets in the form of quality prospects or NHL players on decent deals that they can maneuver around that and still add quality talent year after year.

I wouldn't even consider CBJ "well run" but when the question becomes-"are you willing to trade Oliver bjorkstrand to have Johnny gaudreau and Patrick Laine?" If you don't smash YES as fast as humanly possible, well, then you're probably Lou lamoriello.
 
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