JKP
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Is the sky always falling for you, man? Seriously, just let it play out and it is what it is. Try a little optimism!!
Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California
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BelovedIsles
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Sheva7
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As long as it's less than 5yrs, signing Kadri wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. He's a solid all around player. Imagine adding a grittier, higher scoring Frans Nielsen to this line up. That's what I'd compare him to.
We'd also get to keep most of the few assets we have:
- Bailey. This group is very tight and Bails is a glue guy in that room. I understand why Lou won't move him.
- Beau. He's been frustrating as hell to watch...and I think Isles fans overrate him...but he still has his best years ahead of him and brings much needed speed to the lineup. I noticed he was also sitting at the Isles draft table in Montreal. The organization has loved this guy from day 1.
- Our 1st round pick. I dunno, I think our prospect pool is pretty bad. Imo we can't afford to trade any more high picks.
- Varly. This is one where Lou maybe should have struck while the iron was hot. It is never too late to work something out, but the competent backups that could have replaced him got snatched up at the start of free agency.
Having said that, maybe Lou intends on having him stick around a few more years by hopefully taking a haircut on his next contract.
- Wahlstrom. I've seen his name tossed around in proposals, mostly by other teams fans. For me, we should consider him nearly untouchable. Imo we haven't even scratched the surface with this kid. Not interested in moving him at all, let alone when his stock is low.
We'd also get to keep most of the few assets we have:
- Bailey. This group is very tight and Bails is a glue guy in that room. I understand why Lou won't move him.
- Beau. He's been frustrating as hell to watch...and I think Isles fans overrate him...but he still has his best years ahead of him and brings much needed speed to the lineup. I noticed he was also sitting at the Isles draft table in Montreal. The organization has loved this guy from day 1.
- Our 1st round pick. I dunno, I think our prospect pool is pretty bad. Imo we can't afford to trade any more high picks.
- Varly. This is one where Lou maybe should have struck while the iron was hot. It is never too late to work something out, but the competent backups that could have replaced him got snatched up at the start of free agency.
Having said that, maybe Lou intends on having him stick around a few more years by hopefully taking a haircut on his next contract.
- Wahlstrom. I've seen his name tossed around in proposals, mostly by other teams fans. For me, we should consider him nearly untouchable. Imo we haven't even scratched the surface with this kid. Not interested in moving him at all, let alone when his stock is low.
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Skip To My Lou
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If we sign Kadri, I'm gonna need to have him unblock me on Twitter.
LeapOnOver
Mackenzie is a hack!
SayItAintSoJohnny
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When you can't score at a rate to keep up with playoff teams, and refuse to trade your 5 million dollar backup goalie, you deserve whatever fate your team is facing. The offseason is not over. However, IMO, JG was a must and trading Varlamov and Bailey should have happened to open up some space.
The team still needs scoring and the options are dwindling. Kadri is a really interesting player. Kadri was a legit elite player last year.
For it to be a good contract, according to Dom with the Athletic, these would be the numbers:
~6.5 million x 7 years
~7.0 million x 6 years
~7.5 million x 5 years
~8.0 million x 4 years
~8.5 million x 3 years
Hard guy to project because he seems to be getting better with age. The age curve is weird with him. I guess we'll see. I'm wary of signing Kadri. But at 6.5x7, I think I'd be pretty happy. Anything more would be a bad idea.
If he ages like a Marchand, it may be a good bet at the numbers above.
IslandersFan17
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Throttle
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You are working off the assumption that trading those players to open up cap space, would automatically lead to a premium UFA to sign with NYI, which is … false.
SayItAintSoJohnny
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Marchand has averaged near 100 points a season since age 28, Kadri just had his first 100 point season (per82) at age 31....
The SEVEN seasons prior he was a 52-point scorer and Kyle Plamieri averaged more goals and Josh freaking Bailey averaged more points and those two guys are getting paid 5 million....
Anyone who thinks Kadri is even remotely coming close to what he did in Colorado last season for us is crazy....no, we would be LUCKY if he even puts up a season or two of 60 points (considering he has only done it once before, a 61 point season back in 2016-17 and it took a full 82 game slate to do it)
Those contracts above are ludicrous. Anything more than 7 million (x4) is a serious overpay. Even with his monster year last season he ISN'T EVEN A CAREER 60-pt player for crying out loud...
He is not aging like Marchand.
Where are you guys getting this nonsense??
SayItAintSoJohnny
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Of course not automatically, but it would have been the more logical way to go.
Waiting to clear cap space when you are forced to is never the better option. Now you very well are going to have to attach asset(s)to move Bailey or won't get what you could have gotten for Semyon or AB- for obvious reasons (limited cap space, lost leverage, rosters more full, etc)
We really don't know if 10.5-11 million would have enticed JG to sign or not and choose us over Ohio- what we do now know is it was never offered- and it seems that reason was because we couldn't clear the cap space....
It is why logical Islander fans are not going to be thrilled with these last moves Lou announces.....which will in all likelihood be overpays, about what he always does with everything....
LeapOnOver
Mackenzie is a hack!
The Winter Soldier
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7M x 6 is the sweetspot for Kadri. This will bring him to 38 when the contract expires. If the Isles are in the mix, would think they are buying for his early years. Post 35 hard to predict how a player will age, but if Kadri is an Islander. You can never have enough Centers on a team. I would try Nelson back on the wing as an option. Somewhere he has played before. And Bailey would be as certain as gone since his 5M will be reallocated to fit Kadri. Lots of what if scenarios though.
Throttle
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JG and his agent read the market wrong, he panicked - his agent went fishing in Columbus. If he wanted NYI, then he could have done that and the Isles could have opened up the cap space. It’s pretty obvious he had no interest. Blaming the GM for not making a player sign with you is fruitless. Just like CLB cleared out cap space rather quickly after Laine signed.
And yes the Isles do have to overpay for UFA players. That’s not going to change no matter who the GM is. However, Snow and Lou have been able to resign their own RFAs and certain UFAs to reasonable deals, in some instances below market.
Complain all day about overpay this and that, but the Isles and Long Island are not the place fans think it is. There are much better places to play in the league. In hockey and in general.
The Winter Soldier
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Kadri is a unique player, he drags teams into the fight, he is a middle sized power fwd with skill and plays with an edge. IMO, he would be a signing where a team will be buying 3 prime years, and then a probable decline. These type of signings will probably not age well, but if the Isles or whomever signs him wins in the next 3 years, then it's all a moot point. I do know he would make the Isles a better team next season if he signs with Lou again. It was Lou that negotiated his last long term contract. Certainly there is history there, he was an unpolished player before Lou. He started to become a professional after Lou locked him up. I am sure there is tremendous mutual respect there. I am pretty sure, if Lou was still the Leafs GM, they would not have made the lopsided loss of a trade Dubas made. I know enough about Kadri to know he has a very long memory, and just speculating from a far, he probably respects the heck out of Lou that I think the Isles are in the mix here.
Sheva7
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Ok ok ur right. We probably can't unless somone else is moved or Dobson signs for peanuts.
I've edited my post to read: signing Kadri would allow us to keep 'MOST' of our assets.
Sheva7
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Wow lol the politician strikes again. Look...Saying Kadri appears to be aging like Marchand doesn't mean Kadri is a 100pt player like Marchand lol.
Nobody here is expecting him to produce like he did last season.
But good job again in continuing to cherry pick tiny irrelevant parts from posts in order to twist/misrepresent/ignore the posters overall message.
SayItAintSoJohnny
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Sounds like the same talking points to me with a lot of conjucture. You open the second paragraph with Isles "have to overpay" for UFA players and yet your first paragraph contradicts it to say JG "needed to want to be here" and Lou clearing the space and making the highest offer wouldn't have mattered. Makes no sense really.
Truth is (I repeat) we have no idea whether the a million-million and a half more per wouldn't have kept him in the East and signed here. Reports are Philly certainly would have been an option had they had the cash. The only thing we know for sure is we didn't offer that "overpay" and I would argue that difference makers are the only time we should and not the Kadri's of the world.
We also know that (out of his own lips) that trading Varlamov was not an option and there were reports we weren't even shopping Bailey. This coupled with reports that "not being able to clear the space" was the central reason we didn't even engage.
And no one is indicating the Islanders are the go-to destination, but obviously it is more attractive now with new owners and a new stadium.
Regardless it is NOT an excuse to overpay for non difference makers, all you do is go around in circles that way. If you are convinced that you are never going to get a big time player (either because you refuse to overpay or because of the unattractiveness of your team's location/status) than Lou is clearly not the right GM for the job....because you should be building your roster ONLY through the draft and strike gold on your difference makers that way.....
Can't do that if you are trading away your first round picks for the likes of Pageau, Palmieri and Romanov- good players but not "difference makers"....
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SayItAintSoJohnny
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It was a bad example and you know it. You were basing your "age like Marchand" on one single year...
A logical projection for Kadri is to return to the 50-55 point player he has always been and maybe have a couple of 60-70 point seasons during a 4+ year contract....
If anyone cherry picked it was you and you used his "completely out of his norm" season skating with the offensively gifted Avalanche as your basis...
A bit of an overreaction. I was not saying he's Marchand. I was saying, if he ages like Marchand it's a good bet. Marchand is obviously better. Marchand is a player worth 10+ million a year.
Evaluating Kadri based on points alone skews the math on his true value. He's not a 100 point player. He's also a much better player throughout his career than a Palmieri and Bailey. There's also positional value. He's a very good two way center. 7x4, as you suggest would be great. Hopefully, that's all it takes.
Over his career with the Avalanche, he is +15.6 for xGF rate at 5 on 5. Bailey is -7.1 over the last 3 years. Palmieri is a +0.6 over the last 3 years. Kadri has always had strong underlying numbers with excellent defensive value while playing tougher minutes. Points don't tell the whole story.
I don't believe this to be true. I think JG would've signed with the Isles if we offered anywhere near with CBJ offered. However, if you look at our cap space, it would've taken moving two players off the roster to make it happen. Lou didn't want to do that.
Say they signed JG to the same 9.5x7 contract. That would've left them 1.7 mil to sign Dobson, Romanov, and Bellows. Now say they trade Bailey. Now it's 6.7 to sign all 3. Just not feasible. Now if Lou moved Varlamov when he had the chance, and then Bailey, it'd be a different story.
I just don't think the Isles offered enough. It came down to the Devils and CBJ eventually in terms of money offered. He chose CBJ. I don't thin the Isles were ever in it.
SayItAintSoJohnny
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I know it doesn't tell the whole story and I have said as much repeatedly, but he is NOT a difference maker under any realm of the imagination. Those intangibles are EXACTLY why I said I would give him 6-7 million and not the 5 million those two are getting (even though prior to last season they put up comparable points offensively)
I am not however (especially with his advanced age) not giving him more than 7x4- plus we don't even need a center...especially when we have three difference makers of our own needing new contracts in the next couple of years (Sorokin, Dobson and yes, Barzal)...
As for Marchand, I dont see that one at all. Brad aged better and became a 100pt player. If we all are admitting Kadri isn't going to come close to his century-per82 season of last year...how are we ALSO saying he is going to age better???
SayItAintSoJohnny
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4 years at 7 million.
I am not going to be too upset if we go 5 and 6 or 6,5.
Anything more than that is an OVERPAY and I just soon we run it back with what we have....
Also will be a major FUBAR if we are having to add a valuable asset to clear the space just to sign him to that #
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