Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[saintunspecified]

I get the feeling that people here have 2 issues with Kadri. His 7 year ask on this contract, and the playoff suspensions. Nothing you can do about his playoff past, and yes it was a turnoff. As for his alleged 7 year contract demand, just because he asks for it doesn't mean he's going to get it. I'd have no problem if Lou offered him 4 years.

100% agree, although if it's 4, I hope it's at 7 max. Front load that sucker. And the thing about his suspensions in the playoffs is that they really hurt *because* he's an excellent playoff performer when he's on the ice.

 

[saintunspecified]

The comparison is not who they are but on paper. Bailey is one year older than Kadri.. and his 3 best seasons were 71, 56 and 56 points. Kadri has 87,61, 55. They are 1 year apart and Bailey has 555 career points and Kadri has 357 points. Not sure why the statistical comparison is illogical.

If you judge by points per game, Kadri scores at .692 & Bailey at .559. That's a 24% advantage for Kadri. Kadri's goals per game is 67% higher than Bailey's (lol who'd guess). So, while logic is neither here nor there, the comparison is not mathematically congruent. Come. On.

 

[majormet]

That must be a typo or an incorrect source. Here are the accurate career numbers:

Bailey: 993GP, 555 points (playoffs: 71GP, 50 points)
Kadri: 739GP, 512 points (playoffs: 52GP, 44 points)

Kadri's numbers are clearly superior, especially if you consider goal scoring where the difference is even greater.

Yeah those are his Toronto numbers I guess, I read off the splits on Hockey reference... 10 years in Toronto averaged 35 points a year I guess, if this was the Mets and no cap I write the blank check.

If you judge by points per game, Kadri scores at .692 & Bailey at .559. That's a 24% advantage for Kadri. Kadri's goals per game is 67% higher than Bailey's (lol who'd guess). So, while logic is neither here nor there, the comparison is not mathematically congruent. Come. On.

I only looked at his Toronto numbers which is what I think he would do here.

 

[PK Cronin]

That must be a typo or an incorrect source. Here are the accurate career numbers:

Bailey: 993GP, 555 points (playoffs: 71GP, 50 points)
Kadri: 739GP, 512 points (playoffs: 52GP, 44 points)

Kadri's numbers are clearly superior, especially if you consider goal scoring where the difference is even greater.

Kadri is better, it's not a question.

 

[Throttle]

100% agree, although if it's 4, I hope it's at 7 max. Front load that sucker. And the thing about his suspensions in the playoffs is that they really hurt *because* he's an excellent playoff performer when he's on the ice.

If he's looking for a 7yr deal, then he's really expecting to play that entire time. He knows teams will go long to spread out his cap hit, but once he's 37/38/39, he doesn't give a crap what team he's on while collecting checks on LTIR somewhere, but he's still getting paid.

 

[Tuckisles]

Kadri is better, it's not a question.

I agree Kadri is better but I still don't want any part of him. Last year's numbers were inflated by the talent around him and I feel he is going to be way overpaid. I would rather trade for Tarasenko

 

[19 in a row]

I'm legitimately afraid of this. Brock was our best forward last year. He's on a great contract that is ending at the right time. If they trade Brock in order to get 7 years of Kadri, I'll legitimately be upset.

IMHO Brock was our best all around forward last year by a good amount. He has 3 years left at a very reasonable $6M AAV which ends at he right time as you say (as have most of our long term contracts with Lee being the only one that might have been a year or two too long age wise). Lou may be a bit crazy but not stupid.. Nothing would be impossible, but I would be shocked if Nelson, a major piece of our core, was moved for a lateral move or even a slight upgrade which I don't believe Kadri has been over his career. Also keep in mind that Brock has a 16 team M-NTC as per Capfriendly.

 

[BrockLobster]

Completely agree. Over the last few days I have been reading some of the most truly dumb and frightening things on here and in various news and rumors columns about the Isles that I have in a very long time. First the idea that we are close to signing Kadri for 7 years at 8 million just in general. Then, that we could trade Dobson as PART of a package to get JT Miller. Not a one for one (which i Still would not do), but Dobson and MORE to get JT Miller. And now, talking about trading Brock Nelson, far and away our best goal scorer on a team that does not score goals, in order to open up a spot for a 32 year old free agent who in his career year scored 10 less goals than Nelson. I mean you cannot make this stuff up. If these things happen I would legit have to think long and hard about if my fandom of this team should continue if not for anything else than to preserve my health and mental sanity.

Dont forget also that barzal is a 3C plug who should be dealt for futures.

This board has had some legendary hot takes this month

 

[doublechili]

I only looked at his Toronto numbers which is what I think he would do here.

However, the TOR years included the very early part of his career. And then in his final year there he was, I think, the 3C behind Matthews and Tavares. If Kadri were on the 1st line here with Barzal, I think his numbers could be pretty good. And if we're parsing numbers, Bailey's best year by far was the Weight year where the team scored lots of goals and gave up the most in the league (even JHS put up some relatively impressive numbers). Hence Bailey being a -20 that year.

 

[Chardo]

Kadri is a good player, better than Bailey, but he's a [mod edit]. He will be suspended at some point. Possibly more than once. When not suspended, you like having an A hole like that on your side. But buyer beware.

 

[majormet]

However, the TOR years included the very early part of his career. And then in his final year there he was, I think, the 3C behind Matthews and Tavares. If Kadri were on the 1st line here with Barzal, I think his numbers could be pretty good. And if we're parsing numbers, Bailey's best year by far was the Weight year where the team scored lots of goals and gave up the most in the league (even JHS put up some relatively impressive numbers). Hence Bailey being a -20 that year.

In a scenario where we would have Kadri, and I am against him for mainly salary cap to talent reasons

Lee/Nelson/Barzal
Palmieri/Kadri/Wahlstrom
Parise/Pageau/(Bailey or Beau)

That is how I would shape the team, I'd like to see Nelson and Barzal together, that is a combo that I think would click. Assume 7M for Kadri 5.5 for Dobson and 2.5 for Romanov, that is 14.5million we have 12 million in cap, maybe sign a dman for 2.5 and that is 17 million, deal Beau and you have 17 million. We could probably get CDH or Ryan Murray for under 2.5 and let either one battle Salo for the bottom pairing job.

 

[19 in a row]

Kadri brings an element that Bailey totally does not. Kadri's strength is Bailey's weakness. That's hard to quantify.

But even for the quantifiable stuff, Kadri scores goals at a .30 per game career clip, whereas Bailey is at .18 goals per game. Bailey has never scored 20 goals, whereas Kadri has scored 32 twice, 28 once, and 20 another time (plus 19 in 51 games and 18 in 48 games in shortened seasons). And Kadri has been playing C and Bailey is a winger! Also, I'll guess the vast majority of Kadri's career games have been on the 2nd line, whereas Bailey has played a decent amount on the top line (with top line players and PP time). A lot of Bailey's points have been assists to Tavares, Lee, Nelson, etc..


You just beat me to it!

I am not going argue on Kadri's production, he is obviously a more physical and scores more goals than Bailey. We can disagree on the intangibles but no need to get into that. Kadri will also likely come with a much bigger price tag and more years as well for a player that is almost exactly a year younger than Bailey.

I was curious about your comment about Bailey's top line minutes even strength (I didnt do the work on PP but don't think he got much time there for the first half of his career either). He has been all over the lineup during his career, so would not say he has had top line minutes for the majority.

I used Dobber sports which gives the % you play with each line combo by year.
It wasn't until 2014/15, his 7th year, that he began to play with Tavares. He had over 50% of his even strength ice time with Tavares 3x (14/15,16/17 and 17/18, the line combinations in 15/16 were crazy but Nelson was his most common line mate) and Barzal 1x (18-19 just over 50%, he played about 30% of the time with Barzal last year). So. you might say he has been on the first line only 4 times out of his 14 seasons. He has been all over the lineup LW,C,RW , 1st , 2nd and 3rd line, even some time with 4th liners. H

Thinking about how he was rushed early on, Bailey's most common even strength line combinations by year for his first 6 seasons none of which were top line. These are the most common combinations, he played with a number of other wingers but very seldom with Tavares prior to 2014/15.:
2008-2009. - Comeau , Jackman
2009-2010 - Nielsen, Okposo
2010-2011 - Comeau , Shremp
2011-2012 - Rolston, Martin
2012-2013 - Nielsen - Okposo (injured and strike shortened year only played 38 games)
2013-2014 - Grabner ,Nielsen
Since those first seasons Bailey has 378 points in 587 regular seaoson games, a 64.4% PPG pace. Not too bad for what his contract is IMO, not even mentioning the intangibles (which we might differ on).


Some of Kadri's early seasons he was paired with some good wingers (he only played 1 game in 2009-10). Most frequent line combination:
2010-11 Kessel Bozak (only played 29 games)
2011-12 Macarthur, Lombardi (only played 21 games)
2012-2013 - Macarthur , Uncle Leo (only played 48 games)
2013-2014 Phil Kessel , JVR (78 games first full season, played with top line most often)
In fairness, just going by the line combos it looks like he got relegated the next season to play further down the lineup.

Just thought it was interesting.

 

[dlawong]

Kadri and Wilson in the same division will be quite interesting.

 

[dlawong]

How about trading both Beau and Bailey together (2/3 of the Killer Bee line) for 2nd round draft picks or goalie prospects to make room? Sign Steel for cheap to replace Beau. He is not quite as fast, but does have better moves and pinpoint passing ability and can score on breakaways. Give him a 2-year contract to prove himself. Let him learn from Casey how to become a 2-way pro. If his game improves, you can move him up to the 2nd line. Beau probably will eventually move back to Montreal or Ottawa as a UFA one day. Not sure which team will be the best trading partner for Isles though to fit them both in at the same time. Ottawa? Detroit? Do they still have cap room for roster improvement on 2nd/3rd line?

 

[IslesNorway]

How about trading both Beau and Bailey together (2/3 of the Killer Bee line) for 2nd round draft picks or goalie prospects to make room? Sign Steel for cheap to replace Beau. He is not quite as fast, but does have better moves and pinpoint passing ability and can score on breakaways. Give him a 2-year contract to prove himself. Let him learn from Casey how to become a 2-way pro. If his game improves, you can move him up to the 2nd line. Beau probably will eventually move back to Montreal or Ottawa as a UFA one day. Not sure which team will be the best trading partner for Isles though to fit them both in at the same time. Ottawa? Detroit? Do they still have cap room for roster improvement on 2nd/3rd line?

No team in the league would want to trade a 2nd round pick for any of them in the current climate. Look at the Bjorkstrand deal. He's a much more proficient player and went for a 3rd and a 4th. Beau could possibly be dealt for a 4th/5th. Bailey has no value currently. There is very little cap room around the league and teams can probably do better than Bailey/Beau if willing to take on contracts. And if you're selling both of them together (and a good $9.2 million cap to go with them) it would require sweeteners enough to make you a diabetic...

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Kadri still unsigned is peculiar, if I am a betting man, he has an agreement in place and the deal will only be announced when a trade is made to shed some salary off of a team's roster.

The fact the Isles have not announced Dobson and Romanov RFA signings, makes me wonder if Lou will announce everything all at once on a quiet lazy August afternoon like last year. Remember it was the worse kept secret that Palmieri signed but announced months later. Pelech extended ect...

Have to wonder what Lou has cooking. Then again, Senile Lou may be taking his summer nap.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

If you judge by points per game, Kadri scores at .692 & Bailey at .559. That's a 24% advantage for Kadri. Kadri's goals per game is 67% higher than Bailey's (lol who'd guess). So, while logic is neither here nor there, the comparison is not mathematically congruent. Come. On.

Not sure I agree with comparing the two by totaling up Josh first 6 seasons in the league.

No, a better comparison would be using the last 8 seasons for both of them, since it would get both of them in line better and be a "fairer" comparison.

Josh Bailey, for all case and purposes; has been a 50 pt producer during that time which pretty much says his 5 million per is about right in line with his value:

587 games/110 goals/268 assists/378 points for a per 82 of 15/37/52 in roughly 17:01 minutes a game

Nazem Kadri's last 8 seasons:

562 games/173 goals/226 assists/399 points for a per 82 of 25/33/58 in roughly 17:30 minutes a game

As you can see there is 6 points difference. That "difference" for the most part is due to Kadri's lone big season last year where he averaged over 19 minutes of ice time (Bailey had one season over 18 in his career) and put up career-high numbers across the board with the offensively talented Avalanche.

Sadly, the difference between the two the PREVIOUS SEVEN SEASONS shows an even more alarming picture:

Bailey's per 82 is 53.4 while Kadri's is 52.1.

Sure you can water down the argument by putting in Josh Bailey's first 6 seasons in the league, but that just isn't playing fair really.

Offense production wise Josh is still a 5 million forward which he has proven consistently over his last 8 seasons- while Kadri as well deserves a contract similar. Since he is a center and does better with the intangibles, perhaps that is 6 million; but let's stop pretending he is anything more than that....

Now you want to reward him for that century per82 season, fine....give him his 7 million; but I am not doing it for more than 4 years when prior to that he AVERAGED about half that number....

A "fair deal" would be 4 years at 6 million, but I can understand the market and give him a million more. Any more than that by dollars or years would be a huge mistake and yes, given his age a HUGE OVERPAY....

 

[Quickdraw2828]

Kadri and Wilson in the same division will be quite interesting.

The more I think about it I think he'd fit in well. Our two semi goons Martin and Clutter are in the twilight of their careers. A few years ago teams knew they were going to get hit hard when playing the islanders, not so much anymore. We need to get stronger and meaner again. I like the Romanov trade for that reason.

 

[Glorydays22]

No team in the league would want to trade a 2nd round pick for any of them in the current climate. Look at the Bjorkstrand deal. He's a much more proficient player and went for a 3rd and a 4th. Beau could possibly be dealt for a 4th/5th. Bailey has no value currently. There is very little cap room around the league and teams can probably do better than Bailey/Beau if willing to take on contracts. And if you're selling both of them together (and a good $9.2 million cap to go with them) it would require sweeteners enough to make you a diabetic...

Bjorkstrand was a cap dump and Seattle knew Columbus has to move him to sign Laine. I'm sorry, I think you are wrong about Beau, he's not a cap dump and would definitely get you at least a 2nd. But with that said...I think that would be another stupid move on management's part. Can we not keep trading youngsters and picks for once??? Can we keep the few players 25 and under? How about giving Beau a chance in HOPEFULLY an different system and maybe just a thought playing him on one wing with Brazal. Remember how good the Beau-Brazl-Eberle line was until freaking Barry broke that up.

 

[Top Corner]

I can't understand all the talk of Beau being moved , he's not going anywhere.
If anyone is gone, it will be Bailey or Bellows or both. Whalstrom less likely but might be the adder in a Bailey
deal for something small coming back

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I can't understand all the talk of Beau being moved , he's not going anywhere.
If anyone is gone, it will be Bailey or Bellows or both. Whalstrom less likely but might be the adder in a Bailey
deal for something small coming back

I agree, we need more players like Beauviller. Players of speed and skill. Plus I would like to see him in a system that will allow him more offensive freedom before crossing this bridge. Could be a mistake if we move him. Still only just turned 25.

 

[PK Cronin]

Beauvillier is traded for a significant upgrade.
Bailey is traded to clear cap space.
Anyone else is included because it's for an upgrade, Wahlstrom or Bellows aren't salary dumps so they'd only be included in a deal for an upgrade on the roster.

Beauvillier as a cap dump would just be dumb. Bailey doesn't have the value to return a Tarasenko type of player so he won't be included in that type of deal.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Beauvillier is traded for a significant upgrade.
Bailey is traded to clear cap space.
Anyone else is included because it's for an upgrade, Wahlstrom or Bellows aren't salary dumps so they'd only be included in a deal for an upgrade on the roster.

Beauvillier as a cap dump would just be dumb. Bailey doesn't have the value to return a Tarasenko type of player so he won't be included in that type of deal.

Exactly, no way should Wahlstrom be an "add" just to unload Bailey....

 

[seafoam]

Weekes saying Klingberg to ANA on a one year 7M deal?

I honestly would have been in on that if I was the GM of the New York Islanders (which I’m not but should be).

Islanders:
Pelech-Klingberg
Dobson-Pulock
Romanov-Mayfield
Aho

Baby Islanders:
Salo-Hutton
Bolduc-X

 

[seafoam]

Get it done Stealth!