Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[periferal]

You're PeterDip?

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In other news, for those theorizing about how Pulock could be moved in a trade this offseason, here's an interesting tidbit from The Athletic:

View attachment 880211

Thank god Lee, Nelson, Barzal, Horvat, Pageau, Palmieri, Engvall, Pelech, Mayfield, and Varlamov are the only other players with some sort of no trade clause so Lou will have plenty of options to improve the roster this summer (and the next, and the next, and the next...).

 

[The Lighthouse]

Here’s a rumor…

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798816421780267484

Had it's time - long past time to move on.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Thank god Lee, Nelson, Barzal, Horvat, Pageau, Palmieri, Engvall, Pelech, Mayfield, and Varlamov are the only other players with some sort of no trade clause so Lou will have plenty of options to improve the roster this summer (and the next, and the next, and the next...).

I'm telling you guys.... There will be no big move. We will run it back again, hoping for a bounce back from Sorokin, a little more structure with a full offseason with Roy, and potentially Desrosiers taking over PK duty. We'll add a Yakov Trenin type to bolster the PK. Anyone hoping for a Guentzel type add is setting themselves up for disappointment.

If it looks like we're headed for more of the same during the season, they'll sell Nelson and Palmieri at the deadline, along with potentially dealing Lee or Pageau in the offseason. That will open up around 15M that will be used to re-sign Dobson and Romanov. There probably will not be much leftover to replace the 75-ish goals that just walked out the door, so we'll be doing that internally with our 32nd ranked prospect pool. Lou probably retires, and we're in for a world of hurt in 2025.

 

[MikeyMike01]

Not sure. But I can't see CAR taking 1/2 for the life of the contract. If the 50% over three years was spread over the remaining six years instead so that the Isles would pay $1.2 mil less than contract salary for all six years, that's not good enough. Paying KK 3.6 mil per year doesn't work in the short term for the Isles.

Carolina has the option to buy out KK for under $850,000 per year. You won’t get them to retain more than that.

 

[periferal]

I'm telling you guys.... There will be no big move. We will run it back again, hoping for a bounce back from Sorokin, a little more structure with a full offseason with Roy, and potentially Desrosiers taking over PK duty. We'll add a Yakov Trenin type to bolster the PK. Anyone hoping for a Guentzel type add is setting themselves up for disappointment.

If it looks like we're headed for more of the same during the season, they'll sell Nelson and Palmieri at the deadline, along with potentially dealing Lee or Pageau in the offseason. That will open up around 15M that will be used to re-sign Dobson and Romanov. There probably will not be much leftover to replace the 75-ish goals that just walked out the door, so we'll be doing that internally with our 32nd ranked prospect pool. Lou probably retires, and we're in for a world of hurt in 2025.

While I mostly agree that the team in October will be 90% the same as it is now...I don't believe for a second that Lou is going to start selling assets around the trade deadline next year for multiple reasons namely...

• This team is very average, and average will keep you in the playoff hunt around the annual trade deadline. And if you're in the playoff hunt you don't sell.
• Lou has literally never sold any player anytime of year unless the cap or an expansion draft FORCED him to. Since there's no expansion draft coming and the Isles will be cap compliant next March, no one should be expecting anything different on that front.
• In fact, Lou has literally resigned every notable pending UFA to a multi-year extension (with no trade protection), so why in the world would anyone think he's not going to do the same with Nelson and Palmieri within the next year.

Just because Lou never says anything doesn't mean you need Sherlock Holmes to guess what he's going to do.

 

[Throttle]

Yawn.

 

[impaaaaaact]

While I mostly agree that the team in October will be 90% the same as it is now...I don't believe for a second that Lou is going to start selling assets around the trade deadline next year for multiple reasons namely...

• This team is very average, and average will keep you in the playoff hunt around the annual trade deadline. And if you're in the playoff hunt you don't sell.
• Lou has literally never sold any player anytime of year unless the cap or an expansion draft FORCED him to. Since there's no expansion draft coming and the Isles will be cap compliant next March, no one should be expecting anything different on that front.
• In fact, Lou has literally resigned every notable pending UFA to a multi-year extension (with no trade protection), so why in the world would anyone think he's not going to do the same with Nelson and Palmieri within the next year.

Just because Lou never says anything doesn't mean you need Sherlock Holmes to guess what he's going to do.

Well... I outlined some reasons. The main one being that we're going to need 15M-ish to re-sign Dobson and Romanov, which will be a priority. There's a good chance they won't be able to sign either of them without moving out Pageau or Lee... and if they want to sign both they'll need to move both. So, in a scenario where it's more of the same it becomes a question of either gaining assets to lose players or spending assets to lose players. It's also within the realm of possibility that Lee and Pageau have positive value at the deadline two years from now with retention.

So that's your two year re-tool. Nelson is worth a 1st+ and Palmieri might be worth a first at the deadline depending on how he's playing next season. Lee and Pageau with retention in the last year of their deal... maybe a 3rd for Pageau and a 4th for Lee? Add to that the two lottery picks from the losing seasons and you've potentially replenished your prospect pool.

The alternative is that we're great next year with the new system and a Sorokin bounce back. We go balls out at the deadline, knowing that 3 of the core players to that roster are likely gone in the offseason. It will be a pivotal year no matter what, and I believe this is by Lou's design. I think he's done after this season.

 

[Osakahaus]

I'm telling you guys.... There will be no big move. We will run it back again, hoping for a bounce back from Sorokin, a little more structure with a full offseason with Roy, and potentially Desrosiers taking over PK duty. We'll add a Yakov Trenin type to bolster the PK. Anyone hoping for a Guentzel type add is setting themselves up for disappointment.

at least two of those guys. I dont mind the idea of just Trenin and Lomberg anyways with a full year of Roy and Desrosiers

 

[MikeyMike01]

If it looks like we're headed for more of the same during the season, they'll sell Nelson and Palmieri at the deadline, along with potentially dealing Lee or Pageau in the offseason. That will open up around 15M that will be used to re-sign Dobson and Romanov. There probably will not be much leftover to replace the 75-ish goals that just walked out the door

Well... I outlined some reasons. The main one being that we're going to need 15M-ish to re-sign Dobson and Romanov, which will be a priority. There's a good chance they won't be able to sign either of them without moving out Pageau or Lee... and if they want to sign both they'll need to move both.

Your math is totally off.

Nelson $6M
Palmieri $5M
Dobson $4M
Romanov $2.5M

That’s $17.5M in cap space already, without factoring in Lee, Pageau, or future cap increases.

 

[beach]

Carolina has the option to buy out KK for under $850,000 per year. You won’t get them to retain more than that.

True, but if part of the right deal, you never know.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Your math is totally off.

Nelson $6M
Palmieri $5M
Dobson $4M
Romanov $2.5M

That’s $17.5M in cap space already, without factoring in Lee, Pageau, or future cap increases.

Go to cap friendly, increase the cap to whatever you think it’s going to be in 2025, and try and sign all four of them without moving players out. If Dobson puts up another 70 point year he’ll be 10M plus, if Nelson puts up another 30 goals he’ll be 7M plus, and probably looking at at least 5m for Romanov. That would require an extra 5M (Pageau) and keeping Palms would require money from elsewhere. If you think he signs for 3M, maybe that comes from cap increases. If he commands more, someone else is moving out.

So regardless, I think two of those players are gone no matter what. It’ll either be the two that return assets, or the two that cost. And again, this would just represent basically running it back, but with a diminished roster. No major additions, only potential subtractions as we’re right up against the cap.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Well... I outlined some reasons. The main one being that we're going to need 15M-ish to re-sign Dobson and Romanov, which will be a priority. There's a good chance they won't be able to sign either of them without moving out Pageau or Lee... and if they want to sign both they'll need to move both. So, in a scenario where it's more of the same it becomes a question of either gaining assets to lose players or spending assets to lose players. It's also within the realm of possibility that Lee and Pageau have positive value at the deadline two years from now with retention.

So that's your two year re-tool. Nelson is worth a 1st+ and Palmieri might be worth a first at the deadline depending on how he's playing next season. Lee and Pageau with retention in the last year of their deal... maybe a 3rd for Pageau and a 4th for Lee? Add to that the two lottery picks from the losing seasons and you've potentially replenished your prospect pool.

The alternative is that we're great next year with the new system and a Sorokin bounce back. We go balls out at the deadline, knowing that 3 of the core players to that roster are likely gone in the offseason. It will be a pivotal year no matter what, and I believe this is by Lou's design. I think he's done after this season.

Not sure what you are meaning when you say "no big move" but I dont think Lou makes the Draft swap trade to pick up another 2nd rounder unless he is looking to make a move and considering we haven't selected a 1st rounder this decade, I can't eliminate that pick not being traded by him either (again).

Right now our cap shouldnt be that bad next offseason after Lou signs his handful of RFA's and gets that 6th defenseman (likely Reilly) as it would be 20 million+ as long as he doesn't do anything stupid (like extending Nelson or Palmieri).

That 25 million figure is with Lee and Pageau still on it, so even if he replaces JPG with a top 6 forward making a little more, it will still likely come in close to that number and we will have likely 11-12 forwards (Barzal, Horvat, Lee, Engvall, Cizikas, Holmstrom, MacLean, Tsypkalov, 2-3 rookies/cheap veterans and the unkown who replaced Pageau) making 42 million; 5-6 defenseman likely (Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield, Rookie and UFA this season-likely Reilly) making 18 million and our two goalies (Sorokin and Varlamov) making their combined 11 million.

That is 18-20 roster spots and 71-72 million against an expected 92 million cap. We know 2 spots are going to Noah and Alex and that is going to take a big chunk of it, but Lee will also be on his expiring to open up a little more. Hell, by that time you could buy him out and save 3 million or possibly over 5 if we move him with a mid-round pick and some retention...

25 million but you have to replace both Nelson and Palmieri in your top 6. The obvious hope would be one youngster (Dufour?) would be ready to be in there along with who you got this offseason and Barzal and Horvat. Same on defense that a youngster has stepped up to join Dobby, Romanov and the veteran trio of Pelech, Pulock and Mayfield....

Again, that is with the assumption Lou doesn't f*** it all up, which I am not holding my breath....

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

Nelson will be 34 at the beginning of the 2025 season and Palmieri will turn 35 shortly thereafter. Nelson, even if he nets 30 again isn't worth 7 million at that age and we should pass and Palms needed all 82 games to have his two 30 goal seasons, something that becomes even less likely at his age as well.

Islanders and Lou would be smart to move on from both of them

 

[periferal]

Well... I outlined some reasons. The main one being that we're going to need 15M-ish to re-sign Dobson and Romanov, which will be a priority. There's a good chance they won't be able to sign either of them without moving out Pageau or Lee... and if they want to sign both they'll need to move both. So, in a scenario where it's more of the same it becomes a question of either gaining assets to lose players or spending assets to lose players. It's also within the realm of possibility that Lee and Pageau have positive value at the deadline two years from now with retention.

So that's your two year re-tool. Nelson is worth a 1st+ and Palmieri might be worth a first at the deadline depending on how he's playing next season. Lee and Pageau with retention in the last year of their deal... maybe a 3rd for Pageau and a 4th for Lee? Add to that the two lottery picks from the losing seasons and you've potentially replenished your prospect pool.

The alternative is that we're great next year with the new system and a Sorokin bounce back. We go balls out at the deadline, knowing that 3 of the core players to that roster are likely gone in the offseason. It will be a pivotal year no matter what, and I believe this is by Lou's design. I think he's done after this season.

If Lou spends to the cap this season then the Isles will go into next offseason with at least 18M in cap space. Signing Dobson and Romanov isn't a problem. The question will be Nelson and Palmieri. Nelson is on the way out from his prime and should be dealt for multiple assets that could help reset/rebuild.

Truth be told I don't think Romanov is that special that he deserves 5M+/season and I'd like to see him traded + more for a defenseman who really deserves 7M/year.

Do I see any of this happening? Of course not.

And not sure why you think Lou is "done after this season." With the "automatic" way he came back when there should be questions about his age and performance, but there are seemingly none by ownership. It's very disappointing and very clear that Lou is going to go when he wants to go, and not before. And given the way he operates and the fact that hockey is his life I could see him dying on the job - And I don't say that lightly in anyway.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Ahem…I’ll just edit this.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Nelson will be 34 at the beginning of the 2025 season and Palmieri will turn 35 shortly thereafter. Nelson, even if he nets 30 again isn't worth 7 million at that age and we should pass and Palms needed all 82 games to have his two 30 goal seasons, something that becomes even less likely at his age as well.

Islanders and Lou would be smart to move on from both of them

I agree - which is why if we are a bubble team again this year they’ll probably be dealt at the deadline. We will use the 11M they vacate to pay for the raises due to Dobson and Romanov, which should be around 8M. This is a pivotal year because of those contracts and should be a balls to the wall deadline regardless of which way we move.

How’s this for a plan? Acquire 2 firsts for Nelson and Palmieri at the deadline, use them plus our first and another asset to move up to #1 and draft Hagens. Fun to dream…

 

[Throttle]

Nelson will be 34 at the beginning of the 2025 season and Palmieri will turn 35 shortly thereafter. Nelson, even if he nets 30 again isn't worth 7 million at that age and we should pass and Palms needed all 82 games to have his two 30 goal seasons, something that becomes even less likely at his age as well.

Islanders and Lou would be smart to move on from both of them

30G from a guy that usually nets 30G is $7M whether you are 24 or 38. The only difference with Nelson is term. He’s a soon to be UFA.

He’s a perimeter player, he doesn’t have the same wear and tear as other players would, but his skills will decline, no doubt.

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

30G from a guy that usually nets 30G is $7M whether you are 24 or 38. The only difference with Nelson is term. He’s a soon to be UFA.

He’s a perimeter player, he doesn’t have the same wear and tear as other players would, but his skills will decline, no doubt.

no argument, I am just not paying that for a 34-year old....period and the Islanders should just move on

 

[SayItAintSoJohnny]

I agree - which is why if we are a bubble team again this year they’ll probably be dealt at the deadline. We will use the 11M they vacate to pay for the raises due to Dobson and Romanov, which should be around 8M. This is a pivotal year because of those contracts and should be a balls to the wall deadline regardless of which way we move.

How’s this for a plan? Acquire 2 firsts for Nelson and Palmieri at the deadline, use them plus our first and another asset to move up to #1 and draft Hagens. Fun to dream…

Ya, you never want to be a seller at the deadline (means a lost season) but would love to just have the 3 first rounders to play with. Hell, Lee could have a strong first half (he still managed to score 20 goals for an 8th time in 9 full seasons) and "might" have a suitor who will send a 1st if we eat 2 million in his second year- you never know.

I have little to no confidence that we will be in that position however, much less Lou being able or even wanting to do the right thing and move them though....

 

[CupHolders]

Truth be told I don't think Romanov is that special that he deserves 5M+/season and I'd like to see him traded + more for a defenseman who really deserves 7M/year.

I have to question your player analysis then. I’m not much for +/- except when held in relation to the rest of the lineup.

He was +23 where the next player was +12. That was Dobson, who benefited from playing with Romanov.

Sorry, but if it’s not your player analysis, then maybe it’s more personal? Maybe you are still sore about Lou giving a first for Romanov? Honest question, I’m not trying to be a jerk.

Not only was the trade worth it then, it has proven to be an even BETTER value trade since.

As for your suggestion, who do you even see fitting that criteria?

 

[Kevin27NYI]

I have to question your player analysis then. I’m not much for +/- except when held in relation to the rest of the lineup.

He was +23 where the next player was +12. That was Dobson, who benefited from playing with Romanov.

Sorry, but if it’s not your player analysis, then maybe it’s more personal? Maybe you are still sore about Lou giving a first for Romanov? Honest question, I’m not trying to be a jerk.

Not only was the trade worth it then, it has proven to be an even BETTER value trade since.

As for your suggestion, who do you even see fitting that criteria?

I’m with you, he plays a brand of hockey still needed, actually improved this year offensively with his breakouts which I was super critical of last year. Roy also made the breakouts shorter which helped but still.

 

[FoxYou727]

Nelson will be 34 at the beginning of the 2025 season and Palmieri will turn 35 shortly thereafter. Nelson, even if he nets 30 again isn't worth 7 million at that age and we should pass and Palms needed all 82 games to have his two 30 goal seasons, something that becomes even less likely at his age as well.

Islanders and Lou would be smart to move on from both of them

right now is the best time to retool/rebuild

Trade Nelson and Palms retain 50% they scored 30 goals a first isn't THAT unrealistic

Pageau and Lee will have 1 yr left the next year

 

[Osakahaus]

Nelson will be 34 at the beginning of the 2025 season and Palmieri will turn 35 shortly thereafter. Nelson, even if he nets 30 again isn't worth 7 million at that age and we should pass and Palms needed all 82 games to have his two 30 goal seasons, something that becomes even less likely at his age as well.

Islanders and Lou would be smart to move on from both of them

I think Nelson is a bigger guy to move on from than KP, but both can be useful assets as well. Islanders should use one of those two instead of P&P for any of a trade with Winnipeg or whoever.

 

[periferal]

I have to question your player analysis then. I’m not much for +/- except when held in relation to the rest of the lineup.

He was +23 where the next player was +12. That was Dobson, who benefited from playing with Romanov.

Sorry, but if it’s not your player analysis, then maybe it’s more personal? Maybe you are still sore about Lou giving a first for Romanov? Honest question, I’m not trying to be a jerk.

Not only was the trade worth it then, it has proven to be an even BETTER value trade since.

As for your suggestion, who do you even see fitting that criteria?

And yet if you really want to give a fair assessment of any player you would never just quote one stat. You think that's how amateur/pro scouts evaluate a player? +/- is a notable stat, but it's just one piece of the overall puzzle for any player. Lord knows that there have been players with bad to terrible +/- stats over the years that were better than Romanov is.

It is not personal at all with my analysis of Romanov. I didn't like the Pageau trade either, but yet I love the person/player (back when he was good). My problem with Romanov isn't him at all - It's about Lou's overall philosophy in roster building which is...Overpay in trade assets and cap space for middle players, and then have to use picks to bail out of their contracts a few years later when the player is no longer worth the contract and he's desperate for cap space.

Talk about the way to build an average team that ultimately goes nowhere.

To me if you're going to use 1st round picks they should be as part of a package for a truly impact/elite player - Not middle of the road guys like Pageau or Romanov. That's why I believe that the Horvat trade was philosophically Lou's best move. At the time is was probably the most fair deal he did, but most importantly...It was for a great player. He needs to do more moves like that, but for even better players.

Romanov is a nice player, but if you want to really win a Cup you need more impactful players. And for me he doesn't impact the game enough. I'd rather have Dobson at 8M/season than Romanov at 5M/season, especially when every year you see very cheap players impact their teams. Every year that Lou is the GM we're going to need as much cap space as possible and I'd rather shift as much cap space as possible to truly top players.

 

[12Dog]

I think Nelson is a bigger guy to move on from than KP, but both can be useful assets as well. Islanders should use one of those two instead of P&P for any of a trade with Winnipeg or whoever.

You rather keep Pelech?
He was terrible before Trotz, barely adequate, and he’s either playing injured or in the wrong system since Trotz left
If someone offered me a bag of pucks for him, I’d pack his bags
That’s a spot that is in desperate need of improvement, especially in skating and breakout passes