Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[BelovedIsles]

Lou… just do something so there is a tangible basis to all these posts.

‘Just doooo it…dooo it.’

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Honest questions

How many moves is too much?
How much is not enough?

We usually experience summers with very, very few moves.

This summer will have to be more about "how many are too few?" in light of recent history.

It can't simply be the Louriffic rinse & repeat we're used to.

Is letting Cal and Martin go a MUST?

Their UFA departures are among the easiest things to let happen.

If it were for the same money, I'd certainly rather have Clutterbuck than Fasching.

But retaining one, if not both, of these wily vets would have to be very much dependent upon moving several of Nelson, Palmieri, Pageau, and Lee. If these four gentlemen are kept, then the open UFA slots need to be filled in another, much more speed-efficient manner.

Do we need to sign a Key signing?
And a major trade?

I see Lou much more inclined to make a bigger deal than to just make a big/key signing. On the one hand, he just doesn't have the cap flexibility right now for an outright signing. On the other, he's gonna need to move some salary to bring something in.

And at this very moment, I'm wondering if he isn't watching closely what's going to be going on with his most recent employer.

Is Toronto going to be in such a phase of shifting that would have Treliving so open to finally bringing in that #3/4 RHD they've so long coveted and been without while clearing off cap hit for next season that they'd entertain a deal of Pulock and Gauthier (simply as an contract fodder) for Marner and RFA Liljgren?

I mean, is Lou going to be able to pounce on that kind of shift and ensuing situational purge?

 

[islesfan3913]

Stop oversimplifying everything. Want to have a real conversation - Be accurate and more nuanced.

First - Marner might be "available" because he's a UFA after next season and a good portion of the Leafs fan base wants him gone, but he has a FULL NO MOVEMENT CLAUSE. He'd have to waive that to come here (and as of now they they'd have to retain 50% of his salary with Lou shipping out more)and what are the chances of that?

And why is it all or nothing in terms of critiquing a player? Every player is perfect in the world and we're allowed to have a detailed conversation about any deficiencies? Both Barzal and Horvat are far from perfect players, but they both net out positive and are part of the solution around here.

To me when you take everything into account Marner nets out negative regardless if he'd be the most talented player on the roster. You want to see a much better use of cap space (while not giving up any assets) that I'd be head over heels for? Go get Stamkos or Marchessault this summer as a UFA. They both have "holes" in their game, but I'd be 100% thrilled if we could sign either.

I agree Marner isn’t overly realistic for the reasons you mentioned, but I’m curious about why you think he’s a net negative. The same opinion is held by Leaf fans but it seems like he’s being used more as a scapegoat than anything else. I get that he isn’t the most physical guy out there, but he’s a legitimate 100 point player who is great defensively and does actually put numbers up in the playoffs despite what Leaf fans want to claim (the actual disappointments there in the playoffs are Matthews and Tavares). I’m just struggling to understand how he can be enough of a net negative for you to rather have Stamkos or Marchessault for probably about $4 million less when Marner is better than both and he’s seven years younger.

 

[periferal]

I agree Marner isn’t overly realistic for the reasons you mentioned, but I’m curious about why you think he’s a net negative. The same opinion is held by Leaf fans but it seems like he’s being used more as a scapegoat than anything else. I get that he isn’t the most physical guy out there, but he’s a legitimate 100 point player who is great defensively and does actually put numbers up in the playoffs despite what Leaf fans want to claim (the actual disappointments there in the playoffs are Matthews and Tavares). I’m just struggling to understand how he can be enough of a net negative for you to rather have Stamkos or Marchessault for probably about $4 million less when Marner is better than both and he’s seven years younger.

I put a huge emphasis on leadership, grit, toughness, etc and Marner is pretty much devoid in all categories. There's a reason why the Leafs have literally 4 elite all-star talents and yet won't come close to winning a Cup...And why much of #LeafsNation is fine launching Marner into the sun.

Let them choke on those lackluster uber-talented "stars." Instead give me guys like Mark Stone, Matt Tkachuk, Pavelski, Stamkos, Landeskog (back when he was healthy, Marchessault, etc - All for less of an AAV than Marner.

 

[doublechili]

First - Marner might be "available" because he's a UFA after next season and a good portion of the Leafs fan base wants him gone, but he has a FULL NO MOVEMENT CLAUSE. He'd have to waive that to come here (and as of now they they'd have to retain 50% of his salary with Lou shipping out more)and what are the chances of that?

It's possible that after the experience Marner has had in TOR being under the microscope of the press and fans 24/7, for once our relative anonymity and suburban environment might actually be a plus with a player.

This team needs an injection of serious skill, puck movement, and especially PP ability. If Marner doesn't backcheck, we've got plenty of that already....

 

[YearlyLottery]

Stop oversimplifying everything. Want to have a real conversation - Be accurate and more nuanced.

First - Marner might be "available" because he's a UFA after next season and a good portion of the Leafs fan base wants him gone, but he has a FULL NO MOVEMENT CLAUSE. He'd have to waive that to come here (and as of now they they'd have to retain 50% of his salary with Lou shipping out more)and what are the chances of that?

And why is it all or nothing in terms of critiquing a player? Every player is perfect in the world and we're allowed to have a detailed conversation about any deficiencies? Both Barzal and Horvat are far from perfect players, but they both net out positive and are part of the solution around here.

To me when you take everything into account Marner nets out negative regardless if he'd be the most talented player on the roster. You want to see a much better use of cap space (while not giving up any assets) that I'd be head over heels for? Go get Stamkos or Marchessault this summer as a UFA. They both have "holes" in their game, but I'd be 100% thrilled if we could sign either.

- Can you list me more than five players since 2010 that used their NMC clause? Now look at how many trades that took place which including a NMC clause. Players want to be wanted.

- I like both Stamkos and Marchessault but I find this interesting from you. Both are older players on the back end of their careers (well Stamkos more). Nothing else to say there though I would love it.

- I get the vibe in your posts that you are ignoring the fact that the cap is going up close to $6 million. Not nearly as much cap would have to be sent over the Toronto. Especially if the Isles decide to trade Nelson or Palmieri.

- When has Lou had difficulty keeping the UFA's he trades for? This is a value chance for the isles because his value will be lower.

 

[SI]

We usually experience summers with very, very few moves.

This summer will have to be more about "how many are too few?" in light of recent history.

It can't simply be the Louriffic rinse & repeat we're used to.


Their UFA departures are among the easiest things to let happen.

If it were for the same money, I'd certainly rather have Clutterbuck than Fasching.

But retaining one, if not both, of these wily vets would have to be very much dependent upon moving several of Nelson, Palmieri, Pageau, and Lee. If these four gentlemen are kept, then the open UFA slots need to be filled in another, much more speed-efficient manner.



I see Lou much more inclined to make a bigger deal than to just make a big/key signing. On the one hand, he just doesn't have the cap flexibility right now for an outright signing. On the other, he's gonna need to move some salary to bring something in.

And at this very moment, I'm wondering if he isn't watching closely what's going to be going on with his most recent employer.

Is Toronto going to be in such a phase of shifting that would have Treliving so open to finally bringing in that #3/4 RHD they've so long coveted and been without while clearing off cap hit for next season that they'd entertain a deal of Pulock and Gauthier (simply as an contract fodder) for Marner and RFA Liljgren?

I mean, is Lou going to be able to pounce on that kind of shift and ensuing situational purge?

It will have to start with an ask since both have trade protection - Marner are you willing to go to the Island and Pulock are you willing to waive for Toronto. If both are open to it, then I would certainly think there is a stronger package; one that would close the $ gap. I would be all about a Marner for Pulock deal.

Marner, Barzal, Horvat, and Nelson is a very good top-tier F group.

And some of the things people are bitching about Marner- can be coached as well as a new environment and culture will have a positive impact

 

[SI]

I don’t expect much change. I think Martin will be back. Cal I am not sure if. Would not surprise me to see them both back. Lou likes the roster. Has said it on a number of occasions. I think he can convince himself that a full year with Roy will help solve some of the issues. Looking at the contracts we have I don’t see much room to move people. They are mostly med/long term with protection of some sort. I would expect pretty much the same team back next year with a couple adjustments. I’d be shocked if we trade Nelson.

I hope not.
Most likely one of Nelson or Pageau is gone... and a free agent is signed.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

- Can you list me more than five players since 2010 that used their NMC clause?

How would you even know?

 

[YearlyLottery]

How would you even know?

These things typically get reported when players actually use them. Here is an example:

Report: Bruins goalie Linus Ullmark used no-trade clause to block move

The Bruins didn’t move a goalie before Friday’s NHL trade deadline. Here’s what GM Don Sweeney had to say about it.

www.nbcsportsboston.com

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

These things typically get reported when players actually use them.

 

[Throttle]

Just because I don’t know which GM candidates are available doesn’t mean that there shouldn’t be an effort made to find one.

Since I didn’t start playing armchair owner yet means I can’t advocate for Lou to move on? That’s silly. The last 3 years Lou Lamoriello has failed to accomplish objectives and goals. If that was one of my employees, he would not be working for me anymore.

Beyond the ‘Cup’ does anyone know what those goals and objectives are/were?

If that was the only goal, then the turnover rate amongst GMs would be significant, yet, it is not. Rather, the coaches are the ones that move on routinely.

Owners are not that dumb to see that, which gives credence that teams have plans from their GMs and the owners give the benefit to follow them. When the plan doesn’t work anymore, then the owner moves on from the GM.

 

[Throttle]

What "phase" would you say the Islanders are in currently? The "contending window is shut as they are about to be over the hill with zero young talent coming up through the system" phase?

Without under 22 talent coming up through the ranks, the Isles are in a re-position phase.

They need to re-allocate the roster spots they have and like I have said many times, they need to make a statement trade from forward and defense. Adjust the player mix (and cap allocation). The statement trade should also be a dependency on signing a player via UFA, this way the trade adjusts the mix and UFA signing backfills the outbound player(s).

The goaltending is set and it’s tbd whether that’s a good, great, or poor thing ahead.

 

[islesfan3913]

I put a huge emphasis on leadership, grit, toughness, etc and Marner is pretty much devoid in all categories. There's a reason why the Leafs have literally 4 elite all-star talents and yet won't come close to winning a Cup...And why much of #LeafsNation is fine launching Marner into the sun.

Let them choke on those lackluster uber-talented "stars." Instead give me guys like Mark Stone, Matt Tkachuk, Pavelski, Stamkos, Landeskog (back when he was healthy, Marchessault, etc - All for less of an AAV than Marner.

We’ve had leadership, grit, and toughness on our team for years now and it’s gotten us basically nowhere outside of two ECF appearances in shortened seasons. At some point, you need actual talent to win and in todays game youth, speed, and skill is a must and Marner provides all three, especially compared to what we have. The reasons why the Leafs won’t come close to winning go well beyond Marner and the only reason why Leafs fans want to launch him into the sun is because they don’t want to go after the two golden boys in Tavares and Matthews, both of whom have massively underperformed in the playoffs. Marner on the other hand has actually been the best scorer for Toronto in the playoffs during the years of this core based on PTS/G, and he’s often times not exactly playing with the highest level talent possible. Even last night he made a perfect pass into a teammates stick for what should’ve been an easy goal only for his teammate to botch it.

Marner on the Isles would immediately become our best player and would probably be the most skilled player and biggest star since Turgeon. Tavares is the only other that comes close. I agree that he’s soft, but it’s about time we actually got skilled players in a time period in the game where skill constantly beats grit and physicality.

 

[MJF]

Beyond the ‘Cup’ does anyone know what those goals and objectives are/were?

If that was the only goal, then the turnover rate amongst GMs would be significant, yet, it is not. Rather, the coaches are the ones that move on routinely.

Owners are not that dumb to see that, which gives credence that teams have plans from their GMs and the owners give the benefit to follow them. When the plan doesn’t work anymore, then the owner moves on from the GM.

22 GMs are in their current positions 5 seasons or less. I’d call that pretty significant movement.

 

[mm11]

Marner? A kings Ransom I would suspect. What do I know.

 

[Throttle]

22 GMs are in their current positions 5 seasons or less. I’d call that pretty significant movement.

Well, if there’s 5 year plans and most have missed the playoffs routinely during that time, it’s really not.

Re-run your numbers of teams making the playoffs 5/6 past years, what’s the GM status of those making the playoffs?

 

[Throttle]

Marner? A kings Ransom I would suspect. What do I know.

Buying ‘low’ on Marner may be a smart move. Does seem like to make that work there needs to be adults in the room on the acquirer though. Do the Isles have that?

 

[SI]

- Can you list me more than five players since 2010 that used their NMC clause? Now look at how many trades that took place which including a NMC clause. Players want to be wanted.

- I like both Stamkos and Marchessault but I find this interesting from you. Both are older players on the back end of their careers (well Stamkos more). Nothing else to say there though I would love it.

- I get the vibe in your posts that you are ignoring the fact that the cap is going up close to $6 million. Not nearly as much cap would have to be sent over the Toronto. Especially if the Isles decide to trade Nelson or Palmieri.

- When has Lou had difficulty keeping the UFA's he trades for? This is a value chance for the isles because his value will be lower.

There are certainly many, but what the NMC or NTC gives is the player power on where they can go or if they do not want to go at all.
Krug stop a trade to Philly this offseason.

MGMT will have to ask and engage the player if they are willing to go somewhere else. In the case of someone like Tavares or Marner, they have full control and do not need to do anything but play their contracts out. With regard to someone like Pelech or Pulock, they would have to be asked if they were willing to waive... Both have M-NTC later in their contract, so there will be 16 teams they would prefer not to go to.

 

[SI]

We usually experience summers with very, very few moves.

This summer will have to be more about "how many are too few?" in light of recent history.

It can't simply be the Louriffic rinse & repeat we're used to.


Their UFA departures are among the easiest things to let happen.

If it were for the same money, I'd certainly rather have Clutterbuck than Fasching.

But retaining one, if not both, of these wily vets would have to be very much dependent upon moving several of Nelson, Palmieri, Pageau, and Lee. If these four gentlemen are kept, then the open UFA slots need to be filled in another, much more speed-efficient manner.



I see Lou much more inclined to make a bigger deal than to just make a big/key signing. On the one hand, he just doesn't have the cap flexibility right now for an outright signing. On the other, he's gonna need to move some salary to bring something in.

And at this very moment, I'm wondering if he isn't watching closely what's going to be going on with his most recent employer.

Is Toronto going to be in such a phase of shifting that would have Treliving so open to finally bringing in that #3/4 RHD they've so long coveted and been without while clearing off cap hit for next season that they'd entertain a deal of Pulock and Gauthier (simply as an contract fodder) for Marner and RFA Liljgren?

I mean, is Lou going to be able to pounce on that kind of shift and ensuing situational purge?

For me, I need to see something major this offseason, especially in the top 6.
I am less concerned about the bottom 6 if there are at least 2 key players added...
At 87.7 and dumping JGP's 5 AAV, the Isles could add Chychrun and Duclair, or DeBrusk and Reilly, or Marchessault and Reilly.

If the cap were to go higher than 87.7, then Isles could possibly add a Chychrun and Marchessault and that would be a very good offseason.

The Cap will soon be set and that should give teams a better idea about what they can spend, so hopefully there is more than 87.7 to spend.

If no conversations are had about NTC's, then the obvious move is Pageau

My expectation is that Dobson will be resigned - LL has resigned every key RFA or UFA a season early - i.e., Sorokin, Barzal, Pulock.

 

[Osakahaus]

Lets hope that the isles have their eyes set out on Vegas btw

 

[IslesNorway]

I expect little from this offseason. I do fully expect long term extensions for Dobson and Nelson though.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Marner? A kings Ransom I would suspect. What do I know.

I don't think so because there simply aren't a lot of teams out there who could A) take on a 10.something contract and B) would do so for a guy who presents the uncertainty of a player one year removed from free agency.

He certainly wouldn't be as easy to move as many think by looking at his numbers.

Interestingly, Matt Martin was Marner's big protector and guide when Marner entered the league. Everyone knows they had a special relationship where Martin had a big brother impact. Just a sidenote as I'm assuming that if Martin isn't re-upped, he'll remain with the organization in some capacity for sure.

 

[seafoam]

Lets hope that the isles have their eyes set out on Vegas btw

I’d be interested highly interested in Marchessault specifically.

Actually, I think Carrier and Amadio would round out the bottom six in a very nice way as well. Similar to when we added Grabo & Kule as a package deal that one offseason, I think Carrier and Amadio would have a similar impact and are not going to break the bank.

Nelson-Horvat-Marchessault
Lee-Barzal-Palmieri
Engvall-MacLean-Amadio
Carrier-Cizikas-Holmstrom

Lee in the top six sucks, but there’s a lot of room to shuffle the deck In that proposed lineup.

Stephenson is going to get paid and from what I’ve seen of him he’s not the one creating offense for Vegas, but rather the one finishing. Eichel, Marchessault, Karlsson and Stone are supposed to be their generators.

 

[leeroggy]

Pelech, Pageau, Wally and Jeffries for Nylander and Liljegren would make me horny . . . LOL

Dear TML, you need GRIT and we have it in abundance! Nylander sucks and you guys know it! Even if he did score the last 3 goals for you, including a 3rd-period Game 7 one that could have held up.

Plus, he knows there's no crying in hockey! Dear TML, FREE WILLY NOW!