Roster Building XX: How Many Patents Does Your GM Have?

[Big Daddy Cane]

One year contract for Necas now isn't the best asset management as it is too easy for him to just take his QO next summer and walk to UFA.

His QO, assuming the 1 year deal is in that Fiala/Bratt/Reinhart range, costs him money.

All 3 of those players signed mid to long-term deals in their last RFA summers.

EDIT: Arbitration is the pathway to free agency, but it will be well past time for him to lock in a big contract. I don't see it.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

tweet deleted, what'd I miss?

Think it was about Brady Tkachuk potentially being available.

 

[Tryamw]

Continue here.

Must we?

 

[Lempo]

His QO, assuming the 1 year deal is in that Fiala/Bratt/Reinhart range, costs him money.

All 3 of those players signed mid to long-term deals in their last RFA summers.

EDIT: Arbitration is the pathway to free agency, but it will be well past time for him to lock in a big contract. I don't see it.

Yes, and no. He would lose some millions short-term for 2024-26 but would be in good position to recover them by having an UFA auction on himself in 2026.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Yeah, it looks like it might come down to a choice between Necas or Jake.

Which is better: Necas at 8years/7.5 or Guenztal at 8years/9.5?

Guenztal obviously has more risk at a higher cost, but has also shown more chemistry with some of our players in 30 games than Necas has for his entire career here.

 

[Tryamw]

You missed it, we acquired Dahlin

Don't tell @sabremike

 

[cptjeff]

Yeah, it looks like it might come down to a choice between Necas or Jake.

Which is better: Necas at 8years/7.5 or Guenztal at 8years/9.5?

Guenztal obviously has more risk at a higher cost, but has also shown more chemistry with some of our players in 30 games than Necas has for his entire career here.

Guentzel every day and twice on Saturday. Necas at 7.5 is a joke. He had one big year where he put up points and wasn't a total turd defensively for most of the year. But only most of it. This year, he had one 15 game stretch where he looked like a superstar. But then back to being ineffective and bleeding goals. You wanna talk about risk? Guenzel has some risk of falling off as he ages, but Necas has much more risk in that he has never actually shown that he can be half the player that Guentzel is. He's not a 19 year old prospect any more. You can only sell the idea of promise and development for so long. Risk is signing a 25 year old guy to a big deal in the hopes that maybe he becomes a completely different player overnight.

I'm not paying that guy 7 million bucks. If he wanted a big raise he needed to play better. He didn't. And time's up.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Yes, and no. He would lose some millions short-term for 2024-26 but would be in good position to recover them by having an UFA auction on himself in 2026.

How many players actually go down that path? The only recent notables off the top of my head are Stone (trade and sign at the deadline) and Hayes (actually went to UFA). Fiala, Bratt, Reinhart, Trouba, Dubois, DeBrincat, Meier and Tkachuk all passed up on the opportunity and signed mid to long-term deals instead.

 

[Svechhammer]

Yeah, it looks like it might come down to a choice between Necas or Jake.

Which is better: Necas at 8years/7.5 or Guenztal at 8years/9.5?

Guenztal obviously has more risk at a higher cost, but has also shown more chemistry with some of our players in 30 games than Necas has for his entire career here.

If it's between them and the salaries are in the same ballpark, go with Jake everyday and twice on Sunday. He's a better fit for what we want to do and we won't need to have conversations about how to make him work on this team, we already see he makes us better. Necas is a square peg trying to fit into a triangular hole

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Much rather give necas 6-8 x 7.7 than jake 8x8+ and im not even a big fan of necas’ game

 

[WreckingCrew]

Just goes to show it's not the system or his usage that is holding him back, it's his own play. He has never fully adjusted to the smaller NA rinks, and it rears it's ugly head each and every time defenses tighten up against him.

Maybe he eventually figures it out, but I'm kind of tired of waiting and I don't want to waste the 2C spot on someone who is still trying to figure things out 4 years into his career at wing.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795106131297042766

Yeah that's a no from me

That's a rich ask for a guy who's more consistently a 50pt winger than 70pt C...maybe that's just his ask from the Canes bc he's not happy? Worst case let him get 1yr arb @ $5M and kick the can down the road a year

 

[3CanesInTheBox]

Yeah, it looks like it might come down to a choice between Necas or Jake.

Which is better: Necas at 8years/7.5 or Guenztal at 8years/9.5?

Guenztal obviously has more risk at a higher cost, but has also shown more chemistry with some of our players in 30 games than Necas has for his entire career here.

Yikes. Tough one. Jake is 30, right? I think signing him would be an affirmation that we are going "all-in" for the next 5ish years and it's worth him hobbling about for the last couple of years. I could understand that.

Obviously Nachos is better age-wise and maybe even potential-wise, but is the org ready to adjust their style? I mean, has Necas even ever played on a line with Aho or been given a chance at Center? I could understand keeping Nachos as well even if it's not likely.

Or maybe a magical unicorn will fall out of the air during free agency. Who knows.

 

[bleedgreen]

If not a star piece, a really-good premium-position player makes sense. I know some folks here are skeptical of Hronek, but organizationally-speaking, a long-term fixture at RHD makes sense for a Necas return package.

I like the fit of Hronek, but we’d have to get him signed too.

I struggle with the idea of getting just as good a piece as Necas is back in trade as a concept. Usually doesn’t work that way when you’re moving a piece on like this. Everyone knows he’s done here, it’s rare you get that value back.

 

[HisIceness]

I'm going to be disappointed when Necas tears it up elsewhere but the team has hitched the wagon to Rod and friends. There's just no reason to keep kicking the can down the road.

We know what we're getting with Jake.

 

[spockBokk]

Much rather give necas 6-8 x 7.7 than jake 8x8+ and im not even a big fan of necas’ game

This is my preference too, but I think it’s more likely they keep Guentzel and trade Necas.

We know what we're getting with Jake.

He had a great regular season run, yes, but he and Necas were equals in the post-season, with Necas playing lower in the lineup with lesser line mates.

I’d feel better extending the younger player in this instance, even thought, again, I don’t think that is what’s going to happen.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Regardless, we need to pick one and commit to it. If we try and get both, we’re likely to lose both, and that’s worst case scenario.

 

[3CanesInTheBox]

This is my preference too, but I think it’s more likely they keep Guentzel and trade Necas.



He had a great regular season run, yes, but he and Necas were equals in the post-season, with Necas playing lower in the lineup with lesser line mates.

I’d feel better extending the younger player in this instance, even thought, again, I don’t think that is what’s going to happen.

Yup, Nachos played with Marty and Drury for most of the playoffs? Yuck.

Definitely an X-Factor. But, again, I don't think there's necessarily a 'wrong' decision. Just a tough one.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Some Canes tidbits ~27-28mins in:



-they have a “long list” of GM candidates
-Tulsky is most likely promotion if they keep it in house
-mentions Chuck Fletcher as a possibility
-doubles down on Hronek speculation on potential deal with VAN
-Slavin a proirity
-more potential for keeping Pesce or Skjei with Waddell gone

It's not like a Fletcher like hire would be exciting but someone in that vein probably makes the sense if they need an old boys type to schmooze the league.

It might be sexier to bring in the young guy like a Darche but it wouldn't make sense. That type of guy likely alienates Tulsky being brought in from a similar role and is more likely to want more control in his first kick at the big chair. A guy like that can afford to be selective with the situation.

Guys like Fletcher (or Waddell when he was given the big job here) are likely to have fewer options available to them in the league at this point. It's probably their last opportunity to be the GM (or whatever role they're given if Tulsky gets the big title) even if it's in a collaborative role. It probably makes it easier to accept the situation. And if you do it well, turns out you can earn another opportunity elsewhere if the situation grows stale.

As far as the track record of a guy like that, we know that the collaborative situation is supposed to be a safeguard against one guy making bad decisions. So, let that type of guy fill that specific old boys role if you think it's needed and there's a decent chance it could work.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

LeBrun: No truth to Brady Tkachuk trade rumors, but does Martin Necas want out of Carolina?

The Senators confirmed they have zero intention of trading their captain. Are the Hurricanes, on the other hand, listening on Necas?

www.nytimes.com

Futures only aint likely

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

A Canes fan recently tweeted that Necas had the second-highest even strength TOI among forwards … by one minute behind Aho. Not a minute average, but one total minute accumulated. I thought that was interesting.

It's true. I think a lot of it has to do with Aho gets more PP time and more PK time, so it takes away from the 5v5 time a bit.

5v5:
Aho: 15G, 39 P
Jarvis. 14G, 37 P
Necas: 13G, 32 P

Only Aho and Jarvis (14G, 37P) had more 5v5 points than Necas. Svech had 1 less point in fewer games though.

Most common line mates:
Aho: Jarvis, Teravainen, Svechnikov
Necas: Drury, Bunting, Kotkaniemi

Being on the 2nd PP unit and having Drury/KK and Bunting as your most common line mates in a contract year? Yeah, I can see why he might not be happy.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Just goes to show it's not the system or his usage that is holding him back, it's his own play.

If you look under the covers, it shows that usage IS a part of it.

5v5:
Aho: 15G, 39 P
Necas: 13G, 32 P

So he had 2 less goals and 5 less assists than Aho 5v5 while playing with vastly inferior offensive players.

Most common line mates:
Aho: Jarvis, Teravainen, Svechnikov
Necas: Drury, Bunting, Kotkaniemi

Being on the 2nd PP unit getting less TOI mainly with Noesen, Skjei, TT and Drury vs. being on the 1st unit getting more time with Svech, Jarvis, Bunting/Guentzel and Burns adds to the usage argument.

 

[bleedgreen]

Necas also had 26 pts on the pp primarily playing with the top unit two years ago. He only had 13 playing with less talent and fewer minutes on pp2 this year. Add those 13 pts back to his totals and he’s in the mid 60 pt range which isn’t very far off his good season. Playing with guys like Bunting and KK this year who both struggled to produce much affected his totals overall this year.

It’s fair to some extent to say he didn’t get it done, but you can make an argument that he did pretty well playing with who he did and the usage he got.

He could easily replicate and exceed his best numbers playing consistently with higher end talent and being featured on the pp. Anyone that acquires and pays the contract will use him with the better talent they have to justify the acquisition.

He probably won’t be playing any different or doing anything notably better, he’ll just be getting favorable conditions and will likely show he can produce pretty well in them.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Necas also had 26 pts on the pp primarily playing with the top unit two years ago. He only had 13 playing with less talent and fewer minutes on pp2 this year. Add those 13 pts back to his totals and he’s in the mid 60 pt range which isn’t very far off his good season. Playing with guys like Bunting and KK this year who both struggled to produce much affected his totals overall this year.

It’s fair to some extent to say he didn’t get it done, but you can make an argument that he did pretty well playing with who he did and the usage he got.

He could easily replicate and exceed his best numbers playing consistently with higher end talent and being featured on the pp. Anyone that acquires and pays the contract will use him with the better talent they have to justify the acquisition.

He probably won’t be playing any different or doing anything notably better, he’ll just be getting favorable conditions and will show he can produce pretty well in them.

I do wonder how Necas would have done on the 1st line for a bit with Guentz-Aho, but the whole second line was a mess most of the season because nobody ever meshed (outside the first 15GP where KK/Nachos were PPG).

 

[LakeLivin]

If it comes down to a choice between the two, it isn't just Guentzal (terms) vs Nachos (terms). It's Guentzal plus whatever the trade return for Nachos is vs. Nachos plus what we could pick up in free agency with the extra cap space beyond what Guentzal and the return for Nachos would eat up. I could see those two unknown "pluses" factoring into the decision. Enough moving parts to keep me from suggesting I know what the best move might be . . .

 

[bleedgreen]

I do wonder how Necas would have done on the 1st line for a bit with Guentz-Aho, but the whole second line was a mess most of the season because nobody ever meshed (outside the first 15GP where KK/Nachos were PPG).

And we talk about Necas never meshing anyone and putting it on him. I suspect that’s a reciprocal thing. Other than Kuzy he hasn’t had a very talented center since the one year with Tro and Necas has improved since then. I think at some point we just left him the second line and just ran through everyone else to see what sticks. Bunting couldn’t even get the system, that’s not on Necas. No one could get KK out of his funk. Necas wasn’t bad with Drury I thought, Drury just keeps it simple and let Necas carry the puck. That’s probably a big part of finding “chemistry” with him.

I would’ve liked to see Necas get more time with Aho. I can remember some very easy goals scored just from their speed together. Obviously Rod wasn’t a big fan or just wanted to spread the depth out as best he could. Necas can create by himself so it makes some sense that he’s the guy that gets bounced to create that depth.