Roster Building XVII: Some Of Us Like Some Parts Of Our Group

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Im not convinced the offense is good enough for a Cup run even if they are fully healthy

It just takes a couple of players getting hot or the team shooting above expected, which we did from December 10th until the end of January

 

[MinJaBen]

It just takes a couple of players getting hot or the team shooting above expected, which we did from December 10th until the end of January

Counting on statistical flukes is always a winning strategy...

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Counting on statistical flukes is always a winning strategy...

Who said i was counting on it? Playoffs and its small sample size has a ton of variables like this.

Believing we can somehow acquire enough to make us immune to random flukes isn’t a winning strategy either because we can’t.

The cap and specifically the division pod playoff format has added a lot of variables to the playoffs.

 

[ElmCityGuy]

My work schedule has prevented me from watching most games live but catch the late night replay and still read this board when I get the chance. My opinion is this team is looking at a 3rd round exit at best. Need to take a big swing at it and shake things up.. a wrong choice and it's a 2nd round exit.. not a big deal. Hit on the right pieces and could make it to the finals.

 

[MinJaBen]

Who said i was counting on it? Playoffs and its small sample size has a ton of variables like this.

Seems like you did when you responded the way you did to a poster who was unconvinced our offense was enough for the playoffs.

Believing we can somehow acquire enough to make us immune to random flukes isn’t a winning strategy either because we can’t.

There is a difference in planning for success based on the unlikely, and protecting against failure from the unlikely. I agree we can't ever make ourselves immune from random chance, but we should never make it our strategy for success, either.

 

[Chrispy]

Who said i was counting on it? Playoffs and its small sample size has a ton of variables like this.

Believing we can somehow acquire enough to make us immune to random flukes isn’t a winning strategy either because we can’t.

No, but you can acquire some pieces to reduce the odds of random flukes

I'm not saying pay through the nose for a rental, but there are both cheaper rentals that will be available that could help (Pacioretty, for example) and longer-term options who will be more expensive, but give the team more value for what they give up.

I agree with Waddell that barring a surprise I don't see a RH center who is available. But there could be lefty 2C options who could help. Nelson may be one if NYI decide to retool. And believe it or not, Lou may like Kotkaniemi as a piece down the middle for the long term. Or maybe he prefers Drury as part of the return, although Drury is an RFA with arbitration rights this off-season. But one thing many of us forget: Drury is 3 months older than Kotkaniemi.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Counting on statistical flukes is always a winning strategy...

Obviously counting on flukes isn’t a strategy, but more often than Not the teams that go further in the playoffs have a higher shooting % than they did in the regular season OR their goalie goes on a super heater.

Vegas did both last year which kind of gives you an idea of how crazy the playoffs are. Most people thought Vegas was a top contender but they also had to have a jump from 10% to 13% shooting percentage and from .916 in the regular season to .920 (Hill was .932 up from .915 in the regular season).

Obviously you need to put yourself in the best position you can’t count on luck, but ultimately you’re gonna need plenty of luck to win it all.

 

[Daeavorn]

Im not convinced the offense is good enough for a Cup run even if they are fully healthy

I think I agree. Our 5v5 offense seems poorer than usual this year. Being elevated by a high scoring PP is quite the unusual situation for us.

Our roster seems imbalanced. We really still only have 5 top 6 guys. I dont know if we can win a cup with that. 2C is still a pretty big hole to me.

 

[AD Skinner]

I really think the Canes will go after Max Pacioretty at the deadline. He knows the team and can score. I’m also hoping if it happens, it’s a minor deal that day.

I think this would be pretty savvy and not cost too much. After more injury issues at the start of the season Patches has 11 points in 21 games

 

[Chrispy]

I think this would be pretty savvy and not cost too much. After more injury issues at the start of the season Patches has 11 points in 21 games

And it should allow them to make another move if they want at forward as Pacioretty insurance.

Edit: But if they do get Pacioretty, it seems like the Don Waddell "2:30 draft day call around" special. If someone gives the Caps something decent early, the Borg are going to miss out on Pacioretty too.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

We are down 10 5v5 goals fewer than last year at this time but also given up 14 more.

Seems like we need more defense!

We are +12 5v5 goals since December 10. We were +28 during that same time period last season too. -15 in scoring and 1 more given up.

 

[Borsig]

It's not the year to burn assets on rentals. We were better the last 2 years than this year.

I'd rather do nothing than burn assets for rentals.

We need a 2c and a way to keep skjei and maybe Chatfield. Jarvis and necas need signed. Maybe turbo on a team friendly deal but meh.These are the priorities.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

TDAs performance the last few games shows Chatty’s performance is more about the system than who is the 3RD

 

[User13452]

It's not the year to burn assets on rentals. We were better the last 2 years than this year.

I'd rather do nothing than burn assets for rentals.

We need a 2c and a way to keep skjei and maybe Chatfield. Jarvis and necas need signed. Maybe turbo on a team friendly deal but meh.These are the priorities.

I just don’t get the this isn’t the year. The canes are in a cup window and have been last few years you should make every attempt to make the team better. Who knows what the team looks like next year and everyone is a year older. This team has more than enough picks and prospects to make moves.

 

[Chrispy]

We are down 10 5v5 goals fewer than last year at this time but also given up 14 more.

Seems like we need more defense!

5x5 GF/60 last year overall: 2.65
5x5 GF/60 this year to date: 2.53

5x5 GA/60 last year overall: 2.12
5x5 GA/60 this year to date: 2.25

Seems pretty even, but it's reasonable to assume the GA/60 looks much better recently than when Kochetkov and Raanta were struggling back in December. I can't find month by month splits of GA/60.

Without any moves, I think GA/60 is likely to get closer to last year's number as the season reaches a conclusion than the GF/60 is.

 

[Borsig]

Tda has always been fine with a defensively competent partner.
Burns and Orlov would be a disaster.
Tda and Orlov is a disaster.
Tda and burns would be a disaster.

Skjei has the unique ability on this team to play as both an ofd and a dfd. It would be a monumentally stupid move to keep Orlov and let him walk, contract years be damned. But you can bet that's what we will do. Sjkei is fine and isn't injury prone.

Chatfield is cheap and competent as well as very fast. Take away the cheap and he's replaceable.

I'd be for re signing tda at the salary he has now or less, pairing him with Skjei. Jettison orlov into the f***ng sun and pay skjei that money. Keep chats if you can. If burns all of a sudden ages out and shits himself you can move tda into that slot because it's worked well.

Third pair you can use FA and try and keep Chatfield. Pesce can walk as far as I'm concerned. Hes not worth what he will ask at all.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Orlov, drink!

 

[Borsig]

Also Jarvis is the most improved forward on the team this year. I'd be locking him up long term. Wonder if he'd go for 8?

At this point idk what to do with Nachos. Given the right center he could really explode. But we need that 2c again.

Next year's team has the potential to look very different from this year.

 

[spockBokk]

Seravalli says in the latest DFO podcast, in his opinion, that CAR is the best fit for Geuntzel, but offers no real inside info.

Says he should return close to the Horvat deal, which I’m not sure the Canes would do, especially considering they’d be unlikely to sign him to an extension.

 

[Lempo]

Orlov, drink!

 

[Chrispy]

Seravalli says in the latest DFO podcast, in his opinion, that CAR is the best fit for Geuntzel, but offers no real inside info.

Says he should return close to the Horvat deal, which I’m not sure the Canes would do, especially considering they’d be unlikely to sign him to an extension.

Horvat deal was Beauvillier (traded to Chicago for a 5th), Raty (2021 2nd round forward), and a 1st. But it was also a month earlier in the season and with 25% retention.

Given Carolina has most of the cap space to make this move ($5.3M as of today of Guentzel's $6M cap hit), there isn't a need to both send an expensive roster player back and have 25% retention.

Would Carolina do a 1st and a prospect for Guentzel? I don't think they would for a rental, but he would fit well. Would Pittsburgh prefer a young roster player (Drury) and a 1st given they are still trying to retool around Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Karlsson?

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

If Tkachuk is truly able to be had (which I doubt), then I 100% throw Nikishin on the table. That's the type of player you did the "asset collecting" for IMO.

nah, Brady isn't on Matthew's level, I woudn't trade a guy whose potential is best D in the league who we'd have cheap to start for a solid first line winger who is on a big contract.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The 1st in the Horvat deal had a mid-1st expectation. Vancouver’s ability to flip it for a player of some quality with term right away reflected that as well. This 1st won’t be as valuable. Nadeau or Morrow would have to be in there to match, presumably.

Pittsburgh can’t trade for what the market doesn’t have to offer, though. Duchene/Hall/Horvat, the high end rentals of this era, all saw bubble teams step up and be aggressive. If none do here, the price probably comes down.

 

[Lempo]

A Carolina 1st is almost a 2nd. And I hope we aren't doing anything silly to get a higher one to flip.

 

[spockBokk]

nah, Brady isn't on Matthew's level, I woudn't trade a guy whose potential is best D in the league who we'd have cheap to start for a solid first line winger who is on a big contract.

Best D in the league?

I like Nikishin as much as the next guy but the hype train is getting to be a bit much. If B Tkachuk were truly available and it took Nikishin + to get him, bye bye Nikishin. I’d take the sure thing.