Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown

[Shesterkybomb]

That's not what you said that caused me to comment though.

You commented when you didnt know what the discussion was about.

 

[mas0764]

You commented when you didnt know what the discussion was about.

I knew exactly what the discussion was about. You need to own up that you stated something that was untrue while trying to make a way more relevant (and probably correct) point.

Here's the post:

Speculation: - Roster Building Thread XXXVII: Strome 6 Year Extension?

Avery16 said "Fast has not been playing with Panarin the majority of the season."

You responded "Yes he has."

Your chart shows that Fast has been with Panarin a minority of the time, NOT the majority. Therefore when you said "Yes he has," that was incorrect.

What you are trying to say is that no one has played RW with Panarin more than Fast. That may be true.

But not as you stated it.

Words matter.

 

[Avery16]

You jumped in too late, the issue was whether Strome and Panarin could benefit from a better RW, Avery said they didnt play much together and that Fast was up and down the lineup.

Nope. It was about whether Fast was or was not in the same position to benefit in points from playing with Panarin as Strome has been.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Nope. It was about whether Fast was or was not in the same position to benefit in points from playing with Panarin as Strome has been.

And has he?

 

[Avery16]

Yes he has

 

[mas0764]

Nope. It was about whether Fast was or was not in the same position to benefit in points from playing with Panarin as Strome has been.

To be fair here, the difference between 56.5% and 43% seems like it wouldn't matter all that much. If Strome is seeing a big bump, Fast should be as well.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

To be fair here, the difference between 56.5% and 43% seems like it wouldn't matter all that much. If Strome is seeing a big bump, Fast should be as well.

EXACTLY which is why I was saying that line would benefit from a better RW.

 

[mas0764]

I'll take the blame for this one. About 20 pages ago I pointed out -- in response to a comment that anyone would see their stats improve with Panarin and in defense of Strome -- that Fast's stats are still junk. That set off this whole discussion about how much time Fast has really spent with Panarin. Majority, plurality, whatever. My point was and remains that it's best not to mess with something that works (Panarin-Strome).

I'm actually not sure Fast's stats are still "junk." He is on pace for a career high of 36 points.

Over the four years prior to this one, Fast has been averaging about 0.366 points per game, this year that has jumped to 0.444 points per game.

This year Strome is at 0.892 ppg, and the last 5 years he has averaged 0.461 ppg (I use 5 for Strome instead of 4 because his ascendancy to useful player seemed to have happened 5 years ago, versus 4 for Fast).

They eached experienced a substantial jump this year, Strome's was just much larger.... but Fast is kind of a defensive forward whose role probably isn't to chip in points. Plus, again, the lesser time spent with Panarin.

I'm not weighing in on the ultimate debate, but these are the numbers as I see them.

 

[Leetch3]

One of the benefits of a two year contract would be the ability to expose Strome in the expansion draft. If he is worth protecting in a year, fine. If not, he could be traded at the deadline next year. No one is give him a long term extension.

I don't see any benefit to exposing strome in the expansion draft...he has way too much value (especially after a 2nd year playing with panarin). if we aren't protecting him and he's not part of the long term plans then you have to trade him.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I'm actually not sure Fast's stats are still "junk." He is on pace for a career high of 36 points.

Over the four years prior to this one, Fast has been averaging about 0.366 points per game, this year that has jumped to 0.444 points per game.

This year Strome is at 0.892 ppg, and the last 5 years he has averaged 0.461 ppg (I use 5 for Strome instead of 4 because his ascendancy to useful player seemed to have happened 5 years ago, versus 4 for Fast).

They eached experienced a substantial jump this year, Strome's was just much larger.... but Fast is kind of a defensive forward whose role probably isn't to chip in points. Plus, again, the lesser time spent with Panarin.

I'm not weighing in on the ultimate debate, but these are the numbers as I see them.

For sure, I just wonder how many points Strome and Panarin would have if they had a shooter on the other side instead of Fast, I'm sure there would be another bump.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Happy Birthday Hank!!!!

38 years young and double the age of Kakko.

When Henrik Lundqvist was drafted, Nils Lundkvist's mom was 8 months pregnant and Kaapo Kakko was just conceived

 

[Tawnos]

There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that Fast has been Panarin’s regular RW the majority of the season. The problem with looking at numbers and percentages is that they don’t reflect irregular shifts. What do I mean by irregular shifts? Panarin takes the first shift after basically every single PK. Fast is never with him on those shifts because Fast was killing the penalty. Fast also isn’t on the ice for late game pushes. Those are irregular shifts.

In most games this season, he’s been the guy who takes the regular RW shifts with Panarin and Strome. He’s been the guy listed in the “opening lineups at the top of your screen brought to you by Chase” as the RW on that line for most of the year. At least since early December.

 

[Ola]

For sure, I just wonder how many points Strome and Panarin would have if they had a shooter on the other side instead of Fast, I'm sure there would be another bump.

At the same time, Fast does a lot of dirty work on that line, maybe they play a lot less with the puck without him on it.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

At the same time, Fast does a lot of dirty work on that line, maybe they play a lot less with the puck without him on it.

It's possible too.

 

[Blueshirts777]

There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind that Fast has been Panarin’s regular RW the majority of the season. The problem with looking at numbers and percentages is that they don’t reflect irregular shifts. What do I mean by irregular shifts? Panarin takes the first shift after basically every single PK. Fast is never with him on those shifts because Fast was killing the penalty. Fast also isn’t on the ice for late game pushes. Those are irregular shifts.

In most games this season, he’s been the guy who takes the regular RW shifts with Panarin and Strome. He’s been the guy listed in the “opening lineups at the top of your screen brought to you by Chase” as the RW on that line for most of the year. At least since early December.

You're moving the goalposts to fit the narrative, every shift counts.

 

[SA16]

This is a very fair point. But just wanted to show that people may be taking his point totals a bit for granted.

It would be a fair point if it was true. There have been 3.03 goals/game/team this year. All the way up from....3.01 last year. And...2.97 the year before (which is when scoring actually went up)

 

[SA16]

I'll take the blame for this one. About 20 pages ago I pointed out -- in response to a comment that anyone would see their stats improve with Panarin and in defense of Strome -- that Fast's stats are still junk. That set off this whole discussion about how much time Fast has really spent with Panarin. Majority, plurality, whatever. My point was and remains that it's best not to mess with something that works (Panarin-Strome).

Fast has scored 2.22 pts/60 in 487 minutes with Panarin which is first line production. For comparison that number would rank 62nd overall and is right about the same as guys like Forsberg, Scheifele, and Barzal for the year. Fast with Panarin is not a problem at all. In fact it's only marginal lower than Strome who I'm told has insane chemistry with Panarin and needs to be kept on the team to play with him because we know it works (2.40 for Strome).

I don't see any benefit to exposing strome in the expansion draft...he has way too much value (especially after a 2nd year playing with panarin). if we aren't protecting him and he's not part of the long term plans then you have to trade him.

Yes exposing Strome makes no sense whatsoever. If he continues to put up points with Panarin then he obviously would either be protected or actually traded for something of value. They are not going to expose a player who scores 60+ points despite his other major issues.

 

[mas0764]

Fast has scored 2.22 pts/60 in 487 minutes with Panarin which is first line production. For comparison that number would rank 62nd overall and is right about the same as guys like Forsberg, Scheifele, and Barzal for the year. Fast with Panarin is not a problem at all. In fact it's only marginal lower than Strome who I'm told has insane chemistry with Panarin and needs to be kept on the team to play with him because we know it works (2.40 for Strome).

Wow, that is interesting. What possibly explains the vast gulf in total points for Strome v. Panarin?

The percentages in their play time with Panarin chart seemed to be 43% vs 56%.

That doesn't seem to explain the basically double point difference.

 

[Tawnos]

You're moving the goalposts to fit the narrative, every shift counts.

Yeah, I am not. People who think that Fast hasn’t spent the majority of the season with Panarin are being unnecessarily particular about what qualifies as Fast being Panarins RW. It’s stupid. Fast has definitely played enough with Panarin to be a subject of this conversation.

The whole point here is that you need the chemistry AND the talent to put up strong offensive numbers when playing with high skilled players. Fast doesn’t have the talent, and the evidence of that is that his numbers are still 3rd line caliber despite the prime line mate. (An argument that might be swayed by what @SA16 just posted)

Meanwhile, Strome is putting up pretty strong offensive numbers because he does have the talent to be maximized by the prime line mate.

 

[Tawnos]

Wow, that is interesting. What possibly explains the vast gulf in total points for Strome v. Panarin?

The percentages in their play time with Panarin chart seemed to be 43% vs 56%.

That doesn't seem to explain the basically double point difference.

PP production.

 

[Crease]

It would be a fair point if it was true. There have been 3.03 goals/game/team this year. All the way up from....3.01 last year. And...2.97 the year before (which is when scoring actually went up)

Not going to look it up but I swear player point totals are being amplified by generous assist handouts. I swear I've seen two apples handed out on a steal and breakaway.

 

[SA16]

Not going to look it up but I swear player point totals are being amplified by generous assist handouts. I swear I've seen two apples handed out on a steal and breakaway.

I doubt it. They have stat corrections posted all the time after the games/next day. You can see them on the NHL Public Relations twitter. It might be like that during the game but it usually gets fixed.

 

[charliemurphy]

0-17-0

I was going with 6-12 unless Shesty is 100% and carries the team.

 

[charliemurphy]

depends on when Shesterkin gets back. With him we have an elite offense and goaltender that also makes our D a lot better.

Without him we have a good offense instead of elite because we’re playing from behind most of the time, our D isn’t as good and our goaltending is average.

so if he’s back next week and Georgiev finds a way to win 2 of the next 3 games I still think we make it. If he misses 2 more weeks forget it.

Make what? The playoffs?
Oh boy, I'm not going near that discussion. I'm all for taking advantage of this draft.

 

[NYR Viper]

It would be a fair point if it was true. There have been 3.03 goals/game/team this year. All the way up from....3.01 last year. And...2.97 the year before (which is when scoring actually went up)

I took it more to mean the previous season where Nash, Zuccarello, etc were being shown. I know scoring is up from about 4 years ago, that sounds and feels right