Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown

[mas0764]

Again, if that column on the left is percentages, then it has Fast with Panarin for 43% of the year, but not "most" of the year, and not more than Strome either, who is with Panarin 56.5% of the time (which IS "most").

Still, Fast is with Panarin a substantial percentage of the time so there is still an argument to be made for why Fast's numbers aren't more inflated if Strome's are.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Again, if that column on the left is percentages, then it has Fast with Panarin for 43% of the year, but not "most" of the year, and not more than Strome either, who is with Panarin 56.5% of the time (which IS "most").

Still, Fast is with Panarin a substantial percentage of the time so there is still an argument to be made for why Fast's numbers aren't more inflated if Strome's are.

That wasn't the issue. The point was that Strome and Panarin have had Fast on their line for most of the year. Do you disagree with that?

 

[Blue Blooded]

I can tell you the equipment changes in 17-18 we’re barely noticeable. Shooting percentages are up because players are better. You have far fewer 4th line fighters and plugs in the lineups. You have better powerplay structures. Everyone plays a diamond now and teams are moving pucks laterally across the royal road much more frequently in all situations. It’s just a different offensive approach than it’s been in the past. Lot less teams trapping.

the big goalie equipment change came 10 years ago. And that honestly made goalies better.

and that chart you provided shows shooting percentage gradually increasing for 2 years prior to the small change in chest protectors. Which by the wall only rounded out the shoulder wings. Hardly a big change. Most goalies already tucked chestys in and had to use smaller pants. You’re not seeing goals that tick off shoulders or hips and go in at a crazy rate. Miniscule changes

The variance is very small from 2010-11 to 2016-17 and then it takes a huge jump in 2017-18 and stays the same ever since. That to me says something fundamentally changed in 17-18 and has since been constant. I have a hard time believing that you could see such a leap in talent/shift in systems from one season to another and then having it stay so consistent afterwards. A rule change is a much more probable explanation.

 

[mas0764]

Who has played RW with Panarin for the majority of the year? That was the question I'm answering...what's your answer.

The chart you posted doesn't answer that question.

If I had to guess based on what your chart says, the answer is that no one has played RW with Panarin the majority of the year.

The most common might be Fast, but that's not the majority.

 

[Avery16]

Who has played RW with Panarin for the majority of the year? That was the question I'm answering...what's your answer.

Fast has played there a bunch. A plurality of games for sure. But not nearly as often as Strome has played with Panarin.

 

[mas0764]

That wasn't the issue. The point was that Strome and Panarin have had Fast on their line for most of the year. Do you disagree with that?

It is exactly the issue that caused me to comment.

And again, the answer would be decidedly "no" based on your chart.

It's only 38% of the time, that's not the majority it seems.

Unless those numbers are not percentages.

 

[charliemurphy]

So what do folks think their record will be from here thru 4/4?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Fast has played there a bunch. A plurality of games for sure. But not nearly as often as Strome has played with Panarin.

You are changing the question. We said Stome and Panarin would benefit from having a better rw. You said they didnt play much together.

 

[Avery16]

I mean you are wrong and you should just admit it.

If I were wrong there would be no reason to post misleading “evidence”

 

[Shesterkybomb]

It is exactly the issue that caused me to comment.

And again, the answer would be decidedly "no" based on your chart.

It's only 38% of the time, that's not the majority it seems.

Unless those numbers are not percentages.

You jumped in too late, the issue was whether Strome and Panarin could benefit from a better RW, Avery said they didnt play much together and that Fast was up and down the lineup.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

So what do folks think their record will be from here thru 4/4?

7-8-2.

 

[Crease]

Can we move past this particular discussion?

 

[Avery16]

You are changing the question. We said Stome and Panarin would benefit from having a better rw. You said they didnt play much together.

Lol, here we go. No. You said Fast played with Panarin all season. I said no he did not.

 

[Kovalev27]

The variance is very small from 2010-11 to 2016-17 and then it takes a huge jump in 2017-18 and stays the same ever since. That to me says something fundamentally changed in 17-18 and has since been constant. I have a hard time believing that you could see such a leap in talent/shift in systems from one season to another and then having it stay so consistent afterwards. A rule change is a much more probable explanation.

it is not from a slight change to the shoulder wings of a goalies chest protector lol. Just isn’t. It’s all the things I mentioned to you. You’ve seen tough guys disappear virtually overnight.

your chart shows a gradual increase for 2 years prior to that slight equipment change (again it was not a major overhaul like 10 years ago). It’s not a huge leap. Systems change. The hockey has gotten faster and faster in particular after those penguin Cup wins. It’s much more offensive Hockey. Again you aren’t seeing goals hit guys in the shoulder and go in. Goalies are bigger than ever.

what you are also seeing if you want to talk about goaltenders is some of the true star goalies in this league the last 10 years Rinne Lundqvist Fleury Quick Crawford Luongo getting old. And young guys having to replace them. They aren’t going to be stars right away so there are some inconsistencies But that is happening or has happened the last couple years.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Lol, here we go. No. You said Fast played with Panarin all season. I said no he did not.

Nope I never said that, quote me.

 

[aufheben]

2019-20 line combinations

 

[Kovalev27]

So what do folks think their record will be from here thru 4/4?

depends on when Shesterkin gets back. With him we have an elite offense and goaltender that also makes our D a lot better.

Without him we have a good offense instead of elite because we’re playing from behind most of the time, our D isn’t as good and our goaltending is average.

so if he’s back next week and Georgiev finds a way to win 2 of the next 3 games I still think we make it. If he misses 2 more weeks forget it.

 

[mas0764]

You are changing the question. We said Stome and Panarin would benefit from having a better rw. You said they didnt play much together.

That's a make-able argument.

But the chart you posted has Fast with Panarin 43% of the time and Strome with Panarin 56.5% of the time.

Therefore Strome is with Panarin most of the time and Fast is not with Panarin most of the time.

Fast does seem to be the 2nd most common linemate of Panarin, though, but it's still a minority of the time, not a majority.

But the argument you want to be making here is that as the second most common linemate of Panarin at 43% of the time compared to Strome's 56.5%, why does Panarin have similar points? He's the next closest skater in terms of time with Panarin, so why isn't Fast having a career year? Though I actually think Fast is kinda having a career year, but it's gonna be way below 40 points.

The next thing I would investigate would be Fast's projected totals this year versus his career average prior to this year (taking out rookie year outliers... I'd actually probably start his age 24 season). I'd then compare that to Strome's projected totals versus his career average prior to this year.

See how each player increased this season playing with Panarin.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

2019-20 line combinations

Exactly

 

[mas0764]

You jumped in too late, the issue was whether Strome and Panarin could benefit from a better RW, Avery said they didnt play much together and that Fast was up and down the lineup.

I know what the issue is. You have stated something that is untrue.

You have a point, you're just not making it well.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

That's a make-able argument.

But the chart you posted has Fast with Panarin 43% of the time and Strome with Panarin 56.5% of the time.

Therefore Strome is with Panarin most of the time and Fast is not with Panarin most of the time.

Fast does seem to be the 2nd most common linemate of Panarin, though, but it's still a minority of the time, not a majority.

But the argument you want to be making here is that as the second most common linemate of Panarin at 43% of the time compared to Strome's 56.5%, why does Panarin have similar points? He's the next closest skater in terms of time with Panarin, so why isn't Fast having a career year? Though I actually think Fast is kinda having a career year, but it's gonna be way below 40 points.

The next thing I would investigate would be Fast's projected totals this year versus his career average prior to this year (taking out rookie year outliers... I'd actually probably start his age 24 season). I'd then compare that to Strome's projected totals versus his career average prior to this year.

See how each player increased this season playing with Panarin.

Panarins most often played with rw would be?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I know what the issue is. You have stated something that is untrue.

You have a point, you're just not making it well.

Nope I haven't....Fast is Panarins most often played with RW.

 

[mas0764]

So what do folks think their record will be from here thru 4/4?

0-17-0

 

[mas0764]

Nope I haven't....Fast is Panarins most often played with RW.

That's not what you said that caused me to comment though.

 

[Crease]

I'll take the blame for this one. About 20 pages ago I pointed out -- in response to a comment that anyone would see their stats improve with Panarin and in defense of Strome -- that Fast's stats are still junk. That set off this whole discussion about how much time Fast has really spent with Panarin. Majority, plurality, whatever. My point was and remains that it's best not to mess with something that works (Panarin-Strome).