Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown

[True Blue]

Brenden Dillon.

Someone I like very much. And a player that I could see being targeted. The questions become 1) can he pair with Trouba 2) given the players that need to be resigned, can he fit in the cap structure? I believe that DeAngelo and Strome will be back at around a total of $11m.

 

[True Blue]

This.

I would be very worried about DeAngelo playing top minutes against the opposition's top players. As well as all of the defensive zone draws.

 

[UnSandvich]

Why the NHL's salary cap is actually unlikely to rise much...

 

[Leetch3]

You said "Lundqvist coming". In the context of this conversation, that implies that you believe that DeAngelo is more expendable due to this. Otherwise why bring up his name?

You can get multiple draft picks for that. As the Rangers are looking to compete for the playoffs, I doubt that they would trade the production of DeAngelo for futures that will not see the ice at MSG for 3-4 years. And is your third pair RD going to be a 55-60 point defenseman?

Which is what I believe will happen. This year or next.

to be fair Lundkvist doesn't need to score 60+ to allow you to trade DeAngelo...I don't think anyone expects him to match Tony offensively...but in that type of deal Tony's offense is being replaced by the young elite forward he brings back. Nils then just needs to chip in enough (while playing good defense) so combined with Fox & Trouba, the blueline takes a minimal hit while getting a huge upgrade up front. We definitely aren't getting more points from the blueline without DeAngelo

 

[Leetch3]

Why the NHL's salary cap is actually unlikely to rise much...

can you summarize since its behind a pay wall?

 

[GAGLine]

can you summarize since its behind a pay wall?

Basically, there's no chance the players will invoke the 5% escalator because escrow is still so high.

The players' only mechanism for trying to get escrow lowered at this point is trying to keep the cap down, which is why that $88.2-million figure the NHL released was so outlandish. That figure would require the league to hit its high revenue projections for the rest of this season and the NHLPA to go with the full five percent inflator to the cap.

Multiple sources on the players' side said on Thursday that has almost no chance of happening. In fact, many believe the cap will not even reach the league's minimum projected figure of $84-million for next season, which would mean an increase of $2.5-million or less.

 

[True Blue]

to be fair Lundkvist doesn't need to score 60+ to allow you to trade DeAngelo...I don't think anyone expects him to match Tony offensively...but in that type of deal Tony's offense is being replaced by the young elite forward he brings back. Nils then just needs to chip in enough (while playing good defense) so combined with Fox & Trouba, the blueline takes a minimal hit while getting a huge upgrade up front. We definitely aren't getting more points from the blueline without DeAngelo

Trading DeAngelo's 55-60 points does mean a minimal hit if Lundqvist "chips in" to help Fox and Trouba. That is a material hit.

Ok, young, elite forward for DeAngelo. Going to presume that this has to be RW, since LW is locked down for the foreseeable future. Who do we have that even starts the conversation? Not Stone. Not Laine. Not Nylander. Svechnikov? I actually would not. Certainly not Reilly Smith.

Prior to Kreider resigning, if DeAngelo HAD to be dealt, I said let's discuss Kyle Connor. Now? Not sure there is a RW that even gets the conversation going.

 

[doomscroll]

Trading DeAngelo's 55-60 points does mean a minimal hit if Lundqvist "chips in" to help Fox and Trouba. That is a material hit.

Ok, young, elite forward for DeAngelo. Going to presume that this has to be RW, since LW is locked down for the foreseeable future. Who do we have that even starts the conversation? Not Stone. Not Laine. Not Nylander. Svechnikov? I actually would not. Certainly not Reilly Smith.

Prior to Kreider resigning, if DeAngelo HAD to be dealt, I said let's discuss Kyle Connor. Now? Not sure there is a RW that even gets the conversation going.

Kyle Connor is a year younger, in the midst of his third 30+ goal season, and is over a P/GP. I don’t see Winnipeg moving him for DeAngelo even with an add from the Rangers’ side.

 

[Leetch3]

Trading DeAngelo's 55-60 points does mean a minimal hit if Lundqvist "chips in" to help Fox and Trouba. That is a material hit.

Ok, young, elite forward for DeAngelo. Going to presume that this has to be RW, since LW is locked down for the foreseeable future. Who do we have that even starts the conversation? Not Stone. Not Laine. Not Nylander. Svechnikov? I actually would not. Certainly not Reilly Smith.

Prior to Kreider resigning, if DeAngelo HAD to be dealt, I said let's discuss Kyle Connor. Now? Not sure there is a RW that even gets the conversation going.

i'm talking hypothetical trade....we aren't trading him unless we get back a forward that will score as many or more points.

 

[charliemurphy]

What do folks think about going after Mikko Lehtonen? Has one year left with Jokerit but maybe something can be worked out to get him out earlier.

 

[True Blue]

Kyle Connor is a year younger, in the midst of his third 30+ goal season, and is over a P/GP. I don’t see Winnipeg moving him for DeAngelo even with an add from the Rangers’ side.

Ok. They they would not have to discuss a 24 year old defenseman who is pacing 60 point seasons.

If I was Gorton and a team came to me, that is my return profile.

Otherwise, for all you that are hot to trade a 24 year old that is putting up numbers unseen in Rangerland for 0ver 20 years, who are you asking for? There's no way that this can be simply for futures.

 

[doomscroll]

Ok. They they would not have to discuss a 24 year old defenseman who is pacing 60 point seasons.

If I was Gorton and a team came to me, that is my return profile.

Otherwise, for all you that are hot to trade a 24 year old that is putting up numbers unseen in Rangerland for 0ver 20 years, who are you asking for? There's no way that this can be simply for futures.

All I’m saying is that Connor has a longer track-record than DeAngelo in terms of high-end offensive production. I can like DeAngelo and want him to stay but also appreciate that there is a cap on his value.

 

[True Blue]

i'm talking hypothetical trade....we aren't trading him unless we get back a forward that will score as many or more points.

So who would you target since the target has narrowed to someone that can play RW with Panarin on the other side?

 

[True Blue]

All I’m saying is that Connor has a longer track-record than DeAngelo in terms of high-end offensive production. I can like DeAngelo and want him to stay but also appreciate that there is a cap on his value.

Ok, so what is the target?

As people throw out trading him, I would like to know the return profile that is being asked for. I have named mine. What is yours?

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

For all the time and energy maniacs like us spend on roster construction ideas, I'm getting the feeling this team will be just fine as long as Zibanejad and Panarin stay healthy for the next few years.

 

[Leetch3]

So who would you target since the target has narrowed to someone that can play RW with Panarin on the other side?

a center would be an option too....love chytil but he's not at the level yet that I'd turn down a 1A to slot behind mika. and I don't think he will be traded because that hypothetical player that i'd traded for either doesn't exist or isn't available.

 

[Off Sides]

So you believe that there is a team out there that would come with an offer sheet of $8.4m for DeAngelo? Not possibly, but do you really believe that a team will do that?

Arbitration awards salary, not term. To avoid going to arbitration, a team and a player sign salaried contracts that have term of more than one year.

They didn't risk anything. Signing Panarin ensured that there is not enough money for a long term deal this year. That is not the case anymore.

There are no such things as non-negotiable compromises. That is not how a negotiation works. There are things that both sides want and the other does not. A contract usually involves giving and getting. Like Kreider's contract.

If DeAngelo believes the Rangers are going to offer him like 6M for a year or two, and some team offers him 7-8M longer term likely up to 5 years, yes I do believe he would maybe sign it, and yes I do believe some team may offer him that even if it costs them a 2021 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Teams are allowed to talk to RFAs prior to July 1st. Agents of current Rangers are allowed to ask the Rangers management what their offer is.

Arbitration does award term, in ADA's case since he has more than 1 RFA year left, it depends on who filled for arbitration. The party who does not fill gets to select a 1 or 2 year term award.

To avoid going to arbitration the team is going to have to offer about what the award would be for anyway. Which is where comparable contracts comes in.

Those comparable contracts can be any contract a RFA signed. It does not matter if they were 1, 2 or even 8, 13 year deals, all that matters is what those contracts had as salary for any RFA year(s) within because it's salary arbitration and comparing RFA year(s) to RFA year(s)

The Rangers risked whatever they did, ADA was forced to risk what he did because the Rangers used up all their cap space instead of using it on him. That usually does not lead to the player taking any sort of discount in future deals.

The arbitration process is non negotiable should it reach the award stage, the team can either sign the deal or let the player walk (at least in this case as the award would be over the threshold for the team not to be able to walk away from)

I know you will compare the players, yet if you read this it may give some insight into how arbitration works.

Few details were made available as to what went on in the hearing. What's clear, however, is that the arbitrator used the three biggest contracts signed by restricted free agent defencemen in recent history to come up with the award: Duncan Keith's 13-year deal that began last year, Brent Seabrook's five-year one that starts this fall and Dion Phaneuf's six-year one that started in 2006.

The arbitration process only allows for Weber's deal to be compared to others given to RFAs, so contracts like those of Brian Campbell and Zdeno Chara don't apply here. But Keith makes $8-million in the first three years of his deal, Seabrook makes $7-million in the first two and Phaneuf has two $7-million years and three $6.5-million years in his.

Weber lands record $7.5-million arbitration award

As you can see, they compared recent contracts of players who had both RFA and UFA years included in their deals. They only used the RFA portions to get a salary comparison. Also note Weber at the time had two RFA years left.

Nurse two RFA years, his salary in them is 5.6M, yet that was with him coming off a 41 point season

Chabot extended, his RFA years go anywhere from 4 to 8M in salary, yet they average 6.5M, coming off 55 points.

Morrissey 8M in his 2 RFA years.

Trouba in his last RFA year is at 12M in salary.

Those are the most recent comparable contracts that have RFA years in them.

I know which two the Rangers would use as comparable, and I know which two DeAngelo would use.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Connor for DeAngelo seems like a fair deal honestly

Although I would have to have evidence Connor can play RW because I believe he's been mostly on the left

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'd have no problem locking up DeAngelo for 7m per season.

Pay your best players and drop the dead weight.

 

[RGY]

Someone I like very much. And a player that I could see being targeted. The questions become 1) can he pair with Trouba 2) given the players that need to be resigned, can he fit in the cap structure? I believe that DeAngelo and Strome will be back at around a total of $11m.

I think they will be able to find a buyer for Smith’s salary at just 1 year left. I think he is certainly playing well enough for a team to be interested in absorbing his $4.25 cap hit for only 1 season.

I would be happy to turn around and then sign Dillon to a 3-4 year deal. I think you can get him signed in the same range that Smith is in right now while it being an upgrade overall. The 3-4 year term buys time to sort out the left side between Hajek-Miller-Robertson-Rykov-Reunanen-Jones over that time. One of them steps in to replace Staal, maybe as soon as next year. Then you can maybe package the others that are closer right now to fix a hole with that group being Hajek-Rykov-Reunanen. Jones and Robertson are bought much more time and eventually replace Dillon to be the cheap ELCs you need to navigate the salary cap.

 

[doomscroll]

Ok, so what is the target?

As people throw out trading him, I would like to know the return profile that is being asked for. I have named mine. What is yours?

I don’t have a trade target in mind for DeAngelo because his chemistry with Panarin&co/his fit in the locker-room makes him most valuable on the Rangers.

I do know that Winnipeg is looking for Trouba/Byfuglien/Meyers replacements, not just an offensive RHD. Pionk is faring well on the Jets.

 

[Blue Blooded]

If DeAngelo believes the Rangers are going to offer him like 6M for a year or two, and some team offers him 7-8M longer term likely up to 5 years, yes I do believe he would maybe sign it, and yes I do believe some team may offer him that even if it costs them a 2021 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Teams are allowed to talk to RFAs prior to July 1st. Agents of current Rangers are allowed to ask the Rangers management what their offer is.

Arbitration does award term, in ADA's case since he has more than 1 RFA year left, it depends on who filled for arbitration. The party who does not fill gets to select a 1 or 2 year term award.

To avoid going to arbitration the team is going to have to offer about what the award would be for anyway. Which is where comparable contracts comes in.

Those comparable contracts can be any contract a RFA signed. It does not matter if they were 1, 2 or even 8, 13 year deals, all that matters is what those contracts had as salary for any RFA year(s) within because it's salary arbitration and comparing RFA year(s) to RFA year(s)

The Rangers risked whatever they did, ADA was forced to risk what he did because the Rangers used up all their cap space instead of using it on him. That usually does not lead to the player taking any sort of discount in future deals.

The arbitration process is non negotiable should it reach the award stage, the team can either sign the deal or let the player walk (at least in this case as the award would be over the threshold for the team not to be able to walk away from)

I know you will compare the players, yet if you read this it may give some insight into how arbitration works.



Weber lands record $7.5-million arbitration award

As you can see, they compared recent contracts of players who had both RFA and UFA years included in their deals. They only used the RFA portions to get a salary comparison. Also note Weber at the time had two RFA years left.

Nurse two RFA years, his salary in them is 5.6M, yet that was with him coming off a 41 point season

Chabot extended, his RFA years go anywhere from 4 to 8M in salary, yet they average 6.5M, coming off 55 points.

Morrissey 8M in his 2 RFA years.

Trouba in his last RFA year is at 12M in salary.

Those are the most recent comparable contracts that have RFA years in them.

I know which two the Rangers would use as comparable, and I know which two DeAngelo would use.

Filing for arbitration protects against offer sheets, I assume the Rangers will file as early as possible to avoid one disrupting the negotiations.

 

[True Blue]

a center would be an option too....love chytil but he's not at the level yet that I'd turn down a 1A to slot behind mika. and I don't think he will be traded because that hypothetical player that i'd traded for either doesn't exist or isn't available.

A center is more complicated because we would first need to know the ramifications of a probably Strome resigning. If anything, Panarin has shown that he is quite capable of being a top-5 center with Strome as the pivot. So the need for another center is mitigated.

But let's go with that assumption. Who are you asking for?

 

[True Blue]

If DeAngelo believes the Rangers are going to offer him like 6M for a year or two, and some team offers him 7-8M longer term likely up to 5 years, yes I do believe he would maybe sign it, and yes I do believe some team may offer him that even if it costs them a 2021 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Teams are allowed to talk to RFAs prior to July 1st. Agents of current Rangers are allowed to ask the Rangers management what their offer is.

There is where we disagree and the no point in much discussion after that. There is simply NO WAY that some team is going to make him an offer sheet after 1.5 years of production for $8m and all of the term that come with it. That would be insane.

And if you are going to throw out names there, Morrisey did not make $8m in his RFA years. He made considerably less per year. And he just signed a deal for $6.25 per so there's that. The Oilers signed Nurse. That was not arbitration. As a 24 year old Trouba was awarded $5.5 . We can pick and choose what we want. But DeAngelo can ask for sky, moon and stars, and no arbitrator is going to award him $8. Nor is any team going to come up with an offer sheet for that much over long term for him right now.

 

[Off Sides]

Filing for arbitration protects against offer sheets, I assume the Rangers will file as early as possible to avoid one disrupting the negotiations.

The filing dates for arbitration are after July 1st when offer sheets can be signed. Last year arbitration filing was I believe July 5th.

Also the player would have to file to prevent offer sheets. Team filing does not provide protection.