Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown

[Tawnos]

I could’ve sworn Poti hit 50. Turns out it was 48. Aside from the feistiness, DeAngelo’s game is actually really similar to Poti’s. The difference? That type of game is very valuable in today’s NHL and was absolutely not during the Dead Puck Era.

Poti did manage to solidify his defensive game eventually.

 

[Off Sides]

Stome in his last RFA year is a whole other (not completely different) story when he may becoming off a ~70 point season if he hits his projections. (currently tied for 33rd in points league wide, tied 31st among forwards)

 

[Avery16]

We might have already seen the peak of Georgiev's trade value.

 

[Edge]

We might have already seen the peak of Georgiev's trade value.

I really am unsure the value was ever as high as some hoped. To an extent, I suspect Georgiev’s value to the Rangers might be higher than it was via trade.

 

[Ken Lund]

Lundqvist is coming? When? Again, what are the chances that the Rangers have not had such a point producer as a defenseman in 25 years and now all of a sudden they have multiple?

Chances greater than Lundqvist is the next Tim Erixon than he touches 60 points.

Not saying he gets 60 points. Saying he has a good chance to be at least a 3rd pair dman. And a 1st, 2nd, and third would be nice. You could get multiple players with that. One of them could even be a 3rd pair RHD.
Of course the best thing would be to just sign Deangelo to a nice six year deal ourselves.

 

[bobbop]

Nobody was a stronger voice for bringing in a Trouba than me. He has struggled more than I hoped this year. In some cases, a lot more.

Yes, I do think that part of the problem is the lack of a viable partner and part of the problem is a new and different system. But I also think that part of the problem is moving to a new team and carrying very big expectations. He has been asked to do a lot of heavy lifting this year and at times he has been less than we wanted and expect. It’s a big burden.

My expectation is that he will settle in for the long haul and the Rangers will get much more of the player the bargained for next year. He is a horse on the backend. We have not had a player like him since Girardi was in his prime and his history would indicate this is the exception and not the rule of his career.

 

[Edge]

Nobody was a stronger voice for bringing in a Trouba than me. He has struggled more than I hoped this year. In some cases, a lot more.

Yes, I do think that part of the problem is the lack of a viable partner and part of the problem is a new and different system. But I also think that part of the problem is moving to a new team and carrying very big expectations. He has been asked to do a lot of heavy lifting this year and at times he has been less than we wanted and expect. It’s a big burden.

My expectation is that he will settle in for the long haul and the Rangers will get much more of the player the bargained for next year. He is a horse on the backend. We have not had a player like him since Girardi was in his prime and his history would indicate this is the exception and not the rule of his career.

In a similar POV, I suspect Trouba will settle in better when he can become “one of the guys” instead of necessarily starting the season being viewed as “the guy” on defense.

I can’t say I am terribly disappointed in Trouba because I feel like he’s more or less been what I expected, especially apart from Morrissey and Byfuglien.

The funny thing is, I’ve found myself wondering how things would be different for him and the Rangers if there was a path to bringing Morrissey here. There’s not at the moment, but JM would probably be a good fit here on a number of levels.

 

[RGY]

Man I wish we could get Duclair back. He is really putting all the tools and skill together we saw glimpses of when he was first breaking into the NHL with us.

RFA status after this season. He would be quite the fit opposite Panarin. If they did keep Fast around, it would slot him down into a more appropriate spot.

 

[Kendo]

We have a top 15 forward in Panarin.
We have a top 30 forward in Zibanejad.
We have 2 players that could possibly be the best on any given team, so we are "one player ahead" already.

We have a top 90 forward in Kreider, which would rightfully be top 3 on any team. The reason that we re-signed him is because he makes sure that we have that "top 3" forward even if that means that he's on what is considered the "second line." We can find added value elsewhere.

We have top 120 forwards in both Strome and Buchnevich, so that's comfortably both #4 and #5. Therefore, we are technically even further "ahead" by having two "#1's," plus two "#4's."

We then have a mix of Fast (paid), Chytil, Kakko, Lemieux, Goat, and Howden to finish out the 2nd line, fill the 3rd line, and at least start the 4th.

We have a lot more depth on D and G (if we can sign Wall) for the minors, so we need reinforcements on offense first and foremost in the next draft or two.

 

[EdJovanovski]

We have a top 15 forward in Panarin.
We have a top 30 forward in Zibanejad.
We have 2 players that could possibly be the best on any given team, so we are "one player ahead" already.

We have a top 90 forward in Kreider, which would rightfully be top 3 on any team. The reason that we re-signed him is because he makes sure that we have that "top 3" forward even if that means that he's on what is considered the "second line." We can find added value elsewhere.

We have top 120 forwards in both Strome and Buchnevich, so that's comfortably both #4 and #5. Therefore, we are technically even further "ahead" by having two "#1's," plus two "#4's."

We then have a mix of Fast (paid), Chytil, Kakko, Lemieux, Goat, and Howden to finish out the 2nd line, fill the 3rd line, and at least start the 4th.

We have a lot more depth on D and G (if we can sign Wall) for the minors, so we need reinforcements on offense first and foremost in the next draft or two.

Those are ridiculously conservative rankings lol

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

A player agent texted Pierre LeBrun after hearing the NHL cap projection. The agent thinks the NHL cap projection is too high. Where is the revenue increase to justify the proposed cap increase? HRR will increase between 2%-3%. The agent believes the cap will be set at $83.5M. $2M increase. The NHL is using the full 5%. The players agreed to 1.3% inflator for this season.

84m is 3% higher than the current cap. 88.4m is 5% on top of the lowest projection, which is the NHLPA escalator.

The NHL isn't using 5%.

 

[BBKers]

Expect around $84,5 M as the Cap ceiling next season

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

We have a top 15 forward in Panarin.
We have a top 30 forward in Zibanejad.
We have 2 players that could possibly be the best on any given team, so we are "one player ahead" already.

We have a top 90 forward in Kreider, which would rightfully be top 3 on any team. The reason that we re-signed him is because he makes sure that we have that "top 3" forward even if that means that he's on what is considered the "second line." We can find added value elsewhere.

We have top 120 forwards in both Strome and Buchnevich, so that's comfortably both #4 and #5. Therefore, we are technically even further "ahead" by having two "#1's," plus two "#4's."

We then have a mix of Fast (paid), Chytil, Kakko, Lemieux, Goat, and Howden to finish out the 2nd line, fill the 3rd line, and at least start the 4th.

We have a lot more depth on D and G (if we can sign Wall) for the minors, so we need reinforcements on offense first and foremost in the next draft or two.

Top 5 forward in Panarin**

 

[mulli25]

I just don't think they are too worried about winning a cup next year like a lot of people here are. Miller is our #1 ld in about a year or year and half. Lindgren and Hajek fill out the left side. I'm not near as down on Hajek as most, he just needs to have an offseason like Lindgren.

Your take on Miller is a little, let’s say, aggressive

Assuming he’ll be in the NHL a year from now is thoroughly optimistic. Assuming he’ll be our best LD and ready for 20+ minutes against top line opponents is another level.

Realistically, we’re a year or two away from knowing if that’s even a possibility a year or two down the road from THAT point. I have a hard time buying the idea of Miller being a serviceable #1LD before 2024.

 

[charliemurphy]

We should be playing

ADA/Trouba
Lindgren/Fox

and looking mostly within for third pair options next season

This.

 

[Raspewtin]

Trouba has had a really solid run of games since we got skull f***ed by Philly imo

 

[GAGLine]

Trouba has had a really solid run of games since we got skull f***ed by Philly imo

Yeah. Philly is making a lot of teams/players look bad right now.

 

[motopanekeku]

Man I wish we could get Duclair back. He is really putting all the tools and skill together we saw glimpses of when he was first breaking into the NHL with us.

RFA status after this season. He would be quite the fit opposite Panarin. If they did keep Fast around, it would slot him down into a more appropriate spot.

I can see him as a target in the future for added scoring. After we win a cup and need to retool for the next one.

 

[True Blue]

I just don't think they are too worried about winning a cup next year like a lot of people here are. Miller is our #1 ld in about a year or year and half. Lindgren and Hajek fill out the left side. I'm not near as down on Hajek as most, he just needs to have an offseason like Lindgren.

They are not worried about the Cup next year, but they are intending to compete for playoffs.

Miller being #1 in a year, year and a half? Come on. Talk about pie in the sky wish-casting. He is at least 2-3 years away from just being on the team, let alone being a #1. That comment is what sets you up for vast disappointment. Like Kakko scoring 50 points this year or Kravstov being an impact player immediately.

Hajek may or may not take steps forward. I think he can. That does not solve the need of getting a partner for Trouba that will play major minutes and can play agains the opposition's top lines.

 

[True Blue]

The fact that they are on the ice against top opposition should be sufficient evidence to prove they are on the ice against top opposition, no?

They are spending some time there NOW. They have not been all year. And still do not as much as Trouba.

Anyway we know who their partners were typically and we know that they probably started most of their shifts on the fly in the NS and that they probably played their shifts in all 3 zones (you know, because hockey) so I am not really sure why I need to further disprove something that you can't even begin to prove in the first place.

Does it matter if you have a competent partner or not? Does that at all affect performance? Who has taken more face offs in the defensive zone? Trouba or Fox?

Except he doesn't go constantly against the top lines because that is not how it works in hockey. Unless you play every game at home and you're a team that plays a strict on the fly match up game (and the Rangers dont, at all) that is never the case. As I have pointed out. Over. And over again.

And I have pointed out that Trouba takes the lions share of being opposite the other teams top players. Over and over again.

As for Fox's fancy stats, in 88 minutes played together Staal-Fox has a xGF% of 47.1% (tied with Deangelo as the highest Staal has with anyone) and in 60 minutes played together Staal-Trouba has an AHL caliber 29.3% xGF%, so yes? Its possible his fancy stats would probably still be significantly better than Trouba's?

Not if he consistently was used as Trouba has been. And DeAngelo has been sheltered more than any other defenseman on the team.

I think it is impossible for 5v5 stats to address what players are doing on the PK or PP, so I am not sure what to tell you.

Sure, but we were talking about defensive zone draws and the quality of the opposition's players on the ice. And the effect that has on a player over the entire course of a game. We were also talking about how having a competent partner will affect your fancy stats.

If Trouba is somehow so worn out from PKing maybe Quinn should rest him? He's like top 10 in PK goals against this season so a short rest wouldn't exactly destroy the team.

Pretty sure you cannot deny the effect that will have over the course of a game when comparing with a player that has not played the PK nearly as much.

Stats with as much context as someone like myself has time to provide is better than absolutely nothing. You basically call my approach myopic because I dont factor in everything including how the wind is blowing the but you've yet to actually provide anything beyond what appears to be your general opinion of how you think hockey works.

I have never said your approach lacks intellectual insight. I said that one cannot simply look at stats and make absolute judgments by them.

Honestly, do you have anything to support your argument other than "I feel like this is the way things are?"

Honestly, other than throwing out blanket stats with no context do you have anything to support your argument besides "look at the percentage of this?"

 

[True Blue]

I may be in the minority but I think Lundqvist is done and there are many potential backups out there that would do better. Also would cover the requirement for the expansion draft.

As for Georgiev I think he should be moved in the off season as I dont see his value going any higher and likely could only decrease.

What potential backups do you see that would do better here than Henke?

 

[RGY]

They are not worried about the Cup next year, but they are intending to compete for playoffs.

Miller being #1 in a year, year and a half? Come up. Talk about pie in the sky wish-casting. He is at least 2-3 years away from just being on the team, let alone being a #1. That comment is what sets you up for vast disappointment. Like Kakko scoring 50 points this year or Kravstov being an impact player immediately.

Hajek may or may not take steps forward. I think he can. That does not solve the need of getting a partner for Trouba that will play major minutes and can play agains the opposition's top lines.

Brenden Dillon.

 

[True Blue]

Which dollars am I putting out,

An offer sheet? Given it would be made to make it difficult to match, yes I think it would be at the or near max where the compensation is still only a 1st, 2nd, 3rd. There are rules to that, not based on feel.

So you believe that there is a team out there that would come with an offer sheet of $8.4m for DeAngelo? Not possibly, but do you really believe that a team will do that?

Arbitration? There are plenty of lesser point producing comparable RFAs who in their second RFA year were paid in salary, (it's salary arbitration, not cap hit) who were paid at least 5.5M if not much more for that year.

Arbitration awards salary, not term. To avoid going to arbitration, a team and a player sign salaried contracts that have term of more than one year.

The Rangers and him compromising because he would have to risk it? They just did that. Rangers gave him basically the least possible they could for this year, he risked it. That comes with him now being arbitration eligible, which has possible certain non negotiable compromises the team may have to make if they want to keep him, which I have been trying to unsuccessfully explain.

They didn't risk anything. Signing Panarin ensured that there is not enough money for a long term deal this year. That is not the case anymore.

There are no such things as non-negotiable compromises. That is not how a negotiation works. There are things that both sides want and the other does not. A contract usually involves giving and getting. Like Kreider's contract.

 

[True Blue]

Not saying he gets 60 points. Saying he has a good chance to be at least a 3rd pair dman. And a 1st, 2nd, and third would be nice. You could get multiple players with that. One of them could even be a 3rd pair RHD.

You said "Lundqvist coming". In the context of this conversation, that implies that you believe that DeAngelo is more expendable due to this. Otherwise why bring up his name?

You can get multiple draft picks for that. As the Rangers are looking to compete for the playoffs, I doubt that they would trade the production of DeAngelo for futures that will not see the ice at MSG for 3-4 years. And is your third pair RD going to be a 55-60 point defenseman?

Of course the best thing would be to just sign Deangelo to a nice six year deal ourselves.

Which is what I believe will happen. This year or next.

 

[RGY]

The thing is with worry about an offer sheet to DeAngelo, is that many of the contending teams are cap ceiling teams. They would need to make at least 1, maybe 2 moves, in addition to surrendering the draft picks for an offensively biased defenseman. Love TDA but he has his shortcomings defensively. He has gotten better but he still has his weaknesses that show up.

So then it brings us to potentially a non-playoff team the following year offer sheeting TDA. That 1st round pick could be 1-15 along with the other rounds. I think you take that and run given that you have Lundkvist getting close to knocking on the door. You take your chances.

And this is all if someone gets crazy and offers the $8 million +