Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown

[UAGoalieGuy]

I don't get why we can't have Georgiev and Shesterkin until Georgiev requests a trade if and when he wants to be the #1 goalie. no reason to trade him unless he forces the Rangers hand. I don't see why the Rangers can't have 2 young goalies for the time being. the league is going younger.

Because, imo, Georgievs value cant get any higher then it is. Why risk it going down? And would also cover them from the expansion draft having that vet signed for 2 years.

 

[True Blue]

You might have misunderstood my question. I was asking if a team was forced into playing someone offside - what would be preferable (or as I called - a lesser evil) offensive or defensive defenseman in that spot?

Got to say defensive as they are more inclined to think defense first. I would think

 

[True Blue]

Dougie Hamilton coming off one 42 point season signed a 6 year, 5.75M cap deal for 8.05% of the cap, at 84M that would be ~6.75M (however that was directly off his entry level, not that it should make that much difference as ADA is one year removed)

DeAngelo may end up with more like 60 points.

I really have no idea how one can say, look at DeAngelo he is top 5 or 8 in scoring among defenders, than on the other hand say he'll end up on a RFA contract that resembles other RFAs who are or were putting up 50% to 80% of his points.

Hamilton signed a deal. That is a consensus between a team and a player. He was not awarded a 6 year deal.

There is NO TEAM out there that would pay him $7 or $8m right now. If he wants to keep taking bets on himself for the next 3 years, then arbitration it will be. But there are many, many things that can happen in 3 years. Dips in performance, season altering injuries that affect the following season, etc. That is why players often come to deals. Sure continuously making bets on himself may well pay off in another 3 years. But that is a long time to bet that no injuries will occur and that the 60 point seasons will keep on coming.

 

[True Blue]

• Buyout or trade (with retention) Lundqvist. I doubt he retires
• Trade Georgiev
• Sign Strome 2 years $4.75AAV
• Sign ADA 5 years $6.25AAV
• Sign Fast 3 years $2.75AAV
• Sign a vet backup 2 years sub $1.5MM AAV

Based on the assumption the cap ceiling comes in the middle of those estimate. $86MM

First of all, Strome will likely get $5m per, whatever the term is. But splitting hairs. Fast at $2.75 may be ok. And why the need to buy out Henke if you traded Georgiev?

 

[Avery16]

Cant wait for the first person to suggest that Brendan Smith played his way onto the first defense pair this season

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

First of all, Strome will likely get $5m per, whatever the term is. But splitting hairs. Fast at $2.75 may be ok. And why the need to buy out Henke if you traded Georgiev?

See my post above.

 

[True Blue]

See my post above.

My question was if you have traded Georgiev, then why are you buying out Henke just to sign someone who will probably be not as good?

 

[Off Sides]

Hamilton signed a deal. That is a consensus between a team and a player. He was not awarded a 6 year deal.

There is NO TEAM out there that would pay him $7 or $8m right now. If he wants to keep taking bets on himself for the next 3 years, then arbitration it will be. But there are many, many things that can happen in 3 years. Dips in performance, season altering injuries that affect the following season, etc. That is why players often come to deals. Sure continuously making bets on himself may well pay off in another 3 years. But that is a long time to bet that no injuries will occur and that the 60 point seasons will keep on coming.

I have a feeling these RFA signings are going to surprise you.

 

[Zibanejbread]

 

[RGY]

Cant wait for the first person to suggest that Brendan Smith played his way onto the first defense pair this season

Head would have to be examined.

What he has been doing is playing up his trade value enough for a cap floor team to be interested. Maybe more teams. And with no retention for the final year of his contract.

Saves the Rangers money to explore a vet free agent. Dillon is my target. Scandella a good option as well.

 

[Avery16]

Head would have to be examined.

What he has been doing is playing up his trade value enough for a cap floor team to be interested. Maybe more teams. And with no retention for the final year of his contract.

Saves the Rangers money to explore a vet free agent. Dillon is my target. Scandella a good option as well.

If I were Quinn I would ask Knoblauch to start testing a Hajek/Rykov pairing.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Cant wait for the first person to suggest that Brendan Smith played his way onto the first defense pair this season

He should have played his way onto the 3rd pairing in October.

 

[True Blue]

I have a feeling these RFA signings are going to surprise you.

We shall see. Considering that DeAngelo is only going to be coming into his first RFA year, I cannot see any scenario where he even approaches the dollars that you are putting out.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

We shall see. Considering that DeAngelo is only going to be coming into his first RFA year, I cannot see any scenario where he even approaches the dollars that you are putting out.

Second.

He playing in his first right now.

 

[True Blue]

Second.

He playing in his first right now.

You're right.

 

[Ola]

Head would have to be examined.

What he has been doing is playing up his trade value enough for a cap floor team to be interested. Maybe more teams. And with no retention for the final year of his contract.

Saves the Rangers money to explore a vet free agent. Dillon is my target. Scandella a good option as well.

Vet D UFA signing? What’s next, you think they should take up testing ordered by the military at Chernobyl and don’t care about the safety procedures? Someone should drive a luxury cruiser through the Atlantic and not care about ice berg warnings?

 

[Deleted member 23124]

He should have played his way onto the 3rd pairing in October.

To what end? Smith could have morphed into a combo of Larry Robinson and Chara and would have still ended up on 4th line as a forward....Top 6 were already set (Trouba-Skjei, Fox=Lindgren, ADA-Staal)....No way DQ was taking Staal off the ice.

 

[McRanger]

Do they say in which zone they faced him? Who their partner was? Was it during an offensive or defensive draw?

The fact that they are on the ice against top opposition should be sufficient evidence to prove they are on the ice against top opposition, no?

Anyway we know who their partners were typically and we know that they probably started most of their shifts on the fly in the NS and that they probably played their shifts in all 3 zones (you know, because hockey) so I am not really sure why I need to further disprove something that you can't even begin to prove in the first place.

My stance is that Trouba is largely the same player, just with a worse supporting cast. My stance is that he constantly goes against the opposition's top line. Not just some times or some games. Constantly. That has an effect. Having a competent partner also has an effect. Or do you believe that Fox would have the same exact fancy stats if let's stay Staal has been his partner instead of Lindgren?

Except he doesn't go constantly against the top lines because that is not how it works in hockey. Unless you play every game at home and you're a team that plays a strict on the fly match up game (and the Rangers dont, at all) that is never the case. As I have pointed out. Over. And over again.

As for Fox's fancy stats, in 88 minutes played together Staal-Fox has a xGF% of 47.1% (tied with Deangelo as the highest Staal has with anyone) and in 60 minutes played together Staal-Trouba has an AHL caliber 29.3% xGF%, so yes? Its possible his fancy stats would probably still be significantly better than Trouba's?

That still does not address the other items that I listed. Nor does it address on what happens to a player who logs tons of PK time vs one that largely does not. Or has not been.

I think it is impossible for 5v5 stats to address what players are doing on the PK or PP, so I am not sure what to tell you.

If Trouba is somehow so worn out from PKing maybe Quinn should rest him? He's like top 10 in PK goals against this season so a short rest wouldn't exactly destroy the team.

Sure, but blind stats with no context are not it.

Stats with as much context as someone like myself has time to provide is better than absolutely nothing. You basically call my approach myopic because I dont factor in everything including how the wind is blowing the but you've yet to actually provide anything beyond what appears to be your general opinion of how you think hockey works.

Honestly, do you have anything to support your argument other than "I feel like this is the way things are?"

 

[McRanger]

Did Trouba lose the ability to play shut down hockey over night when he came here from Winnipeg? He was a metrics darling in Winnipeg.

These stats don’t say anything about a player’s ability. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th best Corsi teams in the entire NHL aren’t even in a PO spot (MTL, Carolina and Los Angeles).

If they did, someone’s metrical foot print couldn’t change 180' over night when they change teams. Girardi was the worst ever, he goes to Tampa and has OK stats. Pionk is the worst ever, he goes to Winnipeg and they love him. Good stats. Trouba is a metrical darling in Winnipeg, then he comes here and over night he sucks.

And the comparisons to TDA just don’t fly. People where saying the same thing last season. We have good top units around us. If you are put out against them EVERY time we have a FO in our end, always out there unfavorable shifts when we are protecting leads and what not, if you are the guy that the coach turn to in a certain situation for an entire season — that will just reflect on the stats in a totally different way than a few odd shifts here and there.

For good and for bad, units also eventually adopts to their ability. We are not doing a good job against the top units of other teams, and hence become more conservative against them to not lose games. If you have a carry over shift or another player get the odd shift against them — they might have much more confidence.

One big problem is that we don’t know how to value these things, because for a long time there was almost and obsession with defending their perfectibility. QoO didn’t matter, some stat professor in Vancouver said so. A style a team played don’t matter. And so forth. Corsi was said to equal a players ability. Many hockey people called it out because if you understand hockey you knew that the metrics when used to Corsi scout players was BS, nothing less nothing more. Now everyone knows it.

I think that Trouba has been perfectly OK for us. Even better than I expected. It’s a unit thing. When we have a unit that is better than Marchand-Bergeron-Pasta and the likes we will also get a top D with good corsi, while we don’t we won’t. 5 guys must accomplish that. It’s not 1 players fault if they fail.

Trouba was an offensive metric darling maybe, but not defensive. Last year he was average to bad in pretty much every defensive metric there was. He was also good to great in every offensive metric. The offense is still there this year but the defense has gone off a cliff.

Why did people think he was some defensive stalwart of a player when almost all of his value comes from his offense? I have no idea.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I disagree. We have a glaring hole at LD in our lineup and no near term solution

The solution is well within our timeline, which everyone seems to be pushing ahead to next year.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I actually disagree here. I thinkthat Trouba's partner comes from the outside. There is no LD that is either in the system that will be able to step into that role over the next several years. And please let's forget about the fantasy of DeAngelo or Fox switching sides.

MAYBE with a big camp, Hajek can pair with DeAngelo next year.

I just don't think they are too worried about winning a cup next year like a lot of people here are. Miller is our #1 ld in about a year or year and half. Lindgren and Hajek fill out the left side. I'm not near as down on Hajek as most, he just needs to have an offseason like Lindgren.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I really have no problem with Trouba's play outside of the fact for some reason he cant hit the net with his shots anymore.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

My question was if you have traded Georgiev, then why are you buying out Henke just to sign someone who will probably be not as good?

I may be in the minority but I think Lundqvist is done and there are many potential backups out there that would do better. Also would cover the requirement for the expansion draft.

As for Georgiev I think he should be moved in the off season as I dont see his value going any higher and likely could only decrease.

 

[Off Sides]

We shall see. Considering that DeAngelo is only going to be coming into his first RFA year, I cannot see any scenario where he even approaches the dollars that you are putting out.

Which dollars am I putting out,

An offer sheet? Given it would be made to make it difficult to match, yes I think it would be at the or near max where the compensation is still only a 1st, 2nd, 3rd. There are rules to that, not based on feel.

Arbitration? There are plenty of lesser point producing comparable RFAs who in their second RFA year were paid in salary, (it's salary arbitration, not cap hit) who were paid at least 5.5M if not much more for that year.

The Rangers and him compromising because he would have to risk it? They just did that. Rangers gave him basically the least possible they could for this year, he risked it. That comes with him now being arbitration eligible, which has possible certain non negotiable compromises the team may have to make if they want to keep him, which I have been trying to unsuccessfully explain.

 

[Avery16]

But lets move him to facilitate a Strome extension amirite