Speculation: Roster Building Thread XXXVII: It's the Final Countdown

[NYR Viper]

We should be playing

ADA/Trouba
Lindgren/Fox

and looking mostly within for third pair options next season

This. 1,000% this.

Although I'd be okay, if they found a way to remove Staal and Smith, signing someone or acquiring someone for the 3rd pairing who could add some size and a bit of physical play (assuming the cost is minimal)

 

[McRanger]

Looking at stats with blinders on is also not the answer.

Blinders? The stats are evidence supporting an argument, not the argument itself. The argument has been laid out 1000 times already: the idea that you can shelter 2 defensive pairings is absurd while the idea that you can shelter any D pair is somewhere between exaggerated (at home, where you can sort of do it) and a complete fantasy (on the road, where you often can't do it at all).

Putting aside this should be obvious to anyone having watched or played hockey and therefore really shouldn't need stats to back it up, these stats back it up.

The numbers someone else posted recently where Deangelo was targeted by the oppositions top line and ended up with more TOI against than either Trouba or Fox (and shockingly put up better numbers than Trouba) back it up.

Would you rather face Barzal with Lindgren or with a Smith or Sjeki is a partner?

So we're past "Trouba has bad numbers because the defense is young" and have arrived at "Trouba has bad numbers because he doesn't play with a young defenseman."

That is quite the reversal.

Does this say if he was faced at ES or while the Isles were on PP?

I wrote 5v5 because the numbers are just 5v5, no PP or PK.

Quinn doesn't play our best defensive defenseman on the PK because he's Quinn.

At the end of the day, I am not proving anything to you.

By all means prove me wrong. It certainly would not be the first time. But proving usually requires proof.

 

[Off Sides]

NO ONE is giving DeAngelo that type of contract.

If it's an offer sheet one would expect it to be an overpay. The point to them is usually to try to get the player so the other team will not match.


Yet if you'd like we can try this way.

What do you expect DeAngelo to sign for this summer?

Do you have any comparable contracts to players who would compare to DeAngelo both in point totals, time on ice, whatever stats you want to include towards your prediction. Do those also compare based on how many years that contract was for, what type of years, RFA and UFA years were included within that contract? Did those players sign any bridge deal prior, or are they just off their entry levels? Are you going by cap hit or percentage of cap if you are using older comparable contracts?

I've made several comparison to other contracts. I've designated RFA years within, UFA within, points, etc. You guys are just yelling out,

No way.

 

[Larrybiv]

Anything in that 1st and 3rd round range is what the Rangers would expect to pay anyway. If they could get a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and considering they have Lundqvist coming soon it might be worth taking the picks and, I would assume, using them to get a true top pair LHD or top six forward. But I dont see Montreal doing it.

Just cannot see Tony playing for ANY Canadian team, whether it's Montreal, Calgary, Edm. etc. He is much too much an American, from Philly at that.

 

[Ola]

A player agent texted Pierre LeBrun after hearing the NHL cap projection. The agent thinks the NHL cap projection is too high. Where is the revenue increase to justify the proposed cap increase? HRR will increase between 2%-3%. The agent believes the cap will be set at $83.5M. $2M increase. The NHL is using the full 5%. The players agreed to 1.3% inflator for this season.

The 84m is the projection, they always report it like this. The projection and then a range of the PA uses the inflator. 5% of 84m puts it at 88m like the report said.

83.5m or 84m, it’s no big difference. From 81.5m to 84m is exactly 3%.

 

[True Blue]

If it's an offer sheet one would expect it to be an overpay. The point to them is usually to try to get the player so the other team will not match.

yes, but if they don't, you have just signed DeAngelo to $8.4m for 5 years. That is not a gamble anyone would make

Yet if you'd like we can try this way.

What do you expect DeAngelo to sign for this summer?

One of two things. Either he signed an arbitration deal around $4.5-5 this year or he signs a long term deal this year or next around 4-6 years at $6m.

I've made several comparison to other contracts. I've designated RFA years within, UFA within, points, etc. You guys are just yelling out,

Are your comps for players that have produced over several years or just one? And do your comps have anyone getting paid top pairing money after 1.5 years of production?

 

[aufheben]

Saw a tweet stating that GMs/agents always assume the cap will be $2M less than the projections.

 

[True Blue]

Blinders? The stats are evidence supporting an argument, not the argument itself. The argument has been laid out 1000 times already: the idea that you can shelter 2 defensive pairings is absurd while the idea that you can shelter any D pair is somewhere between exaggerated (at home, where you can sort of do it) and a complete fantasy (on the road, where you often can't do it at all).

Do they say in which zone they faced him? Who their partner was? Was it during an offensive or defensive draw?

So we're past "Trouba has bad numbers because the defense is young" and have arrived at "Trouba has bad numbers because he doesn't play with a young defenseman."

That is quite the reversal.

My stance is that Trouba is largely the same player, just with a worse supporting cast. My stance is that he constantly goes against the opposition's top line. Not just some times or some games. Constantly. That has an effect. Having a competent partner also has an effect. Or do you believe that Fox would have the same exact fancy stats if let's stay Staal has been his partner instead of Lindgren?

I wrote 5v5 because the numbers are just 5v5, no PP or PK.

That still does not address the other items that I listed. Nor does it address on what happens to a player who logs tons of PK time vs one that largely does not. Or has not been.

By all means prove me wrong. It certainly would not be the first time. But proving usually requires proof.

Sure, but blind stats with no context are not it.

 

[Off Sides]

yes, but if they don't, you have just signed DeAngelo to $8.4m for 5 years. That is not a gamble anyone would make

One of two things. Either he signed an arbitration deal around $4.5-5 this year or he signs a long term deal this year or next around 4-6 years at $6m.

Are your comps for players that have produced over several years or just one? And do your comps have anyone getting paid top pairing money after 1.5 years of production?

So you feel like he'll get 4.5-5M for a year, or 6M for 4-6 years, yet you did not look up any other contracts.

 

[Larrybiv]

But it should be for the "right" reasons. Tired of that old "bad past history". Let's allow that to rest in peace. It will be because of not producing quite like this for at least a couple of years, and his somewhat questionable defensive play. Even that is overblown imo. He is improving, and not quite the the liability in comparison to what he brings.

 

[Larrybiv]

Lundqvist is coming? When? Again, what are the chances that the Rangers have not had such a point producer as a defenseman in 25 years and now all of a sudden they have multiple?

Chances greater than Lundqvist is the next Tim Erixon than he touches 60 points.

True, but lets hope for much better than the one game wonder Erixon was. Lol. I swear I think I remember him lighting it up his 1st week or 2.

 

[Bruner4329]

Just cannot see Tony playing for ANY Canadian team, whether it's Montreal, Calgary, Edm. etc. He is much too much an American, from Philly at that.

Yeah right? Don't you know in every sport it always comes down to money. Most go to the highest bidder. Plus Montreal is an original 6 team with tons of history.

 

[kovazub94]

We are in major need of an RD that's for sure.

Hockey cliche: "You can never have too much (R)D"

 

[duhmetreE]

The 84m is the projection, they always report it like this. The projection and then a range of the PA uses the inflator. 5% of 84m puts it at 88m like the report said.

83.5m or 84m, it’s no big difference. From 81.5m to 84m is exactly 3%.

They dont see the cap going up 3% but they project the revenue going up 3%. Makes sense.

 

[Larrybiv]

Saw a tweet stating that GMs/agents always assume the cap will be $2M less than the projections.

Which makes all the sense in the world. If it goes EXACTLY tok the projection, they have an extra 2 mil cap space to play around with in the bank. It's called, playing it safe. Overspend, then you pay the piper. Take it from one who knows.

 

[kovazub94]

Did Trouba every play on the left side or I completely making it up?

Taking "a partner for Trouba" 0ut of consideration if a team were forced to play a defenseman on his off-side would it be a lesser evil to have a defensive or offensive defenseman on his off-side?

 

[True Blue]

So you feel like he'll get 4.5-5M for a year, or 6M for 4-6 years, yet you did not look up any other contracts.

Yes, I feel that. No, I do not need to look up specific contracts. Just look at what he has been doing and for how long. And then add what I would do and the dollars that I believe that Gorton will go to

 

[True Blue]

True, but lets hope for much better than the one game wonder Erixon was. Lol. I swear I think I remember him lighting it up his 1st week or 2.

Oh, I certainly hope so. But the realistic chances of him hitting the points that DeAngelo has been for going on the 14th month already are very, very slim. The chances of him being an NHL bust are greater.

Which is not to say that I think he will be. But I think that people are not recognizing how rare it is what DeAngelo is doing at his age. Ultimately, I really do believe that Lundqvist will be moved to shore up another weakness. Like finding Trouba's partner on the top pair.

 

[True Blue]

Taking "a partner for Trouba" 0ut of consideration if a team were forced to play a defenseman on his off-side would it be a lesser evil to have a defensive or offensive defenseman on his off-side?

I do not think so. There are reasons there are not really all that many of such switch hitters in the NHL. There is a world of difference playing one side vs. the other. Where your stick is, how you react to oncoming skaters due to where the boards are, how you make the first pass out of the zone......everything.

If you are a competing team, I doubt that you can have such uncertainty hanging over you as you enter camp. At that point a failed experiment results in a Staal or Smith becoming regulars again as finding such other players is not as easy as it sounds.

Mind you this is an example. It is not like I am expecting Lundqvist to be moved tomorrow. But something does have to be done about the defense for next year. They cannot have Staal & Smith manning a third of the starting 6.

 

[Off Sides]

Yes, I feel that. No, I do not need to look up specific contracts. Just look at what he has been doing and for how long. And then add what I would do and the dollars that I believe that Gorton will go to

Dougie Hamilton coming off one 42 point season signed a 6 year, 5.75M cap deal for 8.05% of the cap, at 84M that would be ~6.75M (however that was directly off his entry level, not that it should make that much difference as ADA is one year removed)

DeAngelo may end up with more like 60 points.

I really have no idea how one can say, look at DeAngelo he is top 5 or 8 in scoring among defenders, than on the other hand say he'll end up on a RFA contract that resembles other RFAs who are or were putting up 50% to 80% of his points.

 

[Fitzy]

I think they give ADA an RFA bridge. 2 years at around 5.75 per.

I'm not saying that's the best plan compared to a 7-8 year extension, but I think its the direction they go in.

 

[kovazub94]

I do not think so. There are reasons there are not really all that many of such switch hitters in the NHL. There is a world of difference playing one side vs. the other. Where your stick is, how you react to oncoming skaters due to where the boards are, how you make the first pass out of the zone......everything.

If you are a competing team, I doubt that you can have such uncertainty hanging over you as you enter camp. At that point a failed experiment results in a Staal or Smith becoming regulars again as finding such other players is not as easy as it sounds.

Mind you this is an example. It is not like I am expecting Lundqvist to be moved tomorrow. But something does have to be done about the defense for next year. They cannot have Staal & Smith manning a third of the starting 6.

You might have misunderstood my question. I was asking if a team was forced into playing someone offside - what would be preferable (or as I called - a lesser evil) offensive or defensive defenseman in that spot?

 

[Ola]

Blinders? The stats are evidence supporting an argument, not the argument itself. The argument has been laid out 1000 times already: the idea that you can shelter 2 defensive pairings is absurd while the idea that you can shelter any D pair is somewhere between exaggerated (at home, where you can sort of do it) and a complete fantasy (on the road, where you often can't do it at all).

Putting aside this should be obvious to anyone having watched or played hockey and therefore really shouldn't need stats to back it up, these stats back it up.

The numbers someone else posted recently where Deangelo was targeted by the oppositions top line and ended up with more TOI against than either Trouba or Fox (and shockingly put up better numbers than Trouba) back it up.

So we're past "Trouba has bad numbers because the defense is young" and have arrived at "Trouba has bad numbers because he doesn't play with a young defenseman."

That is quite the reversal.

I wrote 5v5 because the numbers are just 5v5, no PP or PK.

Quinn doesn't play our best defensive defenseman on the PK because he's Quinn.

By all means prove me wrong. It certainly would not be the first time. But proving usually requires proof.

Did Trouba lose the ability to play shut down hockey over night when he came here from Winnipeg? He was a metrics darling in Winnipeg.

These stats don’t say anything about a player’s ability. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th best Corsi teams in the entire NHL aren’t even in a PO spot (MTL, Carolina and Los Angeles).

If they did, someone’s metrical foot print couldn’t change 180' over night when they change teams. Girardi was the worst ever, he goes to Tampa and has OK stats. Pionk is the worst ever, he goes to Winnipeg and they love him. Good stats. Trouba is a metrical darling in Winnipeg, then he comes here and over night he sucks.

And the comparisons to TDA just don’t fly. People where saying the same thing last season. We have good top units around us. If you are put out against them EVERY time we have a FO in our end, always out there unfavorable shifts when we are protecting leads and what not, if you are the guy that the coach turn to in a certain situation for an entire season — that will just reflect on the stats in a totally different way than a few odd shifts here and there.

For good and for bad, units also eventually adopts to their ability. We are not doing a good job against the top units of other teams, and hence become more conservative against them to not lose games. If you have a carry over shift or another player get the odd shift against them — they might have much more confidence.

One big problem is that we don’t know how to value these things, because for a long time there was almost and obsession with defending their perfectibility. QoO didn’t matter, some stat professor in Vancouver said so. A style a team played don’t matter. And so forth. Corsi was said to equal a players ability. Many hockey people called it out because if you understand hockey you knew that the metrics when used to Corsi scout players was BS, nothing less nothing more. Now everyone knows it.

I think that Trouba has been perfectly OK for us. Even better than I expected. It’s a unit thing. When we have a unit that is better than Marchand-Bergeron-Pasta and the likes we will also get a top D with good corsi, while we don’t we won’t. 5 guys must accomplish that. It’s not 1 players fault if they fail.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

• Buyout or trade (with retention) Lundqvist. I doubt he retires
• Trade Georgiev
• Sign Strome 2 years $4.75AAV
• Sign ADA 5 years $6.25AAV
• Sign Fast 3 years $2.75AAV
• Sign a vet backup 2 years sub $1.5MM AAV

Based on the assumption the cap ceiling comes in the middle of those estimate. $86MM

 

[RangersFan1994]

• Buyout or trade (with retention) Lundqvist. I doubt he retires
• Trade Georgiev
• Sign Strome 2 years $4.75AAV
• Sign ADA 5 years $6.25AAV
• Sign Fast 3 years $2.75AAV
• Sign a vet backup 2 years sub $1.5MM AAV

Based on the assumption the cap ceiling comes in the middle of those estimate. $86MM

I don't get why we can't have Georgiev and Shesterkin until Georgiev requests a trade if and when he wants to be the #1 goalie. no reason to trade him unless he forces the Rangers hand. I don't see why the Rangers can't have 2 young goalies for the time being. the league is going younger.