Speculation: Roster Building Thread V (2019/2020)

[McRanger]

Doomed to what?

Use math.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

saying things like "...Chris Kreider is a top5 ice-tilter in the world..." is where analytics get to be a bit much.

 

[DutchShamrock]

The biggest plus for the Pionk and Winnipeg relationship was Pionk getting sheltered and slotted into a more appropriate role. With that evaporating, Pionk is returning to the situation last season.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Maybe that ORegan has one good chance to show Quinn what he has before he’s sent to Hartford for the rest of the season. Quinn already knows Nieves.

Quite the contrary. Quinn loves O’Reagan from BU. I’d be worried.

 

[Avery16]

Quite the contrary. Quinn loves O’Reagan from BU. I’d be worried.

He might, but he still has no idea how ORegan is against NHL players, hence the extra look tonight. Quinn knows what he has in Nieves.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

He was a contributing factor to the Rangers not being very competitive in games last year

Wow my post went right over your head, didn't it?

 

[Thirty One]

Quite the contrary. Quinn loves O’Reagan from BU. I’d be worried.

Yes, this was the reason Shattenkirk was going to be named captain.

 

[Alluckks]

Just walking somewhere and noticed ADA posted on his instagram story that he was doing the last skate of the season with his buddy until next summer; not sure if that means his buddy is taking off to somewhere else or what

 

[Ola]

I agree. And while they certainly have their place in the game, teams who rely too heavily on analytics are as doomed as the teams that largely ignore it.

I am not sure how doomed teams really are if they would cut out analytics. It can definitely provide insight and be a valuable tool.

But really, quite many years have passed after the first bonanza and it’s quite clear that the analytic’s track record is awfully poor.

The problem in hockey is just that available counts are (where?) so simplistic. Teams now mostly use systems based on their own counts.

But really, I don’t for a second think Babcock in Toronto get more from his analytic department than what he gets from like an existing stat like time on ice. TOI is of course very — valuable — for a coach. You get to keep track of exactly how much a player have been used. But remember that so much hockey is played without that number, preseason SHL games, national team practice games and stuff don’t have TOI. Do the AHL even have TOI yet? You of course survive.

By getting more tellers, you can optimize things. Get more help. But it’s not more than that. A valuable tool.

But the notion that you like can corsi-scout in hockey is just pretty absurd.

 

[Edge]

Analytics has always felt like the "libertarianism" of the hockey discussion world.

For the real devotees, little short of a complete embrace of the concept will suffice.

For the greater majority, certain elements will strike a chord, but a broader desire to further embrace the concept remains illusive.

Most front offices utilize aspects of the approach, but there's not nearly as much debate within industry circles as there are within fan circles.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Analytics has always felt like the "libertarianism" of the hockey discussion world.

For the real devotees, little short of a complete embrace of the concept will suffice.

For the greater majority, certain elements will strike a chord, but a broader desire to further embrace the concept remains illusive.

Most front offices utilize aspects of the approach, but there's not nearly as much debate within industry circles as there are within fan circles.

I agree with most of this, but all analytics really do is verify what happens on the ice.

Does a forward excel in zone entries and shot volume? He’s probably a pretty damn good player if he does. D man who suppressed scoring chances against and is great at zone exits? Sign me up for more of that.

There are exceptions to every rule (franson had strong metrics, but he sucked) but to me, at least numbers are objective. The eye test rarely is and the fact of the matter is most of the time, the eyes administering the test suck.

 

[Mikos87]

Analytics has always felt like the "libertarianism" of the hockey discussion world.

For the real devotees, little short of a complete embrace of the concept will suffice.

For the greater majority, certain elements will strike a chord, but a broader desire to further embrace the concept remains illusive.

Most front offices utilize aspects of the approach, but there's not nearly as much debate within industry circles as there are within fan circles.

It's funny because some of the metrics and kpis teams measure are not variants of shot attempts that are inexorably proselytized by the devotees.

They measure match-ups, situational scoring chances, puck chase and battle situations. You know things about the game of hockey that expand beyond the shot attempt.

One western team has a metric where they get one of their players a shot in a scenario where can score ~30% of the time. Dude's a perennial 30-40 goal man. There are other western teams that game plan on stopping that from happening.

 

[LiveLongandProspal]

When was the last time Al Trautwig went to a dentist?

 

[cheech70]

Looking at the roster I don't see how Buch fits in long term. He along with ADA and Kreider are valuable chips. If Gorts can continue his asset collection we could be set for the next decade.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Looking at the roster I don't see how Buch fits in long term. He along with ADA and Kreider are valuable chips. If Gorts can continue his asset collection we could be set for the next decade.

Why not be set for the next decade with Buch? He's great, we need depth on wing and we most definitely want to see what he's up to this year.
See if he can take another step. Krav and Kakk are versatile enough to play LW, if need be.

ADA's value has to be seriously argued at this point

I think the FO is done with collecting assets. These people want to get Hank that Cup, I fear.

 

[Tawnos]

Looking at the roster I don't see how Buch fits in long term. He along with ADA and Kreider are valuable chips. If Gorts can continue his asset collection we could be set for the next decade.

Buchnevich can play either wing, so my question about "long-term" is who you see as the 2nd line LW for long-term? Assuming that Kakko and Kravtsov are your 2 RWs and Panarin is your 1LW.

 

[Irishguy42]

Buchnevich can play either wing, so my question about "long-term" is who you see as the 2nd line LW for long-term? Assuming that Kakko and Kravtsov are your 2 RWs and Panarin is your 1LW.

Whoever we draft this year

Lucas Raymond hyyyyype

 

[Tawnos]

Whoever we draft this year

Lucas Raymond hyyyyype

Sure, that's always a possiblity... and I am partial to Alexander Holtz. But until then...

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I agree with most of this, but all analytics really do is verify what happens on the ice.

Does a forward excel in zone entries and shot volume? He’s probably a pretty damn good player if he does. D man who suppressed scoring chances against and is great at zone exits? Sign me up for more of that.

There are exceptions to every rule (franson had strong metrics, but he sucked) but to me, at least numbers are objective. The eye test rarely is and the fact of the matter is most of the time, the eyes administering the test suck.

Most good players look good when you watch them and have good underlying numbers to back that up, and vice versa. The 'analytics' lets you identify potential diamond in the rough players and help you identify what a player might do well and what they might struggle in.

As a example, you have an offensive player who can regularly enter the zone and carry the puck across the line but has struggled to put up any real offensive numbers (Nick Schmaltz). That helped you find a potential diamond in the rough player if he can round out his game. Arizona bet on him in a trade and giving him a nice contract.

Too many people are quick to post a chart and declare players good or bad because of a few stats. That's not to mention that Shot Share stats are subject to Goodhardt's law. Carolina hurricanes seem to be the biggest perpetrators of that.

Goodhart's law - Wikipedia

 

[Crease]

When was the last time Al Trautwig went to a dentist?

Based on his performance last night, his teeth should be the least of his concerns. He does not look well and hope he's getting/gets whatever care he needs.

 

[MetalJaws]

Can someone refresh my memory on what happens to the cap if we bury Smith in the AHL this year? Does that open up enough to sign ADA at his demands just to get this saga behind us?

 

[Raspewtin]

Most good players look good when you watch them and have good underlying numbers to back that up, and vice versa. The 'analytics' lets you identify potential diamond in the rough players and help you identify what a player might do well and what they might struggle in.

As a example, you have an offensive player who can regularly enter the zone and carry the puck across the line but has struggled to put up any real offensive numbers (Nick Schmaltz). That helped you find a potential diamond in the rough player if he can round out his game. Arizona bet on him in a trade and giving him a nice contract.

Too many people are quick to post a chart and declare players good or bad because of a few stats. That's not to mention that Shot Share stats are subject to Goodhardt's law. Carolina hurricanes seem to be the biggest perpetrators of that.

Goodhart's law - Wikipedia

I don't quite understand this critique considering how out of favor box car shot metrics have fallen. Things that used to be revolutionary like dCorsi are kinda jokes now and there are a lot more stats and models that are all encompassing and better predictors (that do not fall to goodhart's law).

 

[RGY]

I would rather deal Buch and keep Kreider...contingent on Kreider being willing to sign a 5 year deal. I think Kreider’s style of game adds more diversity to the other types of players in the lineup moving forward. You have a ton of skill in Panarin, Kakko, and Kravtsov on the wings. You have skill in Zib and Chytil down the middle. You need a mixed bag. Kreider is a guy who goes to the net and is not a perimeter player. Andersson and Lemmy are also of that ilk. Kreider showed last night his speed and physicality is very much there.

I hope Buch has a fantastic year, increasing his trade value so that we can use him as a trade chip to get into the Top 10 of the 1st round. Maybe we package him with our 1st to move up further and get the Center we want for the future. I think Buch at his age would have more value to allow us to get into that top 10. Which we may need to do because IF we make the playoffs youre looking at our own pick being in the 20s.

 

[Irishguy42]

Can someone refresh my memory on what happens to the cap if we bury Smith in the AHL this year? Does that open up enough to sign ADA at his demands just to get this saga behind us?

Max cap relief on buried contracts this season is $1.075M. Everything else beyond that counts towards the cap.

 

[Matt Rentfree]

Can someone refresh my memory on what happens to the cap if we bury Smith in the AHL this year? Does that open up enough to sign ADA at his demands just to get this saga behind us?

Sending down Smith, Kravtsov and one of Nieves/McKegg would leave us with about 1.5M in cap space assuming ADA signed for 1.3-1.4M. BUT that means we start the season with 1 spare forward and 0 spare D. Not a great situation no matter how you slice it. Giving Nams and Spooner 4M each along with all the other crappy contracts (The 3 "S" D men) was not terribly responsible.