Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVIII

[Fitzy]

What's the formula for that? They obviously finished first (31st pick) so what formula gets it from 31 to 27? Not being snarky, I just don't know.

The final 4 spots go to teams that made the east and west conference finals, no matter where they finished in the playoff order.

 

[NYR Viper]

Moving up a full 31 spots in the draft by taking Callahan is a pretty fair price. Especially when you consider the Rangers most likely would trade Callahan at the deadline for a later round pick to a team looking to bolster their bottom line for a playoff run.

So in essence it would be 2/3 of a season of Callahan + 27th pick + 4th '20 for 58th pick

 

[Tawnos]

Moving up a full 31 spots in the draft by taking Callahan is a pretty fair price. Especially when you consider the Rangers most likely would trade Callahan at the deadline for a later round pick to a team looking to bolster their bottom line for a playoff run.

So in essence it would be 2/3 of a season of Callahan + 27th pick + 4th '20 for 58th pick

Just for comparison, the Coyotes moved up 4 spots and sent a 2nd plus Vitale to the Red Wings for the Datysuk dump.

I don't think taking on contracts has quite the value people think it does.

 

[Thirty One]

Just for comparison, the Coyotes moved up 4 spots and sent a 2nd plus Vitale to the Red Wings for the Datysuk dump.

I don't think taking on contracts has quite the value people think it does.

The Datsyuk dump involved a cap hit but no actual money. Coyotes used it to reach the floor. Not comparable.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

What's the formula for that? They obviously finished first (31st pick) so what formula gets it from 31 to 27? Not being snarky, I just don't know.

31 = Cup Winner
30 = Finalist
28+29 = Conference finalists
27 and lower = everyone else, with division winners not reaching the conference finals ranked above every other remaining team

 

[Tawnos]

The Datsyuk dump involved a cap hit but no actual money. Coyotes used it to reach the floor. Not comparable.

I don't think the Lightning really care about the dollars owed Callahan.

 

[haohmaru]

Moving up a full 31 spots in the draft by taking Callahan is a pretty fair price. Especially when you consider the Rangers most likely would trade Callahan at the deadline for a later round pick to a team looking to bolster their bottom line for a playoff run.

So in essence it would be 2/3 of a season of Callahan + 27th pick + 4th '20 for 58th pick

Yeah, maybe. My thought is that I wouldn't play Callahan at all, so it's a 58th for a 27th to me - and I think the draft area gets pretty grey between the late first round and the 2nd round - depending on the draft year of course.

I don't see the Rangers wanting to go that route, but I understand it.

 

[haohmaru]

I don't think the Lightning really care about the dollars owed Callahan.

They've got a lot ($'s and UFA's) of work to do on that back end and need to sign Point. Going to be a tough off season in TB.

 

[Thirty One]

I don't think the Lightning really care about the dollars owed Callahan.

That's a spicy take, but even so, the point is Detroit had little leverage in that trade because it was obvious that moving Datsyuk to the Yotes was mutually beneficial. That's not the case with Callahan.

 

[Tawnos]

They've got a lot ($'s and UFA's) of work to do on that back end and need to sign Point. Going to be a tough off season in TB.

They care quite a lot about the cap hit. I just don't think they care much about the real dollars. It's like 1% of ownership's net worth.

That's a spicy take, but even so, the point is Detroit had little leverage in that trade because it was obvious that moving Datsyuk to the Yotes was mutually beneficial. That's not the case with Callahan.

If Detroit had so little leverage, how come they ended up essentially making the whole thing a wash?

 

[Thirty One]

They care quite a lot about the cap hit. I just don't think they care much about the real dollars. It's like 1% of ownership's net worth.

I don't think rich people are as eager to forgo 1% of their net worth as you think.

If Detroit had so little leverage, how come they ended up essentially making the whole thing a wash?

Meant to say Coyotes had little leverage. And the trade was a wash because both teams wanted Datsyuk's cap charge to move to the Coyotes. The Rangers wouldn't want Callahan's cap charge.

 

[ETTER DE]

Tampa has just over 73 mil committed to 16 players next year. If the cap is 83.5 mil, that gives them about 10 mil to sign at least 6 players. How much is Point going to get coming off a 41 goal, 92 point season? If they buy out Callahan and replace him with a player on an ELC, the net savings is only about 2.4 mil. If they trade him instead, they save about 5 mil and don't have any penalties the following year when they need to re-sign Cernak, Sergachev, Cirelli, Mathieu and Vasilevskiy.

Of course. All I am saying is that they are not gonna give up very much for 2,6 mill in saving nest season and 1,6 the next. With all the picks Rangers have a third round pick or so dont mean much. Its not worth taking on 4,7 mill in salary. Then it must be better to do a deal with Toronto. Take Marleau, buy him out and let Toronto sign him to min.wage. His base salary is 1,25 mill plus 3 mill in bonus. Toronto will save 5,5 mill on the cap. If it is allowed?

 

[Michal]

What's the formula for that? They obviously finished first (31st pick) so what formula gets it from 31 to 27? Not being snarky, I just don't know.

28-31 picks are for Conference Finalists. 27th pick is for division winner with the best regular season record, which does not qualify to CF.

 

[Thirty One]

Of course. All I am saying is that they are not gonna give up very much for 2,6 mill in saving nest season and 1,6 the next. With all the picks Rangers have a third round pick or so dont mean much. Its not worth taking on 4,7 mill in salary. Then it must be better to do a deal with Toronto. Take Marleau, buy him out and let Toronto sign him to min.wage. His base salary is 1,25 mill plus 3 mill in bonus. Toronto will save 5,5 mill on the cap. If it is allowed?

It is allowed as long as Toronto and Marleau negotiate the contract after the Rangers bought him out (or at least don't get caught doing otherwise). Washington did a similar thing with Orpik.

 

[Lion Hound]

...McIlrath

Not really. McIlrath was an Enforcer first. Especially at the Jr level. Seider is not that, which is why i used Kloucek as the comparable.

 

[Tawnos]

I don't think rich people are as eager to forgo 1% of their net worth as you think.

Meant to say Coyotes had little leverage. And the trade was a wash because both teams wanted Datsyuk's cap charge to move to the Coyotes. The Rangers wouldn't want Callahan's cap charge.

I don't think they're eager, but I don't think Vinik would be hard to sell on it. The Lightning are a profitable operation anyway.

I just don't really believe that taking on Callahan is going to end up being much more than moving up 31 spots in the draft, if even that.

 

[Thirty One]

I don't think they're eager, but I don't think Vinik would be hard to sell on it. The Lightning are a profitable operation anyway.

I just don't really believe that taking on Callahan is going to end up being much more than moving up 31 spots in the draft, if even that.

Yeah, their 1st for their 2nd was the price I guessed yesterday, and it wouldn't surprise me if it were a little less than that.

 

[GAGLine]

I don't think they're eager, but I don't think Vinik would be hard to sell on it. The Lightning are a profitable operation anyway.

I just don't really believe that taking on Callahan is going to end up being much more than moving up 31 spots in the draft, if even that.

You brought up the Datsyuk trade to Arizona, but the obvious benefit of that contract to Arizona makes it hard to equate. I think the Bickell trade to Carolina is a better comparison. Bickell had a 4 mil cap hit in 2016, which is roughly comparable to Callahan's 5.8 mil cap hit. Both players with 1 year remaining.

What was the value of Teravainen in that deal? Former 18th overall pick, was only 21 at the time of the trade, coming off a 35 point in 78 game season. Did he still have 18th overall value? Did he have more or less than that? If we assume he had 18th overall value, then Carolina gave up the 50th overall pick in 2016 and the 70th overall pick in 2017 to move up 32 spots. Ironically, both of the picks they gave up were the picks we traded to them for Eric Staal.

We would be moving from 58th to 27th. Not as high in the 1st round, so it shouldn't cost as much. Maybe we throw in a 2020 7th

 

[Ola]

In this draft, I don't like it. Moving from a late 2nd to a late 1st is not enough for taking Callahan. Maybe if they threw in their 3rd as well, I'd do it. But, I like the idea of Volkov, as brought up by another poster, or Raddysh.

The problem is that Callahan’s buy-out is just 2.5m next season and 1.5m the year after that.

Sure Tampa has cap issues and there aren’t a ton of teams out there wanting to take on term. Cally also has a LNTC so some might be flagged too.

But I would be surprised if Tampa was willing to give up too much to move him. Far from convinced that they even would give up their 1st.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

You brought up the Datsyuk trade to Arizona, but the obvious benefit of that contract to Arizona makes it hard to equate. I think the Bickell trade to Carolina is a better comparison. Bickell had a 4 mil cap hit in 2016, which is roughly comparable to Callahan's 5.8 mil cap hit. Both players with 1 year remaining.

What was the value of Teravainen in that deal? Former 18th overall pick, was only 21 at the time of the trade, coming off a 35 point in 78 game season. Did he still have 18th overall value? Did he have more or less than that? If we assume he had 18th overall value, then Carolina gave up the 50th overall pick in 2016 and the 70th overall pick in 2017 to move up 32 spots. Ironically, both of the picks they gave up were the picks we traded to them for Eric Staal.

We would be moving from 58th to 27th. Not as high in the 1st round, so it shouldn't cost as much. Maybe we throw in a 2020 7th

No. We need all of the 2020 7ths to complete Geoff’s 4D chess vision.

 

[Ola]

Trade Kreider for futures.

No long term commitments. The Rangers will do their due diligence talking to player agents and other GM's about making trades. No long term commitments needs to be the end result.



'Don't know what to say': More questions than answers...

TB gave Stralman a 5 year contract. He was always hurt this season. Stralman turns 33 this summer. He wasn't good for the entire term.

The Rangers have talked to Tampa about Callahan's contract. The Rangers can take on the one year contract. Get TB's 1st rounder(27th) in exchange. Give TB back their 2nd. Callahan's $5.8M cap hit and #27 for #58. Callahan has a limited NTC so he has some control. The Rangers are on his list of acceptable teams. Ottawa will be in the market to take on money to reach the floor. Callahan isn't going to Ottawa. Callahan will be good for the Rangers young players. Gorton told Dave Maloney he is looking for experience character guys to help the young guys play the right way.

The Rangers made the right decision trading McDonagh. During the season, there were a few Rangers followers saying the Rangers should have kept Trucker and not traded him. He was awful in the Columbus series. He was the McDonagh from his last 3 Ranger years. Gorton tried to trade him at the 2016 draft to Edmonton after his 1st bad year coming off the serious foot injury. Gorton saw what was happening with McDonagh.

I like JT Miller but he isn't worth the money either. $5.25M. 5 years. TB will look to move him this summer. Yzerman gave him that contract. I heard on the McKenzie podcast with Lebrun and Dreger before the trade deadline that the new TB GM Julien BriseBois isn't as big a Miller fan as Yzerman. They discussed Callahan's contract during that podcast and Dreger brought up the Rangers as a possibility.
The team paying Hayes will realize the same thing. Hayes will get more than 5 years and $5.25M per. Kreider isn't going to be worth his 6 years/$39M.

The Rangers didn't want to pay JT and they traded him. The Rangers didn't want to pay Hayes and they traded him. Kreider is up next. Gorton needs to have his head examined if he pays Kreider.

Yzerman also gave McDonagh a big extension. 6 years and $6.75M per. It would be $7.5M in New York with state income tax. Good luck with that contract. Ages 29-35. Yzerman is a funny guy. He knew he wasn't going to re-sign with TB but he gave out those two contracts before leaving in September. The new GM might have had different ideas. It's already been suggested he isn't a big JT fan.

Yeah, nothing should be read to Gorton making general remarks of how he will keep all doors open and explore options in the off-season.

It’s hard as a GM to get anything done in this league. Gorton has a large staff at his disposal and so this full time. What’s he going to do, close all doors but one in April?

If nothing else, it’s good to be in the loop. Talk with the agents. Talk with players. 1 year from no whichever team signs Panarin might be trading him, while things have changed for us, you never know. A meet and greet could have been a good idea. You never know.

My point is just, if you are 95% about something you don’t tell media. Maybe not if you are 100%.

 

[Ola]

Still, there is some symbolic and strategical values attached to moving a 1st. We just have to wait and see if Tampa is willing to do it, and if Gorts has interest.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

Yeah, nothing should be read to Gorton making general remarks of how he will keep all doors open and explore options in the off-season.

It’s hard as a GM to get anything done in this league. Gorton has a large staff at his disposal and so this full time. What’s he going to do, close all doors but one in April?

If nothing else, it’s good to be in the loop. Talk with the agents. Talk with players. 1 year from no whichever team signs Panarin might be trading him, while things have changed for us, you never know. A meet and greet could have been a good idea. You never know.

My point is just, if you are 95% about something you don’t tell media. Maybe not if you are 100%.

The release explicitly said something about not signing all the big free agents.

 

[wafflepadsave]

The problem is that Callahan’s buy-out is just 2.5m next season and 1.5m the year after that.

Sure Tampa has cap issues and there aren’t a ton of teams out there wanting to take on term. Cally also has a LNTC so some might be flagged too.

But I would be surprised if Tampa was willing to give up too much to move him. Far from convinced that they even would give up their 1st.

Which convinced me that they can keep cally.

 

[haohmaru]

Thank whoever you want that the Rangers didn't cave and sign him for 7.5M/season. <whew>