Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVIII

[TheBloodyNine]

Do we have to give up anything to the Blue Jackets for JD?

No.

 

[effen]

Why should we become the best of 31 franchises? It’s like the belief is that we should win a Cup because it’s ‘our turn’, as long as we don’t screw up? Right? That very ‘we are entitled to it’ notion is why we have one cup in 80 years. No, we aren’t entitled to winning a cup.

You make a top 6-8 organization and then hope variance rolls your way. Hockey has way too much randomness to demand anything else. Both #1 seeds in both conferences lost to #8s if you want recent examples.

As far as Detroit goes, they did lots right but also spiked two #1 Cs in the 6th and 7th rounds aka a metric shitton of random positive variance. If they actually knew anything they would have drafted them earlier than the 6th and 7th rounds for obvious reasons. Random luck.

When they were winning the narrative was they let the kids mature in the AHL for extra time and it yielded benefits. When they were losing they were leaving kids down there too long and they were stagnating. Amazing how that works..... It's all results oriented and retrofit the narrative.

 

[bobbop]

Brooks in checks in tonight with a couple of items; 1. Rangers will be in on Trouba, 2. Zuccarello good chance of signing in Dallas and 3. Fox already pencilled in on Ranger defense. This all suits me just fine.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Brooks in checks in tonight with a couple of items; 1. Rangers will be in on Trouba, 2. Zuccarello good chance of signing in Dallas and 3. Fox already pencilled in on Ranger defense. This all suits me just fine.

I'd be down for this.

 

[Polar Bear]

Brooks in checks in tonight with a couple of items; 1. Rangers will be in on Trouba, 2. Zuccarello good chance of signing in Dallas and 3. Fox already pencilled in on Ranger defense. This all suits me just fine.

I like all of this.

Praise Gorton!

 

[BBKers]

I’m up for:

Columbus - Boston
NYI - Washington
Dallas - St Louis
Las Vegas - Colorado

Dallas vs Vegas in WCF
Washington vs Boston

Vegas vs Washington in finals (repeat)
Vegas wins

We then pick #2, #20, #28, #37 and #58

Trade Tampa’s #58 and a prospect for Ryan Callahan and #23 ( think this is the TBL pick now)
Trade Chris Kreider for a First Rounder and a good prospect
Trade Neil Pionk and a 3rd in 2020 for rights to Adam Fox
Trade Jimmy Vesey for Zach Kassian and a 2020 4th

Pick Kakko at #2
Wheel and deal as seen appropriate and possible at The Draft with our remaining arsenal of upperend picks.

 

[Matt4776]

Brooks in checks in tonight with a couple of items; 1. Rangers will be in on Trouba, 2. Zuccarello good chance of signing in Dallas and 3. Fox already pencilled in on Ranger defense. This all suits me just fine.

The last two would be phenomenal.

On the first point, depending on the cost, I'd love to get Trouba. A year younger than Zibanejad. Will still be in his late prime during our window. Is a #1 RD. Has size, which is unique for our current slew of RDs/RD prospects (even if we include Fox). Would set up our RD stable very nicely going forward in Trouba/Deangelo/Fox. Lundkvist/Keane waiting in the wings if Fox busts and/or Deangelo regresses/the coaching staff doesn't trust Tony (overblown attitude/maturity issues?) long-term/or if he's part of the deal. Puts up points both on the PP and ES.

The cost is what makes this interesting. Wonder who'd go the other way. I don't think they want futures; their window is now.

Their forward corps is pretty solid. Only thing they really need is a #2C assuming they don't re-sign Hayes. We can't provide that for them unless they want Strome.

Defense? Are they satisfied with Kulikov and Chiarot to round out their left side behind Morrissey? They have Niku coming, but both Kulikov and Chiarot are pretty mediocre. Maybe Skjei entices them. Has term. I hope they don't want ADA instead. On the right side, they'll be losing Trouba and also possibly Myers. If Myers walks and Trouba is traded, they'll only have Buff at RD. Even so, I'm not so sure I'd give ADA up. I think his potential is sky high relative to his trade value due to his perceived maturity issues.

It goes without saying that the amount returned in a trade is dependent on how many bidders there are. In how many places is he willing to sign? Ideally, a package based around Skjei+Andersson/Howden or something gets it done. I'd rather Fox play in the AHL for a year, or if Fox is 100% ready, put one of Trouba/Fox/Deangelo/Shatty on their off-side for a year/until injuries hit rather than giving up ADA just because we have Shattenkirk for another one+ years. He's probably gone at the 2020 draft (if he has a good year) or the 2021 TDL.

Contract wise, Trouba is 100% going to ask for and receive a NMC (or a restrictive NTC at least) given how hard he's worked to get out of Canada/Winnipeg. Will surely get 6/7 years, which isn't the end of the world since he's only 25. Curious to see cap hit.

His durability is a slight concern, but I'd much rather take a risk on a 25 year old #1 RD that adds a completely different element to our team than a winger (albeit an elite one) that is turning 28 in the first month of the season. Wingers are our organizational strength currently. Kakko, Kravtsov, Buchnevich, Chytil with 1st line potential. Lemieux. Andersson may convert to wing if he is not traded in this hypothetical. Further, 2020 will provide us with another opportunity to get an elite forward. Much harder to find #1 d-men, never-mind RD. Bust rate exponentially higher.

All in all, I think he'd be an exciting add for both the facet of this fan-base that is more optimistic about our playoff timeline, and for the facet that believes we're still a bit away.

 

[Matt4776]

I’m up for:

Columbus - Boston
NYI - Washington
Dallas - St Louis
Las Vegas - Colorado

Dallas vs Vegas in WCF
Washington vs Boston

Vegas vs Washington in finals (repeat)
Vegas wins

We then pick #2, #20, #28, #37 and #58

Trade Tampa’s #58 and a prospect for Ryan Callahan and #23 ( think this is the TBL pick now)
Trade Chris Kreider for a First Rounder and a good prospect
Trade Neil Pionk and a 3rd in 2020 for rights to Adam Fox
Trade Jimmy Vesey for Zach Kassian and a 2020 4th

Pick Kakko at #2
Wheel and deal as seen appropriate and possible at The Draft with our remaining arsenal of upperend picks.

I believe it's pick #27.

 

[n8]

Do not want Trouba. He's going to cost too much. Too much in assets. Too much in salary cap. After a career season, he's going to eat up like $7M in cap space. And in the end, all he's going to do for our team is hold the puck against the boards. This has Kevin Shattenkirk 2.0 (and with a less impressive resume) written all over it and we also will still have Shattenkirk. If we do get Fox, that'll be 5 RD (unless Pionk goes to Carolina for Fox as someone suggested, then 4 RD which is still a problem).

this is where we are at right now:
Skjei-DeAngelo
Staal-Shattenkirk
Lindgren/Hajek-Pionk

I think we like DeAngelo, Lindgren, and Hajek. We are STUCK with Staal and Shattenkirk unless they are bought out. I don't see anyone's dream pipe schemes dumping either of them happening. We really need to hope Quinn can fix Shattenkirk. That leaves Fox <--> . Pionk as the logical exchange IF IF IF Carolina even wants him. After that, Skjei is the only player/position we could potentially upgrade. We have promising prospects in Miller, Lundkvist (eventually replacing Staal & Shattenkirk?), Rykov, Keane, and Gross.

Our future blueline in 2-3 years might be
Miller-DeAngelo
Hajek-Lunkvist
Lindgren-Fox
In the end, we are either upgrading on one of these players, or we have players (like Trouba for example) taking up their roster spot.

 

[Ola]

You make a top 6-8 organization and then hope variance rolls your way. Hockey has way too much randomness to demand anything else. Both #1 seeds in both conferences lost to #8s if you want recent examples.

As far as Detroit goes, they did lots right but also spiked two #1 Cs in the 6th and 7th rounds aka a metric ****ton of random positive variance. If they actually knew anything they would have drafted them earlier than the 6th and 7th rounds for obvious reasons. Random luck.

When they were winning the narrative was they let the kids mature in the AHL for extra time and it yielded benefits. When they were losing they were leaving kids down there too long and they were stagnating. Amazing how that works..... It's all results oriented and retrofit the narrative.

I want us to aim higher than that, risk is always that you come in below your aim.

Look, I can’t see why we have to have a pretty average hockey operation. One of the worst farm systems. Really bad pro-scouting and so forth. We don’t have insight in many areas, analytics dep., off-ice trainers etc, but do you think we are top 5 of 31 there? That would surprise me. Top 10 probably.

I think it would be good with a president that can help to steer us right in this regard, just improve the organization because others like Toronto are pulling away. In that, the prez shouldn’t force Gorts to start making bad decisions, but improvements can certainly be made.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

I don't understand the infatuation with Trouba. It has been a constant for years on here. He is a fine D-Man, who will very soon be paid far above what he's worth.

If he was an FA, I'd probably be interested, simply because he's young and would be a far better option than EK. That being said, the assets we would have to cough up to get him here wouldn't be worth it and I think he would quickly become disliked by the fan base.

 

[Matt4776]

Do not want Trouba. He's going to cost too much. Too much in assets. Too much in salary cap. After a career season, he's going to eat up like $7M in cap space. And in the end, all he's going to do for our team is hold the puck against the boards. This has Kevin Shattenkirk 2.0 (and with a less impressive resume) written all over it and we also will still have Shattenkirk. If we do get Fox, that'll be 5 RD (unless Pionk goes to Carolina for Fox as someone suggested, then 4 RD which is still a problem).

this is where we are at right now:
Skjei-DeAngelo
Staal-Shattenkirk
Lindgren/Hajek-Pionk

I think we like DeAngelo, Lindgren, and Hajek. We are STUCK with Staal and Shattenkirk unless they are bought out. I don't see anyone's dream pipe schemes dumping either of them happening. We really need to hope Quinn can fix Shattenkirk. That leaves Fox <--> . Pionk as the logical exchange IF IF IF Carolina even wants him. After that, Skjei is the only player/position we could potentially upgrade. We have promising prospects in Miller, Lundkvist (eventually replacing Staal & Shattenkirk?), Rykov, Keane, and Gross.

Our future blueline in 2-3 years might be
Miller-DeAngelo
Hajek-Lunkvist
Lindgren-Fox
In the end, we are either upgrading on one of these players, or we have players (like Trouba for example) taking up their roster spot.

I think 7M for Trouba would be a very fair deal. He had a career year this year because it was the first time he ever had a significant role on the PP. And he was able to play his natural right side. And of course, he stayed healthy. It's not as if he had a random career year with the same usage he always received.

His durability is the big risk. But, Trouba isn't really anything like Shattenkirk. He'd be 4 years younger when we trade for him than Shattenkirk is now. Based on the eye test, he's a much better defender than Shattenkirk and does it against the opposition's top line (advanced stats people, how is Trouba's shot suppression/zone entry defense and other important metrics for his defensive ability?). Shattenkirk is best suited on the second pair while he feasts on the PP. Trouba is an all-situations #1 d-man.

If you're concerned about his durability or the assets he'd cost, that's a valid point. But, he is certainly worth 7M. To compare him to Shattenkirk is disingenuous. He would add a different dimension to the future of our defensive system. This is especially true for our right side, which currently consists of almost exclusively undersized, plus-skating d-men with varying levels of offensive flair. Further, D prospects bust at an extremely high rate. Even those that don't bust normally don't hit their ceilings. In the extremely unlikely event that all of Fox (if we get him), Deangelo, and Lundkvist become quality top-4 dmen (and I can't stress how unlikely that is enough) we can trade one for a ransom. Young top-4 RDs are rare.

You don't pass up on the opportunity to snag a young #1 RD because you have a nice but unspectacular prospect or two that might be good in a few years if all breaks right. And you sure as hell don't pass up the opportunity to snag a young #1 RD because you have a mediocre at best #7 d-man starting on opening day.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

I think 7M for Trouba would be a very fair deal. He had a career year this year because it was the first time he ever had a significant role on the PP. And he was able to play his natural right side. And of course, he stayed healthy. It's not as if he had a random career year with the same usage he always received.

His durability is the big risk. But, Trouba isn't really anything like Shattenkirk. He'd be 4 years younger when we trade for him than Shattenkirk is now. Based on the eye test, he's a much better defender than Shattenkirk and does it against the opposition's top line (advanced stats people, how is Trouba's shot suppression/zone entry defense and other important metrics for his defensive ability?). Shattenkirk is best suited on the second pair while he feasts on the PP. Trouba is an all-situations #1 d-man.

If you're concerned about his durability or the assets he'd cost, that's a valid point. But, he is certainly worth 7M. To compare him to Shattenkirk is disingenuous. He would add a different dimension to the future of our defensive system. This is especially true for our right side, which currently consists of almost exclusively undersized, plus-skating d-men with varying levels of offensive flair. Further, D prospects bust at an extremely high rate. Even those that don't bust normally don't hit their ceilings. In the extremely unlikely event that all of Fox (if we get him), Deangelo, and Lundkvist all become quality top-4 dmen (and I can't stress how unlikely that is enough) we can trade one for a ransom. Young top-4 RDs are rare.

You don't pass up on the opportunity to snag a young #1 RD because you have a nice but unspectacular prospect or two that might be good in a few years if all breaks right. And you sure as hell don't pass up the opportunity to snag a young #1 RD because you have a mediocre at best #7 d-man starting on opening day.

The cap space is not something that bothers me. If he was an FA, I'd want the Rangers to be in on him. He is a good age and will likely be productive through most, if not all, of his next contract. But I do think losing cap space + the assets it would take to acquire him would be too much of a risk to take on.

He is hardly a sure bet. And the injury concerns are also of significant concern to me.

Ignoring the money, what do we think it would take to get Trouba via trade?

 

[Matt4776]

I don't understand the infatuation with Trouba. It has been a constant for years on here. He is a fine D-Man, who will very soon be paid far above what he's worth.

If he was an FA, I'd probably be interested, simply because he's young and would be a far better option than EK. That being said, the assets we would have to cough up to get him here wouldn't be worth it and I think he would quickly become disliked by the fan base.

I think I'd use the word "allure" instead of "infatuation," but I'll bite.

As I've explained, it really boils down to 2 main points:

1. How many RD under the age of 27 or 28 are better than him? I may be forgetting some, but I'm thinking Jones, Klingberg, and Hamilton. 1st pairing right-handed defensemen are really hard to find.

2. He adds a dimension we sorely lack on the right side going forward.

 

[Matt4776]

The cap space is not something that bothers me. If he was an FA, I'd want the Rangers to be in on him. He is a good age and will likely be productive through most, if not all, of his next contract. But I do think losing cap space + the assets it would take to acquire him would be too much of a risk to take on.

He is hardly a sure bet. And the injury concerns are also of significant concern to me.

Ignoring the money, what do we think it would take to get Trouba via trade?

That's the big question. I don't think they'd want a futures heavy package given the state of their team.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

I think I'd use the word "allure" instead of "infatuation," but I'll bite.

As I've explained, it really boils down to 2 main points:

1. How many RD under the age of 27 or 28 are better than him? I may be forgetting some, but I'm thinking Jones, Klingberg, and Hamilton. 1st pairing right-handed defensemen are really hard to find.

2. He adds a dimension we sorely lack on the right side going forward.

Barrie is 27, Hedman is 28. So those 2 guys would be above him. If you're only including guys younger than him, that's a really small group of people. I mean most D-Men take longer to enter the league and there are quite a few RHD older than 27/28 that are better than him.

Still, it's not that he wouldn't be a good piece to add, but he's just not someone I'd be incredibly excited about, especially when he would cost a premium in both $ and assets.

 

[Matt4776]

Barrie is 27, Hedman is 28. So those 2 guys would be above him. If you're only including guys younger than him, that's a really small group of people. I mean most D-Men take longer to enter the league and there are quite a few RHD older than 27/28 that are better than him.

Still, it's not that he wouldn't be a good piece to add, but he's just not someone I'd be incredibly excited about, especially when he would cost a premium in both $ and assets.

Good call on Barrie, but doesn't Hedman play the left side? And Trouba is 25. I went up to 28 (three years older than him), because I figured by the time we're competitive, anyone older than that will likely have already started declining. If you want to go up to 30, you can add Karlsson, Doughty, Subban. Still less than 10 RD better than Trouba.

If you want a guy like Karlsson, you're gonna pay him probably 11M+ per year for 7 years, and he has more significant injury concerns (and is older) than Trouba. Doughty/Jones aren't (and in all likelihood won't become) available. Subban is 30, has 3 years left on his deal, and will then want another contract at age 33 (right when we're hopefully becoming contenders). Maybe Klingberg and Dougie become UFAs at the expiration of their contracts, but it's unlikely. #1 RDs don't become available in their prime often.

In the very rare circumstance that they do become available, it's more likely that they would become available via a Mark Stone-esque sign-and-trade, because losing a #1 RD for nothing is atrocious asset management. This would still cost assets. Karlsson became available because of Ottawa, which is owned/managed historically poorly. And he has injury concerns and will be seeking a 7 year deal at age 29. Trouba is available at age 25 because he's disliked living in Canada/Winnipeg since the day he became an NHLer.

As for the bolded, I agree. I'm definitely not advocating chasing Trouba regardless of cost. I don't see them taking picks and far away prospects. By the time those picks are in their prime, Buff is likely retired/ineffective, Scheifele is on the wrong side of 30, Wheeler would be 36.etc. Their window is now.

I'd build an offer around Skjei. Same age, similar ES output, and has term, which is always important for WPG. If Skjei as the centerpiece doesn't work, there is probably no deal to be made from my perspective.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Do we have to give up anything to the Blue Jackets for JD?

No. I think that was only for coaches, But they changed that rule.

 

[Fugazy]

Continue here: Speculation: - Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX