Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXVII

[duhmetreE]

@EdJovanovski also you just flat out lied in your previous post. Kucherov was 115th in the NHL in playoff turnovers per 60 last year at 2.13 per game. And 17th in total turnovers. The year before he was 8th in total turnovers and 121st in turnovers per 60.

Do you know what a chump move that is?

It doesn't matter how much Kucherov turns the puck over. They both play a similar game, a lot of bad turnovers and 'lazy' plays.

MAJOR difference being, Kucherov is more aggressive/physical and he actually produces when the team needs him. We're up 2-0 right now if Panarin was producing like Kucherov.... Tampa is down 2-0 if Kucherov was producing like Panarin.

That is the key difference

 

[JohnC]

Panarin has been dog shit. Like the worst kind of dog shit that a player can be because he's a top player who isn't only underperforming, hes straight up killing them when hes out there.

He can flip the script by playing better but its amazing the lengths some will go to to defend him. Easily the biggest disappointment in these playoffs for this team.

Whatever injury he was dealing with that had him with a heating pad on the bench in the middle of games and made him miss the two games at the end of the season must still be affecting him. If not, then we’ve got problems.

Anyone that thinks he’s been playing well these playoffs is an idiot TBH.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Whatever injury he was dealing with that had him with a heating pad on the bench in the middle of games and made him miss the two games at the end of the season must still be affecting him. If not, then we’ve got problems.

Anyone that thinks he’s been playing well these playoffs is an idiot TBH.

I have no doubt that he's playing hurt.

What ever the injury is doesn't excuse all of the turnovers though.

 

[duhmetreE]

so much for puck management.

Is it our system?
No puck support?
laziness/effort?

 

[EdJovanovski]

2020-21: Actually it was Chiarot. Kucherov was 17th total, 115th per 60
2019-2019: It was Heiskanen. Kucherov was 8th total and 121st per 60.
2018-19: Pasta was 1st, but 31st per 60.
2017-18: John Carlson. Kuch was 8th and 30th in per 60.

You’re a liar and misrepresenter of facts AND in all of those years, these players averaged less than 3.5 turnovers per 60 so less than HALF as many as Panarin.

Moreover, Kucherov had 15 turnovers in 23 games last playoffs. Panarin has 23 turnovers in 9 games.


If you’re going to argue with me, and you argue from a bad faith position, I’m going to lose respect for you.

You just said “do you know who led the NHL in turnovers”. Not among forwards. Panarin meanwhile leads the ENTIRE league, not just forwards and he has 8 more turnovers in 14 LESS games than Kucherov had in the entire playoffs last year. Kucherov averaged less than 3 per 60. Panarin is over 7.

Just stop.

I'm comparing apples to apples, as you can see by the first turnover chart I posted I was looking at all forwards over the full season, where it was full of stars. Then I just clicked to make it show each playoff series without changing it to include dmen. I'm not comparing forwards to dmen. You yourself ranked yours by total giveaways, not per/60. So I did the same. You got the year wrong as I said Kucherov's was in 19-20, not 20-21.

I'm just saying I think people are being way too down on an obviously injured Panarin who is one of the best players in Ranger history. We haven't had an elite talent like him since Jagr. If we want to look at other stats to get the full picture

Panarins ranking on the team this playoffs is:

1st in Corsi
1st in ixG
2nd in iFF
1st in On-Ice G% (if you exclude Motte as he barely played, if you include Motte, 2nd)
1st in On-Ice Goal Differential
1st in Rebounds Created

If anyone has a subscription to one of the other analytics sites I'd be curious to see his WAR, Player Score, etc I'd wager they are close to the top on the team too.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Wasn't the speculation that Panarin's injury was upper body?

If so it doesn't explain his drop off in elusiveness / inability to be much of a threat with his legs.

 

[JohnC]

I have no doubt that he's playing hurt.

What ever the injury is doesn't excuse all of the turnovers though.

Oh I definitely agree. This isn’t Dan Girardi turning the puck over because his hand is broken, this is a lower back/lower body injury that should have nothing to do with shit passing.

He’s been a detriment out there basically the entire way and an overtime PP goal in game 7 doesn’t change that.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

I'm comparing apples to apples, as you can see by the first turnover chart I posted I was looking at all forwards over the full season, where it was full of stars. Then I just clicked to make it show each playoff series without changing it to include dmen. I'm not comparing forwards to dmen. You yourself ranked yours by total giveaways, not per/60. So I did the same. You got the year wrong as I said Kucherov's was in 19-20, not 20-21.

I'm just saying I think people are being way too down on an obviously injured Panarin who is one of the best players in Ranger history. We haven't had an elite talent like him since Jagr. If we want to look at other stats to get the full picture

Panarins ranking on the team this playoffs is:

1st in Corsi
1st in ixG
2nd in iFF
1st in On-Ice G% (if you exclude Motte as he barely played, if you include Motte, 2nd)
1st in On-Ice Goal Differential
1st in Rebounds Created

If anyone has a subscription to one of the other analytics sites I'd be curious to see his WAR, Player Score, etc I'd wager they are close to the top on the team too.

When you look at quality (i.e. chances, high danger, expected goals) and consider the other half of winning hockey (i.e. against, not just for) it sure tells a different story.

 

[Crease]

The good news, IMO is Drury now gets to assess what this team needs. It's year 1 into our window.

WE DESPERATELY NEED A CAPTAIN AND LEADER. It's evident.

If nothing changes, with how our vets are producing... someone might need to be moved. - Strome is expected at this point. We have all mentioned Kreider from the beginning but with Laffy and Othmann on the way.... There's a chance Panarin's name gets thrown into the mix.

I really want to see Panarin away from Strome and playing with healthy/competent players. He's in his head at this point.

Give the captaincy to Laf. I am confident he will win a Cup in his career.

 

[LokiDog]

I'm comparing apples to apples, as you can see by the first turnover chart I posted I was looking at all forwards over the full season, where it was full of stars. Then I just clicked to make it show each playoff series without changing it to include dmen. I'm not comparing forwards to dmen. You yourself ranked yours by total giveaways, not per/60. So I did the same. You got the year wrong as I said Kucherov's was in 19-20, not 20-21.

I'm just saying I think people are being way too down on an obviously injured Panarin who is one of the best players in Ranger history. We haven't had an elite talent like him since Jagr. If we want to look at other stats to get the full picture

Panarins ranking on the team this playoffs is:

1st in Corsi
1st in ixG
2nd in iFF
1st in On-Ice G% (if you exclude Motte as he barely played, if you include Motte, 2nd)
1st in On-Ice Goal Differential
1st in Rebounds Created

If anyone has a subscription to one of the other analytics sites I'd be curious to see his WAR, Player Score, etc I'd wager they are close to the top on the team too.

Proving only that analytics are a broken and incomplete way of judging performance. And you are still dodging my question. What are you arguing? That Kucherov having the most turnovers among forwards with 15 in 23 games means it’s normal and acceptable for Panarin to have 23 in 9 games? That 2.7 turnovers per 60 and 7 turnovers per 60 are “apples to apples”?

Panarin is playing like ass cheeks. It’s really that simple.

 

[duhmetreE]

Give the captaincy to Laf. I am confident he will win a Cup in his career.

I think it's evident he's the future Captain.

Do they give it to him pre-emptively? Gallant couldn't use him as a whipping boy anymore

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Wasn't the speculation that Panarin's injury was upper body?

If so it doesn't explain his drop off in elusiveness / inability to be much of a threat with his legs.

He had a great rush up the ice yesterday in the 3rd so that's still there.

He straight up pulled away from taking a bump to get the puck out of the zone yesterday which I can even excuse if he's playing through a ton of pain right now. All of the turnovers how ever, have nothing to do with him being hurt. No one is forcing him to make high risk, low percentage plays. The shift after said rush up ice, he won a board battle and came away with the puck (they had decent zone time in this shift.) He proceeded to get flushed out by the blue line and instead of throwing the puck in deep and keeping the pressure going, he made a dumb pass at the blue line that wasn't really close to connecting to anyone and killed any of the momentum they had going there.

I don't need him to even be a superstar. If he had just played safe instead of trying to win the cup on every shift in the middle of the 2nd round we're at worst tied 1-1 going home. It was him being an idiot in the OZ in game 1 that eventually led to Carolina getting the puck back on the shift that they eventually tied the game on. Granted, there was ALOT more that went wrong on this shift from his turnover onwards, but it started with him and continued with him failing to get the puck out of his own end not once, but twice.

 

[Chalfdiggity3]

I really want to like Chytils game but I always come back to his suspect game IQ and vision.

IF we re-sign Copp.... Who's the other middle6 center? Do you stay with Chytil? Do you look to find a stronger 2way fit?

Personally i like chyl alot but he isnt a center. He either needs to be moved to wing and tried there. If there is no room for him then id say lets deal him, nils, and our 1st for a center. Or just sign Stasny. But i cant go back with the same centers on the team right now. We neeed guys who can win faceoffs

 

[EdJovanovski]

When you look at quality (i.e. chances, high danger, expected goals) and consider the other half of winning hockey (i.e. against, not just for) it sure tells a different story.

Isn't Corsi% inherently measuring for vs against? His Corsi% is the highest on the team in the playoffs, not just his CF. For generating high danger chances he is top 4 in every category too IIRC

 

[duhmetreE]

Personally i like chyl alot but he isnt a center. He either needs to be moved to wing and tried there. If there is no room for him then id say lets deal him, nils, and our 1st for a center. Or just sign Stasny. But i cant go back with the same centers on the team right now. We neeed guys who can win faceoffs

I know it would be controversial but Toews makes a lot of sense

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I know it would be controversial but Toews makes a lot of sense

No f*** that guy.

Plus his game has fallen pretty hard.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Proving only that analytics are a broken and incomplete way of judging performance. And you are still dodging my question. What are you arguing? That Kucherov having the most turnovers among forwards with 15 in 23 games means it’s normal and acceptable for Panarin to have 23 in 9 games? That 2.7 turnovers per 60 and 7 turnovers per 60 are “apples to apples”?

Panarin is playing like ass cheeks. It’s really that simple.

I'm arguing that his turnovers are a statistical outlier and partially bad luck. I'm sure there are sample sizes like this of any superstars career where they have a wacky bad amount of turnovers or another stat they were awful in. If we went on to play 20 games that rate would go way down, I would think. And that turnovers aren't the most important stat as good players typically turn it over more than bad players.

I don't think he has played good, especially by Panarin standards. But I think if you swapped jerseys with one of your kids people would be focusing on the flash he's showing, the offense generated and the stats. Throughout this entire season fans have bitched about him in nearly every GDT on his way to yet another 100+ pace pt season. Then I click on the opposing teams GDT and everyone is fawning over him and saying how unfair it is that the Rangers get elite talent like that from the sky.

But he is hurt and I don't get this argument that well he didn't hurt his brain so why is he playing stupid? You play hockey yourself I'm sure you'd agree you make worse decisions when playing injured. You have less time and space when injured

 

[LokiDog]

I'm arguing that his turnovers are a statistical outlier and partially bad luck. I'm sure there are sample sizes like this of any superstars career where they have a wacky bad amount of turnovers or another stat they were awful in. If we went on to play 20 games that rate would go way down, I would think. And that turnovers aren't the most important stat as good players typically turn it over more than bad players.

I don't think he has played good, especially by Panarin standards. But I think if you swapped jerseys with one of your kids people would be focusing on the flash he's showing, the offense generated and the stats. Throughout this entire season fans have bitched about him in nearly every GDT on his way to yet another 100+ pace pt season. Then I click on the opposing teams GDT and everyone is fawning over him and saying how unfair it is that the Rangers get elite talent like that from the sky.

But he is hurt and I don't get this argument that well he didn't hurt his brain so why is he playing stupid? You play hockey yourself I'm sure you'd agree you make worse decisions when playing injured. You have less time and space when injured

I am vehemently disagreeing with your take then. The turnovers are not bad luck. They are bad play. Maybe the reason people bitch about him despite the points is because he leaves a lot lacking when he isn’t picking up his secondary assist on a Fox/Kreider connection. Yes, that’s simplifying it. Panarin refuses to play any semblance of fundamental hockey. He wants to freelance and do his thing, whether it hurts or helps the team. I’d personally have a more pedestrian point total from a guy who is actually willing to do the things that matter.

You can worship the slick hands and the gaudy point totals. I’ll take a Ryan O’Reilly or Gabe Landeskog personally. You wanna win playoff games or Art Ross trophies? Highlight of the year?

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Isn't Corsi% inherently measuring for vs against? His Corsi% is the highest on the team in the playoffs, not just his CF. For generating high danger chances he is top 4 in every category too IIRC

Among NYR forwards (including Motte but excluding Brodzinski, Goodrow, Hunt) at 5v5 (score/venue adjusted):

5th in CF%
8th in SCF %
8th in HDCF %
7th in xGF %

IMO, not enough for $11.6M.

He should get a bit of a pass for his likely injury, for sure. I could easily be being too hard on him in that regard.

And he is definitely ahead of others who we should expect a lot from (looking at you Zibanejad line). Though the Zibanejad line should get a bit of a pass for spending a ton of time going against Crosby who dominated and is simply a top all-time player.

He had a great rush up the ice yesterday in the 3rd so that's still there.

He straight up pulled away from taking a bump to get the puck out of the zone yesterday which I can even excuse if he's playing through a ton of pain right now. All of the turnovers how ever, have nothing to do with him being hurt. No one is forcing him to make high risk, low percentage plays. The shift after said rush up ice, he won a board battle and came away with the puck (they had decent zone time in this shift.) He proceeded to get flushed out by the blue line and instead of throwing the puck in deep and keeping the pressure going, he made a dumb pass at the blue line that wasn't really close to connecting to anyone and killed any of the momentum they had going there.

I don't need him to even be a superstar. If he had just played safe instead of trying to win the cup on every shift in the middle of the 2nd round we're at worst tied 1-1 going home. It was him being an idiot in the OZ in game 1 that eventually led to Carolina getting the puck back on the shift that they eventually tied the game on. Granted, there was ALOT more that went wrong on this shift from his turnover onwards, but it started with him and continued with him failing to get the puck out of his own end not once, but twice.

Good stuff, appreciate the detail.

 

[EdJovanovski]

I am vehemently disagreeing with your take then. The turnovers are not bad luck. They are bad play. Maybe the reason people bitch about him despite the points is because he leaves a lot lacking when he isn’t picking up his secondary assist on a Fox/Kreider connection. Yes, that’s simplifying it. Panarin refuses to play any semblance of fundamental hockey. He wants to freelance and do his thing, whether it hurts or helps the team. I’d personally have a more pedestrian point total from a guy who is actually willing to do the things that matter.

Do you think he is playing injured?

I think Gallant is largely getting out-coached and not putting us in a position to succeed. I obviously don't think Panarin is playing great, but he's not going anywhere anytime soon; especially in the middle of the playoffs. So what should we do? Copp is probably injured as well as he is skating in quicksand. Panarin needs someone doing dirty work and creating space for him. Don't you think the lineup should be changed to put players in a position to succeed? Maybe put Motte on Panarins other wing, as he is one of the only players this playoffs with a motor

 

[duhmetreE]

No f*** that guy.

Plus his game has fallen pretty hard.

He had a really bad 3/4ths but his game got a little better at the end.

He wouldn't be 'the guy' but we'd hope he could fill a Jordan Staal type role for us

 

[haohmaru]

To give it away you need to have the puck a lot, it's usually always elite players who are among the top in that category

Look at all these bums!

I don't give a shit about that chart, Panarin has been making brutal decisions with the puck in this series. I mean E-G-R-E-G-I-O-U-S

 

[WojtekWolski86]

Do you think he is playing injured?

I think Gallant is largely getting out-coached and not putting us in a position to succeed. I obviously don't think Panarin is playing great, but he's not going anywhere anytime soon; especially in the middle of the playoffs. So what should we do? Copp is probably injured as well as he is skating in quicksand. Panarin needs someone doing dirty work and creating space for him. Don't you think the lineup should be changed to put players in a position to succeed? Maybe put Motte on Panarins other wing, as he is one of the only players this playoffs with a motor

The lineup has been flawed since Goodrow got hurt. Motte has been a huge spark and the games where Turk recognized that he was double shifting Motte in the top 6 "for defense" when in reality Vatrano hasn't played to top 6 quality since game 2.

Kreider Ziba Copp
Bread Strome Motte
Kid line
Hunt Rooney Vatrano

Let the top 6 open it up more and take chances. Motte can cover down for Strome's laziness and be the first to the puck on forechecking.

I also would scratch Schneider, put in Jones and move Braun back on his natural side. You are only playing them under 8 minutes anyways, might as well get a puck mover to defuse their dump and chase.

However, Turk might be more stubborn than AV and Quinn combined. Too much loyalty to a 35 yr old enforcer with 2 fights all season.

 

[Savant]

I know it would be controversial but Toews makes a lot of sense

Absolutely not.

What they should be doing is putting a full court press on to get Bergeron here. Sure it’s unlikely but stranger things have happened. That’s the move to make.

 

[Hire Sather]

It was clear Reaves would be locked into the lineup when his contract was immediately extended for no reason

It was clear Reaves would be locked into the lineup when his contract was immediately extended for no reason