Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXVII

[RangersFan1994]

Habs get Nils Lundkvist
Rangers get Luke Tuch

 

[Circus86]

Just for the record, Chytil is far from untouchable in my book. I would trade him for Caulfield.

Chytil get a ton of praise for his POs. He is a center and had 2 assists in 20 games. He never set up his wingers. To me he proved that he would be an awesome 4th line center and perhaps an OK 3rd line center.

Sure, we have done a piss poor job developing, the kid has insane character, he might turn into something he hasn’t showed yet. But…

You don't get a Caufield for a Chytil. No way. You want Caufield, MTL will want Laf.

 

[GAGLine]

I really think the best course of action still is try to add Stastny on a 1 year deal to bolster overall center depth with Chytil basically trying out at 2C for the 1st half of the season or dealing Nils for a young center that's also under control cap wise. They can always try and bolster 2C during the season and towards the deadline but I just don't see the path to signing a Copp, Strome, Trocheck, etc without seriously hamstringing this team next season when it comes to locking up the future.

This is probably the most responsible solution. Save the cap space for next summer and give the kids a chance to build on what they did in the playoffs. If we take a small step back, so be it. That may be unavoidable in any case since we can't afford to bring everyone back, and rentals can always be added at the deadline to shore up weaknesses.

I have yet to see one single poster on the this forum present a solution for signing Andrew Copp and navigating the cap situation in 23-24. If you suggest signing Copp, please explain what happens the following season. There is just no way we can make it work without moving multiple young assets already in the lineup. Signing Copp means goodbye to 2 of Lafreniere, Miller, Lindgren, Kakko, Chytil.

The situation isn't as grim as you paint it.

Miller and Laf would have to get bridge deals, and Chytil would get a raise, but not a huge one. Kakko would also get a bridge deal this summer, similar to Chytil's current contract. The cap will go up by 1 mil in 23-24, we'll have 3.4 mil in dead cap coming off the books, and Reaves will be gone. If we buy out Nemeth this year, his cap hit in 23-24 would be zero, so no worries there. Kravtsov (assuming he isn't traded) isn't likely to earn a huge raise playing mostly 3rd line minutes next year, and we have ELCs/cheaper players who may be able to fill spots. Othmann and Cuylle. Jones, Lundkvist and Robertson, whichever ones don't get traded. It would be tight but doable.

That said, we may be better off long term by not signing Copp and just letting the kids play in the top 6. If we can sign someone like Stastny to be the 3C/insurance 2C for 1 year, that's even better. He's coming off a 1 year deal @ 3.75 mil, so he shouldn't be averse to taking a similar deal again, and he might accept an even lower AAV for the chance to play with an up and coming team.

If we sign Copp, either Chytil is relegated to the 3rd line for at least 3 years, he's eventually traded, or Copp becomes a very expensive 3rd liner. At this point, as much as I like Copp, I think I'd rather role the dice and see what Chytil can do as the 2C. If it doesn't work out, we will have opportunities down the road to adjust.

Habs get Nils Lundkvist
Rangers get Luke Tuch

Why would we want another LW?

 

[QJL]

CapFriendly is very easy to use. It is very doable to keep Copp, Braun, and Motte, depending on what the latter 2 want. And if Motte prices himself out there are other options similar to him.

Copp at $5.25 x 5
Motte at $2.5 x 3
Braun at $1 x 1
C.Lindgren at $900k x 2 — or Holtby/Halak for slightly more.
Kakko at $2 x 2 —- less than Chytil
Jones promoted
Nemeth traded

If really needed, you can move Hunt and also have Jones start in the AHL for the first month or so as cap space accumulates.

It is doable.

Yes, we all know 2022-2023 is fine. Reread my post. This screws us for 2023-2024. If you’re signing Copp, please explain your strategy then. Use CapFriendly or a calculator or hand math.

The situation isn't as grim as you paint it.

Miller and Laf would have to get bridge deals, and Chytil would get a raise, but not a huge one. Kakko would also get a bridge deal this summer, similar to Chytil's current contract. The cap will go up by 1 mil in 23-24, we'll have 3.4 mil in dead cap coming off the books, and Reaves will be gone. If we buy out Nemeth this year, his cap hit in 23-24 would be zero, so no worries there. Kravtsov (assuming he isn't traded) isn't likely to earn a huge raise playing mostly 3rd line minutes next year, and we have ELCs/cheaper players who may be able to fill spots. Othmann and Cuylle. Jones, Lundkvist and Robertson, whichever ones don't get traded. It would be tight but doable.

That said, we may be better off long term by not signing Copp and just letting the kids play in the top 6. If we can sign someone like Stastny to be the 3C/insurance 2C for 1 year, that's even better. He's coming off a 1 year deal @ 3.75 mil, so he shouldn't be averse to taking a similar deal again, and he might accept an even lower AAV for the chance to play with an up and coming team.

If we sign Copp, either Chytil is relegated to the 3rd line for at least 3 years, he's eventually traded, or Copp becomes a very expensive 3rd liner. At this point, as much as I like Copp, I think I'd rather role the dice and see what Chytil can do as the 2C. If it doesn't work out, we will have opportunities down the road to adjust.

Show the math. I’ve done it with the scenario you described, using short term best case contracts for Laf, Miller, and Chytil. There is no way we’re looking at less than 88M spend in 2023-2024 which is about 4M over the cap in a best case scenario. We have trouble ahead even if we don’t sign Copp. With him it’s impossible without losing multiple current roster young players on second contracts.

 

[RGY]

Yes, we all know 2022-2023 is fine. Reread my post. This screws us for 2023-2024. If you’re signing Copp, please explain your strategy then. Use CapFriendly or a calculator or hand math.


Show the math. I’ve done it with the scenario you described, using short term best case contracts for Laf, Miller, and Chytil. There is no way we’re looking at less than 88M spend in 2023-2024 which is about 4M over the cap in a best case scenario. We have trouble ahead even if we don’t sign Copp. With him it’s impossible without losing multiple current roster young players on second contracts.

I have looked at past next year. They have the buyout money coming off. Reaves coming off the books. A likely cap increase of at least $1 million. They can bridge Miller and Laf, or at least one of them. How much of a raise do you think Chytil is getting?? He would have to a dramatic increase in production. And yes they could move Lindgren as the cap casualty that would allow for possibly 2-3 ELCs to get on the roster full time such as Othmann and Cuylle. Also have you thoroughly looked at the free agent class for 2023? Who are the potential cheap vets that are looking to win a cup? This is what teams like Tampa and Colorado have done.

Some of you worry way more about the cap than you should. We have been down this road before. We have not been significantly burdened by the buyouts and bad contracts. They have found ways to make it work and ice a team every year. There isn’t some magic wand that will get you a cost controlled young 2C. Copp is experienced and knows the organization and room now. Bring him and Motte back.

 

[bhamill]

Caufield is about as untouchable as they come in Montreal. Who would we be giving up? It would basically have to start with Laf.

You don't get a Caufield for a Chytil. No way. You want Caufield, MTL will want Laf.

Start with. Hysterical. If Montreal values him that highly they can certainly keep him. The only GM in hockey who would think Laf for Caufield even straight up is a good trade would be Montreal’s hahah. And they do it in half a heartbeat.
On the other hand thinking Chytil would get Cole is crazy too. I would not trade Kakko for him, but at least I can see the argument.

 

[QJL]

I have looked at past next year. They have the buyout money coming off. Reaves coming off the books. A likely cap increase of at least $1 million. They can bridge Miller and Laf, or at least one of them. How much of a raise do you think Chytil is getting?? He would have to a dramatic increase in production. And yes they could move Lindgren as the cap casualty that would allow for possibly 2-3 ELCs to get on the roster full time such as Othmann and Cuylle. Also have you thoroughly looked at the free agent class for 2023? Who are the potential cheap vets that are looking to win a cup? This is what teams like Tampa and Colorado have done.

Some of you worry way more about the cap than you should. We have been down this road before. We have not been significantly burdened by the buyouts and bad contracts. They have found ways to make it work and ice a team every year. There isn’t some magic wand that will get you a cost controlled young 2C. Copp is experienced and knows the organization and room now. Bring him and Motte back.

Seriously. Show the math. Pick your most reasonable contracts for Laf, Miller, and Chytil. Nobody here seems to be doing it.

Every other roster spot ELC and cheap vet besides the obvious roster players. Still doesn’t work.

 

[GAGLine]

Show the math. I’ve done it with the scenario you described, using short term best case contracts for Laf, Miller, and Chytil. There is no way we’re looking at less than 88M spend in 2023-2024 which is about 4M over the cap in a best case scenario. We have trouble ahead even if we don’t sign Copp. With him it’s impossible without losing multiple current roster young players on second contracts.

That's a 21 man roster with nearly 1.5 mil in cap space left. We could add a cheap spare forward as well, unless my numbers are off, which is entirely possible. Garand might not be the backup, but we can sign a vet backup for a similar cost. Maybe it's Jones instead of Robertson, Blais instead of Motte, and maybe it's a cheap vet dman instead of Scanlin, but again, the costs are going to be similar.

And again, I'm not advocating this. I'm just saying that we can make it work. It's not without risk, though. If Laf scores 60+ next year, a 2 year, 3 mil deal isn't going to cut it. Miller is less likely to have an offensive breakout, as he's not going to get PP1 time as long as Fox is healthy, and maybe not even if he isn't healthy. A bridge deal for him will likely be close to what Lindgren got. In any case, I don't see it being 88 mil unless you think Laf and Miller are getting 5-6 mil each. It's extremely unlikely that both would get that type of number on a 1 or 2 year deal.

If we don't sign Copp, then we've got more money to work with in re-signing Laf and Miller. But at the same time, Chytil is going to get a bigger role and will likely then be in line for a bigger raise, so the money could still get tight in that scenario.

 

[Circus86]

View attachment 561323

That's a 21 man roster with nearly 1.5 mil in cap space left. We could add a cheap spare forward as well, unless my numbers are off, which is entirely possible. Garand might not be the backup, but we can sign a vet backup for a similar cost. Maybe it's Jones instead of Robertson, Blais instead of Motte, and maybe it's a cheap vet dman instead of Scanlin, but again, the costs are going to be similar.

And again, I'm not advocating this. I'm just saying that we can make it work. It's not without risk, though. If Laf scores 60+ next year, a 2 year, 3 mil deal isn't going to cut it. Miller is less likely to have an offensive breakout, as he's not going to get PP1 time as long as Fox is healthy, and maybe not even if he isn't healthy. A bridge deal for him will likely be close to what Lindgren got. In any case, I don't see it being 88 mil unless you think Laf and Miller are getting 5-6 mil each. It's extremely unlikely that both would get that type of number on a 1 or 2 year deal.

If we don't sign Copp, then we've got more money to work with in re-signing Laf and Miller. But at the same time, Chytil is going to get a bigger role and will likely then be in line for a bigger raise, so the money could still get tight in that scenario.

Tough decision. Either sign a 2C and bridge Laf/Miller or don't sign Copp and give Laf and Miller long term extensions. Not really sure which one is the better option.

 

[QJL]

This miracle of hometown discounts, absent offer sheets, and ignorance of the free agent market would still come in at $85.599M in 23-24.

Roster

Panarin 11.64
Zibanejad 8.5
Kreider 6.5
Copp 5.25
Lafreniere 4*
Goodrow 3.64
Chytil 3.5
Motte 2.5
Kakko 2*
Kravtsov 1
Othmann .894
Cuylle .828
Minimum .750

Fox 9.5
Trouba 8
Miller 4.5*
Lindgren 3
Vet 1
Jones 1
Schneider .925

Shesterkin 5.67
Goalie 1

View attachment 561323

That's a 21 man roster with nearly 1.5 mil in cap space left. We could add a cheap spare forward as well, unless my numbers are off, which is entirely possible. Garand might not be the backup, but we can sign a vet backup for a similar cost. Maybe it's Jones instead of Robertson, Blais instead of Motte, and maybe it's a cheap vet dman instead of Scanlin, but again, the costs are going to be similar.

And again, I'm not advocating this. I'm just saying that we can make it work. It's not without risk, though. If Laf scores 60+ next year, a 2 year, 3 mil deal isn't going to cut it. Miller is less likely to have an offensive breakout, as he's not going to get PP1 time as long as Fox is healthy, and maybe not even if he isn't healthy. A bridge deal for him will likely be close to what Lindgren got. In any case, I don't see it being 88 mil unless you think Laf and Miller are getting 5-6 mil each. It's extremely unlikely that both would get that type of number on a 1 or 2 year deal.

If we don't sign Copp, then we've got more money to work with in re-signing Laf and Miller. But at the same time, Chytil is going to get a bigger role and will likely then be in line for a bigger raise, so the money could still get tight in that scenario.

31 NHL teams will have offer sheets ready for Laf and Miller at those numbers.

Miller is already a no brainer 5M+ player.

 

[RGY]

Seriously. Show the math. Pick your most reasonable contracts for Laf, Miller, and Chytil. Nobody here seems to be doing it.

Every other roster spot ELC and cheap vet besides the obvious roster players. Still doesn’t work.

I am not going to do in depth math to pacify your anxiety about something you have no control of and seemingly every year it gets worked out for every team in the league that has a tight cap situation outside of probably Seattle and Arizona which is not really a destination place for free agents.

And you know what maybe the ranges don’t ultimately re-sign copp but if you think they’re not at least entertaining it and trying to make it work the I got a bridge to sell you

 

[QJL]

I am not going to do in depth math to pacify your anxiety about something you have no control of and seemingly every year it gets worked out for every team in the league that has a tight cap situation outside of probably Seattle and Arizona which is not really a destination place for free agents.

And you know what maybe the ranges don’t ultimately re-sign copp but if you think they’re not at least entertaining it and trying to make it work the I got a bridge to sell you

If you’re going to advocate for something, advocate with a complete solution.

Math and logic does not equate to anxiety.

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

I want no part of Caufield. He’s built like a Make-A-Wish kid.

 

[GAGLine]

31 NHL teams will have offer sheets ready for Laf and Miller at those numbers.

Maybe, but based on what we know right now, my numbers aren't unreasonable at all. Neither is currently in line to get the numbers you have suggested, and offer sheets only matter if the player signs them.

Miller put up 20 points in 82 games this year. If he puts up similar offensive numbers next year, I don't see him getting 4.5 mil on a 1 or 2 year deal. Lindgren got 3 mil per on a 3 year deal after putting up 16 points in 51 games. Granted, he had only played 116 games at the time, and Miller should be up over 200 when he gets his new deal, but Lindgren played very important minutes next to Fox. On a 3 year deal, yeah, Miller might get 4.5, but on a 1 or 2 year deal, the AAV will be lower.

And let's remember our history. Lundqvist signed a 1 year deal coming out of his ELC for 4.25 mil, then signed a 6 year extension the following February at 6.875 mil per year. So there is precedent for a player taking less on a 1 year deal and then signing a longer extension. We could potentially do something similar with Laf and/or Miller.

But for the sake of argument, let say they do both get the numbers you suggest. It isn't unreasonable to think that we could move Goodrow with 4 years left on his contract. He's a good player and his cap hit isn't that high. He has a 15 team NTC.

Barring a trade, Goodrow could be bought out. It certainly wouldn't be ideal, but it would save us significant money in 23-24 and 24-25. These would be his cap hits from the 23-24 season to the 30-31 season:

Only one of those years is really bad.

Also keep in mind that it isn't impossible to trade either Trouba or Kreider, despite their NMCs. They wouldn't be the first players to waive their NMC and accept a trade. We might get raked over the coals on any deal for one of them, but it's still a possibility.

In any event, we likely aren't going to agree on the numbers, and the picture is likely to look very different a year from now. Neither of us can really predict what is going to happen, which is why I'm currently leaning toward not re-signing Copp, as it's definitely the safer option. So we are in agreement there.

 

[RagFinMet]

We need to save money
Our cap situation is in bad shape as u all know in 23-24
I'm signing motte and kk only
Playing goodrow as a top 9 C
Its the most responsible solution til we can unload pan or trouba in the summer of '24
I believe we make the POs with goody as a 3C
We can always explore options at the tdl again if the right player is there to help make another run

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

This miracle of hometown discounts, absent offer sheets, and ignorance of the free agent market would still come in at $85.599M in 23-24.

Roster

Panarin 11.64
Zibanejad 8.5
Kreider 6.5
Copp 5.25
Lafreniere 4*
Goodrow 3.64
Chytil 3.5
Motte 2.5
Kakko 2*
Kravtsov 1
Othmann .894
Cuylle .828
Minimum .750

Fox 9.5
Trouba 8
Miller 4.5*
Lindgren 3
Vet 1
Jones 1
Schneider .925

Shesterkin 5.67
Goalie 1



31 NHL teams will have offer sheets ready for Laf and Miller at those numbers.

Miller is already a no brainer 5M+ player.

I don't disagree with your overall point but you need to stop worrying about offer sheets. It'd be wise to keep some of that space open for sure (some of your numbers are high, but the numbers on some of the pending RFA's are also probably low), but some of you just keep acting like it's a foregone conclusion that one is coming. No one is throwing an offer sheet at the Rangers.

We also need to come to grips with Lindgren not being here beyond this upcoming season. They'll move him to make space.

Also don't underestimate the likely hood of some LTIR f***ery.

 

[QJL]

I don't disagree with your overall point but you need to stop worrying about offer sheets. It'd be wise to keep some of that space open for sure (some of your numbers are high, but the numbers on some of the pending RFA's are also probably low), but some of you just keep acting like it's a foregone conclusion that one is coming. No one is throwing an offer sheet at the Rangers.

We also need to come to grips with Lindgren not being here beyond this upcoming season. They'll move him to make space.

Also don't underestimate the likely hood of some LTIR f***ery.

I think if we have 6M to sign Lafreniere and Miller and they show any progression whatsoever, there is no way those two come in under that. You can’t sign performing players of their quality to contracts that low, even on bridge deals. I can’t see a world where K’Andre Miller signs for 3M. 20 point production doesn’t matter. There will be a line of teams looking to sign this guy to a 7-8 year 6M+ contract. He was excellent all season and in the playoffs playing huge minutes against top players.

I’ve already made peace with losing a contract like Lindgren. The question is Lindgren or Lindgren + Chytil/Kakko. That’s what the Copp signing means.

Maybe, but based on what we know right now, my numbers aren't unreasonable at all. Neither is currently in line to get the numbers you have suggested, and offer sheets only matter if the player signs them.

Miller put up 20 points in 82 games this year. If he puts up similar offensive numbers next year, I don't see him getting 4.5 mil on a 1 or 2 year deal. Lindgren got 3 mil per on a 3 year deal after putting up 16 points in 51 games. Granted, he had only played 116 games at the time, and Miller should be up over 200 when he gets his new deal, but Lindgren played very important minutes next to Fox. On a 3 year deal, yeah, Miller might get 4.5, but on a 1 or 2 year deal, the AAV will be lower.

And let's remember our history. Lundqvist signed a 1 year deal coming out of his ELC for 4.25 mil, then signed a 6 year extension the following February at 6.875 mil per year. So there is precedent for a player taking less on a 1 year deal and then signing a longer extension. We could potentially do something similar with Laf and/or Miller.

But for the sake of argument, let say they do both get the numbers you suggest. It isn't unreasonable to think that we could move Goodrow with 4 years left on his contract. He's a good player and his cap hit isn't that high. He has a 15 team NTC.

Barring a trade, Goodrow could be bought out. It certainly wouldn't be ideal, but it would save us significant money in 23-24 and 24-25. These would be his cap hits from the 23-24 season to the 30-31 season:

View attachment 561330

Only one of those years is really bad.

Also keep in mind that it isn't impossible to trade either Trouba or Kreider, despite their NMCs. They wouldn't be the first players to waive their NMC and accept a trade. We might get raked over the coals on any deal for one of them, but it's still a possibility.

In any event, we likely aren't going to agree on the numbers, and the picture is likely to look very different a year from now. Neither of us can really predict what is going to happen, which is why I'm currently leaning toward not re-signing Copp, as it's definitely the safer option. So we are in agreement there.

Thanks for seeing the logic!

We need to assume the young players will progress. Signing Copp and expecting to keep everyone next to him is an extremely pessimistic outlook of young players’ upcoming season.

I really hope we avoid buyouts altogether.

 

[rangers1314]

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

This summer and next summer the trade-offs involved with "winning while rebuilding" are going to really come to a head, that's for sure

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Conditioning needs to be a big focal point this offseason. The Rangers crashed and burned after Game 3 against Tampa and never could bounce back. Even Tampa was sitting back and trapping and were only looking to counterpunch from Game 3 on. What sucked is that it worked because the Rangers were just as gassed. As cliche as it sounds, they didn't get the puck deep and keep the puck and let Tampa back in the series on some pretty fortunate bounces and plain bad defensive zone play due to fatigue.

If Panarin comes back into camp out of shape again he should sit until he's in game shape. No excuses now. The window is open.

Playing 20 intense playoff games in 40 days including 6 elimination games was the real reason they were gassed.

 

[McRanger92]

I always thought Naslund would make a good Ranger. I wish he’d stayed longer. I wish we’d had a better coach for him and Gaborik.

Swedes historically do very well in NY

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think if we have 6M to sign Lafreniere and Miller and they show any progression whatsoever, there is no way those two come in under that. You can’t sign performing players of their quality to contracts that low, even on bridge deals. I can’t see a world where K’Andre Miller signs for 3M. 20 point production doesn’t matter. There will be a line of teams looking to sign this guy to a 7-8 year 6M+ contract. He was excellent all season and in the playoffs playing huge minutes against top players.

I’ve already made peace with losing a contract like Lindgren. The question is Lindgren or Lindgren + Chytil/Kakko. That’s what the Copp signing means.



Thanks for seeing the logic!

We need to assume the young players will progress. Signing Copp and expecting to keep everyone next to him is an extremely pessimistic outlook of young players’ upcoming season.

I really hope we avoid buyouts altogether.

They can spend to the cap this year and STILL have 10+ in space next year. I'm not seeing where the solid 6 to sign the 2 of them is coming from. Cap goes up a mill next year (as it has the last few) and you shed Lindgren, then that number turns into 14 - Way easier to fit the 2 of them in with this space.

Of course thats just the two of them. Now if Miller, Laf AND Chytil take big steps forward, 14 won't be enough. This is where I can get behind not doing anything crazy for long term (One year deals are fine.) Beyond that wave of players, we should be pretty comfortable as guys will need raises that will either be insignificant or when the cap will start rising again/players have their no trade protection become less restrictive.

I'm not sure Kakko is long for this team either (and I don't agree with it.) You can factor in his numbers too.

 

[McRanger92]

The Rangers need to finish off playoff series in 5 games or less.

The Rangers played 14 games in the first two rounds. The Rangers played every other day with the condensed schedule.

TB had a week off before the Rangers series and it showed after the first two games.

Colorado is the fresher team in the finals. The Avs swept Nashville and Edmonton. The Avs beat the Blues in 6. TB is tired and beat up from the last couple of seasons. TB played a tough 7 game series with Toronto and tough 6 game series with the Rangers.

The PIT series was winnable in 5. Home ice, 2 & 3rd string backups. Couldn’t find a way to win game 1 when they played well. Slow start in Game 3 that they still could’ve won without a stinker from Georgiev. They were the better team the majority of that series. Even the Carolina series would’ve been over in 6 if they win game 1 which they dominated until the last 5.

The experience gained this season will help in future runs.

 

[huerter]

Reilly Smith staying in Vegas. Offseason failed. Will figure out how we pick up the pieces and report back.

 

[IDvsEGO]

We need to save money
Our cap situation is in bad shape as u all know in 23-24
I'm signing motte and kk only
Playing goodrow as a top 9 C
Its the most responsible solution til we can unload pan or trouba in the summer of '24
I believe we make the POs with goody as a 3C
We can always explore options at the tdl again if the right player is there to help make another run

You cant unload panarin at any point. He's got a full NMC throughout his deal. Only NMC/NTC that become movable are CK/Trouba and Goodrow.